Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Animaniac93-98]

Weapons expected to be #1 with $12 million over the 4-day holiday weekend, but Jaws may be #2 with $9.7 million

 

[Disney Irish]

It’s going to get killed by The Mandalorian the following week. WB sent this one out to die.

They must have gotten some internal tracking that indicated it wasn’t going to do well against all the horror movies being released in October, like Black Phone 2.

Probably. But it sure cost less to produce.

You’d think they would have kept it there if it had a lower threshold to hit breakeven. As not much competition in October compared to next May.

Which shows again that studios are thinking less and less about the box office totals.

 

[Disney Irish]

Weapons expected to be #1 with $12 million over the 4-day holiday weekend, but Jaws may be #2 with $9.7 million

And Fantastic Four should cross $500M.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Officially announced at Destination D23…

The official title for Ice Age 6 has been revealed…

Ice Age: Boiling Point

And along with the new title, a new release date for the film was revealed as well now that Disney learned to move it away from Avengers: Doomsday, with the film now set to release in theaters on February 5th, 2027.

 

[Nevermore525]

It’s going to get killed by The Mandalorian the following week. WB sent this one out to die.

There’s that thought, and there’s also WB being content with their results from 2025 so shift the accounting for MK 2 over to 2026

 

[DKampy]

They must have gotten some internal tracking that indicated it wasn’t going to do well against all the horror movies being released in October, like Black Phone 2.


You’d think they would have kept it there if it had a lower threshold to hit breakeven. As not much competition in October compared to next May.

Which shows again that studios are thinking less and less about the box office totals.m

IMO….the first Mortal Kombat must of done well enough on streaming and VOD to warrant a sequel…, I was surprised one was greenlit….. the first did not exactly blow the roof off the box office…. Nor was well received by audiences and critics alike…. Which tells me this was more than a theatrical play

 

[Disney Irish]

IMO….the first Mortal Kombat must of done well enough on streaming and VOD to warrant a sequel…, I was surprised one was greenlit….. the first did not exactly blow the roof off the box office…. Nor was well received by audiences and critics alike…. Which tells me this was more than a theatrical play

Yep, basically just a release for the marketing only. I'd be surprised if it was in theaters longer than a couple weeks, 45 days tops.

 

[Tha Realest]

They must have gotten some internal tracking that indicated it wasn’t going to do well against all the horror movies being released in October, like Black Phone 2.

You mean the stunt casting for Johnny Cage didn’t get the social media juice they were hoping for? (And I really like Urban).

I do think WB is happy with its returns so far this year and punting a loss to next year is the way to go.

 

[Tha Realest]

IMO….the first Mortal Kombat must of done well enough on streaming and VOD to warrant a sequel…, I was surprised one was greenlit….. the first did not exactly blow the roof off the box office…. Nor was well received by audiences and critics alike…. Which tells me this was more than a theatrical play

It was one of those weird Covid era releases where the numbers were inherently fluky. I personally loved it as it felt like a paean to bad 90’s schlock with a bit more effort by the actors and a lot more money for SFX.

Go back and watch the trailer to the original 90’s Mortal Kombat. Do not do so after drinking a Surge because you’ll likely have a cardiac event.

 

[Disney Irish]

You mean the stunt casting for Johnny Cage didn’t get the social media juice they were hoping for? (And I really like Urban).

I do think WB is happy with its returns so far this year and punting a loss to next year is the way to go.

If it was really just about the financials you’d think they’d want to keep it this year in order to better absorb that loss. As we’ve talked about in this thread before the idea is you get one to two blockbusters that do well to absorb any losses of the smaller films in the year. No guarantee those one to two blockbusters happen next year for WB to absorb this loss. This move could be adding just another loss to a string of losses and make 2026 financials even worse. So yeah that doesn’t make any sense.

Which means they are probably doing it for other reasons.

 

[Nevermore525]

F4 up to an estimated $505M

 

[coffeefan]

 

[MisterPenguin]

Summer Box Office Clobbered by Kryptonite: Domestic Revenue Barely Matches Last Year

The May to Labor Day season initially soared, but global grosses took a nosedive as foreign movie ticket sales plunged further and a glut of male-skewing tentpoles battled for scraps in the U.S.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

F4 up to an estimated $505M

View attachment 880582

It’s officially broken even

 

[Nevermore525]

Disney also doing one final week push for Lilo & Stitch that looks to put it ahead of Minecraft as the top grossing at the Domestic Box Office so far. Went from being on 55 screens on Thursday to 2,440 for the weekend.

Earned $1.1M over the 3 day. Sits at $422.9M so still needs another $1M or so to surpass.

 

[BrianLo]

Here’s how Fantastic 4 has slipped week on week had it maintained a more standard tentpole 3X multiple.

1) 218 - 654
2) 368.7 - 670
3) 434.2 - 565.2
4) 468.7 - 537.7

It’ll still do 500 I’d surmise, but it’s slowing way down.

5) 490.1 - 532.9

Though the 3X multiplier is not the course it has been on with the constant deceleration - it had a good week and seems to actually be heading more toward 520 then the 500 I was guessing at last week.


My own commentary is a positively reviewed movie with a great opening weekend, disappointing international support and a generally bad run. Sometimes the way you finish defines things more than you start. But I think this one has hit that anemic watermark of getting a team up sequel (post Avengers). There’s enough positive there for the studio to work with.

6) 505.1 - 535.1

Found its legs too late!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

6) 505.1 - 535.1

Found its legs too late!

That’s somewhere between $25-50 mil less than it needed for minimum respectability.

They lost the marvel battle…no need for fluffing. Onto the next “interesting” case study

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s officially broken even

lol…

#1 you have ZERO idea of what actual costs are.
#2 your “science based” predictions were so far off you should put them in an ark from now on.

Just go on drews vlog and help him stick the go pro over the construction walls, mmmmKkk?

 

[Disney Irish]

lol…

#1 you have ZERO idea of what actual costs are.
#2 your “science based” predictions were so far off you should put them in an ark from now on.

Just go on drews vlog and help him stick the go pro over the construction walls, mmmmKkk?

#1 neither do you, and yet you still like to call winners and losers here. And based on the information available it has passed the breakeven point, so they are correct.
#2 go easy on the kid, they have an opinion just like you do. Whether you agree with it or not they are still entitled to express them just like you are, and we don't tell you to go put them on an "ark" when you're off on things.

Maybe its time to just accept that you aren't the gatekeeper of the box office here on this site. You have an opinion, that is it. Its not your job to tell anyone what is a winner or loser, that is the industries job so maybe let them do it.

 

[Disney Irish]

6) 505.1 - 535.1

Found its legs too late!

Could be an indication that as I mentioned before this is a bit of thawing of the general audience with the MCU freeze out. So could be an indication that Doomsday will do better than expected as it tries to bring back that same audience.