Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I remember looking at a bunch of predictions at the beginning of the year and none had FF this low, $750m seemed to be the average….

IMDB predicted over $1 billion.

Box Office Predictions: 2025

These are my box office predictions for the year 2025 with their budget as well, and i also predicted the rotten tomatoes score and also sometimes i get predictions right or wrong but I still try my best for them to get things right for myself. (Update: this account will be gone someday.)

www.imdb.com

Screen rant had it at $680 million.

Predicting The 10 Highest Grossing Movies Of 2025

Some big box office hits are coming.

screenrant.com

Direct had it at $790 million.

10 Biggest Movies of 2025 Ranked by Box Office Earnings Projections

2025 is set up to be the biggest box office year since 2019, but which films will lead the way?

thedirect.com

Forbes had it at $800m

Box Office Predictions Summer 2025: ‘Superman,’ ‘Jurassic Park’ And More

Counting down the biggest blockbusters of the upcoming summer movie season — who will top the charts and who faces the biggest risks? Read on for predictions and estimates.

www.forbes.com

I doubt anyone in Burbank is going to be happy if it makes $250m less than expected.

We are ignoring these things today…

So… 30% chance fantastic closes below 500 million, 70% chance it closes above?

Does it matter? It’s all for Disney plus so people buy the subscription.

Low energy people have been saying that…yes

 

[JackCH]

Came off as such…my mistake.

But I have to say…this company line of “they WANT low box office totals to reset” is a PR front…and already being given more rope than it should.

It’s pretty ridiculous…I would not give it wind.

Why would a $500 mil reset of fantastic four…which means not nearly enough people watched it on first crack…mean its good moving forward?

It’s almost like rooting for something to become a “cult classic” on streaming…which isn’t where the Hollywood financiers are pouring their money into.

Oh, I'm certainly not saying this being underwhelming at the box office is a good thing. But I put that more on the film quality itself leading to a more mediocre WOM, not the IP. That was all my post was getting at.

I think the movie nailed the characters of the FF, which means a potential sequel, if having better overall plot/action/etc, could work and get a bigger audience. But this film itself I fully acknowledge has an overall vibe of a 7/10 for most, which is below expectations.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh, I'm certainly not saying this being underwhelming at the box office is a good thing. But I put that more on the film quality itself leading to a more mediocre WOM, not the IP. That was all my post was getting at.

I think the movie nailed the characters of the FF, which means a potential sequel, if having better overall plot/action/etc, could work and get a bigger audience. But this film itself I fully acknowledge has an overall vibe of a 7/10 for most, which is below expectations.

“Quality” films that make no money have roughly the same net effect as bad movies that make no money…

No buzz…forgotten quickly…can’t be sold to advertisers for better rates on both streaming and sequels in the future.
We are in a damage control period with this one right now. Don’t pay the name tags mind on this.

And they new they had a problem when the $170 mil in ad sponsorship was reported last week…5 days get opening.

Superman is plastered on at least the same amount of product tie ins - likely more - and they didn’t break the glass there. That’s a smoke screen tactic.

Give it more time…it still could buck its BO trends…not impossible…but highly unlikely here.

This is definite an IP specify and overall larger MCU problem. Not imagined or overstated.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Did any of those predict Asia was going to go soft on superhero movies in 2025 or that the American economy was going to get worse? No.

So just to make sure…

Geopolitics is to blame for bringing in like half what they’d want (for real) for an MCU “event” film?

Like lilo and stitch…which was kinda a low overall quality live action…but with heart…has powered through…but nada for 3 mcus sandwiched around them?

 

[Disney Irish]

So just to make sure…

Geopolitics is to blame for bringing in like half what they’d want (for real) for an MCU “event” film?

Like lilo and stitch…which was kinda a low overall quality live action…but with heart…has powered through…but nada for 3 mcus sandwiched around them?

Just so we're clear Stitch's China output wasn't even in the top 5 of its international take, it got beat by Italy which isn't really known as a powerhouse for US movie box office.

So yeah lets not make it seem like world affairs can't play a role, because it does.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

So just to make sure…

Geopolitics is to blame for bringing in like half what they’d want (for real) for an MCU “event” film?

Like lilo and stitch…which was kinda a low overall quality live action…but with heart…has powered through…but nada for 3 mcus sandwiched around them?

Odd how that only affected superhero movies the last couple weeks… Minecraft was a 40% dom / 60% international split, Lilo and Stitch 40/60, Jurassic 40/60, HTTYD 40/60, MI did 30/70… with the exception of Superman and FF all the other recent movies seem to have followed the normal split.

 

[Tha Realest]

If it clears 500M it will be a success.

They’re losing PLF and IMAX showings to Weapons and F1 this weekend. I finally have a chance to take my kid and the only IMAX showing is at 10am. It may not make $15M next weekend. And Disney has shifted its marketing to Freakier Friday.

Remember MCU is in repair mode.

After Captain America 4’s reshoots and Thunderbolts, Disney/MCU can’t keep affording these “repairs.”

 

[Nevermore525]

Odd how that only affected superhero movies the last couple weeks… Minecraft was a 40% dom / 60% international split, Lilo and Stitch 40/60, Jurassic 40/60, HTTYD 40/60, MI did 30/70… with the exception of Superman and FF all the other recent movies seem to have followed the normal split.

Previous FF Movies:

2005 - 46 Dom/54 Int
2007 - 46 Dom/54 Int
2015 - 33 Dom/67 int
First Steps - 54 Dom/46 Int so far

Previous Superman Movies:
1978 - 45 Dom/54 Int
1981 - 57 Dom/43 Int
1983 - 75 Dom/25 Int
1987 - 39 Dom/61 int
2006 - 51 Dom/49 int
2013 - 44 Dom/56 int
2025 - 57 Dom/43 int

These brands have been more domestic dependent for a long time

 

[Tha Realest]

Superhero fatigue is a factor, streaming is a factor, and so is the bad economy.
Families still go to the movies, but not as often as before, because discretionary spending is down.

Funny. Because Feige doesn’t believe superhero fatigue is a thing:

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

The next Avengers movie will really tell the tale of how Marvel is doing in terms of general interest.

The first movies used characters that didn't necessarily set the box office on fire individually (Thor, Ant-Man) but developed good characters that were important to those big event films.

My big question is, are they trying to generate an Infinity War size event too soon, instead of building to it. The original news was that the next Avengers movie would feature a smaller team, more like the first movie.

They seem to want the big event right now, so they're bringing out the Fox X-Men to pad the cast, instead of taking the time to develop the MCU X-Men. It feels a bit desperate.

 

[CoastalElite64]

Funny. Because Feige doesn’t believe superhero fatigue is a thing:

View attachment 875156

Even if he did he wouldn't say it. Same as James Gunn. You understand they have movies to sell, right?

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The next Avengers movie will really tell the tale of how Marvel is doing in terms of general interest.

The first movies used characters that didn't necessarily set the box office on fire individually (Thor, Ant-Man) but developed good characters that were important to those big event films.

My big question is, are they trying to generate an Infinity War size event too soon, instead of building to it. The original news was that the next Avengers movie would feature a smaller team, more like the first movie.

They seem to want the big event right now, so they're bringing out the Fox X-Men to pad the cast, instead of taking the time to develop the MCU X-Men. It feels a bit desperate.

While mostly unknown when their films were released most the Marvel characters (IronMan, Capt America, Thor, Black Panther, even Starlord and Gamora) became household names before they ever appeared in an Avengers meet up film, I’d be surprised if 5% of the public could tell you any of the names from the recent movies. To me that’s a sign they haven’t developed any of them to the extent they did with the previous cast.

I think this is 80% due to poor quality and 20% due to fatigue, when I was a kid Westerns were all the rage but they got consistently worse as the genre ran out of original ideas, it feels like Superhero movies are following a similar path, there will always be a market for the occasional good superhero movie but pumping out a dozen mediocre movies a year isn’t going to keep the audiences coming.

This seems to be a long term Hollywood theme, they all jump on the next “craze” and release as many films as possible before the craze ends, in my 50 years I’ve seen that with westerns, musicals, space movies, horror films, dramas, etc. Might just be time to move on to the next genre.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The next Avengers movie will really tell the tale of how Marvel is doing in terms of general interest.

The first movies used characters that didn't necessarily set the box office on fire individually (Thor, Ant-Man) but developed good characters that were important to those big event films.

My big question is, are they trying to generate an Infinity War size event too soon, instead of building to it. The original news was that the next Avengers movie would feature a smaller team, more like the first movie.

They seem to want the big event right now, so they're bringing out the Fox X-Men to pad the cast, instead of taking the time to develop the MCU X-Men. It feels a bit desperate.

I think any suggestion you can do that Same thing again is beyond silly

Not you saying it…rather anyone paid in Hollywood who tries to float that with a straight face

Feige and anyone in the Disney boardroom breathing it being tops on that list

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Previous FF Movies:

2005 - 46 Dom/54 Int
2007 - 46 Dom/54 Int
2015 - 33 Dom/67 int
First Steps - 54 Dom/46 Int so far

Previous Superman Movies:
1978 - 45 Dom/54 Int
1981 - 57 Dom/43 Int
1983 - 75 Dom/25 Int
1987 - 39 Dom/61 int
2006 - 51 Dom/49 int
2013 - 44 Dom/56 int
2025 - 57 Dom/43 int

These brands have been more domestic dependent for a long time

I agree, the genre is back to being a niche American genre like it was a couple decades ago, the Avengers films had turned the genre into a international sensation through the 2010s, with many in the 30/70% ratio, but the last few years of duds seem to have killed the genre internationally.

 

[coffeefan]

The next Avengers movie will really tell the tale of how Marvel is doing in terms of general interest.

The first movies used characters that didn't necessarily set the box office on fire individually (Thor, Ant-Man) but developed good characters that were important to those big event films.

My big question is, are they trying to generate an Infinity War size event too soon, instead of building to it. The original news was that the next Avengers movie would feature a smaller team, more like the first movie.

They seem to want the big event right now, so they're bringing out the Fox X-Men to pad the cast, instead of taking the time to develop the MCU X-Men. It feels a bit desperate.

They clearly want to get this phase over with and start fresh sooner than later. This phase had a lot of obstacles, including a world altering event. Also, the Fox actors are not getting any younger, so they had to make a choice.

 

[CoastalElite64]

I agree, the genre is back to being a niche American genre like it was a couple decades ago, the Avengers films had turned the genre into a international sensation through the 2010s, with many in the 30/70% ratio, but the last few years of duds seem to have killed the genre internationally.

Asia ≠ international. They have been a big part of it but not everything.

And comparing the box office to pre-2000s when international grew is very flawed.

 

[CoastalElite64]

A perspective on international Box Office.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

They clearly want to get this phase over with and start fresh sooner than later. This phase had a lot of obstacles, including a world altering event. Also, the Fox actors are not getting any younger, so they had to make a choice.

Here’s the bush we beat around…

What if there isn’t a “next”?

What if this becomes ninja turtles and Disney turns its back…because it would

Alot of my ranting here is rooted in a very distinct…almost palpable…current of undertone denial about where the Disney studio(s) are…

Has tech changed the delivery and math? Yes.
Has the economics changed a lot? Yes

But they also have lost a lot of the Street cred these last 3-4 years about being desirable. For those not on Disney forums.
Ask around…this product isn’t in demand and it’s cumulative damage coming to the top.

Doesn’t mean they won’t post a hit…they have and will…but the general concensus is not favorable with the main stream. Bad trend. Trying to crank out more and saying “we’re the best!!!” will only dig the hole deeper

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A perspective on international BO:
View attachment 875165

Is your point that all comic book movies have hit the skids hard?

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

They clearly want to get this phase over with and start fresh sooner than later. This phase had a lot of obstacles, including a world altering event. Also, the Fox actors are not getting any younger, so they had to make a choice.

They didn't need to use the Fox cast though. That incarnation of the X-Men basically wrapped up as its' own thing.

It seems odd to me that Marvel wouldn't want to develop their own version of iconic characters like Professor X and Magneto. How do you effectively do that now?

I get the whole multiverse thing but now we have those characters within the MCU as portrayed by two great actors. I would have kept that franchise as its' own thing.

Granted, Deadpool already used Fox characters and Stewart appeared in Dr. Strange, but that felt more like easter eggs.