Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

…so ignore the performance and go “hopes, wishes and dreams?”

I’m literally not in denial so don’t go retroactively claiming I am months from now!

We aren’t even at your three week wall! It seemed to have a good start, it seems to not be having a good second weekend domestically. I don’t know what International is doing. We’ll get a good look at the end trajectory in the next 10 days.

If all the wheel come off I’ll be sad. That’s a non denial opinion.

 

[JackCH]

If Fantastic 4 ends in underperformance it shall bring me great sadness. I do hope it hits the Superman range.

Like Thunderbolts they’ll get another kick at the can and a second wind in Avengers. I also can’t imagine they totally drop F4 either, I think there’s enough entrained support with this specific franchise to allow a sequel unless it totally bombed. Which it has not.

I’m not savvy enough with current Box Office to analyze much, but I know the general consensus is it is trending disappointment.

Which is sad. I love FF, and even aside I think it was a solid film roughly in the same tier as Superman. I hope we get a sequel.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m literally not in denial so don’t go retroactively claiming I am months from now!

We aren’t even at your three week wall! It seemed to have a good start, it seems to not be having a good second weekend domestically. I don’t know what International is doing. We’ll get a good look at the end trajectory in the next 10 days.

If all the wheel come off I’ll be sad. That’s a non denial opinion.

Fair enough…

But the die is cast. The most pedantic thing about this little think tank is the “but…but…we can’t KNOW for sure…” stuff to every thing that doesn’t post up well…

But a certain “level of surety” does exist with this numbers game.

So elemental beat the odds based on early returns…Mufasa did too…the trends didn’t hold.

But what about the 20 floppers before…after…and around them?

Yeah…that created that “surety level”

Is FF gonna buck it? No. If you can’t get people to a comic book flick 8 days after it comes out…congratulations, you’re the Flash.

But it’s ok.

None of us were ever gonna make it succeed…none of us were gonna make it fail. Spectators and we can shout at it for engagement. I don’t make the guy fumble at the 5 yard line…but I’m gonna let him hear it from the couch

Because we can’t speak honeslty about where this rather rudderless ship is at. Which is to say…in trouble.

Disappointment on this makes sense. And unfortunately…right now…a lot of my annoying predictions about the deplorables (I honeslty can’t remember the real name…) and fantastic four have come to pass: they’re going too far into the back of the comic book shop and leaning away from what actually made the MCU such a hit: which is main stream, low investment entertainment.

You can’t throw every comic book on the screen. Most of them consumed only by the geeks…were done so for a reason. Water finds it’s level.

And when it’s done everyday…it’s a yawn. Too much only works with narcotics (I’ve heard )…

Too much. Killing it. Bad management.

 

[BlakeW39]

Fair enough…

But the die is cast. The most pedantic thing about this little think tank is the “but…but…we can’t KNOW for sure…” stuff to every thing that doesn’t post up well…

But a certain “level of surety” does exist with this numbers game.

So elemental beat the odds based on early returns…Mufasa did too…the trends didn’t hold.

But what about the 20 floppers before…after…and around them?

Yeah…that created that “surety level”

Is FF gonna buck it? No. If you can’t get people to a comic book flick 8 days after it comes out…congratulations, you’re the Flash.

But it’s ok.

None of us were ever gonna make it succeed…none of us were gonna make it fail. Spectators and we can shout at it for engagement. I don’t make the guy fumble at the 5 yard line…but I’m gonna let him hear it from the couch

Because we can’t speak honeslty about where this rather rudderless ship is at. Which is to say…in trouble.

Disappointment on this makes sense. And unfortunately…right now…a lot of my annoying predictions about the deplorables (I honeslty can’t remember the real name…) and fantastic four have come to pass: they’re going too far into the back of the comic book shop and leaning away from what actually made the MCU such a hit: which is main stream, low investment entertainment.

You can’t throw every comic book on the screen. Most of them consumed only by the geeks…were done so for a reason. Water finds it’s level.

And when it’s done everyday…it’s a yawn. Too much only works with narcotics (I’ve heard )…

Too much. Killing it. Bad management.

Fantastic Four isn't from the back of the comic book store. They're a bigger property than the Avengers were when they were adapted. And definitely bigger than no-names like Black Panther or Captain Marvel. I remember when I was a kid, I didn't like superheroes at all but I still knew who the Fantastic Four were. And fast forward to me being an actual comic bool reader, I think they have better source material and are less derivative than the Avengers. Yet I did not and will not see the film. Why?

The reason FF is failing is actually just stupidity in three regards:

1. Disney made a number of stupid decisions that have tanked the Marvel brand (they started in the comics, didn't work there, did them on screen and, surprise! it didn't work there either)

2. Disney is too stupid and too arrogant to change course

2. agreed that Disney-Marvel massively oversaturated the market, and refuses to just......stop. for just a second. and let it breathe

 

[Ghost93]

I think Fantastic Four is just suffering from a damaged Marvel brand. Too many mediocre or bad movies and TV shows have come out in the past 5 years.

Black Widow was seen as mediocre and Eternals and Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness were — at best — divisive. Meanwhile, Thor: Love and Thunder, Ant-man and the Wasp: Quantumania, The Marvels and Captain America: Brave New World were just straight up bad movies.

But the movies weren't the only problem. The Disney Plus shows — most of which weren't that great — created a feeling of "too much homework" and made the MCU too hard to keep up with for the average fan. Of the shows, only WandaVision and Loki were universally loved, and it helped that they made their debut in a time where theaters weren't in operation. I really enjoyed Agatha, Hawkeye and Moon Knight and those were generally well received, but they didn't enter the zeitgeist like WandaVision and Loki. Meanwhile, Falcon and Winter Soldier, Ms. Marvel and Daredevil were seen as messy mixed bags while She-Hulk and Secret Invasion were hated. I personally didn't think She-Hulk was that bad, but Secret Invasion was unwatchable. Echo and Ironheart just sort of flew under the radar.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Fantastic Four isn't from the back of the comic book store. They're a bigger property than the Avengers were when they were adapted. And definitely bigger than no-names like Black Panther or Captain Marvel. I remember when I was a kid, I didn't like superheroes at all but I still knew who the Fantastic Four were. And fast forward to me being an actual comic bool reader, I think they have better source material and are less derivative than the Avengers. Yet I did not and will not see the film. Why?

The reason FF is failing is actually just stupidity in three regards:

1. Disney made a number of stupid decisions that have tanked the Marvel brand (they started in the comics, didn't work there, did them on screen and, surprise! it didn't work there either)

2. Disney is too stupid and too arrogant to change course

2. agreed that Disney-Marvel massively oversaturated the market, and refuses to just......stop. for just a second. and let it breathe

Fantastic four just doesn’t resonate as a mass entertainment vessel…they keep trying…with similar or worse results

It’s lauded by big fans…dismissed by casual consumers

 

[Ghost93]

Fantastic four just doesn’t resonate as a mass entertainment vessel…they keep trying…with similar or worse results

It’s lauded by big fans…dismissed by casual consumers

I think Fantastic Four suffers the John Carter problem where the derivative works it inspired made it to movies before it could. The Incredibles borrowed heavily from Fantastic Four (and did it a bit better TBH) and made it to the big screen before any of the Fantastic Four movies did. Even though FF came first, to the general public, it feels more like it's derivative of the Incredibles rather than the other way around.

Similarly, John Carter heavily inspired Star Wars, but by the time the film version came out, it felt like a Star Wars ripoff to the uninformed consumer.

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

I’ve been to the theater once this year and there’s a lot of movies I really want to see. Cost is the number one reason

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think Fantastic Four suffers the John Carter problem where the derivative works it inspired made it to movies before it could. The Incredibles borrowed heavily from Fantastic Four (and did it a bit better TBH) and made it to the big screen before any of the Fantastic Four movies did. Even though FF came first, to the general public, it feels more like it's derivative of the Incredibles rather than the other way around.

Similarly, John Carter heavily inspired Star Wars, but by the time the film version came out, it felt like a Star Wars ripoff to the uninformed consumer.

If we step back and take a bird eye of the problem…it seems kinda obvious…

What franchise that isn’t totally oversaturated would have need for “relaunch” after 30 movies in close to 20 years?

I think it’s an Occam’s razor scenario for MCU

Fantastic Four's box office drop proves Marvel is losing average moviegoers

Even the Fantastic Four can't keep regular moviegoers interested in new Marvel projects.

ftw.usatoday.com

 

[Nevermore525]

66% drop for second weekend. Will pass Cap 4 after tomorrow domestically

 

[TalkingHead]

The Marvel fans I’ve talked with seemed pretty lukewarm on Fantastic Four. “Better than the last Captain America and Pedro Pascal is nice to look at” is hardly a ringing endorsement.

The never ending serialization and conveyor belt filmmaking by committee has caught up with the brand. Unless there’s an event aspect (like Deadpool 2024) general audiences seem pretty checked out. Not sure what Disney should do at this point short of put the franchise on ice for a year or two (which they can’t/won’t do) in order to give excitement and demand a chance to build.

 

[Serpico Jones]

The old fart that owned Viacom was wrong. Content is not king.

Distribution is king.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

2. agreed that Disney-Marvel massively oversaturated the market, and refuses to just......stop. for just a second. and let it breathe

How many Marvel movies and TV shows have been released in just the last 6 months?

Most people don't care about a lot of these characters.

When people say they like Marvel movies, what they really mean is they like Spider-Man, Deadpool and X-Men.

...or when a guy named Chris is not wearing a shirt.

The most successful example of the MCU plucking characters from obscurity and turning them mainstream is GotG, followed by Black Panther (more successful, but not as obscure).

 

[Nevermore525]

Through 2 weekends. Superman was at around $410M by its second weekend:

 

[Nevermore525]

Internationally Superman and F4 are still equivalent. Superman just a higher domestic draw IP than the F4.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The Marvel fans I’ve talked with seemed pretty lukewarm on Fantastic Four. “Better than the last Captain America and Pedro Pascal is nice to look at” is hardly a ringing endorsement.

The never ending serialization and conveyor belt filmmaking by committee has caught up with the brand. Unless there’s an event aspect (like Deadpool 2024) general audiences seem pretty checked out. Not sure what Disney should do at this point short of put the franchise on ice for a year or two (which they can’t/won’t do) in order to give excitement and demand a chance to build.

It’s only gonna get worse

Any creative enterprise can’t post gains/wins every 3 months…the world isn’t built that way.

It’s infected every aspect of the TWDC.

The more they push…the lesser return

Thus

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Sony is also to blame for oversaturating the market with Marvel content (that's even worse in quality)

 

[DKampy]

Naked Gun, a slam dunk? An adult comedy with a new cast trying to revive a moribund franchise where the last film made a little over $100M over 30 years ago? A slam dunk? Who said that? You’re stretching more than Mr. Fantastic.

One would of thought it could open better then the awful Friedburg and Seltzer films like Meet the Spartans and Epic movies… those usually opened to about 18 million unadjusted

 

[DKampy]

…I hear it’s pretty good…don’t know how that translates to money…but a nice diversion.

You should watch it if you like the old ZAZ movies…. As it is the best spoof since the old ZAZ movies

 

[Nevermore525]

Lilo and Stitch up to around $1.020B with about $3M still to go to hit top domestic grosser thus far: