News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[Sirwalterraleigh]

MK is also slightly underdeveloped at present. With the pipeline including the Cars and Villains expansion, as well as a couple other things yet to be announced, I think it will finally have enough capacity to comfortably accommodate the guests it sees.

Their goal is absolutely not to “comfortably accommodate the guests”…it’s almost the 180 or that.

So it’s not a safe bet any of us see that reality…

 

[Tha Realest]

I am highly, highly skeptical that a company that has substantially cut back regular operating hours in recent years, has finally chosen to operate its two existing water parks again at the same time after a multi-year abandonment of that practice, continues to have shuttered attractions/pavilions in its two most popular parks, and tends to repurpose existing attractions rather than pushing for more classic expansions of their existing parks…

…has any intention of opening a fifth gate at WDW any time soon.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I am highly, highly skeptical that a company that has substantially cut back regular operating hours in recent years, has finally chosen to operate its two existing water parks again at the same time after a multi-year abandonment of that practice, continues to have shuttered attractions/pavilions in its two most popular parks, and tends to repurpose existing attractions rather than pushing for more classic expansions of their existing parks…

…has any intention of opening a fifth gate at WDW any time soon.

What tipped you off?

https://cdn1.parksmedia.wdprapps.disney.com/resize/mwImage/1/4096/2304/75/vision-dam/digital/parks-platform/parks-global-assets/disney-world/guest-services/lightning-lane/LL_desktop_header_1920_4x.png?2024-06-19T13:16:47+00:00

 

[Brian]

But those things will also drive demand which will increate crowds.

Temporarily, while these are still "shiny" and "new". Over time (3-7 years is the general consensus), it will even out and allow for eased congestion.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Does Epic Universe potentially change the equation?

If people extend their stay at Universal does Disney suddenly see the potential of their vacation packages extending?

 

[danlb_2000]

Does Epic Universe potentially change the equation?

If people extend their stay at Universal does Disney suddenly see the potential of their vacation packages extending?

I think the common belief is that a lot of guests have already maxed out the length of their vacations, so they may change where they spend it but in general won't add more days.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But those things will also drive demand which will increate crowds.

That’s a 100% theoretical excuse that should have been ignored 20 years ago. The last time they were serious about adding capacity space with “increasing demand”…it thinned out the crowds across a larger footprint so the compound could accommodate more people.

Temporarily, while these are still "shiny" and "new". Over time (3-7 years is the general consensus), it will even out and allow for eased congestion.

But that’s not what they want to do

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Does Epic Universe potentially change the equation?

If people extend their stay at Universal does Disney suddenly see the potential of their vacation packages extending?

Nope

I think the common belief is that a lot of guests have already maxed out the length of their vacations, so they may change where they spend it but in general won't add more days.

Not “belief” at all. The core travel market has operated on a 7 day “cap” in the us…more or less
Its time…it’s commitments…its money…its a mixture of all that and other factors…

Disney has KNOWN this…with data…since 1999. Notice how they haven’t actually added footprint really at all since then?

Avatar and downtown. They also closed River country, discovery island, essentially wide world as an “attraction” and a lot of the hotel recreation options since.

This all accidental?

 

[Brian]

But that’s not what they want to do

What do you think they want to do? Continue to receive a considerable number of complaints about how crowded the parks are?

By expanding capacity, the park "feels" less crowded, even if in reality it is the same or even a little more crowded when it comes to raw numbers. A 40,000 guest day at Disneyland Park feels a lot less crowded than a 40,000 guest day at Magic Kingdom, because the former has far more to do in terms of attractions and entertainment.

Remember, happy guests spend more money.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What do you think they want to do? Continue to receive a considerable number of complaints about how crowded the parks are?

By expanding capacity, the park "feels" less crowded, even if in reality it is the same or even a little more crowded when it comes to raw numbers. A 40,000 guest day at Disneyland Park feels a lot less crowded than a 40,000 guest day at Magic Kingdom, because the former has far more to do in terms of attractions and entertainment.

Continue to attempt to force “demand” to sell upsells for increased per guest spending…

Because that’s the only option they have now that their attendance is no longer on the same organic natural trajectory it was for 50+ to years as Travel increases.

No other financial options.

We should ask @lentesta What he thinks the “plan” is?

 

[danlb_2000]

What do you think they want to do? Continue to receive a considerable number of complaints about how crowded the parks are?

By expanding capacity, the park "feels" less crowded, even if in reality it is the same or even a little more crowded when it comes to raw numbers. A 40,000 guest day at Disneyland Park feels a lot less crowded than a 40,000 guest day at Magic Kingdom, because the former has far more to do in terms of attractions and entertainment.

Remember, happy guests spend more money.

Complaints are only a problem if they start impacting Disney's bottom line.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Complaints are only a problem if they start impacting Disney's bottom line.

They still have some rope to use on that front.

Took 100 years to build that Rep…the burn takes awhile too

 

[SamusAranX]

Complaints are only a problem if they start impacting Disney's bottom line.

This.

Disney wants for whatever reason to monetize capacity issues at WDW.

Meanwhile at DLR, I purchased MLL for only 30 dollars and it was amazing and easy to use. We will never see that at MK

 

[JD80]

This conversation happens all the time. This document doesn't share anything about Disney's intent to build a 5th gate one way or another. This merely states that if they wanted one, there is a base agreement that the can with the land if they chose. It's just due diligence from a basic level.

So in 10 years if they wanted to build one, they wouldn't have to amend this document first.

 

[flynnibus]

Complaints are only a problem if they start impacting Disney's bottom line.

And they reached that point at Disneyland.. so it's not like the concept is foreign to the company.

The thing is the company just wants to drive right up to that line as best they can... without crossing it too much for too many. Hence you finally saw the company publicly talking about crowd levels... and of course using pricing to shape it

 

[Dranth]

This.

Disney wants for whatever reason to monetize capacity issues at WDW.

Meanwhile at DLR, I purchased MLL for only 30 dollars and it was amazing and easy to use. We will never see that at MK

We did, G+.

 

[mattpeto]

I think the common belief is that a lot of guests have already maxed out the length of their vacations, so they may change where they spend it but in general won't add more days.

Bingo.

A 5th gate would likely just cannibalize AK or DHS I'd imagine. And no matter what expansion that comes to the other parks, visitors that come for a week still just hit MK 2x regardless.

I still think all the Disneyland Forward project work will create a 3rd gate. It's an opportunity to make it more like World, where you could really use a longer ticket.

At WDW, they sell 10 day tickets, DLR maxes out a 5.

 

[SamusAranX]

We did, G+.

Not comparable with what you get at DLR versus what you get at WDW

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I think the common belief is that a lot of guests have already maxed out the length of their vacations, so they may change where they spend it but in general won't add more days.

exactly - most people take a week's vacation and if to Disney that is 4-6 park days. Plenty to split among the existing 4 parks ... and now maybe they take one of those days to do Epic - so unless you think a brand new park would attract those people back (or take away people from Universal) all it would do is take people away from Animal Kingdom or DHS or EPCOT

 

[lentesta]

Continue to attempt to force “demand” to sell upsells for increased per guest spending…

Because that’s the only option they have now that their attendance is no longer on the same organic natural trajectory it was for 50+ to years as Travel increases.

No other financial options.

We should ask @lentesta What he thinks the “plan” is?

The good news for Disney is that the US continues to make more wealthy people.

In 2016 there were 8,774,000 households earning $250K+ annually.
In 2023 there were 19,040,000 such households, an increase of 117%.

Setting aside inflation, regional living expense differences, etc, for a minute: $250K/year in 2023 was objectively enough money to afford a multi-day, on-site Disney World vacation.

So I think they'll continue to do a couple of things:

• Continue developing products that address the idea of "spend money to save time" trade-off
• Re-develop existing lands and attractions for Lightning Lane, rather than add completely new
  • (I think that saves long-term OpEx.)
• Most new builds will be DVC and continue to convert existing inventory to DVC.
  • I'd be surprised if new DVC builds aren't in the very best locations around property.

I could be wrong.

ETA: Cite for data
ETA2: Households are in thousands