Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Elio was rocking a pretty decent critic score…so I hope that accurate and not fluff

On the potential downside - the lack of advertising and merch tie ins is stark.

I think maybe they were shell shocked by wish…which likely has contributed to a worldwide spike in pfas levels and a huge add to the pacific trash island

 

[Disney Irish]

Elio was rocking a pretty decent critic score…so I hope that accurate and not fluff

On the potential downside - the lack of advertising and merch tie ins is stark.

I think maybe they were shell shocked by wish…which likely has contributed to a worldwide spike in pfas levels and a huge add to the pacific trash island

As was discussed in this thread I think its actually more the norm for limited merch tie-ins to be released by Disney for a movie over the last 10-20 years. So over stocking shelves with merch for movies like Wish was the exception. And so this is a return to a more normal limited release of merch.

 

[easyrowrdw]

I saw it today. It’s very good! Classically Pixar and full of heart. I’m not sure why the buzz before its release was so negative.

Maybe it’s due to the delay and apparent retooling of the movie? Honestly, the trailer doesn’t really intrigue me but I’m still more interested in Elio than the Stitch remake. My kids feel the opposite though because they love Stitch.

 

[MisterPenguin]

or half the cost "last month's news" proclaimed.

Proclaimed by a blogger on a theme park web site that happens to have multiple sources for Pixar's financials?

Learn to skeptic.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

As was discussed in this thread I think its actually more the norm for limited merch tie-ins to be released by Disney for a movie over the last 10-20 years. So over stocking shelves with merch for movies like Wish was the exception. And so this is a return to a more normal limited release of merch.

It seems to be more correlated to what they view as guaranteed appeal.

The problem is they whiff more now

Merch heavy titles include the Princess titles…the very sequeled sequels…and the occasional large miss like Lightyear

 

[BrianLo]

Disney Leads U.S. Box Office With $1.1B Year To Date, But Warner Bros Is Billion-Bound Too

Disney is leading all majors at the U.S./Canada box office with $1.1 billion, however, Warner Bros isn't far behind with $1 billion.

deadline.com

Disney Leads U.S. Box Office With $1.1B Year To Date, But Warner Bros Is Billion-Bound Too​

As we near the half year point of 2025 for the domestic box office, which is currently running at $3.7 billion(+23% over 2024) for Jan. 1-June 15 frame, DisneyStudios is leading all majors with $1.1 billion.

That’s not a surprise with a string of mass-appealing movies, i.e. Lilo & Stitch ($371.7M) and Marvel Studios’ Captain America: Brave New World ($200.5M). Even the ones that didn’t work to the top of their potential are providing a lot of cushion, read Marvel’s Thunderbolts* ($188.9M) and Snow White ($87.2M).

Before Box Office Mojo became irrelevant, they used to track this more thoroughly. The record for the fastest Studio to 1B domestically is still Disney’s at 128 days in 2016. I assume the latter 2010’s had good but not at that level runs.

For reference the record prior to this was briefly held by Universal and it was 164 days.

It’s largely a reflection of a strong holiday holdover from the year prior to get them off to a good start; but the fact we were 170 days into 2025 and they already domestically over 1.1 is a lot of raw box office. And I know, yadda yadda, inflation. But this is why their last quarter looked so much better for the studios than some of our pundits prognosticated. Moana and Mufasa did a lot of work “q1 2025/fiscal q2” and obviously stitch now q2.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

OK, folks.

The CinemaScore for Disney/Pixar's #Elio has been revealed and it’s… exactly the same score #Elemental got: an “A.”

Thank god.

It didn’t get the “A-“ and “B” that 2022’s 2 sci-fi Disney films, Lightyear and Strange World, got and it’s the 1st sci-fi Disney or Pixar film since the original animated #LiloAndStitch from 2002 and #WallE from 2008 to get that score, and both went on to be box office hits/or award-winning films, too.

It might be premature of me to say this but this score MIGHT be a good sign for the legs of #Elio at the box office, just like #Elemental had, and we may as well see this film avoid losing money for Disney and either breaks even or becomes a sleeper hit, especially since a) it has no quality competition until #TheBadGuys2 on August 1st and b) the next animated film #Smurfs looks like a piece of garbage that will be the actual one to flop.

As Dan Murrell says, CinemaScore is usually a good indicator for how a film will perform at the box office and isn’t something that can be gamed or manipulated like an IMDB, Metacritic, or Rotten Tomatoes user score.

We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

[Disney Irish]

It seems to be more correlated to what they view as guaranteed appeal.

The problem is they whiff more now

Merch heavy titles include the Princess titles…the very sequeled sequels…and the occasional large miss like Lightyear

As the saying goes correlation is not necessarily causation. But I think its easy to say that anything that didn't have a large merch push, which is easily a huge number of their movies since and including Frozen, they didn't view as having a huge guaranteed appeal.

So to come back to what I said, its more the norm for there not to be a huge merch push, so there is not anything to be read into it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Before Box Office Mojo became irrelevant, they used to track this more thoroughly. The record for the fastest Studio to 1B domestically is still Disney’s at 128 days in 2016. I assume the latter 2010’s had good but not at that level runs.

For reference the record prior to this was briefly held by Universal and it was 164 days.

It’s largely a reflection of a strong holiday holdover from the year prior to get them off to a good start; but the fact we were 170 days into 2025 and they already domestically over 1.1 is a lot of raw box office. And I know, yadda yadda, inflation. But this is why their last quarter looked so much better for the studios than some of our pundits prognosticated. Moana and Mufasa did a lot of work “q1 2025/fiscal q2” and obviously stitch now q2.

Mojo just shows you the numbers…the facts

Are we not into math now? Is this the apologist version of “blame the media”?

 

[BrianLo]

Mojo just shows you the numbers…the facts

Are we not into math now? Is this the apologist version of “blame the media”?

Uh no, why assume the worst of me? I’m not an apologist, you should know I’m quite facts based.

What I was referencing is that Box office mojo was acquired by Amazon. All of its actual interesting data metrics were paywalled in 2019. Including the tracker with the fastest studios to 1B. There was a huge turn against it and this is what gave rise to “the numbers”, which we typically use more frequently. It has essentially provided a lot of the useful back end features for free that we used to have with BOMojo. But lost is any ability for me to see this metric from either site.

Box office mojo used to also provide a lot of weekend commentary as Deadline does. But that author team got the heave ho by Amazon.

This was all I’m referencing, the growing irrelevancy when it used to basically be the be all end all.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Uh no, why assume the worst of me? I’m not an apologist, you should know I’m quite facts based.

What I was referencing is that Box office mojo was acquired by Amazon. All of its actual interesting data metrics were paywalled in 2019. Including the tracker with the fastest studios to 1B. There was a huge turn against it and this is what gave rise to “the numbers”, which we typically use more frequently. It has essentially provided a lot of the useful back end features for free that we used to have with BOMojo. But lost is any ability for me to see this metric from either site.

Box office mojo used to also provide a lot of weekend commentary as Deadline does. But that author team got the heave ho by Amazon.

This was all I’m referencing, the growing irrelevancy when it used to basically be the be all end all.

The simple numbers aren’t “irrelevant”…they may not paint the entire picture…but the shape and the colors are there

Did you need a different word to make your point?

Box office performance is indicative of many things…still…it’s not a “non-profit” gateway to streaming…

Doesn’t mean it’s 1939 and we can go see gone with the wind for the 8th time for $0.15 cents…but it also doesn’t mean that Performance isn’t still the key marker for return on investment and strategy.

We’re not there…so we can just shut this down until we get there if that’s a better idea?

We might need a time capsule to explain it to those that follow…but I’m more than happy to bury it and pitch in if needs be?

 

[BrianLo]

I really can’t re-explain my sarcastic joke a second time over something so silly.

I surrender.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I really can’t re-explain my sarcastic joke a second time over something so silly.

I surrender.

Lost in translation…it’s what happens sometimes when a thread has been about 25 straight months of arguing simply for arguments sake.

To be fair…you aren’t typically engaging in that…so I’ll pay attention next time

 

[DKampy]

IMO…, if Horror was the chic genre right
now… 28 years Later would be opening bigger….but it can even get to 35 million to pass How To Train Your Dragon…. At 75 million budget I don’t even know if it will break even…. Horror many times is front loaded…. And there are some horror fans who are disappointed because they say it is not the film the trailers advertised.,,, although I have not seen it yet

 

[Miss Rori]

Horror many times is front loaded…. And there are some horror fans who are disappointed because they say it is not the film the trailers advertised.,,, although I have not seen it yet

Yeah, between the B Cinemascore (though it's been pointed out elsewhere that horror movies tend not to get to A-ish Cinemascores; it's a demanding crowd!) and word on the street, the responses to 28 Years Later are quite polarized - some viewers love it, some hate it. And yeah, the genre tends to be frontloaded, but this is still an impressive start, right in the middle of summer blockbuster season. That it's managing so far to outdraw a new Pixar movie is something I didn't expect, given the R-rated horror audience is a sliver compared to the potential audience for a new kids' movie these days!

 

[TalkingHead]

Item 1 for Monday’s development meeting is gonna be Finding Squirt.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Unfortunate Elio bombed…which hurts potential for more new stories and less canned sequels.

Not a positive.

Let’s just not do this “thing” where we blow smoke around it…and move on

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

On the bright side…stitch Is still chugging in some strong returns…will pass Minecraft and be the first billionaire of the year…

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

On the bright side…stitch Is still chugging in some strong returns…will pass Minecraft and be the first billionaire of the year…

Barely, though. And it may hit that mark the same way Universal pushed Jurassic World: Dominion to hit a billion barely before it left theaters.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

Item 1 for Monday’s development meeting is gonna be Finding Squirt.

Finding Coral seems more likely since there’s potential in a story where we find out, as I’ve always predicted, that Coral and a couple other of hers and Marlin’s kids survived the barracuda attack since we never saw her body.

And you all know the rules, if there’s no body, that doesn’t mean she’s dead.