Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

I dunno, I just don't see it.

Thunderbolts is sitting now at $370 Million after this weekend, it had weak legs throughout its entire run, it did not do well overseas, and going into its 6th week it has now flatlined at the box office.

Unless they hold that turkey in 500 theaters through Labor Day, I just don't see how Thunderbolts gets past $400 Million globally. It will lose a lot of money for Burbank at the box office, just as Captain America 4 already did.

Maybe they could sell off the Asterisk for a few bucks to help defray its losses?

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You may not see it, but if you actually follow the week-by-week tracking it’s been pulling ahead of Cap4 daily. As I mentioned it’s only $3.8M behind where Cap4 was at the same point. So if it keeps this pace it’ll hit $400M. Or it could fall off and plummet to zero (as unlikely a scenario as that is), the point is don’t call it out just yet.

Also as has been discussed many times, just because it didn’t make profit during theatrical doesn’t mean to won’t turn a profit ever. An MCU movie like this has huge earning potential post-theatrical, so it’ll turn a profit and won’t lose Burbank a dime.

 

[Disney Irish]

You would say…there’s also a disconnect between the reality - which is movies makes like 80% of their box office gross or more in the first 3 weeks - and some opinions around here.

This one has a shot because of what it is and a lack of options for the target demographics…for sure. But $400 mil after it’s no longer a new release is a hill to climb for sure.

I won’t doubt the little blue animal too much though…I think I’ve been mention all year what he is and why it hit…and also why the others that haven’t, never were gonna

Stitch is already pulling ahead of where Minecraft was at this point in it run, and it made just under $1B. So as long as it keeps ahead of where Minecraft was I don’t see it having any problem hitting $1B.

 

[BrianLo]

I think there’s a blowback when we say the word “legs”. Like some prognostication that every movie is going to pull an Elemental or Mufasa and rescue itself from the brink.

But by and large I’m often just referring to what’s normal. We’ve already seen Thunderbolts pass Cap 1 despite the Forbes article saying that was an impossible task… five days later.

The same applies to Stitch. It brought in 176M. A normal multiple is another 2X or 350M. A good multiple is easily 500M more. Thinking the film will struggle to hit 850 is a misread after the data we have coming out of this weekend. That would be an unusual crash and burn for a film that had an exceptional international hold, a better domestic hold than figured (we’re measuring a domestic holiday week on week) and an unreleased market that’s not unreasonable to expect some strong change out of. 850 is no longer the correct prediction.

 

[BrianLo]

Also apologies… stitch brought in 269M this week (Tuesday on), 176M this weekend.

I’m not seeing any world where it only makes 240M more.

Aladdin and B&TB made 110M in Japan. We can even halve that to be cautious.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think there’s a blowback when we say the word “legs”. Like some prognostication that every movie is going to pull an Elemental or Mufasa and rescue itself from the brink.

But by and large I’m often just referring to what’s normal. We’ve already seen Thunderbolts pass Cap 1 despite the Forbes article saying that was an impossible task… five days later.

The same applies to Stitch. It brought in 176M. A normal multiple is another 2X or 350M. A good multiple is easily 500M more. Thinking the film will struggle to hit 850 is a misread after the data we have coming out of this weekend. That would be an unusual crash and burn for a film that had an exceptional international hold, a better domestic hold than figured (we’re measuring a domestic holiday week on week) and an unreleased market that’s not unreasonable to expect some strong change out of. 850 is no longer the correct prediction.

I think some see the pretty graph on Numbers and think it’s a true prognostication tool about a movies outcome. It’s just showing an average outcome of movies from the last 5 year, not a for sure outcome for a particular film. Nothing more. And as we’ve seen it hasn’t predicted many movies properly including the two you mentioned. It should be treated just like any calculation, with a huge grain of salt.

 

[BrianLo]

I think some see the pretty graph on Numbers and think it’s a true prognostication tool about a movies outcome. It’s just showing an average outcome of movies from the last 5 year, not a for sure outcome for a particular film. Nothing more. And as we’ve seen it hasn’t predicted many movies properly including the two you mentioned. It should be treated just like any calculation, with a huge grain of salt.

There’s also no tool that really captures international due to the staggered release nature. See my sneak edit on Japan above. I won’t commit to 110M…

Underestimate Japanese love of Stitch and Hawaii to your peril.

 

[Disney Irish]

There’s also no tool that really captures international due to the staggered release nature. See my sneak edit on Japan above. I won’t commit to 110M…

Underestimate Japanese love of Stitch and Hawaii to your peril.

Exactly, which is why I keep pushing back on that silly percent calc that TP is using as it doesn’t show a real comparison, especially not one week-by-week. It’s highly inaccurate and gives a false accounting for how a movie really tracks internationally.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s a shame as Thunderbolts is a really good addition to the MCU library.

But found no audience…which Is a big problem for the ole Dis…

Not hard to perform the autopsy here…they’ve made mistakes

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is a box office discussion thread as I’ve been told many times, I’m discussing the box office. And I’m trying to keep things honest here with the calculations and comparisons. You are more than welcome to join in on the discussion or if you think it’s a waste of time you can bow out. But please refrain from telling me to stop talking about a current movie and how it’s doing at the box office, as many have told me the same.

Oh

…you’re trying to shine these flubs up…next pivot is to somehow when no one watches them on the stream that’ll fix it.

Blah blah…yada yada…

I’m beginning to appreciate some of your positions…not the wrong one like the MCU blind spot…but a lot of the others.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Also apologies… stitch brought in 269M this week (Tuesday on), 176M this weekend.

I’m not seeing any world where it only makes 240M more.

Aladdin and B&TB made 110M in Japan. We can even halve that to be cautious.

I believe it will…but it still has a good bit of work to do

No need to speak in absolutely about that figure yet…either way

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think there’s a blowback when we say the word “legs”. Like some prognostication that every movie is going to pull an Elemental or Mufasa and rescue itself from the brink.

But by and large I’m often just referring to what’s normal. We’ve already seen Thunderbolts pass Cap 1 despite the Forbes article saying that was an impossible task… five days later.

The same applies to Stitch. It brought in 176M. A normal multiple is another 2X or 350M. A good multiple is easily 500M more. Thinking the film will struggle to hit 850 is a misread after the data we have coming out of this weekend. That would be an unusual crash and burn for a film that had an exceptional international hold, a better domestic hold than figured (we’re measuring a domestic holiday week on week) and an unreleased market that’s not unreasonable to expect some strong change out of. 850 is no longer the correct prediction.

I think you’re right here.

The issue is we’ve had the same boiler plate predictions of “legs” on many films the last 3-4 films. Most have not had any really…or insignificant ones like the last however many marvels since guardians 3.

A few have…Mufasa definitely…elemental too…a few other mostly non disney releases as well…

But those are the exceptions now. Most of the popcorn tends to get stale on the same timeframe where the theaters-home-stream model is currently

There’s also no tool that really captures international due to the staggered release nature. See my sneak edit on Japan above. I won’t commit to 110M…

Underestimate Japanese love of Stitch and Hawaii to your peril.

There actually is…it’s called a memory and some research for patterns.

That should be good enough for discussion purposes…we’re all layman with opinions here anyway

 

[Disney Irish]

Oh

…you’re trying to shine these flubs up…next pivot is to somehow when no one watches them on the stream that’ll fix it.

Blah blah…yada yada…

I’m beginning to appreciate some of your positions…not the wrong one like the MCU blind spot…but a lot of the others.

You’re misconstruing what is being said and still trying to make this about expectations of the MCU.

All I’m trying to do is to keep the numbers honest, again this is the box office thread.

As far as the rest on its potential earnings post-theatrical, you know where I stand on that. So I’ll just close by repeating what I’ve said before, this movie won’t end up losing a dime for Disney and will make it money. And to make you happy, no it’s probably not in the amount Disney expected. But I’m sure any profit is good profit and they won’t look at it negatively.

 

[Dranth]

But found no audience…which Is a big problem for the ole Dis…

Not hard to perform the autopsy here…they’ve made mistakes

I haven't seen it because I had no desire to and that is Disney's fault for releasing too many mediocre, bad or just boring MCU movies. However, it could still serve a purpose as it has had good word of mouth. A few solid/good movies in a row could do wonders for the whole franchise. Obviously they would prefer a smash hit, but big picture, some consistency might do them better in the long run at this point.

Anyway, if and when people pick it up on streaming, assuming it is as good as folks say, maybe more show up down the line. If not, they will just stop making them eventually.

 

[Ghost93]

That seems pretty patronising and essentialising to me.

In what way? Tony was saying there was an anti-woke campaign against the film, but a majority of the complaints I've personally seen have nothing to do with criticism of it being too woke, but for being less successful than the 2002 film in terms of Hawaiian representation. Maybe it's just the people I follow on Twitter (Or the people the algorithm feeds me on Twitter, who knows at this point), but a lot of people seem to feel the 2002 film was unusually good for its time, whereas the 2025 film is a step backwards.

Another major criticism of the remake is Pleakley not wearing a dress like he did in the original and in the TV series. https://www.out.com/film/lilo-and-stitch-review-pleakley-drag#rebelltitem1

The movie is a box office success, so it's not like these criticisms are going to tank the film. But these criticisms do seem to reinforce my suspicions that the original movie was already perfect and that there was no need for this remake and that any remake would likely be worse than the original.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I haven't seen it because I had no desire to and that is Disney's fault for releasing too many mediocre, bad or just boring MCU movies. However, it could still serve a purpose as it has had good word of mouth. A few solid/good movies in a row could do wonders for the whole franchise. Obviously they would prefer a smash hit, but big picture, some consistency might do them better in the long run at this point.

Anyway, if and when people pick it up on streaming, assuming it is as good as folks say, maybe more show up down the line. If not, they will just stop making them eventually.

Steaming is a separate issue…it keeps getting lumped together on the bad performances

Disney’s goal in spending $300+ to produce marvel films is NOT to fail at the box office and then throw it into the catalogue where “maybe some people will pick it up?”

Now that may happen…it’s a consolation prize…but the goal of their big tentpole movies is ALWAYS to generate cross sales and more demand for material.

It’s just silly for anyone to suggest otherwise. We know the animal that’s caged here

 

[Ghost93]

I haven't seen it because I had no desire to and that is Disney's fault for releasing too many mediocre, bad or just boring MCU movies. However, it could still serve a purpose as it has had good word of mouth. A few solid/good movies in a row could do wonders for the whole franchise. Obviously they would prefer a smash hit, but big picture, some consistency might do them better in the long run at this point.

Anyway, if and when people pick it up on streaming, assuming it is as good as folks say, maybe more show up down the line. If not, they will just stop making them eventually.

Thunderbolts IS a pretty good movie and I wish it was performing better at the box office.

Unfortunately, I don't think there was much hype for it since the characters it focuses on mostly come from what many view to be mediocre MCU films (Black Widow, Ant-man and the Wasp) and a Disney Plus show (Falcon and the Winter Soldier). Many moviegoers may not have had Disney Plus and therefore have no idea who John Walker is. And those who did may not have liked the show, which had a more mixed reception than WandaVision or Loki. I'm sure a lot of people don't remember who Ghost is from Ant-man and the Wasp.

The movie is most directly a sequel to 2021's Black Widow, which got mixed reviews and underperformed due to being released in the middle of the pandemic. Florence Pugh's Yelena was easily the best part of Black Widow (and she's the best part of Thunderbolts as well), but I think her character's debut was somewhat harmed by being attached to a bad release date and a movie that a lot fans are mixed on. (I personally think Black Widow was an okay film, it just felt like it came out at the wrong time, after Natasha had already died. Would have made more sense to be released in-between 2016-2018, when the story chronologically takes place in-between Civil War and Infinity War).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There's actually a lot of progressive people who dislike the ending of the remake and criticizing it as anti-indigenous/pro-colonialism. I'm sure that wasn't at all Disney's intent, but people are reading it that way.

I'm not seeing the remake, but not because it's woke or anti-woke. I simply have no desire to see a remake to a movie that was made in the 21st century. It's waaaaay too soon. I also think the original animated film is perfect and there is no need for a new adaptation, other than to advanced Disney's continued assault on traditional animation.

Well those people are starting to have the track record of the Italian army…they are losing every battle.
The ending changes really aren’t a hill to die on…this is not really a political battle that needs to be fought. I’m no pearl clutcher…and I think they did a reasonable story alteration.

That seems pretty patronising and essentialising to me.

It doesn’t really appear to be such…

 

[Hawkeye_2018]

Thunderbolts IS a pretty good movie and I wish it was performing better at the box office.

Unfortunately, I don't think there was much hype for it since the characters it focuses on mostly come from what many view to be mediocre MCU films (Black Widow, Ant-man and the Wasp) and a Disney Plus show (Falcon and the Winter Soldier). Many moviegoers may not have had Disney Plus and therefore have no idea who John Walker is. And those who did may not have liked the show, which had a more mixed reception than WandaVision or Loki. I'm sure a lot of people don't remember who Ghost is from Ant-man and the Wasp.

The movie is most directly a sequel to 2021's Black Widow, which got mixed reviews and underperformed due to being released in the middle of the pandemic. Florence Pugh's Yelena was easily the best part of Black Widow (and she's the best part of Thunderbolts as well), but I think her character's debut was somewhat harmed by being attached to a bad release date and a movie that a lot fans are mixed on. (I personally think Black Widow was an okay film, it just felt like it came out at the wrong time, after Natasha had already died. Would have made more sense to be released in-between 2016-2018, when the story chronologically takes place in-between Civil War and Infinity War).

The film could have used a more marketable villain too.

 

[Nevermore525]

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 4 Superman cost an alleged $225M. May need to get to around $700M+ to break even at the box office.

Can Warner's DC Studios Rise From the Ashes With 'Superman?' | Analysis

James Gunn's Superman reboot not only aims to restart the entire DC universe but is one of Warner Bros.' most crucial releases of the year

www.thewrap.com

 

[DisneyHead123]

I don't think movies overseas run longer, but maybe they do? If anything, I'd imagine they have more competition from local/national movies in their respective lands. Generally though, the recent live action remakes from Disney have had foreign box office that was 150% or higher than the domestic box office.

Even disastrous Snow White got 136% of its domestic box office overseas. Probably because some of Rachel Zegler's publicity hand grenades she was throwing at her own movie got lost in translation over there.



For those of us keeping score, that's a foreign box office that is 117% of its domestic total so far.

Hmm. I know “It will have legs!!” can sound like a cry of desperation, but I just don’t see why this movie wouldn’t do well overseas. It’s a fluffy adorable family film that is obviously good enough to bring in a huge domestic audience. I still think people are just wary of Disney after a few years of inconsistent offerings and word of mouth will change some minds.