Universal Epic Universe (South Expansion Complex) - Now Open!

[SplashJacket]

Kind of weird that they jumped from light crowds to jam packed almost overnight. I thought it would steadily ramp up to this.

The difference between “this place is dead” to “this place is slammed” is not that big for capacity constrained systems.

The difference between a busy day and a slammed day is even smaller.

Then people wonder why parks like Disney want reservations, AP restrictions, dynamic pricing, etc. A slight attendance shift can have dramatic effects on park experience, and more control gives more opportunity for mitigation.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The difference between “this place is dead” to “this place is slammed” is not that big for capacity constrained systems.

The difference between a busy day and a slammed day is even smaller.

Ah, yes. The "tipping point."

Consider a park with just one ride that can throughput 1,000 people per hour...

Now, if anywhere from 1 to 1,000 people show up per hour, there will be no line.​

​

But once you get more than 1,000 people per hour showing up, a line will develop.​

​

If, using this example, 1,100 people show up per hour, then at the end of the first hour, there will be 100 people in line. At the end of the second hour, there will be 200. And so on. After 10 hours, there will be a line of 1,000 people.​

So, if EU has a throughput capacity of 15,000 people per hour, then if 20,000 people show up in the first hour, then there will be 5,000 stuck in queues. And if those who get off of a ride jump into the queue of another ride, the number of people in the queues will stay the same. And if another 5,000 show up by lunch time, then there will be 10,000 people in queues.

Once the capacity of the throughput of the rides is passed (the 'tipping point'), the queues will only grow as more and more people arrive and will not subside until people leave (or take a break to eat their peanut butter sandwiches they brought into the park).

 

[lentesta]

am i correct that you work for the WSJ...if so, their analysis of stocks is often pretty spot on...i'll bet that the VIP tour was amazing!

I don’t, but thanks!

 

[Purduevian]

Estimating ~16,500 people in lines right now (not including the 2 shows). Which is about 500 people more than when I was looking at it yesterday ~1:45pm. Although I got ~18,000 at 4:15pm

 

[celluloid]

It is interesting to me….Ugh Disney is adding a premiere pass… they are such money grabbers….and then I need to buy a Universal express pass

Who said you need to?

I don't think anyone blames a business for being a business.

 

[Dranth]

After doing some digging, it doesn't look most of the increased waits yesterday were due to more guests, but rather just a bad parks ops day.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Estimating ~16,500 people in lines right now (not including the 2 shows). Which is about 500 people more than when I was looking at it yesterday ~1:45pm. Although I got ~18,000 at 4:15pm
View attachment 861282

This assumes consistent optimal operational performance.

 

[Unbanshee]

This assumes consistent optimal operational performance.

A massive assumption at the moment

 

[celluloid]

A massive assumption at the moment

It only takes a 10-13 Silver, even on the best of days.

 

[Eric Graham]

I don’t, but thanks!

sorry, i apologize greatly...you're the President of Touring Plans...I really enjoy that site also!

 

[Eric Graham]

I don’t, but thanks!

and you also co-wrote the Unofficial Guides to Disneyworld/Land etc...what a great book too!

 

[lentesta]

After doing some digging, it doesn't look most of the increased waits yesterday were due to more guests, but rather just a bad parks ops day.

It was a BAD PARK OPS DAY.

At Epic... I'm trying to figure out a rough estimate of how many people are in the park based on wait times, capacity, Express pass capacity, and your 46=60% are on rides/in line rule.

I mean, I was told ~16,500-ish is the max they want, maybe with some ramp-up since last week.

I was also told they're not planning on a significant ramp up before August. I imagine that could change if ride performance improves.

I was told (by park ops) that Ministry opened last week with ~5 of 17 ride vehicles operating at once, so ~500 guests/hour. And I think they were at 10 vehicles, so 1000 guests/hour yesterday.

 

[Purduevian]

It was a BAD PARK OPS DAY.



I mean, I was told ~16,500-ish is the max they want, maybe with some ramp-up since last week.

I was also told they're not planning on a significant ramp up before August. I imagine that could change if ride performance improves.

I was told (by park ops) that Ministry opened last week with ~5 of 17 ride vehicles operating at once, so ~500 guests/hour. And I think they were at 10 vehicles, so 1000 guests/hour yesterday.

I'm always impressed at the amount of data you have. Combining the insider knowledge, asking the right people at the right time questions, and physically sending people to parks to count really gives you a very unique perspective on the operations of the park.

Other than BATM, I assume everything else is running "Max" capacity when it is open as far as you know?

 

[MisterPenguin]

I mean, I was told ~16,500-ish is the max they want, maybe with some ramp-up since last week.

That's a little more than all the rides' capacity combined. So, if there are really long lines... that truly is an ops problem.

 

[DKampy]

Who said you need to?

I don't think anyone blames a business for being a business.

I certainly was not blaming anyone… they can choose to do what they want…. It is just I see complaints about the Disney premiere Pass… while not so much with Universals express… sometimes it feels like a double standard… although I was not calling anyone out…I feel if there is demand it is a smart business decision… although I do not think either is worth it for myself…. Unless I stay onsite at Universal and get the free express with my stay

 

[Andrew C]

I certainly was not blaming anyone… they can choose to do what they want…. It is just I see complaints about the Disney premiere Pass… while not so much with Universals express… sometimes it feels like a double standard… although I was not calling anyone out…I feel if there is demand it is a smart business decision… although I do not think either is worth it for myself…. Unless I stay onsite at Universal and get the free express with my stay

Not really a double-standard, Universal Express Pass simply works better for their parks compared to the fast pass systems WDW has in place at their parks.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I'm always impressed at the amount of data you have. Combining the insider knowledge, asking the right people at the right time questions, and physically sending people to parks to count really gives you a very unique perspective on the operations of the park.

Other than BATM, I assume everything else is running "Max" capacity when it is open as far as you know?

Attractions almost never run at max capacity. During programming, a park-wide assumption would typically be that you’re hitting about 90% of THRC. Different ops teams and ride systems will vary in their performance

 

[celluloid]

I certainly was not blaming anyone… they can choose to do what they want…. It is just I see complaints about the Disney premiere Pass… while not so much with Universals express… sometimes it feels like a double standard… although I was not calling anyone out…I feel if there is demand it is a smart business decision… although I do not think either is worth it for myself…. Unless I stay onsite at Universal and get the free express with my stay

I see. I agree with the express situation of daily ops. Not for me unless the Onsite hotel spree. It also creates the issue, if many did not use Express it would not be a necessity, so it was always a weird service situation for me.

I imagine that the way many see it different with some cause. Because both are business choices and providing a service comes with some nuances.

Disney Fastpass was alway free, and well established as a free tradition by the time it changed (to be fair Uni's original Express was a free priority return system too)


I think there are certainly some that have double standards issues, however there are the situation of what Premier Pass and Lightning Lane have become. For many it is not so much that it is a paid priority system, but sometimes the ONLY way you can be sure to ride something and almost always a scheduled time system even after paying for it.

Uni Express, like many other priorities passes you can use it once per attraction on your terms.

 

[DCBaker]

A few details on the dragon drones via a new interview with Brady MacDonald and Universal Creative ride and show engineering manager Ryan Paul:

Universal Creative has been working for at least eight years to get dragon drones to fly through the skies over the Isle of Berk and Universal Epic Universe, according to Paul.

“The drone program is something that the team’s been working on for quite a few years now,” Paul said. “There’s been quite a bit of R&D in that realm. We’re talking down to materials. Every pound that you put on that drone is going to affect the way that it articulates and flies.”

Video footage has captured animatronic drone dragons flying over Epic Universe before the park’s opening.

“Those are our prototypes,” Paul said. “Those aren’t our final dragons. A lot of that is just the propeller programming and articulation of the wings.”

The traditional propeller-driven drones have articulated wings that use a series of small actuators to flap the wings.

“It doesn’t necessarily depend on the flapping of the wings to stay in flight,” Paul said. “That is just kind of that added element that is really kind of an aesthetic.”

The aerial drones will fall into two dragon classes: Gronckles and Monstrous Nightmares.

Gronckles are medium-sized Boulder Class dragons that are chunky and cute with gigantic heads, short bodies and relatively small wings that beat as fast as a hummingbird.

Monstrous Nightmares are large Stoker Class dragons that have long, snake-like necks and tails with sharp spines and a gigantic mouth capable of swallowing a Viking.

Universal Creative is still fine-tuning the dragon aerial drone show.

“That’s been a long time coming and it’s right at the threshold of being able to release,” Paul said. “Once we have that integrated and actually running as the show that we want it to, it’ll really add to the skyline.”

Full article:

How Universal made dragons fly over Epic Universe

The How to Train Your Dragon — Isle of Berk themed land opened this month at Universal Epic Universe in Florida.

www.ocregister.com

 

[lentesta]

I'm always impressed at the amount of data you have. Combining the insider knowledge, asking the right people at the right time questions, and physically sending people to parks to count really gives you a very unique perspective on the operations of the park.

Other than BATM, I assume everything else is running "Max" capacity when it is open as far as you know?

Mine-Cart Madness is running in the 950/hour range, which I think is pretty close to max OHC.

We've not measured more than 1,500/hour at Monsters, and that's supposed to be at 2,000/hour.
We've seen a max of 450/hour at Fyre Drill, but that might be just low demand.