WDW during a Recession / Economic Downturn

[Chi84]

That was the stupidity of the dining plan.

Fortunes lately…once they ended that and tried to restart it…it didn’t catch.

It wasn’t a good deal for a long time.

Neither are the menu prices now…which is probably why you can’t get a table practically anywhere…anyday.

I’ll repeat for the back of the class: they never wanted less people or less usage. They simply have killed the prices.

I guess that is “a benefit” in a completely upside down way? But not for the biz

The dining plan didn’t work for us at all. And day of dining availability has always been good.

The most popular TS restaurants seem like the most popular rides. If you want to take a group to Topolino’s breakfast or Space 220 they can still be difficult to get.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The dining plan didn’t work for us at all. And day of dining availability has always been good.

The most popular TS restaurants seem like the most popular rides. If you want to take a group to Topolino’s breakfast or Space 220 they can still be difficult to get.

There’s almost nothing you can’t find with a tiny bit of patience now

I saw both pop up in browsing for a few minutes yesterday

Don’t get me wrong…you should be able to get in. Especially since they now double charge people for rides through a variety of pressure tactics

But it not indicative of this “huge demand” that 5 Disney execs and 10 loyalists on this board seem to insist exists?

 

[Chi84]

There’s almost nothing you can’t find with a tiny bit of patience now

I saw both pop up in browsing for a few minutes yesterday

Don’t get me wrong…you should be able to get in. Especially since they now double charge people for rides through a variety of pressure tactics

But it not indicative of this “huge demand” that 5 Disney execs and 10 loyalists on this board seem to insist exists?

Oh I agree the demand for TS restaurants is much less now that they’ve decided to charge for LLs.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh I agree the demand for TS restaurants is much less now that they’ve decided to charge for LLs.

What’s ironic is a $250 lunch bill might be more advantageous than charging people $22 each to ride Tron?

But I’m not a 4D chess master

 

[Kamikaze]

Airlines decrease flights during slow downs. Full flights aren't a good indicator. The airlines goal is to have full flights if they have to cut flights and decrease capacity to keep flights full that's what they will do. I'm not saying there is a slow down.

Depends. If its a busy airport/route that the airline wants to keep that flight time & spot, they will do whatever they can to not cut the flight completely. If its a route that no other airline is going to grab & hold, yes, they will cut it.

 

[Kamikaze]

What’s ironic is a $250 lunch bill might be more advantageous than charging people $22 each to ride Tron?

But I’m not a 4D chess master

Of course you're not. Otherwise you would take ALL of the variables into account.

Food margins are not very high. Alcohol, different story. They make plenty on that.

Secondly, even if this imaginary family from Denver doesn't do a TS with a $250 bill, they're almost assuredly still going to buy some sort of meal in the park, even if its not $250 it might be $80.

Third, profit margin on QS/fast food is generally HIGHER than table service. Believe it or not. I'm going to use the lower numbers on the general profit margin for both. 6% on QS, 3% on TS.

Let's do the math now. Family of 4.

Tron - $22 x 4 = $88 profit
QS Meal $20 x 4 = $80 x 6% profit = $4.80
Disney makes $92.80

No Tron
TS Meal @ $250 total - excluding gratuity
Lets say 2 adults, each one has a $20 cocktail, alcohol profit margin is 70-80% at a TS
Food - $210 x 3% profit = $6.30
Alcohol - $40 x 70% profit = $28.00
Disney makes $34.30

Wonder which one I'd take.

Even if you take $20 off the Tron cut for maintenance, systems, etc, you're still basically doubling the profit with Tron and a QS over just a TS.

I admit I don't know Disney's exact margins on food and alcohol, but these are the low end of industry standard. If you do the math on high end of those numbers, it doesn't change the calculations in any meaningful way. The essentially pure profit of selling LLSP is unmatched.

Even if you leave the $4.80 from the QS meal out, take the $20 off for the maintenance, you're looking at $68 profit on just Tron LLSP vs $34.30 for the Table Service meal. So double the profit.

But I'm not a chess master, just someone with a little knowledge and a calculator.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Of course you're not. Otherwise you would take ALL of the variables into account.

Food margins are not very high. Alcohol, different story. They make plenty on that.

Secondly, even if this imaginary family from Denver doesn't do a TS with a $250 bill, they're almost assuredly still going to buy some sort of meal in the park, even if its not $250 it might be $80.

Third, profit margin on QS/fast food is generally HIGHER than table service. Believe it or not. I'm going to use the lower numbers on the general profit margin for both. 6% on QS, 3% on TS.

Let's do the math now. Family of 4.

Tron - $22 x 4 = $88 profit
QS Meal $20 x 4 = $80 x 6% profit = $4.80
Disney makes $92.80

No Tron
TS Meal @ $250 total - excluding gratuity
Lets say 2 adults, each one has a $20 cocktail, alcohol profit margin is 70-80% at a TS
Food - $210 x 3% profit = $6.30
Alcohol - $40 x 70% profit = $28.00
Disney makes $34.30

Wonder which one I'd take.

Even if you take $20 off the Tron cut for maintenance, systems, etc, you're still basically doubling the profit with Tron and a QS over just a TS.

I admit I don't know Disney's exact margins on food and alcohol, but these are the low end of industry standard. If you do the math on high end of those numbers, it doesn't change the calculations in any meaningful way. The essentially pure profit of selling LLSP is unmatched.

Even if you leave the $4.80 from the QS meal out, take the $20 off for the maintenance, you're looking at $68 profit on just Tron LLSP vs $34.30 for the Table Service meal. So double the profit.

But I'm not a chess master, just someone with a little knowledge and a calculator.

Agreed. I will add, I suspect the food and merch teams HATE the money for nothing, 100 percent margin LL product which is literally stealing money from food and merch sales!

The Food and merch team is trying to claw back some of that money with the thing with the second highest margin, alcohol. This is why lounges are popping up everywhere at WDW.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Of course you're not. Otherwise you would take ALL of the variables into account.

Food margins are not very high. Alcohol, different story. They make plenty on that.

Secondly, even if this imaginary family from Denver doesn't do a TS with a $250 bill, they're almost assuredly still going to buy some sort of meal in the park, even if its not $250 it might be $80.

Third, profit margin on QS/fast food is generally HIGHER than table service. Believe it or not. I'm going to use the lower numbers on the general profit margin for both. 6% on QS, 3% on TS.

Let's do the math now. Family of 4.

Tron - $22 x 4 = $88 profit
QS Meal $20 x 4 = $80 x 6% profit = $4.80
Disney makes $92.80

No Tron
TS Meal @ $250 total - excluding gratuity
Lets say 2 adults, each one has a $20 cocktail, alcohol profit margin is 70-80% at a TS
Food - $210 x 3% profit = $6.30
Alcohol - $40 x 70% profit = $28.00
Disney makes $34.30

Wonder which one I'd take.

Even if you take $20 off the Tron cut for maintenance, systems, etc, you're still basically doubling the profit with Tron and a QS over just a TS.

I admit I don't know Disney's exact margins on food and alcohol, but these are the low end of industry standard. If you do the math on high end of those numbers, it doesn't change the calculations in any meaningful way. The essentially pure profit of selling LLSP is unmatched.

Even if you leave the $4.80 from the QS meal out, take the $20 off for the maintenance, you're looking at $68 profit on just Tron LLSP vs $34.30 for the Table Service meal. So double the profit.

But I'm not a chess master, just someone with a little knowledge and a calculator.

I do take all variables into account. Because of experience.

It’s not a straight math equation.

What sitdowns do…very effectively…is distribute crowds. The parks are designed for everything to work in CONCERT to have everyone in a good mood, spend, and then come back.

Is this rookie school?

Full restaurants take people out of the queues…which means those in them are more pleased…hell…it even makes the lighting lanes more valuable/attractive because less people stressing the queues makes the LLs a more attractive/useful offering.

Or is a mobile order scarfed in 10 minutes from harbor house to go get in the 75 minute line for Peter Pan do more?

There’s a bit of nuance here too.

But thanks for that silly food and bev diatribe. It’s my first rodeo

Hush.

 

[Kamikaze]

I do take all variables into account. Because of experience.

Comical.

It’s not a straight math equation.

No, it is.

What sitdowns do…very effectively…is distribute crowds. The parks are designed for everything to work in CONSORT to have everyone in a good mood, spend, and then come back.

Concert.
Table service, as a whole, doesn't serve enough guests at any one time to make any appreciable difference in how crowds are distributed. There aren't enough seats for it to be a noticeable change when a TS is full or half full.

Is this rookie school?

You're here, aren't you?

Full restaurants take people out of the queues…which means those in them are more pleased…hell…it even makes the lighting lanes more valuable/attractive because less people stressing the queues makes the LLs a more attractive/useful offering.

Okay, but 'take people out of the queues' is what literally anything that isn't an attraction does.

Or is a mobile order scarfed in 10 minutes from harbor house to go get in the 75 minute line for Peter Pan do more?

There’s a bit of nuance here too.

But thanks for that silly food and bev diatribe. It’s my first rodeo

Hush.

Your post that I replied to was if they'd rather have the $250 meal or the 4 LLSPs. You're only changing your tune because I pointed out that your screed was wrong.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Comical.

No, it is.

Concert.
Table service, as a whole, doesn't serve enough guests at any one time to make any appreciable difference in how crowds are distributed. There aren't enough seats for it to be a noticeable change when a TS is full or half full.

You're here, aren't you?

Okay, but 'take people out of the queues' is what literally anything that isn't an attraction does.

Your post that I replied to was if they'd rather have the $250 meal or the 4 LLSPs. You're only changing your tune because I pointed out that your screed was wrong.

Good call on the typo…

Speaking of “consort”…are you mad at me cause I said (correctly) that Rey sucked in a lil tongue in cheek last week?

 

[Kamikaze]

Good call on the typo…

Speaking of “consort”…are you mad at me cause I said (correctly) that Rey sucked in a lil tongue in cheek last week?

Not mad at anyone. Just correcting your inaccuracies.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You're here, aren't you?

Still waiting to hear back from sheetz/wawa to see if I can work the graveyard shift

Okay, but 'take people out of the queues' is what literally anything that isn't an attraction does.

Which is why they have less people in the parks and the flow is all out of whack. You can’t intentionally take out all the diversions and they’ve done a pretty good job…combined with less hours to push resells

Your post that I replied to was if they'd rather have the $250 meal or the 4 LLSPs. You're only changing your tune because I pointed out that your screed was wrong.

Crap…I did that thing again where I forgot the “not literal” label on it, didn’t I?

I’m not suggesting that they make more off the $250…since lighting lane is literally no cost…the margin is as high as the sweatshop Chinese stuff…
What i’m suggesting is that the model for profit is better with a more balanced operation than trying to line item every thing with a price tag.

Empty sitdowns don’t help them. Parks are more “biology” than “math”…the system works together with all its parts functioning.

They just have really stupid people being allowed to tinker with them

 

[Chi84]

Comical.

No, it is.

Concert.
Table service, as a whole, doesn't serve enough guests at any one time to make any appreciable difference in how crowds are distributed. There aren't enough seats for it to be a noticeable change when a TS is full or half full.

You're here, aren't you?

Okay, but 'take people out of the queues' is what literally anything that isn't an attraction does.

Your post that I replied to was if they'd rather have the $250 meal or the 4 LLSPs. You're only changing your tune because I pointed out that your screed was wrong.

I don't have an issue with your math, but your analysis may be missing the forest for the trees.

WDW was not designed as a place where people pound rides from open until close. You're probably a long time visitor like me and have noticed the difference in the total experience between then and now. People were able to spend time at the resorts, water parks, theme parks, shopping venues and restaurants without feeling like they were wasting time and money.

I don't want to get into a chicken or the egg argument but a combination of poor management on Disney's part and a much faster-paced society has led to a worsening of the experience at WDW. If people are paying for rides, then rides have more value than walking through the Maharajah Jungle Trek or taking a boat ride from DS to POFQ to watch the entertainment. Ride capacity now becomes a serious problem when it never used to be that way and restaurants and other non-ride experiences are valued less and visited less often.

In the short term, Disney would rather have the money from selling LLs than the profit from TS restaurants. But people are not having the same type of experience they had back when they could take the time to enjoy the parks.

In my opinion, WDW is circling the drain and I don't know what if anything is going to stop that process. My family still enjoys the parks because we are fortunate enough to be able to absorb the type of uncharges that make that possible without feeling bad about it. From what I'm hearing and reading, though, we are likely in a small minority.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't have an issue with your math, but your analysis may be missing the forest for the trees.

WDW was not designed as a place where people pound rides from open until close. You're probably a long time visitor like me and have noticed the difference in the total experience between then and now. People were able to spend time at the resorts, water parks, theme parks, shopping venues and restaurants without feeling like they were wasting time and money.

I don't want to get into a chicken or the egg argument but a combination of poor management on Disney's part and a much faster-paced society has led to a worsening of the experience at WDW. If people are paying for rides, then rides have more value than walking through the Maharajah Jungle Trek or taking a boat ride from DS to POFQ to watch the entertainment. Ride capacity now becomes a serious problem when it never used to be that way and restaurants and other non-ride experiences are valued less and visited less often.

In the short term, Disney would rather have the money from selling LLs than the profit from TS restaurants. But people are not having the same type of experience they had back when they could take the time to enjoy the parks.

In my opinion, WDW is circling the drain and I don't know what if anything is going to stop that process. My family still enjoys the parks because we are fortunate enough to be able to absorb the type of uncharges that make that possible without feeling bad about it. From what I'm hearing and reading, though, we are likely in a small minority.

I think there’s a generational divide here…

Plugging numbers is easy…understanding why or how things work when humans…who are absolutely not governed by math…is where it gets pretty tricky.

The idea that lighting lanes fix everything is really missing it. From a math standpoint

 

[Kamikaze]

I don't have an issue with your math, but your analysis may be missing the forest for the trees.

What analysis? Saying I would take making $90 over making $30? Cutting edge stuff right there.

WDW was not designed as a place where people pound rides from open until close. You're probably a long time visitor like me and have noticed the difference in the total experience between then and now. People were able to spend time at the resorts, water parks, theme parks, shopping venues and restaurants without feeling like they were wasting time and money.

I've always done the cost to time ratio calculation once I started paying for my own trips. Its a side effect of changing by the hour for a lot of the work I do for the majority of time I've been working.

I don't want to get into a chicken or the egg argument but a combination of poor management on Disney's part and a much faster-paced society has led to a worsening of the experience at WDW. If people are paying for rides, then rides have more value than walking through the Maharajah Jungle Trek or taking a boat ride from DS to POFQ to watch the entertainment. Ride capacity now becomes a serious problem when it never used to be that way and restaurants and other non-ride experiences are valued less and visited less often.

Ride capacity has always been a problem. The issue isn't people running LL, the issue is that they replace instead of expand and have done so for decades. The parks should all have 25-50% more attractions than they currently do.

Look at the issue that Epic Universe already has on limited attendance. Its going to be a disaster over there.

In the short term, Disney would rather have the money from selling LLs than the profit from TS restaurants. But people are not having the same type of experience they had back when they could take the time to enjoy the parks.

Make no mistake, they want both. But LL is always going to be more profitable.

In my opinion, WDW is circling the drain and I don't know what if anything is going to stop that process. My family still enjoys the parks because we are fortunate enough to be able to absorb the type of uncharges that make that possible without feeling bad about it. From what I'm hearing and reading, though, we are likely in a small minority.

'Circling the drain' is a bonkers statement.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

…totally flew over the tower.

 

[Kamikaze]

I think there’s a generational divide here…

Plugging numbers is easy…understanding why or how things work when humans…who are absolutely not governed by math…is where it gets pretty tricky.

The idea that lighting lanes fix everything is really missing it. From a math standpoint

I didn't say it fixes anything. I said its more profitable.

 

[Chi84]

What analysis? Saying I would take making $90 over making $30? Cutting edge stuff right there.

I've always done the cost to time ratio calculation once I started paying for my own trips. Its a side effect of changing by the hour for a lot of the work I do for the majority of time I've been working.

Ride capacity has always been a problem. The issue isn't people running LL, the issue is that they replace instead of expand and have done so for decades. The parks should all have 25-50% more attractions than they currently do.

Look at the issue that Epic Universe already has on limited attendance. Its going to be a disaster over there.

Make no mistake, they want both. But LL is always going to be more profitable.


'Circling the drain' is a bonkers statement.

Sorry, I didn’t intend to make you angry. I was just giving my perspective as a fellow poster. Not everyone here is in attack mode

I probably shouldn’t have said circling the drain. What I meant was that it’s caught in the cycle of increasing prices leading to fewer people leading to higher prices, etc.

 

[Kamikaze]

…totally flew over the tower.

Is this, or is this not, a thread about WDW during a recession?

Money is the topic, not 'sentiment'.

 

[Kamikaze]

Sorry, I didn’t intend to make you angry. I was just giving my perspective as a fellow poster. Not everyone here is in attack mode

I probably shouldn’t have said circling the drain. What I meant was that it’s caught in the cycle of increasing prices leading to fewer people leading to higher prices, etc.

Why does everything that their points getting refuted is about 'anger' and not, the obvious part - their points being wrong?

Oh, wait, I know.