Survivor 48 Discussion Thread

[Wendy Pleakley]

I'm not sure if this is hyperbolic or not, because it feels so extreme, but I don't think I'm too out of line by saying this is shaping up to be one of the worst seasons of all-time. Like, maybe bottom 5. Thailand, Island of the Idols, Redemption Island, Nicaragua... maybe South Pacific? I'm higher on One World than most, but even with that, it's very competitive in that field. Even if something changes in the final 6, we've still had so many episodes with virtually no content. Everything has been filler since the merge, except for David's boot episode.

It's an old school type season where an alliance cruises to the end with no pushback. It's crazy that modern players aren't more savvy. It's easy to say from the couch and with hindsight and all, but this was clearly the time to take Joe out.

I'm not so much rooting for Joe to win as I am rooting for everyone else to lose. This could very well be the season of deserving losers.

I will say I don't hate it, because while it's frustrating, some seasons of Survivor play out this way. It's still interesting to see, that after 48 seasons, people will still play seemingly a suboptimal game.

I'm sure I said it before but a concern is that the producer takeaway from this will be to add more trinkets and more chaos moving forward. I still say let the players play even if the results aren't always dynamic.

We had a similarly dominant alliance a few seasons back, but the difference I think is that Jake tried to make what would have been an all time move. It failed due to a lack of trust, just like Mitch cited last week, but at least we saw someone trying and failing in dramatic fashion. Here we just see Mary on her own, being logical, but making no headway.

It's frustrating, but that's what makes reality TV great. It's not always going to be the ideal outcome that scripted shows offer.

I'm probably being too kind...

 

[PUSH]

It's an old school type season where an alliance cruises to the end with no pushback. It's crazy that modern players aren't more savvy. It's easy to say from the couch and with hindsight and all, but this was clearly the time to take Joe out.

I'm not so much rooting for Joe to win as I am rooting for everyone else to lose. This could very well be the season of deserving losers.

I will say I don't hate it, because while it's frustrating, some seasons of Survivor play out this way. It's still interesting to see, that after 48 seasons, people will still play seemingly a suboptimal game.

I'm sure I said it before but a concern is that the producer takeaway from this will be to add more trinkets and more chaos moving forward. I still say let the players play even if the results aren't always dynamic.

We had a similarly dominant alliance a few seasons back, but the difference I think is that Jake tried to make what would have been an all time move. It failed due to a lack of trust, just like Mitch cited last week, but at least we saw someone trying and failing in dramatic fashion. Here we just see Mary on her own, being logical, but making no headway.

It's frustrating, but that's what makes reality TV great. It's not always going to be the ideal outcome that scripted shows offer.

I'm probably being too kind...

I agree with all that. It will happen, but it's still not exciting to watch. I do blame casting to some extent. They cast too many "loyalty and integrity" players in one season. It's been a while since we've seen them, but they put too many in one season.

And ultimately the biggest problem was the division of tribe strength. They did Vula dirty this season. The tribes should have been more balanced. Jeff even sad in his podcast that he doesn't really look at that, and it doesn't really cross his mind. Because he made two really strong tribes, they never lost and had to go against each other early. So these "loyalty and integrity" players got to entrench themselves in that gameplay. They didn't have to go at each other early, so they could settle into that thinking.

 

[rd805]

This season had a really great pre-merge, where I felt invested in a lot of characters. Definitely straightforward since!

They could really be plowing towards a Joe sweep victory - which if that is what "the season is about", that's how they are editing it.... or they could blindside us any moment. They have done that with players like Devens not winning, Underwood winning come immediately to mind - and I can't say I saw Michelle or Gabler winning watching live.

Joe, Kyle, Shauhin, Kamilla, & Eva have all probably been the best players this season, Mitch has molded along accordingly to a 6th place game. 3 of them won't make FTC though, that's where some drama occurs.

 

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This season had a really great pre-merge, where I felt invested in a lot of characters. Definitely straightforward since!

They could really be plowing towards a Joe sweep victory - which if that is what "the season is about", that's how they are editing it.... or they could blindside us any moment. They have done that with players like Devens not winning, Underwood winning come immediately to mind - and I can't say I saw Michelle or Gabler winning watching live.

Joe, Kyle, Shauhin, Kamilla, & Eva have all probably been the best players this season, Mitch has molded along accordingly to a 6th place game. 3 of them won't make FTC though, that's where some drama occurs.

Rob C has been saying on his podcast that the final four fire making is actually encouraging the Strong 4 to just stick together. They know they never truly have to go after each other.

I saw Gabler coming once Jesse was taken out. I didn't think the jury was going to reward Cassidy, and she just didn't seem like she got a winner's edit.

It seems like seasons can't have a good premerge and good postmerge. It's one or the other. 46 had arguably the worst premerge of all time, but a fantastic post merge.

 

[PUSH]

Some more Survivor 50 cast rumors... it was previously reported that there were not expected to be any former winners. However, that has now changed. There's now rumored to be 2-4 winners, including potentially the previously rumored Survivor 48 man.

 

[rd805]

Some more Survivor 50 cast rumors... it was previously reported that there were not expected to be any former winners. However, that has now changed. There's now rumored to be 2-4 winners, including potentially the previously rumored Survivor 48 man.

I would love 4 winners - would prefer a 1 time playing winner. Chris Daugherty (he's too old?), Earl, Fabio, Jam Jam, Dee, Underwood, Todd, Tommy, Rachel, Kenzie, 48 winner. Vecepia would be cool too, I just picture her being a bit too old for this game?

I know they are looking at survivor "heroes" though so wouldn't be surprised with a Yul, Ethan, Spradlin, Sophie, etc.

 

[PUSH]

I would love 4 winners - would prefer a 1 time playing winner. Chris Daugherty (he's too old?), Earl, Fabio, Jam Jam, Dee, Underwood, Todd, Tommy, Rachel, Kenzie, 48 winner. Vecepia would be cool too, I just picture her being a bit too old for this game?

I know they are looking at survivor "heroes" though so wouldn't be surprised with a Yul, Ethan, Spradlin, Sophie, etc.

I don't think Chris or Vecepia would be too old.

The names I've heard the most are Vecepia, Earl, Rachel, and the 48 winner. I've also heard Dee. From what I've read, it seems like Genevieve might not actually be on the season, and the 47 woman is Rachel. Vecepia would be because they dropped the ball by not even giving her a call for Winners at War, but I'm not sure if that's more fan outcry than actual real information. And Earl wasn't able to play during WaW, but they've had interest in him before.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I agree with all that. It will happen, but it's still not exciting to watch. I do blame casting to some extent. They cast too many "loyalty and integrity" players in one season. It's been a while since we've seen them, but they put too many in one season.

And ultimately the biggest problem was the division of tribe strength. They did Vula dirty this season. The tribes should have been more balanced. Jeff even sad in his podcast that he doesn't really look at that, and it doesn't really cross his mind. Because he made two really strong tribes, they never lost and had to go against each other early. So these "loyalty and integrity" players got to entrench themselves in that gameplay. They didn't have to go at each other early, so they could settle into that thinking.

Listening to Stephen and Rob this week, I was happy that Stephen said as I did, it's okay to have a season now and then that is a bit more in the old school vein.

He further made a good point that a big part of the loyalty we're seeing this season, is due to shared stories and the connections that resulted.

Survivor is often now seen as just a game, with human chess pieces in a way. Here we have a season that harkens back to one of the original intents, a social experiment. Seeing how people who don't know each other connect, relate, and work together or against each other.

I listened to a bit of Rob on the Drop Your Buffs podcast and he pointed out there may also be an element of not wanting to blindside Eva because of how it could impact her and make the players look. She has said she doesn't recognize when people lie, so being blindsided could feel hurtful or upsetting, more so than some other people.

There's a lot of social and relationship elements at play, and the "loyalty and integrity" element might just be one part of a bigger picture.

I think this season might age well, when we look at it as a whole and see how relationships trumped making what appear to be obvious gameplay decisions.

Even if it is frustrating to watch.

 

[rd805]

I don't mind the straight forward-ness of the season -- it's kind of nice to see that gameplay can still "shift" (back to relationships) 48 seasons into a game that is heavily scrutinized. The majority alliance is domination -- it's not super crazy to get on board with that IMO.

Also -- imagine if the disaster tribe to start the season wasn't such a disaster (kept their "strongest male, voted out someone who was running rampant / making people crazy), and someone from the OG Purple tribe had to go home. Totally different outcome, and that's what makes survivor great!

 

[PUSH]

Listening to Stephen and Rob this week, I was happy that Stephen said as I did, it's okay to have a season now and then that is a bit more in the old school vein.

He further made a good point that a big part of the loyalty we're seeing this season, is due to shared stories and the connections that resulted.

Survivor is often now seen as just a game, with human chess pieces in a way. Here we have a season that harkens back to one of the original intents, a social experiment. Seeing how people who don't know each other connect, relate, and work together or against each other.

I listened to a bit of Rob on the Drop Your Buffs podcast and he pointed out there may also be an element of not wanting to blindside Eva because of how it could impact her and make the players look. She has said she doesn't recognize when people lie, so being blindsided could feel hurtful or upsetting, more so than some other people.

There's a lot of social and relationship elements at play, and the "loyalty and integrity" element might just be one part of a bigger picture.

I think this season might age well, when we look at it as a whole and see how relationships trumped making what appear to be obvious gameplay decisions.

Even if it is frustrating to watch.

There has also been a lot of talk of the editing, too. I'm not sure if they know how to edit this type of season for 90 minute episodes. Since we've had 90 minutes, we've had really good seasons with a lot going on. This is our first straightforward season since.

 

[PUSH]

Tonight is Survivor's 700th episode!

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Tonight is Survivor's 700th episode!

That truly is remarkable!

Also, makes you realize just how wealthy Jeff must be at this point.

 

[PUSH]

Finally!

I've been thinking the Kyle and Kamilla story has to pay off at some point, and they were probably smart to wait until this point to make a move. Their move undermines Joe in any final 3 configuration. I believe at least one of Kyle and Kamilla will get to the end, and either one of them can point to this move to explain how they 100%, irrefutably outwitted Joe.

The person I still do not understand at all is Mitch. He sits and does nothing, just to let other people dictate the move. Is he just playing for the best placement to get more money? Otherwise, I don't understand his logic.

I think going forward, it's a battle between Kyle and Kamilla. One of them will win. I think Kamilla will start targeting Kyle to try and get him out. Whether he fights back is another question. Kyle has the better relationships with Joe and Eva, but Kamilla probably has more strategic chops. However, Kamilla made the comment about how Kyle's move was so smart, and she wouldn't have even thought of that. I think that's our clue that she's not going to be content to just sit there. Whether she tries at 5, or she goes against him in fire, something tells me it's going to come down to which one of them makes it to the final 3.

Here are my finale predictions:

5th place: Mitch is the easy vote.

4th place: Joe wins immunity and puts Kyle and Kamilla in fire. Kyle wins and send Kamilla home.

3rd place: Eva

2nd place: Joe (3 votes) - he gets the Colby treatment... good at challenges, but not a real player.

Winner: Kyle (5 votes) - An all-around threat, even if it's not the flashiest game. Everyone can respect him.

Final votes:
Cedrek - Joe
Chrissy - Kyle
David - Kyle
Star - Joe
Mary - Kyle
Shauhin - Kyle
Mitch - Joe
Kamilla - Kyle

 

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And for the Survivor 50 votes, definitely yes to idols. Limit the advantages, keep 1 idol per pre-merge tribe, 2 in the post-merge.

 

[rd805]

I think Kyle is the winner too -- his edit has been so positive, and any "moves" that were made will be attributed to him and not Kamilla. I'm not sure if Joe makes FTC and loses, or if he is eliminated in 4th or 5th; but i'm firmly in the Kyle is the winner - unless he someone goes and Kamilla is left and then Kamilla by default!

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Shauhin saying everyone thinks Joe is playing the best but he knows it's actually himself playing the best game was wild. Perception is reality. The people saying Joe is the best will be part of the jury ultimately voting for Joe.

I know that many players think they're doing better in the game than they actually are, but it's wild that Shauhin would be so confident he could beat Joe when people are explicitly saying otherwise.

Mitch saying it's finally time to make a move was certainly eye rolling. I will say he has been on the right side of all of the votes. I can see a scenario, albeit highly unlikely, where he sits next to Joe and Eva and can confidently say his game is just as good as theirs.

I ultimately agree that Kyle is the clear frontrunner. The jury is now the case where most of those players have been itching for someone to make a move. This one move can be the one to put him over the top.

I wonder if Shauhin will respect it or be bitter? Framing someone with false information may not go over well, even if it's true about the part where he was willing to flip.

It was a clever move in that saying someone has flipped isn't always enough. They fed Joe a story that really made Joe wary of Shauhin. It gave him the means to "test" Shauhin.

 

[rd805]

What i found interesting is I believe concerning Shauhin thinking he was playing the best game: He must be hearing others talk about/claim that they don't respect Joe's game. Otherwise, it's totally delusional - but he seems like a pretty level headed guy so again, i'm thinking the jury isn't going to be on Joe's side at all. Thus...Supporting both of our gut feeling's that Kyle is going to win.

 

[PUSH]

I think Kyle is the winner too -- his edit has been so positive, and any "moves" that were made will be attributed to him and not Kamilla. I'm not sure if Joe makes FTC and loses, or if he is eliminated in 4th or 5th; but i'm firmly in the Kyle is the winner - unless he someone goes and Kamilla is left and then Kamilla by default!

I think Joe will get to the final 3 and answer questions by saying he played a loyal and honest game. That's a very hard thing to say at a final tribal council. David and Shauhin are going to take issue with that. I could see it going very similarly to Mike in 42. Although, I think Joe could get defensive about it, as we saw earlier in the season. If he does, that could rub people the wrong way.

 

[PUSH]

What i found interesting is I believe concerning Shauhin thinking he was playing the best game: He must be hearing others talk about/claim that they don't respect Joe's game. Otherwise, it's totally delusional - but he seems like a pretty level headed guy so again, i'm thinking the jury isn't going to be on Joe's side at all. Thus...Supporting both of our gut feeling's that Kyle is going to win.

I think Shauhin has an ego to himself, and probably has a better perception of himself than what's reality. And I'm not saying that in a bad way... the way he goes about it is somewhat charming and charismatic. He isn't the stereotypical egotistical person. He's someone who can make that work, and you still want to be around that person.

 

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Sandra just posted on her Instagram that Jane Bright from Survivor Nicaragua died.