WDW during a Recession / Economic Downturn

[Chi84]

If you follow that thread, after he quoted what they were saying…which may not be a “lie” by the textbook but certainly can be intentionally misleading…

…I asked Len if their proclamations match what he’s seeing in Orlando?

“No” was the short version of his response

He doesn’t seem to be disputing it though:

They don't to me, given consumer sentiment and the drop in international visitors. But this isn't the first time I've been wrong.

I'm surprised by the future bookings more than anything. Maybe the parks are such a huge draw that macroeconomic and international issues just don't matter.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

He doesn’t seem to be disputing it though:

“They don’t to me” might imply a dispute…but I can’t be sure

Also future bookings are anything they say they are…there’s no “financial reporting” involved. Every business since the dawn of time claims things are looking good in the future

 

[Kamikaze]

If you follow that thread, after he quoted what they were saying…which may not be a “lie” by the textbook but certainly can be intentionally misleading…

…I asked Len if their proclamations match what he’s seeing in Orlando?

“No” was the short version of his response

Come on now.

This is his actual response to your question:

News Post in thread 'Disney’s Q2 FY25 Earnings Results Webcast'

May 7, 2025

Perfect Person to ask:

You’re there…you live it more than anyone…

Do these numbers make sense?

They don't to me, given consumer sentiment and the drop in international visitors. But this isn't the first time I've been wrong.

I'm surprised by the future bookings more than anything. Maybe the parks are such a huge draw that macroeconomic and international issues just don't matter.

• lentesta

• 

They don't to me, given consumer sentiment and the drop in international visitors. But this isn't the first time I've been wrong.

I'm surprised by the future bookings more than anything. Maybe the parks are such a huge draw that macroeconomic and international issues just don't matter.

He said the numbers don't make sense to him, and admitted he's been wrong before.

He did NOT accuse the company of lying.

Its one thing if you're going to stick to your whole deal, but don't drag other people into it and put words into their mouth.

 

[Kamikaze]

Also future bookings are anything they say they are…there’s no “financial reporting” involved. Every business since the dawn of time claims things are looking good in the future

You'd have to go back to their previous reports/statements/quotes and compare to the final numbers to correctly quantify this. But you're not going to do that because its going to not agree with your alt-facts.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You'd have to go back to their previous reports/statements/quotes and compare to the final numbers to correctly quantify this. But you're not going to do that because its going to not agree with your alt-facts.

So we’re dissecting annual reports? That’s how we do?

You know…might be worth a go

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Come on now.

This is his actual response to your question:

News Post in thread 'Disney’s Q2 FY25 Earnings Results Webcast'

May 7, 2025

Perfect Person to ask:

You’re there…you live it more than anyone…

Do these numbers make sense?

They don't to me, given consumer sentiment and the drop in international visitors. But this isn't the first time I've been wrong.

I'm surprised by the future bookings more than anything. Maybe the parks are such a huge draw that macroeconomic and international issues just don't matter.

• lentesta

• 

He said the numbers don't make sense to him, and admitted he's been wrong before.

He did NOT accuse the company of lying.

Its one thing if you're going to stick to your whole deal, but don't drag other people into it and put words into their mouth.

You wasted your time

I reported exaclty what he said…his PERCEPTION is that it seemed odd.

I didn’t accuse he or any monolith corporation of lying

But you have to assume that they’re gonna interpret/twist the deets to paint the most favorable outlooks. This “I cannot tell a lie” belief in the nametags has never been true. They’ll use anything they can to their advantage.

As previously noted: they block up their segments for a reason. There’s flexibility in ambiguity.

Could increased crowds in Anaheim and DCL mask Orlando? Yes of course it can. They’ve been suggesting it in recent quarters…
Nothing out of bounds like that. But they don’t have any interests in showing “weakness” if they can avoid it.

First day of school here?

 

[Chi84]

You wasted your time

I reported exaclty what he said…his PERCEPTION is that it seemed odd.

I didn’t accuse he or any monolith corporation of lying

But you have to assume that they’re gonna interpret/twist the deets to paint the most favorable outlooks. This “I cannot tell a lie” belief in the nametags has never been true. They’ll use anything they can to their advantage.

As previously noted: they block up their segments for a reason. There’s flexibility in ambiguity.

Could increased crowds in Anaheim and DCL mask Orlando? Yes of course it can. They’ve been suggesting it in recent quarters…
Nothing out of bounds like that. But they don’t have any interests in showing “weakness” if they can avoid it.

First day of school here?

Well you did say Disney was lying.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Well you did say Disney was lying.

I think I did…tongue in cheek

I don’t believe they are lying…the timing is very ironic…I think they had it as a goal to have a “good quarter” no matter what…and did pricing and pushes to achieve it.

Bob needed it…and that story probably has more chapters to it. We shall see

 

[monothingie]

You wasted your time

I reported exaclty what he said…his PERCEPTION is that it seemed odd.

I didn’t accuse he or any monolith corporation of lying

But you have to assume that they’re gonna interpret/twist the deets to paint the most favorable outlooks. This “I cannot tell a lie” belief in the nametags has never been true. They’ll use anything they can to their advantage.

As previously noted: they block up their segments for a reason. There’s flexibility in ambiguity.

Could increased crowds in Anaheim and DCL mask Orlando? Yes of course it can. They’ve been suggesting it in recent quarters…
Nothing out of bounds like that. But they don’t have any interests in showing “weakness” if they can avoid it.

First day of school here?

Just as a point of information when you cherry pick your metric saying that second half FY 2025 bookings are up, what specific bookings are you referring to? Is it resort wide? Is it a specific category of res resorts? Is it a specific resort? Is it guests who are booking resort and dining plan? Is it people taking advantage of free dining plan?

Disney, does this all the time with vague references that could easily represent multiple possibilities. Disney PR 101 is make sure any public statement has only good news in it.

The boots on the ground say that the resort is under performing. The large amount of promotions, the wide open availability of table service dining reservations, All anecdotally point to problems.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just as a point of information when you cherry pick your metric saying that second half FY 2025 bookings are up, what specific bookings are you referring to? Is it resort wide? Is it a specific category of res resorts? Is it a specific resort? Is it guests who are booking resort and dining plan? Is it people taking advantage of free dining plan?

Disney, does this all the time with vague references that could easily represent multiple possibilities. Disney PR 101 is make sure any public statement has only good news in it.

The boots on the ground say that the resort is under performing. The large amount of promotions, the wide open availability of table service dining reservations, All anecdotally point to problems.

If they have the flexibility to make it look great…it’s really naive to even think they wouldn’t for a nanosecond

And that’s not a Disney complaint…it’s all big business. They play by the rules they constantly write or put pressure on to change themselves

And yes…the “perception” seems that things aren’t great in central Florida…

But they say they are actually “over performing”…so now they own it. They put the pressure on themselves to perform in Q3 and Q4…as the economic pressure on the travel industry continues to climb.

They bought it now.

 

[networkpro]

If they have the flexibility to make it look great…it’s really naive to even think they wouldn’t for a nanosecond

And that’s not a Disney complaint…it’s all big business. They play by the rules they constantly write or put pressure on to change themselves

And yes…the “perception” seems that things aren’t great in central Florida…

But they say they are actually “over performing”…so now they own it. They put the pressure on themselves to perform in Q3 and Q4…as the economic pressure on the travel industry continues to climb.

They bought it now.

Simple metrics to use : MCOs monthly passenger count conviently broken down by domestic and international travelers.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Simple metrics to use : MCOs monthly passenger count conviently broken down by domestic and international travelers.

The airlines are really crying and doing the harbinger routine…with increasing regularity in the last few weeks

Especially the Florida airports

We shall see

 

[Kamikaze]

So we’re dissecting annual reports? That’s how we do?

You know…might be worth a go

You’re the one making these accusations, not me.

 

[Kamikaze]

You wasted your time

I reported exaclty what he said…his PERCEPTION is that it seemed odd.

I didn’t accuse he or any monolith corporation of lying

But you have to assume that they’re gonna interpret/twist the deets to paint the most favorable outlooks. This “I cannot tell a lie” belief in the nametags has never been true. They’ll use anything they can to their advantage.

As previously noted: they block up their segments for a reason. There’s flexibility in ambiguity.

Could increased crowds in Anaheim and DCL mask Orlando? Yes of course it can. They’ve been suggesting it in recent quarters…
Nothing out of bounds like that. But they don’t have any interests in showing “weakness” if they can avoid it.

First day of school here?

Guy, you definitely misrepresented what Len said.

And you might not have used the word ‘lie’ but that’s 100% what you’re insinuating, and you’re being dishonest to suggest otherwise now.

 

[Jrb1979]

Guy, you definitely misrepresented what Len said.

And you might not have used the word ‘lie’ but that’s 100% what you’re insinuating, and you’re being dishonest to suggest otherwise now.

They aren't exactly telling the truth either. With DCL combined with both US parks it's easy to make it llook better than it actually is.

Example DCL and Disneyland could be up in revenue and WDW down in revenue. By combining all of them they can hide WDWs numbers better.

Technically it's not lying but it's not exactly telling the truth either.

 

[Kamikaze]

They aren't exactly telling the truth either. With DCL combined with both US parks it's easy to make it llook better than it actually is.

Example DCL and Disneyland could be up in revenue and WDW down in revenue. By combining all of them they can hide WDWs numbers better.

Technically it's not lying but it's not exactly telling the truth either.

They aren't only reporting numbers for WDW, though. They're reporting numbers for all of their properties. This site's focus is WDW, so that might seem shady to those who only care about WDW, but it isn't lying to not break out each department in the division separately.

Also, they've been doing it this way for a while, so its not like thats the cause of suddenly good numbers.

 

[Jrb1979]

They aren't only reporting numbers for WDW, though. They're reporting numbers for all of their properties. This site's focus is WDW, so that might seem shady to those who only care about WDW, but it isn't lying to not break out each department in the division separately.

Also, they've been doing it this way for a while, so its not like thats the cause of suddenly good numbers.

They aren't but they also do it this way for a reason. It's basically to be able put a positive spin on the department as a whole.

Personally I think the good numbers come from LL sales. While it's not a bad thing, I'm just sure how much they can raise the price to increase profits more.

 

[Kamikaze]

They aren't but they also do it this way for a reason. It's basically to be able put a positive spin on the department as a whole.

Personally I think the good numbers come from LL sales. While it's not a bad thing, I'm just sure how much they can raise the price to increase profits more.

There are two things at issue here. One is the reported numbers for the prior quarter (those are 100% real, even the good Sir can't argue that in good faith), and second is the future bookings. He's saying that those projections and numbers of rooms that are already booked are BS, to put it simply.

I agree 100%, the huge increase in the reported numbers has a lot to do with LL, LLPP specifically.

 

[Jrb1979]

There are two things at issue here. One is the reported numbers for the prior quarter (those are 100% real, even the good Sir can't argue that in good faith), and second is the future bookings. He's saying that those projections and numbers of rooms that are already booked are BS, to put it simply.

I agree 100%, the huge increase in the reported numbers has a lot to do with LL, LLPP specifically.

They could well be BS for future bookings. Right now they could have lots of rooms booked.

Bookings for both properties are definitely soft on our end.

We saw a push early last fall with lots of quotes but a much lower than usual booking rate.

Over the last 8 weeks or so we've had a very unusual spike in near-travel cancelations, where clients are canceling trips that are 1 to 4 months out. Most had only paid the minimum deposit.

This is what I think he was talking about. Future bookings for summer were trending up during the last quarter call. IMO why some are sceptical that bookings are looking strong for fall is due to the amount of discounts and offers they have out there. They don't offer kids eat free for a whole year just cause.