Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[brideck]

Yes. Because math.

Lets say a movie had a budget of 180M. Folks on these boards say (180 * 2.5 = 450) it takes 450M to beak even.

Lets say a movie studio releases 5 of these movies, each losing money that make 425M

That is over 2.1 billion gross at the box office, yet none of the movies are profitable.

2.5x is a conservative guideline. The actual breakeven point is usually a touch lower than that. Captain America and (soon-to-be) Thunderbolts essentially fall into the wash category, not the loss column. And it's ridiculous to think that those movies will be the high water mark for the year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't need to post a prediction. Do I think it'll do well, yes. But by how much, I don't know nor will post a specific amount. And I haven't for a long time now.

Then you’re hedging…so don’t bother lecturing anyone…anything…about your interpretations of FF and/or MCU

And it’s not a gotcha…it’s an opinion…take your shot. You might be right, wrong, over or under. I’m wrong about things every single day…but it’s not always here.

I’m intentionally trying to ignore the forthcoming “thunderbolts actually did well…” nonsense. Bull. Not only is covered in red ink…it’s not what Disney wants from its tentpoles. The truth should have its day (and every day). Lather rinse on this…I’m sure

But the “money doesn’t matter for the movies”…immediately followed by claiming “victory” for your favorite company if they do make a buck…is falling short of the green ️

Easy there. We don't stomp down any opinions here.

Normally I don’t…I’ve been engaging on forums such as this for years with anyone from teens to the most delusional, dust huffing faux “adults” out there…

It’s a good time killer…you meet some nice people along the way…engagement helps the brain (well…most of the time )

But the “hey, mom, I made myself an “insider” with a pod/vlogg (so please don’t kick me out of the basement)” trend needs to be called out for what it is…

The beatings will continue until common sense returns.

 

[Agent H]

Then you’re hedging…so don’t bother lecturing anyone…anything…about your interpretations of FF and/or MCU

And it’s not a gotcha…it’s an opinion…take your shot. You might be right, wrong, over or under. I’m wrong about things every single day…but it’s not always here.

I’m intentionally trying to ignore the forthcoming “thunderbolts actually did well…” nonsense. Bull. Not only is covered in red ink…it’s not what Disney wants from its tentpoles. The truth should have its day (and every day). Lather rinse on this…I’m sure

But the “money doesn’t matter for the movies”…immediately followed by claiming “victory” for your favorite company if they do make a buck…is falling short of the green.

I don’t think it’s supposed to be a tentpole release. For those look at fantastic 4 stitch and Zootopia

 

[Disstevefan1]

2.5x is a conservative guideline. The actual breakeven point is usually a touch lower than that.

Depending on who you talk to, the 2.5 is an under estimate.

And as we all know, we really don't what the true costs are because a studio can state a movie budget of 180M but then go over budget and also spend more than expected on marketing.

The point is, the gross earnings is a nice number to look at but we do not know the real story.

 

[Agent H]

Normally I don’t…I’ve been engaging on forums such as this for years with anyone from teens to the most delusional, dust huffing faux “adults” out there…

It’s a good time killer…you meet some nice people along the way…engagement helps the brain (well…most of the time )

But the “hey, mom, I made myself an “insider” with a pod/vlogg (so please don’t kick me out of the basement)” trend needs to be called out for what it is…

The beatings will continue until common sense returns.

These 4 sentences explain a lot.

 

[brideck]

I’m intentionally trying to ignore the forthcoming “thunderbolts actually did well…” nonsense. Bull. Not only is covered in red ink…it’s not what Disney wants from its tentpoles. The truth should have its day (and every day). Lather rinse on this…I’m sure

You want a prediction? Thunderbolts* should look pretty similar to Cap 4 for its WW total (~$200m/$420m) when all is said and done. This'll put it firmly in the wash category -- far from covered in red ink.

The beatings will continue until common sense returns.

You need to figure out how to be understood first before you can be the vanguard of "common sense" that you seek to be.

 

[brideck]

Depending on who you talk to, the 2.5 is an under estimate.

It's really not, at least not for Disney's movies/practices. See all of the work that Brian Lo has done throughout this thread to backprove numbers and compare them to Deadline's end of year tale of the tape and/or Disney's reported quarterly/annual numbers.

 

[Disstevefan1]

(so please don’t kick me out of the basement)

I had a home with a basement. My current home has no basement. I miss my basement.

 

[Disney Irish]

Yes. Because math.

Lets say a movie had a budget of 180M. Folks on these boards say (180 * 2.5 = 450) it takes 450M to beak even.

Lets say a movie studio releases 5 of these movies, each losing money that make 425M

That is over 2.1 billion gross at the box office, yet none of the movies are profitable.

Except in such a scenario Disney wouldn't be top earner at the box office. Because that assumes that no other studio is able to string together any other movies that do better than $400M, which is almost impossible. Because if that scenario ever comes to pass we have bigger problems than Disney not making profit, we have the actual downfall of theatrical. And that day may comes soon enough, but it won't be in 2025.

Plus the more likely scenario is that 2025 is carried by 2 or 3 movies for Disney - Avatar, Stitch, and possibly Zootopia 2. All the rest that make profit are just gravy at that point.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

The only MCU films post Endgame that made over $1 billion are the Spider-Man films and Deadpool vs. Wolverine. It’s a new film series within the franchise. $700-$800M would be a great success.

And you were confident you saw (see?) a return to hand drawn animation. So maybe sit this one out?

Shut up.

I’ll speak my mind if I want to and I don’t need some hot-headed bullies telling me what I’m allowed to say, speak, or think.

Also, while the Fantastic 4 is new to the MCU, it’s not new to mass audiences who have wanted and waited to see Marvel Studios do them right when Fox butchered them three times (Roger Corman, Tim Story, and Josh Trank).

So, I’ll take my chances and ignore anyone who doubts this movie can make a billion just because they’re worthless, useless, faithless, and jaded

 

[Tha Realest]

Fantastic four has always had a lot in common with the muppets.

Really well-liked within its fandom, but doesn’t have a broader cultural appeal like other four-quadrant type properties?

I’m interested to see how this one breaks?

The Chris Evans FF made $333M, or $550M inflation adjusted to today. I think it’ll clear that? Maybe?

 

[Disstevefan1]

Except in such a scenario Disney wouldn't be top earner at the box office. Because that assumes that no other studio is able to string together any other movies that do better than $400M, which is almost impossible. Because if that scenario ever comes to pass we have bigger problems than Disney not making profit, we have the actual downfall of theatrical. And that day may comes soon enough, but it won't be in 2025.

Plus the more likely scenario is that 2025 is carried by 2 or 3 movies for Disney - Avatar, Stitch, and possibly Zootopia 2. All the rest that make profit are just gravy at that point.

It was just an example and I never mentioned Disney.

 

[Tha Realest]

Also, while the Fantastic 4 is new to the MCU, it’s not new to mass audiences who have wanted and waited to see Marvel Studios do them right when Fox butchered them three times (Roger Corman, Tim Story, and Josh Trank).

The Tim Story films, while not good, did make a lot of money.

For this new film series to make a billion dollars out of the gate it would have to achieve what only two other new film series in the MCU did (BP and Captain Marvel, and those did so at the height of the MCU’s popularity). It’s entering into a crowded box office and the MCU films aren’t performing as well as they once did.

So, I’ll take my chances and ignore anyone who doubts this movie can make a billion just because they’re worthless, useless, faithless, and jaded

If you want to ignore most reason and common sense, that’s fine, we’re just trying to save you from all the face-planting you’ve done with this insistence that Disney will return to hand drawn animation with a 2029 Tiana sequel theatrical release

 

[Disney Irish]

Then you’re hedging…so don’t bother lecturing anyone…anything…about your interpretations of FF and/or MCU

And it’s not a gotcha…it’s an opinion…take your shot. You might be right, wrong, over or under. I’m wrong about things every single day…but it’s not always here.

I’m intentionally trying to ignore the forthcoming “thunderbolts actually did well…” nonsense. Bull. Not only is covered in red ink…it’s not what Disney wants from its tentpoles. The truth should have its day (and every day). Lather rinse on this…I’m sure

But the “money doesn’t matter for the movies”…immediately followed by claiming “victory” for your favorite company if they do make a buck…is falling short of the green ️

I'm not hedging, I'm flat out saying I think it'll do well. I'm just not putting a specific number on it.

Also again you're specifically trying to speak as if you have a seat at the table in Burbank, you don't. You don't know what Disney's expectation of this or any other recent MCU movie. For all you know so far Thunderbolts is doing as Disney expected. So maybe instead of trying to speak for Disney you just state your opinion, ie that its not what YOU expect for a Disney tentpole.

Normally I don’t…I’ve been engaging on forums such as this for years with anyone from teens to the most delusional, dust huffing faux “adults” out there…

It’s a good time killer…you meet some nice people along the way…engagement helps the brain (well…most of the time )

But the “hey, mom, I made myself an “insider” with a pod/vlogg (so please don’t kick me out of the basement)” trend needs to be called out for what it is…

The beatings will continue until common sense returns.

I don't think that poster was trying to promote themselves as some insider. Also we have posters of all different make ups here, including those on the spectrum. So instead of trying to quiet them with your snark maybe find a little kindness.

 

[Disney Irish]

It was just an example and I never mentioned Disney.

Except what else would your scenario be about except Disney in the context of the conversation we were having, so I call BS on that.

 

[DisneyWarrior27]

I'm not hedging, I'm flat out saying I think it'll do well. I'm just not putting a specific number on it.

Also again you're specifically trying to speak as if you have a seat at the table in Burbank, you don't. You don't know what Disney's expectation of this or any other recent MCU movie. For all you know so far Thunderbolts is doing as Disney expected. So maybe instead of trying to speak for Disney you just state your opinion, ie that its not what YOU expect for a Disney tentpole.


I don't think that poster was trying to promote themselves as some insider. Also we have posters of all different make ups here, including those on the spectrum. So instead of trying to quiet them with your snark maybe find a little kindness.

This. ^

 

[Disney Irish]

The other factor to remember is takes a huge blockbuster to offset a movie like Snow White (that loses $200+ million).

Since Disney only gets (roughly) half the theater revenue it takes a huge hit to make up for every loser, with Disney budgets often $200 million + another 50% for marketing something else has to make a billion + just for Disney to make up for a different films $200m loss.

If you’re only release of handful of films a year you really can’t afford to have massive flops because there (often) aren’t enough blockbusters to make up for those massive losses.

Even if they ultimately manage a yearly profit it’s a horrible return on investment if they’re spending a couple billion and only making a couple hundred million in profit at the end of the year. They’d be better off using that money adding E tickets at the parks every year for that guaranteed LL profit.

First I think we need to stop assuming that we know what the actual goals are for studios within the walls of Disney.

Second you assume the end goal is to clear enough to make profit, whatever that number may be, and that they count that as a ROI failure if its only a couple hundred Million. We can't assume that just because that is what "we" would want if we were in their position.

As corporate synergy is their stated goal I don't think it can be assumed that any profit from studios is considered a ROI failure. As that will end up having a multiplier beyond just the profits made from the movies themselves.

 

[brideck]

The other factor to remember is takes a huge blockbuster to offset a movie like Snow White (that loses $200+ million).

Since Disney only gets (roughly) half the theater revenue it takes a huge hit to make up for every loser, with Disney budgets often $200 million + another 50% for marketing something else has to make a billion + just for Disney to make up for a different films $200m loss.

Not true. The bar isn't as high as all of that. As an example, per Deadline, Mufasa netted $175m for Disney after grossing only $722m against a $200m budget.

If Stitch does as massively as people are thinking (against a very reasonable budget), it'll easily erase SW and then some.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Really well-liked within its fandom, but doesn’t have a broader cultural appeal like other four-quadrant type properties?

Exactly…a very ardent…but niche following that Hollywood assumes will upscale to mass…but doesn’t translate to the mass/foreign markets

The Chris Evans FF made $333M, or $550M inflation adjusted to today. I think it’ll clear that? Maybe?

I think it will clear…somewhere in that $500-$600 ish range

Now what will happen is they’ll get credit with a “depressed” budget - as seems to have happened with Captain falcon - and lauded…it’s very chic right now (even though these have been developed before Marvel started posting losers)…

But it’s not what big brother wants/expects

What’s that? Just use your brain…

They will “settle” for $700-800 for an mcu…frankly expect $1 bil + and believe that $1.5s should happen with regularity .

Why? Hubris. Blue ocean, quarterly pressure. The expectation of pushing ancillary sales.
And megamind at the helm. It’s all about the dude in the mirror.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Except what else would your scenario be about except Disney in the context of the conversation we were having, so I call BS on that.

You assume incorrectly. It was just a math example. Nothing more. Just to show box office gross does not mean a profit on movies. Drill back on the posts you will see.

It has nothing to do with Disney specifically.