Universal Epic Universe (South Expansion Complex) - Now Open!

[lentesta]

Illuminating the bat signal for @lentesta . On his latest podcast he was talking about the capacity of the parks. I don't remember everything he said, but I think he was saying the 2 stage shows really need almost constant shows for the park to have decent capacity.

Offenders of low capacity attractions included Dragon Racer's Rally, Fyre Drill, and Minecart Madness.

@Andrew25 is also doing good work here.

Below is my spreadsheet with upper limits on per-hour ride capacity. Comments welcome. The items in beige are things I'm not sure about. The items in gray are calculated from the other columns:

I'm using a couple of different ways to determine park capacity.

The first one, shown above, first calculates hourly capacity. Then it uses ratios of "guests on rides and in line" to "everyone in the park" from one of Disney's internal documents for DLR, MK, MGM, and Epcot. That's the 46 to 60% range shown above, giving a max capacity of somewhere between 30K and 40K. (If we used the MK's ratio it'd be almost exactly in the middle - 35K guests at any time.)

The second way I'm doing it looks like this:

• Determine the avergage wait in line across the park that Universal's willing to accept (e.g., 30, 45, 60, 75 minutes)
• Figure out how many guests would need to be in lines for that to happen
• Use the same 46-60% ratios from above.

For example, with an average wait across the park of 66 minutes, and assuming the relative popularity shown below, the right hand side shows park numbers:

I used DAK's peak ride numbers from last Christmas as a guide. (For example, what was the upper limit on wait times at Adventurers Outpost - a character greeting? Kali River Rapids - a water ride? Kilimanjaro Safaris vs Flight of Passage, etc.)

In this method, the park's peak capacity is somewhere between 33K and 44K, with a middle around 38K.

I would be surprised if Universal's going to accept an average actual wait in line of more than 70 minutes. Ministry and Monsters don't seem reliable enough yet for that scenario.

So both calculations put park capacity in the 35K to 38K range at any given time of day.

The other big dependency here is the ride cycle time. I haven't been back to measure unload/load time, and some of those numbers were pretty bad. Hopefully that's something they can work down.

 

[Weather_Lady]

@Andrew25 is also doing good work here.

Below is my spreadsheet with upper limits on per-hour ride capacity. Comments welcome. The items in beige are things I'm not sure about. The items in gray are calculated from the other columns:

View attachment 854001

I'm using a couple of different ways to determine park capacity.

The first one, shown above, first calculates hourly capacity. Then it uses ratios of "guests on rides and in line" to "everyone in the park" from one of Disney's internal documents for DLR, MK, MGM, and Epcot. That's the 46 to 60% range shown above, giving a max capacity of somewhere between 30K and 40K. (If we used the MK's ratio it'd be almost exactly in the middle - 35K guests at any time.)

The second way I'm doing it looks like this:

• Determine the avergage wait in line across the park that Universal's willing to accept (e.g., 30, 45, 60, 75 minutes)
• Figure out how many guests would need to be in lines for that to happen
• Use the same 46-60% ratios from above.

For example, with an average wait across the park of 66 minutes, and assuming the relative popularity shown below, the right hand side shows park numbers:
View attachment 854002

I used DAK's peak ride numbers from last Christmas as a guide. (For example, what was the upper limit on wait times at Adventurers Outpost - a character greeting? Kali River Rapids - a water ride? Kilimanjaro Safaris vs Flight of Passage, etc.)

In this method, the park's peak capacity is somewhere between 33K and 44K, with a middle around 38K.

I would be surprised if Universal's going to accept an average actual wait in line of more than 70 minutes. Ministry and Monsters don't seem reliable enough yet for that scenario.

So both calculations put park capacity in the 35K to 38K range at any given time of day.

The other big dependency here is the ride cycle time. I haven't been back to measure unload/load time, and some of those numbers were pretty bad. Hopefully that's something they can work down.

Hi, Mr. Testa!

Given what you know about the way the other Universal parks operate, do you have an estimate of what percentage of each ride's capacity will be going to Express Pass/Disabled Pass guests? I'm trying to wrap my head around what the capacity will be for standby riders.

 

[lentesta]

Hi, Mr. Testa!

Given what you know about the way the other Universal parks operate, do you have an estimate of what percentage of each ride's capacity will be going to Express Pass/Disabled Pass guests? I'm trying to wrap my head around what the capacity will be for standby riders.

Ha! It's Len, please.

I haven't looked at that yet. It's going to be only paid Express Pass at Epic, which is different than the other parks. So we don't have a good baseline for what that number is. We'll start counting in the next few days and I'll try to post something here.

 

[AidenRodriguez731]

Remember what I said a few pages ago about some people being negative just for the sake of being negative? Well this is that. Yes, all you can see in Berk is blank walls, trucks and fences.

When did I say that? Are you not able to take a joke for something that is definitely present. Here are some examples of the coaster being on the ground (or close to it) essentially yet seeing these exact things

 

[JT3000]

When did I say that? Are you not able to take a joke for something that is definitely present. Here are some examples of the coaster being on the ground (or close to it) essentially yet seeing these exact things

You do not need to show me the sightline issues for Wing Gliders. I already tore them apart myself earlier in this very thread. I called you out because not only have I yet you see you post a single thing that wasn't overtly negative, but now you're "joking" that an entire land is nothing but bad sightlines. It screams agenda.

 

[AidenRodriguez731]

You do not need to show me the sightline issues for Wing Gliders. I already tore them apart myself earlier in this very thread. I called you out because not only have I yet you see you post a single thing that wasn't overtly negative, but now you're "joking" that an entire land is nothing but bad sightlines. It screams agenda.

I've posted quite a few times that I like certain things about Epic so I don't know where you got that I've posted only negative things. Also agenda? What agenda man? I'm not secretly Bob Iger posting on Universal forms. I'm commenting on my overall disappointment with what could have been an amazing park being just a great park. The park has certainly been glazed enough where it doesn't need me saying "Wow Monsters is really good." another 20 times, as that's just the mainstream regular opinion and I come here to get more nuanced.

 

[AidenRodriguez731]

So that I'm not being completely negative, I will say this about the park:

1. Wizarding Paris seems very well done, the streets are well themed and the walkaround characters add a nice touch.
2. Berk seems like quite the fun land minus the sightline issues. I love HTTYD so it felt right that it finally got a land (which is why I'm more hard on this land since I'm a big fan of HTTYD). The characters are doing a great job, Toothless looks great, and it looks like a fun more "kid-suited" land.
3. Most of Monsters looks great as well, the village, castle, and tavern all make for very cool locations, love that there is that cemetery/crypt as well. The ride does look great as I got a higher quality POV.
4. Nintendo looks awesome and very kinetic which I love. I've never been a huge fan of Nintendo properties but this land does make me slightly more interested in them. DK coaster looks really solid and like a fun ride system.
5. Stardust looks like a really fun time and I love the dueling aspect, will definitely be excited to ride it in the coming years.
6. Most of the food of the park looks really good and like a clear step up from Universal's typical offerings.

 

[Lil Copter Cap]

I think the worst part, for me, is that you can literally just see right through a stupid fence in the first 10 seconds of the ride straight into backstage where cars/trucks are commonly seen driving...

I do want to add support for your sentiment about this land. It was the first of the four lands I experienced and it was a let down if we are talking about true 360-degree immersion. Dragon Racer's Rally was the first ride of the day (due to low wait time) and within the first 5 seconds, you immediately see backstage as well. I would've preferred one less ride if it meant true immersion in this space, as they claim.

Along the same sentiment: I'm frustrated that some folks here are giving a pass on the state of the industry when it comes to design. Especially when the design is from scratch where literally anything can be built. ANYTHING.

The "common guests won't care" mentality is what executives say to justify these budget cuts and ultimately ruin the overall immersion that they love to market. Step into these portals, turn around, and look at Universal Helios Grand Hotel, a Loews Hotel™ or continue walking forward and see the show building for the theatrical show.

I know common guests won't care. But you (aka Universal or Disney or whomever) don't get to claim immersion and theming "on another level" when it isn't.

This park has flaws. And I'm not here to ONLY tear it down. I enjoyed my day at the park. But to pretend it is flawless does this industry a disservice. Consumers deserve better if that is what is being claimed. These parks are works of art (built by brilliant artists and designer) that are not being given the support ($$) they deserve because executives want their bonuses.

And I acknowledge that building this park within its allotted time was a challenge. Materials got more expensive during the pandemic, budgets were over from the onset, Universal Creative was decimated with layoffs, and many other difficulties that I'm not at liberty to speak about.

But I will die on the hill (no matter how silly it may be to some) that despite all of the above, this park should've been more thoroughly thought through from a guest perspective. (Whether it be the immersion aspect or the operational mess they will run into if it happens to rain or lightning is spotted in the area and 7 of the 11 rides go down.)

 

[AidenRodriguez731]

I do want to add support for your sentiment about this land. It was the first of the four lands I experienced and it was a let down if we are talking about true 360-degree immersion. Dragon Racer's Rally was the first ride of the day (due to low wait time) and within the first 5 seconds, you immediately see backstage as well. I would've preferred one less ride if it meant true immersion in this space, as they claim.

Along the same sentiment: I'm frustrated that some folks here are giving a pass on the state of the industry when it comes to design. Especially when the design is from scratch where literally anything can be built. ANYTHING.

The "common guests won't care" mentality is what executives say to justify these budget cuts and ultimately ruin the overall immersion that they love to market. Step into these portals, turn around, and look at Universal Helios Grand Hotel, a Loews Hotel™ or continue walking forward and see the show building for the theatrical show.

I know common guests won't care. But you (aka Universal or Disney or whomever) don't get to claim immersion and theming "on another level" when it isn't.

This park has flaws. And I'm not here to ONLY tear it down. I enjoyed my day at the park. But to pretend it is flawless does this industry a disservice. Consumers deserve better if that is what is being claimed. These parks are works of art (built by brilliant artists and designer) that are not being given the support ($$) they deserve because executives want their bonuses.

And I acknowledge that building this park within its allotted time was a challenge. Materials got more expressive during the pandemic, budgets were over from the onset, Universal Creative was decimated with layoffs, and many other difficulties that I'm not at liberty to speak about.

But I will die on the hill (no matter how silly it may be to some) that despite all of the above, this park should've been more thoroughly thought through from a guest perspective. (Whether it be the immersion aspect or the operational mess they will run into if it happens to rain or lightning is spotted in the area and 7 of the 11 rides go down.)

Another great point, the park suffers the same problem as IOA which was never really fixed where a very few subset of rides are operational in true inclement weather. Feels like they went like 80%-90% of the way with the effort and just kinda let a lot of stuff slide (especially since this massive hype bubble got them a lot of leeway)
The park is advertised as a true immersion park. Universal claims "Five immersive worlds." and "Universal Epic Universe started as a doodle on a napkin nearly a decade ago. Inspired by the heavens, stars and constellations, the theme park offers an entirely new level of experience by immersing guests into five fully themed worlds. A whole new universe!"

You can't say these things and have visible trucks on the first 10 seconds of your Viking ride. That's not immersive. That's not a new level of experience.


I will say it's hard to give them that benefit of the doubt when parks fans were screaming for the last 3 or so years "Wow, look what Universal built in the time it took Disney to build Tron!!!!"

It's a solid park but I think a lot of people were somewhat expecting foreign park-level theming Universal/Disneys Japanese parks etc. When imo the themeing doesn't even surpass Hollywood Studios level of immersion, much less AK. It's an improvement on IOA definitely but I don't think its the ground-breaker Universal/fans were hyping it up to be.

 

[drew81]

My summary on recent activity in this thread:

Epic has sight line issues?
Yes.

Could these sight line issues be cured by faux rock work or berms?
Yes.

The Untrainable theater facade could be improved with the log/wood look placed on the front of the building facing the park?
Yes.

The park has some excellent attractions?
Yes.

The park needs an additional 3-4 (hopefully indoor)attractions to help with capacity?
Yes.

Everyone has their opinions and are entitled to them?
Yes.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

How rough is MU compared to FJ? Debating whether my wife can ride it as we preview it in a week or so. Thanks

 

[DKampy]

Why must there be tribalism at all?

Both parks(and really all) have their flaws. New parks tend to have a lot more boo boos by nature.

I have seen you critique every last Disney detail and then compare and contrast to how much more fantastic Universal is in many a thread on this site…. But then when people do the same towards Universal … it is unfair and unjust…. Despite those people still praising Universals new theme park Marvel…you rarely even reluctantly ever praise anything Disney does…. It feels like you are leading the way in tribalism

 

[Disney Analyst]

First and foremost, I do not condone attacking or insulting the person playing the role. They are doing their job. But to Universal I say, where is the character integrity?

 

[celluloid]

I have seen you critique every last Disney detail and then compare and contrast to how much more fantastic Universal is in many a thread on this site…. But then when people do the same towards Universal … it is unfair and unjust…. Despite those people still praising Universals new theme park Marvel…you rarely even reluctantly ever praise anything Disney does…. It feels like you are leading the way in tribalism

I appreciate the critique. Not a fan of many recent things Disney has done, particularly with MK, and I am far from extreme in that conclusion or rare.
I praise a new theme park on the scale from any in this climate, so that is naturally more forgivable. I am also honest about when Uni does ugly things that are below their own standards. For example, as much as I enjoy Velocicoaster it made a clash on JP theming with random JW corners. And Lost Continent being shuttered as itnis, is a blight. I also have been open about Uni making a mistake by cutting entertainment from Celestial Park and last year Volcano Bay.
Another great positive of Disney was making their theme parks completely smoke free. Something Uni really sucks at in comparison with even designated areas poorly placed.

Having to agree with a side, as another poster I quoted stated, is what aligns with concept of tribalism.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

This park has flaws. And I'm not here to ONLY tear it down. I enjoyed my day at the park. But to pretend it is flawless does this industry a disservice. Consumers deserve better if that is what is being claimed. These parks are works of art (built by brilliant artists and designer) that are not being given the support ($$) they deserve because executives want their bonuses.

I agree very much with your overall perspective, however I do think it needs to be said that the issue isn't money. This is the most expensive theme park ever built and it is not over-flowing with attractions, so presumably there was a way to design a park within that budget with more or less the same number of attractions that also took these issues into account. I don't really know if this is the case, but it all gives the impression that there is a mentality that exists somewhere within the process that it is nice to address these issues if you can but it is not essential.

 

[Tom Morrow]

First and foremost, I do not condone attacking or insulting the person playing the role. They are doing their job. But to Universal I say, where is the character integrity?

What is the issue here? (I've never seen the films)

 

[Andrew C]

What is the issue here? (I've never seen the films)

I have seen the first one and still don't get the issue...

 

[BrianLo]

Unfortunately they don’t seem to be getting the “best park in Orlando” word of mouth which is what’s probably needed to have any chance of a seismic change in travel patterns for central Florida.

This will service Universal loyalists, Potterheads (again), and theme park fans, but normies? I guess Nintendo might be the draw for them, maybe.

I don't know how one defines seismic in travel patterns.

I actually think Epic is quite good, but it has come at the expense of the other two. I don’t think Epic will have any issues bringing in crowds.

Shifts are not going to be dependent on Epic attendance, but rather the resort wide attendance and length of stay.

If they can’t get average length of stay to consistently exceed 3 days, we won’t see a reorganization in Florida. If they can’t get 6-7 day vacation packages as a recommended norm, nothing is changing in Florida. Which is absolutely not happening until they change ticketing. Locking in one day at Epic does not bring up length of stay even by a full day, it blends the average between people who actually extend their stay by a day and those who forgo their USF/IOA day or an Epic one. I realize single day tickets can be added on, but only us true psycho fans are probably doing that.

On attendance - if resort wide attendance fails to top 1.2X prior peaks (~21.75M -> 26M) I don’t think we’re remotely in seismic territory. 1.4X will be a big meaningful Orlando attendance shift, aka 30M USOR guests.

I’d call that seismic and I think we’re maybe a good 7-10 years away.

Hard to say without any idea of capped attendance numbers. Is it a success if it cannibalizes business from USF and that park drops below DHS? Really depends on how many travel packages get sold, etc.

USF (and IOA for that matter) are already behind DHS. I’m sure that gap worsened in 2024.

I don't think that it is going to cannibalize like people think, and far more are extending their stay than cannibalizing.

I don’t know what people think. But generally cannibalism until the first gate recovers in prior attendance patterns (aka 11M for either USF/IOA) takes a decade… on the optimistic end.

We might see 7.5-8M figures out of all three gates. Then IOA and USF get double squeezed by Epic and Disney finally starting their next cycle. Triple squeezed if the enonomy goes the way we all think it will.

 

[celluloid]

I have seen the first two and wondering what is wrong. Guest brought the Gorgu and the performer treated with respect while not contradicting.

 

[celluloid]

I actually think Epic is quite good, but it has come at the expense of the other two. I don’t think Epic will have any issues bringing in crowds.

Shifts are not going to be dependent on Epic attendance, but rather the resort wide attendance and length of stay.

If they can’t get average length of stay to consistently exceed 3 days, we won’t see a reorganization in Florida. If they can’t get 6-7 day vacation packages as a recommended norm, nothing is changing in Florida. Which is absolutely not happening until they change ticketing. Locking in one day at Epic does not bring up length of stay even by a full day, it blends the average between people who actually extend their stay by a day and those who forgo their USF/IOA day or an Epic one. I realize single day tickets can be added on, but only us true psycho fans are probably doing that.

On attendance - if resort wide attendance fails to top 1.2X prior peaks (~21.75M -> 26M) I don’t think we’re remotely in seismic territory. 1.4X will be a big meaningful Orlando attendance shift, aka 30M USOR guests.

I’d call that seismic and I think we’re maybe a 5-10 years away.



USF (and IOA for that matter) are already behind DHS. I’m sure that gap worsened in 2024.



I don’t know what people think. But generally cannibalism until the first gate recovers in prior attendance patterns (aka 11M for either USF/IOA) takes a decade… on the optimistic end.

We might see 7-8M figures out of all three gates. Then IOA and USF get double squeezed by Epic and Disney finally starting their next cycle. Triple squeezed if the enonomy goes the way we all think it will.

You have a lot of negative wishful thinking sprinkled in there. What evidence do you have that Epic's success has come at the expense of the other two theme parks on property? You are free to make a prediction but your beginning states like that is what has happened, and...not yet at all.