News Disney plans to accelerate Parks investment to $60 billion over 10 years

[MisterPenguin]

I had a thought. The figures being quoted as investment are obviously nonsense.

Would you like to layout a spreadsheet of announced spending v. what they say they intend to build and point out the obvious discrepancy for us?

Or, to use the form of argumentation that you just used, I'll just proclaim: It's obviously not nonsense.

SEC filings are backward looking statements.

Yes. And the point is that looking back at the financials -- as they're published quarter after quarter -- we can see the rate of Capex that has been invested quarter after quarter, year after year.

And what was announced is a continuation of that same rate of Capex investment.

So, when people start proclaiming "I DOUBT IT!!", they are questioning the status quo. A pretty stupid thing to do since, by definition, it's normal and continuing.

If Disney reneges on the Capex they've announced, it will immediately start showing up in the next two quarterly SEC filings.

That’s been part of my worry from the outset. There are a lot of non-sexy things that need to happen over the course of the next few years to make some of this possible. The ROA removal cannot be cheap, and any Monorail project (not sure how long the useful life of the current ye k system is) would be expensive, as would be temporary alternative modes of transport.

The $17B for WDW was specifically announced for new attractions (which does include refurbishment and replacement). Not for a new sewer system.

 

[Dranth]

Disney stock 82.54 --how low can you go????

Not that Disney doesn't have issues, but is there a US based travel stock that is doing well?

 

[BrianLo]

Not that Disney doesn't have issues, but is there a US based travel stock that is doing well?

Nope. At least this time it’s returning to prior lows in broader alignment with the larger market, rather than something super intrinsic to the company itself or the sector.

Though anything travel related has been extra hammered. We only ever get stock price updates when it’s low, of course.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Here's just another data point suggesting it's not just international travel, but domestic travel that is taking a hit due to economic uncertainty.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifesty...ummer-amid-economic-uncertainty-softer-demand

Basically, United cutting domestic capacity for July, August and September due to soft demand and reference to an earlier comment by Delta's CEO that "with broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled."

Whether this has all been engineered by Iger to get out of building the new Monster's Inc. coaster remains to be seen.

 

[Andrew C]

Here's just another data point suggesting it's not just international travel, but domestic travel that is taking a hit due to economic uncertainty.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifesty...ummer-amid-economic-uncertainty-softer-demand

Basically, United cutting domestic capacity for July, August and September due to soft demand and reference to an earlier comment by Delta's CEO that "with broad economic uncertainty around global trade, growth has largely stalled."

Whether this has all been engineered by Iger to get out of building the new Monster's Inc. coaster remains to be seen.

There are a few metrics I have seen that really don’t align. For instance, I saw metrics from certain travel industry companies that were predicting a softening of travel as early at last summer for 2025. Due to coming off the post Covid travel boom. But more recently, I saw metrics that show “intent to travel” this summer is trending higher than last summer. But then you also add in the recent stuff around uncertainty. It’s…interesting to say the least.

 

[Trauma]

Nope. At least this time it’s returning to prior lows in broader alignment with the larger market, rather than something super intrinsic to the company itself or the sector.

Though anything travel related has been extra hammered. We only ever get stock price updates when it’s low, of course.

Stock price hasn’t been high in 4 years.

I’ll be sure to give you an update when it is.

 

[Ztonyg]

There are a few metrics I have seen that really don’t align. For instance, I saw metrics from certain travel industry companies that were predicting a softening of travel as early at last summer for 2025. Due to coming off the post Covid travel boom. But more recently, I saw metrics that show “intent to travel” this summer is trending higher than last summer. But then you also add in the recent stuff around uncertainty. It’s…interesting to say the least.

I think people are intending to travel but a higher percentage of travel may be by car as opposed to aircraft.

 

[Lilofan]

I think people are intending to travel but a higher percentage of travel may be by car as opposed to aircraft.

FL needs tourists to support tourism which is a main revenue source which employs many directly and indirectly in this important industry. Mayor Buddy Dyer of Orlando has already expressed concern on the drop off of Canadian guests visiting Central Florida. If Canadians are boycotting vacationing in America ( for their reasons ) it surely is affecting Central Florida .

 

[Tha Realest]

This may be a wildly unpopular opinion, but I’m fine with a massive correction for the tourism industry. Post COVID-era use of recovery cash to take expensive vacations and Millennial detachment towards things in favor of “experiences” has really juiced this industry well beyond its value and inflation costs. Hotel prices, flight prices, and experiences like theme parks have gotten massively more expensive than they were in the mid to latter years of the 2010’s. Time for gravity to set in.

 

[Andrew C]

This may be a wildly unpopular opinion, but I’m fine with a massive correction for the tourism industry. Post COVID-era use of recovery cash to take expensive vacations and Millennial detachment towards things in favor of “experiences” has really juiced this industry well beyond its value and inflation costs. Hotel prices, flight prices, and experiences like theme parks have gotten massively more expensive than they were in the mid to latter years of the 2010’s. Time for gravity to set in.

I think the industry was always preparing for a readjustment this year, or return to normal, despite the latest circumstances. Someone can now ask the question, will the latest circumstances push things even further?

 

[JD80]

This may be a wildly unpopular opinion, but I’m fine with a massive correction for the tourism industry. Post COVID-era use of recovery cash to take expensive vacations and Millennial detachment towards things in favor of “experiences” has really juiced this industry well beyond its value and inflation costs. Hotel prices, flight prices, and experiences like theme parks have gotten massively more expensive than they were in the mid to latter years of the 2010’s. Time for gravity to set in.

A $90 hotel in 2015 is $124 today just due to inflation. Need to keep that frame of reference. A $130 hotel room is now just about $180.

Not sure we need to blame recovery cash and Millennials for this. Yall can't keep blaming Millennials for everything.

 

[JD80]

…and theme parks. On a Disney forum.

Ok, but the topic at hand was macro-economics and travel costs in general. If you want to say that Disney deluxe accommodations have skyrocketed to obscene levels you won't get an argument from me.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

I’m not rooting for destroying the economy.

I have a problem with how PE vultures are destroying the SWA experience. Why a very modest sleeping hotel *under construction* in Ft. Smith, AR a year and a half ago was almost $200 on a random weeknight. Why comparable trips to WDW or DL have essentially doubled from the price points of less than a decade ago. Why it’s difficult to find a room in mid-central Ohio for a few nights this July for under $400.

All of these prices were baked in months ago well before the tariffs occurred, mind you. But keep conflating things.

Leaving aside the other BS in your posts.

Just a search of a literally 30 second for Columbus, Ohio, about as mid/central in Ohio as you can get for the week of July 20-26 gives your.

The Capital Suites Hotel $178 per night
Hotel LeVeque $227 per night
The Plaza Hotel at Capital Square $145 per night
The Westin Great Souther Columbus $200 per night.

I mean if your going to just spew nonsense, at least try harder so that someone sitting on the can with an Iphone and the Marriot Bonvoy App can't debunk in less time than it takes to take a dump.

 

[osian]

Just adding my 2p worth! I stayed at Wilderness Lodge in 2014.

3rd November 2014 for 7 nights: £1,730 (£241/$319 per night)
3rd November 2025 for 7 nights: £3,755 (£536/$710 per night)

The Bank of England inflation calculator says this should have been £2,355 by 2025.

An increase of 217% in 11 years, way way above inflation.

 

[SamusAranX]

Yes, high travel prices are annoying.

What’s happening now isn’t going to fix that.

Saying you’re “fine” with a “massive correction” in the tourism industry in response to comments about national economic collapse seems a bit like saying you’re fine with getting a haircut in a thread about decapitation.

PS: As a guy who has been to “mid-central Ohio” in the Summer, I’m a bit skeptical of that price point.

Actually he’s a bit higher then what I’ve seen but I’m going to cedar point in August and I’ve noticed the Airbnb’s and hotels are quite higher then when I last went pre-covid. So exaggeration aside, prices have outpaced inflation and then some

That said, I’m not rooting for the economy to fail, but alot of the post covid tourist boom was fueled by using debt to travel. Some of it surely is paid off by now. But what that behavior is reinforcing is this: it seems many failed to learn from the Great Recession: do not live beyond your means.

 

[BrianLo]

In WDW perspective, to be at a normal healthy P/E ratio WDW stock price will need to be cut by half or double their earnings.

It has actually come down quite a bit since we talked about it last Fall. Down to 27.

With the Reliance/India impairment charge baked in from the Fall, I think we’ve reached your target.

Which is a big change from when the stock was trading around this dollar figure (80’s) a couple years ago and was a P/E of 90+.

 

[Nubs70]

DIS has a bit to go yet. Bit the stock market as a whole has a way to drop yet to get healthy. Does my 401k like it? Not so much. The run up of the Dow over the last few years is like a truck driver on meth. High performing? Yes. Healthy, not so much.

 

[Nubs70]

Actually he’s a bit higher then what I’ve seen but I’m going to cedar point in August and I’ve noticed the Airbnb’s and hotels are quite higher then when I last went pre-covid. So exaggeration aside, prices have outpaced inflation and then some

They said I’m not rooting for the economy to fail, but lot of the post covid tourist boom was fueled by using debt to travel. Some of it surely is paid off by now. But what the behavior is reinforcing is that it seems many failed to learn from the Great Recession: do not live beyond your means.

Not so much post covid prosinal debt but the fruits of post covid institutionalized debt plucked from the Magic Money Tree.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A $90 hotel in 2015 is $124 today just due to inflation. Need to keep that frame of reference. A $130 hotel room is now just about $180.

Not sure we need to blame recovery cash and Millennials for this. Yall can't keep blaming Millennials for everything.

Millennials aren’t even close to the top of list as far as stupid spending in parks that encourage bad management that’s slowing knocking the feet out from under the business model

 

[Agent H]

Millennials aren’t even close to the top of list as far as stupid spending in parks that encourage bad management that’s slowing knocking the feet out from under the business model

Then who is?