Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[erasure fan1]

As has been said many times over in this and other threads, the problem is that a movie doesn't stop making money when it leaves theaters. So a movie's actual profit is through its entire lifecycle, not just box office. That is why ancillary revenue cannot just be thrown out, no matter how many times some around here try to discount it.

That's why some of us talk about profit in the theatrical window. It's too hard to compare movies with merchandising, streaming revenue, vod... Sure those all count, but we know less about those numbers than anything. We have a hard enough time nailing down budget, theater splits and marketing. I wish we would get accurate numbers on the other stuff. But that's never really going to happen.

 

[Disney Irish]

That's why some of us talk about profit in the theatrical window. It's too hard to compare movies with merchandising, streaming revenue, vod... Sure those all count, but we know less about those numbers than anything. We have a hard enough time nailing down budget, theater splits and marketing. I wish we would get accurate numbers on the other stuff. But that's never really going to happen.

I think the closest we're going get is when Deadline does its annual profit/loss breakdown estimate.

But I agree it really is getting hard to even do the box office these days, as so much is unknown. Something that might on the face seems like a loss, but ends up being a success if you do the calculations a different way or use different splits. Its why this insistence by some that xyz movie "must" have cost more or whatever just because they don't want it to show $1 of profit is silly, and why this thread isn't about the box office anymore its about grievance airing and gloating.

 

[DKampy]

Whoa, is that all???

.... But ... But the apologists have been acting like it's been a raging success. Slagging off Sonic 3, which actually made more of a profit.

So I guess Sonic did win!

What was Sonic’s profit compared to Mufasa….I would guess less as Mufasa box office certainly surpassed the 50 million budget it had over sonic

 

[DKampy]

But I agree it really is getting hard to even do the box office these days, as so much is unknown.

Especially since it feels like studios are using theatrical as a means to advertise streaming for some movies

 

[MickeyMouse10]

I knew that Mufasa would get a bigger box office than Sonic 3. But thankfully Sonic beat it where it counts, the profit.

The main reason I wanted Sonic to win is Retconning. I don't like when movies Retcon things from the originals. Mufasa and Scar will always be biological brothers to me, Obi-Wan knew Anakin was Darth Vader, Leia didn't know Obi-Wan and the Police had guns in E.T. not walkie talkies.

... Oh yeah the other reason is that the movie looks horrible. So plain and drabby looking, nothing like the original animated movie.

 

[erasure fan1]

I think the closest we're going get is when Deadline does its annual profit/loss breakdown estimate.

Very true. That's why I don't factor it, as we all know no ones going back to it maybe a year later. The best we can do, and I've said before there's plenty margin of error, is look at the theatrical window. Where the back and forth really happens is when an absolute is declared, either way, when the estimates are within 10/20 +/- million or so. That's really a push overall.

 

[Disney Irish]

What was Sonic’s profit compared to Mufasa….I would guess less as Mufasa box office certainly surpassed the 50 million budget it had over sonic

It honestly depends on how much you calculate for marketing, as both had a big marketing push I would assume that both spent about the same.

So if you say both spent about $100M on marketing, using the 60/40 splits Mufasa got more profit.

Mufasa - $200 Production, $100 Marketing, $153 Domestic, $186 Overseas = ~$39M profit
Sonic - $122 Production, $100 Marketing, $142 Domestic, $102 Overseas = ~$22M profit

But if you say that Sonic somehow only spent 50% of production budget and got cheap marketing buys, it got ~$60M profit just beating Mufasa.

 

[Disney Irish]

Very true. That's why I don't factor it, as we all know no ones going back to it maybe a year later. The best we can do, and I've said before there's plenty margin of error, is look at the theatrical window. Where the back and forth really happens is when an absolute is declared, either way, when the estimates are within 10/20 +/- million or so. That's really a push overall.

Personally I don't deal in absolutes, this is all opinion to me. As this isn't our money we're talking about.

 

[erasure fan1]

Personally I don't deal in absolutes, this is all opinion to me. As this isn't our money we're talking about.

I meant in general. I've seen, "it fell 10mil short!!! Fail!" But I've also seen, "plus 10mil! Success!" Both are a wash in my opinion. Way to close to call. Now if a person wants to say it was a push and make the argument that, was Disney happy or not with the results? That's a big part of a discussion forum. Neither side can win, because no one really knows but Disney. It's all just what we think.

 

[Disney Irish]

Mufasa and Scar will always be biological brothers

Not to rehash this whole thing, but this wasn't even the case in 1989. The director and producer of the original said they weren't even biological brothers. So this wasn't a retcon, it was always intended even if not implied that they weren't biological brothers.

Back in 2017 a full 7 years before Mufasa came out -

https://www.business-standard.com/article/news-ani/lion-king-director-reveals-shocking-truth-about-mufasa-and-scar-117082100470_1.html

 

[BrianLo]

We really need to figure out (standardize) a way of calculating profit/loss in this thread, some people include ancillary revenue, some don’t, some just do a 50/50 BO split, others break it down to regions… it’s far too confusing.

Not that it matters (as it’s not our money) but I’d have Mufasa closer to a $60 million BO profit for Disney. 1/2 of $720 million going to Disney ($360m) minus $300m budget.

I still have SW down $200m using a similar BO only calculation, $300m total budget, $200m total BO revenue, Disneys cut about $100m.

So many apples to oranges comparisons.

I have it more like 110+. Maybe heavy on the plus since it really swelled in the back half and that may make the backend more asymmetric than usual.

Good news is we can swing back around to this one pretty shortly. Deadline’s box office tournament with more granular details will kick off in May.

 

[BrianLo]

That's why some of us talk about profit in the theatrical window. It's too hard to compare movies with merchandising, streaming revenue, vod... Sure those all count, but we know less about those numbers than anything. We have a hard enough time nailing down budget, theater splits and marketing. I wish we would get accurate numbers on the other stuff. But that's never really going to happen.

We’ll never get official granular details, but we do get quarterly statements out of the company where we can see how the studios are doing blended together.

I’ve run the comps over the last few years. For example the much touted billion+ 2023 loss was half that.

What I do know is TP under-calls everything consistently by 50M+ because he uses a 3X multiplier without realizing it. So at least if he calls something profitable, it’s definitely profitable. Even 2.5X generally is a cautious under-call.

 

[Disney Irish]

In June at France's Annecy Film Festival Disney will be previewing several films including Zootopia 2, Elio, Toy Story 5, and Hoppers, and a few others -

Disney to Preview ‘Zootopia 2,’ ‘Elio,’ ‘Toy Story 5’ and More at This Year’s Annecy Festival

Walt Disney Studios, Pixar, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Disney Television Animation and 20th Television Animation will present together at this year's Annecy.

variety.com

So be careful of spoilers coming out from that if you care about that kind of thing.

 

[coffeefan]

 

[easyrowrdw]

Discussion of box office often seems to be a cover for airing other grievances.

I got a lot of problems with you people! And now you're gonna hear about it!

 

[coffeefan]

 

[Tony the Tigger]

$153 Domestic, $186 Overseas =

?

Mufasa is at $722m worldwide.

 

[Disney Irish]

?

Mufasa is at $722m worldwide.

Its the 60/40 split of what Disney takes home after the cuts with the theaters.

 

[Disney Irish]

TLDR: Only go to the more expensive premium theaters so we get lots and lot of money.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Overheard…