Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I wonder what the Disney contracts dictate with companies like Mattel, Hasbro, etc?

They are probably fed up with much of their Star Wars, Marvel, and Disney products ending up in clearance aisles just to get rid of the inventory. Disney is missing out on licensing revenue but the toy companies are the ones losing real money on unsold products.

thisee right a here

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Remember in 2023 and 2024 the blame was so often still "That is Chapek Leftover" and then HM movie was produced and it quieted down...and now years later we are here.

…almost like that was complete ?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If stitch is even “passable”…not good…just not groan worthy…it’s gonna rake

This is my upbeat prediction of the year…don’t expect any others because they have nothing coming to warrant it

 

[Andrew C]

Snow White is legit popular, and the live-action version of Snow White has not bashed the OG version.

Why are you stalking me?

 

[BrianLo]

Then the “good thing” was to pull the plug early and cut bait

…are you kidding with this?

We’ve been over this. They’d already spent 270M by the end of 2023 (as in 16 months ago). Pulling the plug wouldn’t produce a better financial outcome. Only not making it in the first place.

Loses are estimated by deadline at 115M, which I actually think is low. But it’s not 270M.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

We’ve been over this. They’d already spent 270M by the end of 2023. Pulling the plug wouldn’t produce a better financial outcome. Only not making it in the first place.

Loses are estimated by deadline at 115M, which I actually think is low. But it’s not 270M.

That article seems optimistic now at a $225 million box office but I agree they were doomed no matter what they did, write it off and lose a couple hundred million, release it and lose a couple hundred million… they were in so deep I don’t think they had a choice but to release it and hope it found an audience.

Most forecasts still had it in the $300-400 million range also, in hindsight it’s debatable but at time of release there was no financial benefit to not releasing it.

 

[Disstevefan1]

We’ve been over this. They’d already spent 270M by the end of 2023 (as in 16 months ago). Pulling the plug wouldn’t produce a better financial outcome. Only not making it in the first place.

Loses are estimated by deadline at 115M, which I actually think is low. But it’s not 270M.

They got to keep Snow in theaters as long as they can to squeeze every last dollar out of it in my opinion.

 

[BrianLo]

That article seems optimistic now at a $225 million box office but I agree they were doomed no matter what they did, write it off and lose a couple hundred million, release it and lose a couple hundred million… they were in so deep I don’t think they had a choice but to release it and hope it found an audience.

Indeed, hence why I said it was “good” they at least realized it was doomed and didn’t make a ton of merch. Unlike say Wish, which they clearly thought had better prospects up until the end.

I really think its loss will be closer to 200m

Nuance, I know you get it!

 

[Disstevefan1]

No one will ever know how much Snow lost and this is true for all money losing movies, There is no incentive to tell the world what a poor job was done for any movie, for any studio.

Who knows, within the walls of a given studio if they even know? If folks can move money around within a studio to make a loss look like less of a loss to try to keep their job etc..

 

[Disney Irish]

It filmed in The U.K., so we'll get the budget eventually. Because they'll want the tax break. They still won't make a profit from it, but the loss would be less.

The budget has to be 300+.

The budget doesn't have to be anything, that is just your opinion on what you believe it is. But that doesn't mean its the actual reality, your "guess" of what it is could be way off in either direction.

Also as much as you think the UK tax filings are going to vindicate you, I think you're going to find its not as interesting a number as you believe its going to be. Because as more stuff happens in the UK the more tax break they get, ie their costs goes down by more overall.

 

[Disstevefan1]

It filmed in The U.K., so we'll get the budget eventually. Because they'll want the tax break. They still won't make a profit from it, but the loss would be less.

The budget has to easily be 300+.

Snow is of course a big loss financially. Iger is still happy with the movie calling Snow number 1 in the world.

But, lets face it, what else can he say? This is his job!

 

[TP2000]

Mufasa is still in a couple dozen theaters pulling in a few hundred bucks per day heading in to Easter weekend, but I don't think we should wait any longer to do a final summary that Christmas movie.

Mufasa made about $40 Million in profit.

I think this is a good example of how daunting those huge $200+ Million production budgets are for all of Disney's various flagship studios. You really need to get closer to a Billion in global box office to start pulling in decent profit for mega-budgets like Mufasa. Especially when you consider the foreign box office generally nets an American studio only about 40% of the ticket sales, compared to the 60% of ticket sales American box office sends to Burbank.

Here's how that 2024 money maker looked for Burbank...

Mufasa: $200 Production, $100 Marketing, $153 Domestic, $186 Overseas = $39 Million Profit

Mufasa: The Lion King (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Mufasa: The Lion King (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Mufasa is still in a couple dozen theaters pulling in a few hundred bucks per day heading in to Easter weekend, but I don't think we should wait any longer to do a final summary that Christmas movie.

Mufasa made about $40 Million in profit.

I think this is a good example of how daunting those huge $200+ Million production budgets are for all of Disney's various flagship studios. You really need to get closer to a Billion in global box office to start pulling in decent profit for mega-budgets like Mufasa. Especially when you consider the foreign box office generally nets an American studio only about 40% of the ticket sales, compared to the 60% of ticket sales American box office sends to Burbank.

Here's how that 2024 money maker looked for Burbank...

Mufasa: $200 Production, $100 Marketing, $153 Domestic, $186 Overseas = $39 Million Profit

View attachment 853586

Mufasa: The Lion King (2024) - Financial Information

Financial analysis of Mufasa: The Lion King (2024) including budget, domestic and international box office gross, DVD and Blu-ray sales reports, total earnings and profitability.

www.the-numbers.com

We really need to figure out (standardize) a way of calculating profit/loss in this thread, some people include ancillary revenue, some don’t, some just do a 50/50 BO split, others break it down to regions… it’s far too confusing.

Not that it matters (as it’s not our money) but I’d have Mufasa closer to a $60 million BO profit for Disney. 1/2 of $720 million going to Disney ($360m) minus $300m budget.

I still have SW down $200m using a similar BO only calculation, $300m total budget, $200m total BO revenue, Disneys cut about $100m.

So many apples to oranges comparisons.

 

[Disney Irish]

We really need to figure out (standardize) a way of calculating profit/loss in this thread, some people include ancillary revenue, some don’t, some just do a 50/50 BO split, others break it down to regions… it’s far too confusing.

Not that it matters (as it’s not our money) but I’d have Mufasa closer to a $60 million BO profit for Disney. 1/2 of $720 million going to Disney ($360m) minus $300m budget.

I still have SW down $200m using a similar BO only calculation, $300m total budget, $200m total BO revenue, Disneys cut about $100m.

So many apples to oranges comparisons.

As has been said many times over in this and other threads, the problem is that a movie doesn't stop making money when it leaves theaters. So a movie's actual profit is through its entire lifecycle, not just box office. That is why ancillary revenue cannot just be thrown out, no matter how many times some around here try to discount it.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Whoa, is that all???

.... But ... But the apologists have been acting like it's been a raging success. Slagging off Sonic 3, which actually made more of a profit.

So I guess Sonic did win!

Hey, beggars cant be choosers! Making $1 is BETTER than losing money!!!!

Disney would welcome making $1 on Snow!!!!

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

As has been said many times over in this and other threads, the problem is that a movie doesn't stop making money when it leaves theaters. So a movie's actual profit is through its entire lifecycle, not just box office. That is why ancillary revenue cannot just be thrown out, no matter how many times some around here try to discount it.

I agree to a certain extent but we’re in a box office thread looking at primarily the theatrical run of a movie, everything beyond that is conjecture, we’ll never know how much merch a movie sold, or how many plushes it sold, or the streaming revenue breakdown. Without a baseline of what we’re actually comparing it’s always going to be just random apples to oranges comparisons of random guesses at unknown income.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

We really need to figure out (standardize) a way of calculating profit/loss in this thread, some people include ancillary revenue, some don’t, some just do a 50/50 BO split, others break it down to regions… it’s far too confusing.

It's easy.

If one likes a movie and want to praise it, it's profitable.

If one wants to criticize a movie for any reason, it lost money because that's one more point against it.

I'm joking, but also sort of not joking.

Discussion of box office often seems to be a cover for airing other grievances.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

I agree to a certain extent but we’re in a box office thread looking at primarily the theatrical run of a movie, everything beyond that is conjecture, we’ll never know how much merch a movie sold, or how many plushes it sold, or the streaming revenue breakdown. Without a baseline of what we’re actually comparing it’s always going to be just random apples to oranges comparisons of random guesses at unknown income.

Theatrical profit/loss is mostly conjecture too. The cost of making a movie, for example, might be inflated because Disney pays ILM, which they own, to do the special effects.

A movie that breaks even isn't the goal for Disney, but it's a win in terms of long term benefit, and that cannot be ignored.

 

[Disney Irish]

I agree to a certain extent but we’re in a box office thread looking at primarily the theatrical run of a movie, everything beyond that is conjecture, we’ll never know how much merch a movie sold, or how many plushes it sold, or the streaming revenue breakdown. Without a baseline of what we’re actually comparing it’s always going to be just random apples to oranges comparisons of random guesses at unknown income.

In the end this is all just academic for discussion purposes as so much of it is unknown. And as mentioned by Wendy, especially lately, is mostly for those airing whatever their latest grievance is against Disney.

 

[erasure fan1]

As has been said many times over in this and other threads, the problem is that a movie doesn't stop making money when it leaves theaters. So a movie's actual profit is through its entire lifecycle, not just box office. That is why ancillary revenue cannot just be thrown out, no matter how many times some around here try to discount it.

That's why some of us talk about profit in the theatrical window. It's too hard to compare movies with merchandising, streaming revenue, vod... Sure those all count, but we know less about those numbers than anything. We have a hard enough time nailing down budget, theater splits and marketing. I wish we would get accurate numbers on the other stuff. But that's never really going to happen.