Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

66% drop. 100m domestic is off the table.

Wow. You think? Maybe... just throwing it out... it has a second week of children on Spring Break and gets towards $85 Million by its third weekend? Then it could possibly get to $125 Million by the time it leaves theaters at the end of April.

I dunno, it does look bleak. We had gone into this box office discussion 10 days ago with a downgraded assumption it would get $150 Million domestic and around $300 Million globally, and that number was disastrous. Now we're talking $250 Million or less domestically?

This failure is going to dig a hole for Burbank's break even point for the rest of the year. They'll need some really big hits to climb out of a $250 Million crater left by Snow White. Ah, Miss Zegler... your box office talents know no bounds it seems!

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Lets do some glorious wrongly rounded, arm wavingly BSed calculations!

$14,200,000 for the 3 day weekend -> (3 days)
$4,733,333 per day -> (4,200 theatres)
$1,127 per theatre per day -> (lets use 3 screen average since I've noticed the multiplexes have cut the # of screens they're wasting on Snow)
$375 per screen per day -> (~$11.50 USA average movie ticket price)
33 people per screen per day -> (say... what... 4 average showings per screen per day??)
~8 people per showing

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Problem with approval ratings though is they are such a small sample size, in the thousands compared to the millions who may actually have an opinion one way or the other.

It also assumes that people would be ok with her comments if they disapprove, I loathe our neighbors Gov but there’s a difference between saying he’s an idiot and saying I hope Californians never know peace, I have a ton of friends in CA, many who voted for him, but they’re still my friends and I don’t wish ill on them, so even though I disapprove of the person I’d still take offense to the comment as repulsive.

 

[Agent H]

Wow. You think? Maybe... just throwing it out... it has a second week of children on Spring Break and gets towards $85 Million by its third weekend? Then it could possibly get to $125 Million by the time it leaves theaters at the end of April.

I dunno, it does look bleak. We had gone into this box office discussion 10 days ago with a downgraded assumption it would get $150 Million domestic and around $300 Million globally, and that number was disastrous. Now we're talking $250 Million or less domestically?

This failure is going to dig a hole for Burbank's break even point for the rest of the year. They'll need some really big hits to climb out of a $250 Million crater left by Snow White. Ah, Miss Zegler... your box office talents know no bounds it seems!

Well I’m betting on at least 3 big hitters so I don’t think they’ll have a problem.

 

[TP2000]

First pass estimates are in for Snow White's overseas performance on her second weekend. As a reminder, Snow White opened in all international markets on the same Thursday/Friday that it did in the USA. There's no overseas markets left to open.

Judging by the second weekend drop in foreign lands, it does appear Snow White is headed much less than $300 Million globally. Maybe $250 Million if they're lucky? That's an... Oof.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

First pass estimates are in for Snow White's overseas performance on her second weekend. As a reminder, Snow White opened in all international markets on the same Thursday/Friday that it did in the USA. There's no overseas markets left to open.

Judging by the second weekend drop in foreign lands, it does appear Snow White is headed much less than $300 Million globally. Maybe $250 Million if they're lucky? That's an... Oof.

View attachment 850848

Did better internationally than domestically this week, that should help in the long run. I was starting to question if it would be a 50/50 split and struggle to even break $200 million but now that it’s starting to look a little more normal (40/60) on the dom/intl breakdown I think $250 is still realistic.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Wow. You think? Maybe... just throwing it out... it has a second week of children on Spring Break and gets towards $85 Million by its third weekend? Then it could possibly get to $125 Million by the time it leaves theaters at the end of April.

I dunno, it does look bleak. We had gone into this box office discussion 10 days ago with a downgraded assumption it would get $150 Million domestic and around $300 Million globally, and that number was disastrous. Now we're talking $250 Million or less domestically?

This failure is going to dig a hole for Burbank's break even point for the rest of the year. They'll need some really big hits to climb out of a $250 Million crater left by Snow White. Ah, Miss Zegler... your box office talents know no bounds it seems!

I'm just commenting on the whisperings of the internet... they always go lower... and lower... and box office peeps who make a hobby of it are now saying 100m domestic is extremely out of the question. The conversation seems to be that with Minecraft coming... kids will obsess over it (regardless of its quality) and there'll be zero interest for Snow moving forward...

 

[TP2000]

Per The Hollywood Reporter this morning, just before they slipped off to brunch in Silver Lake, the steep drop in box office for Snow White its second weekend has changed some of the phrasing industry sources are using to describe it.

Snow White reporting is no longer using the F word (flop) to describe it, it's now using the even worse B word (bomb).

That's a notable change for Hollywood industry sources to shift to on its second week.

Box Office Upset: Blue-Collar Drama ‘A Working Man’ Beats ‘Snow White’ With $15M Opening

The dismal performance of 'Snow White' in its second weekend is more bad news for Disney and puts the live-action pic in official bomb territory after falling off a steep 66 percent.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[Disney Irish]

It also assumes that people would be ok with her comments if they disapprove, I loathe our neighbors Gov but there’s a fine line between saying he’s an idiot and saying I hope Californians never know peace, I have a ton of friends in CA, many who voted for him, but they’re still my friends and I don’t wish ill on them.

That also though makes the assumption that she was wishing harm, or ill as you say, on people, which I do not make that assumption. Never know peace can also mean to wrestle with ones decisions, and that is what I take her post to mean. Because I don't think she was actually wishing harm on anyone, no matter how dumb it was to post anything at all.

I know we've been trained over the last decade or two to just automatically find hate in the "other sides" comments, but I wish that wouldn't be the first knee jerk reaction by everyone.

 

[LittleBuford]

I’m not sure why some here are treating it as hush-hush or newly emerging news that the film has flopped spectacularly. We all know it has; absolutely no-one is suggesting otherwise.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

What is Disney's contract with theaters? I recall hearing that Disney was particularly brutal with theaters requiring they show their movies for a longer period than other studios. I wonder a couple things-

1) What is this period? I assume that as soon as that point hits that theaters will drop it like a stone.

2) I wonder if Disney's recent performance will allow theaters to fight this when contracts renew (not like the theatres have anything to stand on).

Per The Hollywood Reporter this morning, just before they slipped off to brunch in Silver Lake, the steep drop in box office for Snow White its second weekend has changed some of the phrasing industry sources are using to describe it.

Snow White reporting is no longer using the F word (flop) to describe it, it's now using the even worse B word (bomb).

That's a notable change for Hollywood industry sources to shift to on its second week.

Box Office Upset: Blue-Collar Drama ‘A Working Man’ Beats ‘Snow White’ With $15M Opening

The dismal performance of 'Snow White' in its second weekend is more bad news for Disney and puts the live-action pic in official bomb territory after falling off a steep 66 percent.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

It has been noticed online that certain Disney 'friendly' organizations are no longer using Dumbo as a comparison in their articles. Because it's now underperforming Dumbo.

I’m not sure why some here are treating it as hush-hush or newly emerging news that the film has flopped spectacularly. We all know it has; absolutely no-one is suggesting otherwise.

No one is treating anything as hush-hush about the film flopping horrifically and no one has said anyone has suggested otherwise. I'm here to discuss the thread topic. Care to partake?

 

[TP2000]

I’m not sure why some here are treating it as hush-hush or newly emerging news that the film has flopped spectacularly. We all know it has; absolutely no-one is suggesting otherwise.

It was already a flop 10 days ago when it was heading to $150 Million domestically and $300 Million globally.

This afternoon, after a second weekend of box office has been freshly reported, it's now a "bomb" that is heading to less than $125 Million domestically and maybe $250 Million globally. That's disastrously bad box office, which merits the new title of "bomb" instead of merely being a flop.

Snow White Bombs as Jason Statham’s A Working Man Explodes | Cosmic Book News

Snow White crashes at the box office while Jason Statham’s A Working Man surprises with strong numbers and action-packed thrills.

cosmicbook.news

 

[LittleBuford]

Not to go off on even more of a tangent, but Polls in the US over the past decade have been notoriously inaccurate in both directions.

This isn't true.

The Polls Are All Right

With the 2018 midterm elections approaching, we’ve updated FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings for the first time since the 2016 presidential primaries. Based on…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[Disney Irish]

What is Disney's contract with theaters? I recall hearing that Disney was particularly brutal with theaters requiring they show their movies for a longer period than other studios. I wonder a couple things-

1) What is this period? I assume that as soon as that point hits that theaters will drop it like a stone.

2) I wonder if Disney's recent performance will allow theaters to fight this when contracts renew (not like the theatres have anything to stand on).

I don't think one or two movies performing badly is going to cause a change. If 2023 wasn't enough, then certainly this isn't either.

Theaters are begging for longer engagements by Studios anyways, so they aren't going to be pushing things out if other Studios are having their theatrical windows less that Disney's.

AMC Theatres Wants to Turn Back the Clock

As moviegoing lags, the mega chain hopes to push studios back to at least a 45-day theatrical window.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[TP2000]

It has been noticed online that certain Disney 'friendly' organizations are no longer using Dumbo as a comparison in their articles. Because it's now underperforming Dumbo.

Oh, you're right.

With this second week of box office numbers now in, the performance mirroring Dumbo is now off the table, with or without adjusting for inflation.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I’m not sure why some here are treating it as hush-hush or newly emerging news that the film has flopped spectacularly. We all know it has; absolutely no-one is suggesting otherwise.

I think it’s just worse than most of us expected, had someone suggested 2 weeks ago that it might struggle to do $200 million worldwide I think we’d have all said they were crazy. After opening night I revised my estimate from $400m to 300m, that was 8 days ago, the fact we’re now talking about whether it’ll hit $200-$250m just a week later is wild.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I don't think one or two movies performing badly is going to cause a change. If 2023 wasn't enough, then certainly this isn't either.

Theaters are begging for longer engagements by Studios anyways, so they aren't going to be pushing things out if other Studios are having their theatrical windows less that Disney's.

AMC Theatres Wants to Turn Back the Clock

As moviegoing lags, the mega chain hopes to push studios back to at least a 45-day theatrical window.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

I’d hate to be a theater owner right now, there’s so few big movies coming out there’s nothing to replace it with, whether it stays or goes they’re kind of screwed either way.

Better to have a theater with 8 people in it (and drinks and popcorn) than have it sitting empty though.

 

[Disney Irish]

This isn't true.

The Polls Are All Right

With the 2018 midterm elections approaching, we’ve updated FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings for the first time since the 2016 presidential primaries. Based on…

fivethirtyeight.com

We continue to get into the weeds here, and off on an ever growing tangent. But surprise surprise from a site that tracks polling.

But its been famously talked about over the last decade. As the sample sizes are so small they don't often reflect the actual pulse of the nation.

You can actually find a report done post-2020 that shows how inaccurate they have been.

Why do election polls seem to have such a mixed track record? — Harvard Gazette

Democratic industry veteran looks at past races, details adjustments made amid shifting political dynamics in nation.

news.harvard.edu

 

[LittleBuford]

I think it’s just worse than most of us expected, had someone suggested 2 weeks ago that it might struggle to do $200 million worldwide I think we’d have all said they were crazy. After opening night I revised my estimate from $400m to 300m, that was 8 days ago, the fact we’re now talking about whether it’ll hit $200-$250m just a week later is wild.

I agree it’s worse than expected, but the “Rumour has it” and “In a surprise twist” framing makes little sense now that the news of its failure has been very firmly established.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’d hate to be a theater owner right now, there’s so few big movies coming out there’s nothing to replace it with, whether it stays or goes they’re screwed either way.

Better to have a theater with 8 people in it (and drinks and popcorn) than have it sitting empty.

Yep, and unless other Studios reverse course on their less than 45 day theatrical window (Universal I'm looking at you with your 17 day window) theater owners are going to stick with Disney with their average of 70+ days, no matter how bad those movies do.