Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[erasure fan1]

I'm not digging at all, or being disingenuous. You're taking different meaning into my post than what was intended. So I have nothing to apologize for as the reader bears responsibility for taking different meaning than what the author intended. You're taking "insulted" here to mean those offended. When I'm clearly talking about those whom the post was supposedly insulting, hence the first paragraph. Which you again left off your quote because you're trying to pick a fight. Context matters which is why you cannot just take a piece of a post out of that context and try to find different meaning, something you often like to do.

I don't know how many people were actually offended, which is why I never was talking about that in the first place. For all I know only 10% of people in the entire country were actually offended.

Great than. Everything you interpreted of what I said was completely wrong. So all you've said is invalid. See how that works? I guess we just both need to get better at interpretation.

 

[Disney Irish]

Great than. Everything you interpreted of what I said was completely wrong. So all you've said is invalid. See how that works? I guess we just both need to get better at interpretation.

Once again not everything is about you. I wasn’t talking specifically about you or your posts, so stop taking everything so personally and trying to pick fights. It was a general comment about all who have framed her post as insulting half the country, when clearly it wasn’t.

 

[BrianLo]

And that's a fine answer. The issue in this whole thing is hypocrisy. I respect you saying you'd guess it's upwards of 75%. You might be right. But your answer would be no more right than me saying it potentially offended half the country. I could be right too. Neither one of us has data on everyone. I don't want to be lectured about not having facts, only to be countered with made up facts. And the post I was replying to was clearly saying 25% of the public, not voting public. And that's just as made up as anything.

I’d like to counter on your end of the argument that offense would most likely be reflected in approval ratings. Which is 45%, so it is closer to half of the broader country still. Whether people actually voted or not.

Edit - though that would assume that full batch even knew about it, but I admit it has gotten more air time than expected. Though many people can be pretty dense on the news cycle.

 

[Casper Gutman]

I have decided that 97.7% of the US population was deeply offended by Zegler’s comments and resolved not to see the film. I have no evidence for this but it confirms my partisan priors and thus is objectively true.

In a related decision, I have resolved that the multi-year hate campaign that commenced immediately upon Zegler’s casting and which unearthed and broadcast those later comments was entirely the work of two unemployed Mississippian polecat giggers and absolutely no one else was ever aware of the effort.

Please note that these decisions are in no way contradictory. Thank you.

 

[BrianLo]

Bob's only appearances in the parks seem to be for photo ops. by and large.

Eisner liked the parks more than Iger, Eisner saw the value in general entertainment more than Iger. These things I think are fairly hard to argue.

But Iger has weirdly softened in his old tenure. What I quoted I think ‘was’ true, other than Shanghai Disney. But I think he’s been in the parks for non photo ops the last 2 years more than his other 18 combined. He’s been through every resort multiple times now and very few of them associated with new land offerings. He was even at Aulani.

Likewise he seems to have done a mild about face on general entertainment, but that may be driven by his newest audition and heir apparent.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Eisner liked the parks more than Iger, Eisner saw the value in general entertainment more than Iger. These things I think are fairly hard to argue.

But Iger has weirdly softened in his old tenure. What I quoted I think ‘was’ true, other than Shanghai Disney. But I think he’s been in the parks for non photo ops the last 2 years more than his other 18 combined. He’s been through every resort multiple times now and very few of them associated with new land offerings. He was even at Aulani.

Likewise he seems to have done a mild about face on general entertainment, but that may be driven by his newest audition and heir apparent.

To what extent is that “softening” on the parks and to what extent is it a growing concern for his physical legacy? And are those different?

 

[BrianLo]

To what extent is that “softening” on the parks and to what extent is it a growing concern for his physical legacy? And are those different?

We differ in our interpretation on this. Spending promissory is a lot higher than it has ever been and in earnings calls the focus on capital expenditures in the parks is higher than it has ever been. Very consistently for a couple years now.

Parks being sold as growth vehicles is a new position he has taken. That doesn’t mean he ‘likes’ the parks, but he has grown softer on them. I think it’s fair to say Iger is very much a media guy through and through. His preference has always seemed to gravitate towards hob knobbing creatives. Which he is generally good at. Output be damned, there is a clear consistency that creatives seem to like him.

He’s been in all of the parks for non photo op buisness a lot more than he has ever been.

I think softening is a meek word to use, mild pivot. I’m not suggesting this is a come to Jesus moment, but we have a different Iger in 2025 than 2005, who frankly surrounded himself with people caustically antagonistic to the parks as a real growth businesses in the past.

He’s definitely not softened on Parks being their own independent form of art. But his IPing is more a consistency across the board strategy for him that’s fairly unflinching.

 

[BrianLo]

To what extent is that “softening” on the parks and to what extent is it a growing concern for his physical legacy? And are those different?

I misunderstood your post, but I’ll let the other one stand. Ya maybe some is about physical legacy? But I felt that’s why we saw so much output from him at the end of his last run. He definitely was trying to suddenly go out on that high note. With Shanghai through Galaxies Edge, etc.

He seems to have returned with that desire for legacy.

 

[Disney Irish]

I’d like to counter on your end of the argument that offense would most likely be reflected in approval ratings. Which is 45%, so it is closer to half of the broader country still. Whether people actually voted or not.

Edit - though that would assume that full batch even knew about it, but I admit it has gotten more air time than expected. Though many people can be pretty dense on the news cycle.

Problem with approval ratings though is they are such a small sample size, in the thousands compared to the millions who may actually have an opinion one way or the other.

 

[BrianLo]

Problem with approval ratings though is they are such a small sample size, in the thousands compared to the millions who may actually have an opinion one way or the other.

I would have figured American polling standards were stronger than that. Admittedly, I don’t know… or care

Disapproval in Canada is now 80%, support heading for single digits, so we should have been revenge watching Snow here to pull up those domestic numbers.

But we started Spring, so Snow is probably a turn off.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

66% drop. 100m domestic is off the table.

Minecraft comes out next weekend...

 

[TP2000]

Here we go, gang! The first pass at weekend box office is out.

The drop for Snow White is rather brutal at 66% from last weekend, while still maintaining all 4,200 theaters nationwide. It came in second to an action movie.

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for July 18, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of July 18, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[Disney Irish]

View attachment 850844
66% drop. 100m domestic is off the table.

Minecraft comes out next weekend...

I wouldn't say its completely off the table, but yes it makes it harder with more family films coming out in the coming weeks.

 

[Disney Irish]

I would have figured American polling standards were stronger than that. Admittedly, I don’t know… or care

Disapproval in Canada is now 80%, support heading for single digits, so we should have been revenge watching Snow here to pull up those domestic numbers.

But we started Spring, so Snow is probably a turn off.

Not to go off on even more of a tangent, but Polls in the US over the past decade have been notoriously inaccurate in both directions. So I never put too much credence into them, and even less into their predictive importance.

 

[TP2000]

66% drop. 100m domestic is off the table.

Wow. You think? Maybe... just throwing it out... it has a second week of children on Spring Break and gets towards $85 Million by its third weekend? Then it could possibly get to $125 Million by the time it leaves theaters at the end of April.

I dunno, it does look bleak. We had gone into this box office discussion 10 days ago with a downgraded assumption it would get $150 Million domestic and around $300 Million globally, and that number was disastrous. Now we're talking $250 Million or less domestically?

This failure is going to dig a hole for Burbank's break even point for the rest of the year. They'll need some really big hits to climb out of a $250 Million crater left by Snow White. Ah, Miss Zegler... your box office talents know no bounds it seems!

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Lets do some glorious wrongly rounded, arm wavingly BSed calculations!

$14,200,000 for the 3 day weekend -> (3 days)
$4,733,333 per day -> (4,200 theatres)
$1,127 per theatre per day -> (lets use 3 screen average since I've noticed the multiplexes have cut the # of screens they're wasting on Snow)
$375 per screen per day -> (~$11.50 USA average movie ticket price)
33 people per screen per day -> (say... what... 4 average showings per screen per day??)
~8 people per showing

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Problem with approval ratings though is they are such a small sample size, in the thousands compared to the millions who may actually have an opinion one way or the other.

It also assumes that people would be ok with her comments if they disapprove, I loathe our neighbors Gov but there’s a difference between saying he’s an idiot and saying I hope Californians never know peace, I have a ton of friends in CA, many who voted for him, but they’re still my friends and I don’t wish ill on them, so even though I disapprove of the person I’d still take offense to the comment as repulsive.

 

[Agent H]

Wow. You think? Maybe... just throwing it out... it has a second week of children on Spring Break and gets towards $85 Million by its third weekend? Then it could possibly get to $125 Million by the time it leaves theaters at the end of April.

I dunno, it does look bleak. We had gone into this box office discussion 10 days ago with a downgraded assumption it would get $150 Million domestic and around $300 Million globally, and that number was disastrous. Now we're talking $250 Million or less domestically?

This failure is going to dig a hole for Burbank's break even point for the rest of the year. They'll need some really big hits to climb out of a $250 Million crater left by Snow White. Ah, Miss Zegler... your box office talents know no bounds it seems!

Well I’m betting on at least 3 big hitters so I don’t think they’ll have a problem.

 

[TP2000]

First pass estimates are in for Snow White's overseas performance on her second weekend. As a reminder, Snow White opened in all international markets on the same Thursday/Friday that it did in the USA. There's no overseas markets left to open.

Judging by the second weekend drop in foreign lands, it does appear Snow White is headed much less than $300 Million globally. Maybe $250 Million if they're lucky? That's an... Oof.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

First pass estimates are in for Snow White's overseas performance on her second weekend. As a reminder, Snow White opened in all international markets on the same Thursday/Friday that it did in the USA. There's no overseas markets left to open.

Judging by the second weekend drop in foreign lands, it does appear Snow White is headed much less than $300 Million globally. Maybe $250 Million if they're lucky? That's an... Oof.

View attachment 850848

Did better internationally than domestically this week, that should help in the long run. I was starting to question if it would be a 50/50 split and struggle to even break $200 million but now that it’s starting to look a little more normal (40/60) on the dom/intl breakdown I think $250 is still realistic.