Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[BrianLo]

It set the release of the film back a year and undoubtedly caused the production budget to balloon (re-shoots). And it prevented them from using human actors in the lead roles.

You are glossing over the strikes. As does everyone constantly. It had five months of a primary shoot and a few weeks of pick ups, which is very standard. So balloon is fairly relative here, <15% of the time was spent in the reshoot window.

Pretty much every Disney production was bumped by a full year. But no one is peddling how troubled Zootopia 2 or Fire and Ash are.

I’m not pretending like Iger didn’t go over every film with a fine tooth comb after his return. Of course he did after 2023, but the evidence cited otherwise is usually circumspect.

 

[Farerb]

You are glossing over the strikes. As does everyone constantly. It had five months of a primary shoot and a few weeks of pick ups, which is very standard. So balloon is fairly relative here, <15% of the time was spent in the reshoot window.

Pretty much every Disney production was bumped by a full year. But no one is peddling how troubled Zootopia 2 or Fire and Ash are.

I’m not pretending like Iger didn’t go over every film with a fine tooth comb after his return. Of course he did after 2023, but the evidence cited otherwise is usually circumspect.

Zootopia 2 was always meant to be released in 2025. The only movies that got delayed were Elio and Snow White and we all know that Elio had major changes to its story and characters.

 

[BrianLo]

Zootopia 2 was always meant to be released in 2025. The only movies that got delayed were Elio and Snow White and we all know that Elio had major changes to its story and characters.

No, it was originally earmarked for November 2024, it was just formerly undated when the strikes hit so escaped the bump in the media.

There was always a WDAS placeholder in Nov 2024 and it sure wasn’t originally for Moana 2.

Quite a number of other movies were pushed back that you are glossing over… I already told you another one.

 

[Farerb]

No, it was originally earmarked for November 2024, it was just formerly undated when the strikes hit so escaped the bump in the media.

There was always a WDAS placeholder in Nov 2024 and it sure wasn’t originally for Moana 2.

Quite a number of other movies were pushed back that you are glossing over… I already told you another one.

It was for an original film that got postponed to 2026.

 

[BrianLo]

Thunderbolts was delayed by 10 months, Cap 4 was delayed by 8 months, Deadpool was delayed by 3 months (but was noted at the time to be the most complete of the three heading into the strike). Blade was shifted by 16 months (over two delays) then fell off the schedule. Both avengers movies were delayed by a year. Star Wars had a pair of movies delayed by 6 months. Mufasa shifted by 6 months. Fire and Ash was delayed by a year.

Edit - Live Action Moana was also delayed a year, which fits with Snow’s schedule shift.

These are the ones we know about that were actually dated heading into the strike.

Looking at the schedule, when was realistically the appropriate time to release Elio and Snow White? The typical live action and Pixar slots they fell into. I guess Mufasa and Snow could have flipped, but I’m not sure if that would have been better. Snow is even more like Wicked and Moana.

 

[Chi84]

Ok so let’s make every movie 15 mins long and then owners can fit like 1000 showings per day, it’ll be like a theme park ride and they can charge the same as a Disney Park per ticket and make Stonk!1!1!

Or just realize that it’s a balance and that some movies will be longer but that a majority of movies released today fit within the less than 2hr20min mark that owners want. Especially the movie this whole debate started over Snow White WILL. BE. UNDER. 2 HOURS. SO. THIS. WHOLE. DEBATE. YOU. STARTED. IS. MOOT.

I think he’s just trying to be silly at this point. Sometimes these threads can get to you lol.

 

[Chi84]

We know they cut "Someday My Prince Will Come" and "One Song" because romance and longing for love is problematic nowadays, but what's really the excuse for "With a Smile and a Song"? I guess looking at the goodness of the world after being sad and frightened is also problematic. We live in cynical times.

My guess is that the film as released will have some actual love and romance instead of someone longing for it in musical form.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Oh, look, a reasonable article.

Rachel Zegler’s ‘Snow White’ Tracking for $53M Box Office Opening

Disney's live-action update stars Zegler as the iconic princess, while Gal Gadot plays the evil queen.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

 

[Baloo124]

My interpretation is that Jafar is not necessarily certain his plan will work and so plays it safe by appearing in disguise—he wouldn’t want Aladdin to be able to identify him in the event that he (Aladdin) escapes unharmed.

Plus it makes for a fun bit of storytelling!

I can see that being his logic too.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Rachel Zegler’s ‘Snow White’ Tracking for $53M Box Office Opening

Disney's live-action update stars Zegler as the iconic princess, while Gal Gadot plays the evil queen.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

I expected the box office on this to closely mirror that of the Little Mermaid remake, if it actually starts to an opening weekend less than half of what the Little Mermaid made I think my prediction it loses $100 million may have been far too optimistic.

I still think movies live or die based on word of mouth now, so only time will tell, but this estimate may have me revising my prediction to a $200 million loss.

 

[DKampy]

Oh, look, a reasonable article.

Rachel Zegler’s ‘Snow White’ Tracking for $53M Box Office Opening

Disney's live-action update stars Zegler as the iconic princess, while Gal Gadot plays the evil queen.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

That’s what happens when you read articles in the trades rather than click bait grifters

Reading that it is a musical is reason enough to cast Zegler…. She has a great voice… Also I think she looks the part in the trailers

 

[Chi84]

I expected the box office on this to closely mirror that of the Little Mermaid remake, if it actually starts to an opening weekend less than half of what the Little Mermaid made I think my prediction it loses $100 million may have been far too optimistic.

I still think movies live or die based on word of mouth now, so only time will tell, but this estimate may have me revising my prediction to a $200 million loss.

A lot of kids (mine included) grew up with the animated Little Mermaid and the music is fantastic. I’m not surprised it would have a much bigger audience from the start.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

A lot of kids (mine included) grew up with the animated Little Mermaid and the music is fantastic. I’m not surprised it would have a much bigger audience from the start.

Kind of makes you question why they approved such a large budget if it wouldn’t have a huge nostalgia draw and would be fighting an uphill battle just to break even.

At a budget of $100-125 million it probably made sense, at (the now normal) budget of $200-250 million it feels like this was doomed before they even started shooting.

 

[Chi84]

Kind of makes you question why they approved such a large budget if it wouldn’t have a huge nostalgia draw and would be fighting an uphill battle just to break even.

At a budget of $100-125 million it probably made sense, at (the now normal) budget of $200-250 million it feels like this was doomed before they even started shooting.

I agree. I’m not sure who Disney thought the audience would be for this film.

The only bright spot I can see is that Greta Gerwig is listed as one of the screenwriters. I liked Barbie so I’m sort of excited to see if this is good also.

 

[Farerb]

Kind of makes you question why they approved such a large budget if it wouldn’t have a huge nostalgia draw and would be fighting an uphill battle just to break even.

At a budget of $100-125 million it probably made sense, at (the now normal) budget of $200-250 million it feels like this was doomed before they even started shooting.

There was no reason whatsoever for this film to be so CGI heavy like Little Mermaid or The Lion King. All they had to do was find a beautiful location for the forest and cast real actors for the dwarfs.

 

[Agent H]

We know they cut "Someday My Prince Will Come" and "One Song" because romance and longing for love is problematic nowadays, but what's really the excuse for "With a Smile and a Song"? I guess looking at the goodness of the world after being sad and frightened is also problematic. We live in cynical times.

Where do you get that romance is problematic these days? I see plenty of those kinds of stories in tv and movies.

 

[BrianLo]

Oh, look, a reasonable article.

Rachel Zegler’s ‘Snow White’ Tracking for $53M Box Office Opening

Disney's live-action update stars Zegler as the iconic princess, while Gal Gadot plays the evil queen.

www.hollywoodreporter.com

Reasonable article. Anemic start. They are hoping for an Elemental/Mufasa now. Improbable, but they've done it a few times in the last two years.

Kind of makes you question why they approved such a large budget if it wouldn’t have a huge nostalgia draw and would be fighting an uphill battle just to break even.

At a budget of $100-125 million it probably made sense, at (the now normal) budget of $200-250 million it feels like this was doomed before they even started shooting.

This one still comes from the before times (Chapek) when spending recklessly on content was in vogue. I think only James Cameron and Russo brothers are getting open ended cheques from Iger these days.

The only bright spot I can see is that Greta Gerwig is listed as one of the screenwriters.

I forgot about that! Though I'm not sure whose version we are really getting.

 

[brideck]

The only bright spot I can see is that Greta Gerwig is listed as one of the screenwriters. I liked Barbie so I’m sort of excited to see if this is good also.

Yeah, and the other screenwriter wrote Secretary (among other things) back in the day, so this has the potential to be a good, more modern adaptation, but it's probably been tinkered with a bunch in post. Marc Webb is also an interesting choice as director. It's been awhile since there's been anything on the big screen from him, but he certainly knows how to shoot music videos.

Between that and new original songs by the Dear Evan Hansen/Greatest Showman/Spirited team there really should be a workable approach to marketing this that they could find. If they've stuck to their guns, it should absolutely appeal to the female-forward audience that Barbie and Wicked have capitalized on.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Between that and new original songs by the Dear Evan Hansen/Greatest Showman/Spirited team there really should be a workable approach to marketing this that they could find. If they've stuck to their guns, it should absolutely appeal to the female-forward audience that Barbie and Wicked have capitalized on.

In the last 2 weeks I’ve seen more commercials for this movie than any other Disney movie in probably the last 5 years, I’ve been watching High Potential on Hulu though so maybe that’s skewed what I’ve seen, and all the commercials I’ve seen have been very nostalgic in their approach, had I not read about the changes here I’d assume this was a more or less shot for shot remake… nothing about the commercials I’ve seen have given me a Barbie or Wicked vibe.

 

[brideck]

In the last 2 weeks I’ve seen more commercials for this movie than any other Disney movie in probably the last 5 years, I’ve been watching High Potential on Hulu though so maybe that’s skewed what I’ve seen, and all the commercials I’ve seen have been very nostalgic in their approach, had I not read about the changes here I’d assume this was a more or less shot for shot remake… nothing about the commercials I’ve seen have given me a Barbie or Wicked vibe.

I don't disagree, which makes me wonder what on earth they're doing. Modern Disney is nothing if not always afraid to stick to their convictions (or initial ideas, if you'd rather I didn't personify them as having beliefs at all).