Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Disney Irish]

A few good ones

Well…Superman…at least

MCU took a different approach…and the Nolan movies provided the gravitas

Most of the "bad" ones were too campy and just didn't bring the average viewer along, which is why the MCU and as you said Nolan was different. They brought comics to the masses in a way that no other did before outside of Reeves (before Superman 3/4).

 

[Agent H]

As I recall we've had posters as young as 14 on this site, they mostly kept to the Imagineering forum as they like to dream up new rides and parks. But you've provided some good posts and banter here, so keep up with it.

oh that explains it I rarely go over there only really to check in on mirror Disneyland

 

[brideck]

Speaking of the worldwide footprint of Stitch (from a couple pages back)... I was struck by the silent and symbolically important presence of Mickey Mouse & Stitch in The Seed of the Sacred Fig [an Iranian(!) movie] when I saw it yesterday. Definitely a known character around the world if he's showing up in the wardrobe of a movie like that.

I also misspoke earlier when I said that none of the movies I was seeing this weekend are Disney movies. The indie documentary we saw at our local art museum was Patrice: The Movie, a fantastic piece from ABC News/Hulu. I can't say much about it without getting political, but it centers around a disabled couple and their struggle to get married in modern America. Quirky, hilarious, and heartbreaking -- strong recommend.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Young is encouraged…there was once a bright rookie on one of the boards…exceptionally sharp at 15…they made him a moderator…

But the profiteering owners were in a devil cult and forced him out (not here)

He’s around…early 30’s now by my guestimation.

Gotta start somewhere

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Disney Irish]

Seems I ended up being right when I said this in the Mufasa thread last month about this "competition" -

What happened to Sonic 3? I thought international was going to save it and make it more successful than Mufasa? At this point its barely going to even make the same as the 2nd one while Mufasa is making way more, maybe even $200-300M WW more by the end of its run.

Sonic 3 has made $463M compared to Sonic 2's $414M (adjusted for inflation). So it seems like Sonic just has a cap with audiences and there was no way it was going to earn more than Mufasa no matter how both started out.

 

[TP2000]

Have we all recovered from Super Bowl Sunday?

It was a rather crummy game by the end of the 2nd quarter, but I hope your party was as good as mine was!

And that halftime show? Er... um.... erm.... Who was the lady in the red leather? Diana Ross, she was not.

Here's what the box office looked like on Super Bowl weekend. I expected A Complete Unknown to get a bigger bump from its Oscar nominations, but that didn't seem to happen. No one I know throws Oscars parties any more, so maybe someone here can remind me; does the Oscars BumpTM come after the nominations, or after the potential statues are awarded? I forget.

Here's the thing though. Would you rather be the studio (Disney) that spent $300 Million on the movie's production and marketing and thus made $15 Million profit so far, or would you rather be the studio (Paramount) that spent $185 Million on the movie's production and marketing and thus made $51 Million profit so far?

If I were a Sharp Pencil Boy, I'd rather have the $51 Million profit banked by February, wouldn't you?

Mufasa: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $141, Overseas $174 = $15 Million Profit
Sonic 3: Production $122, Marketing $63, Domestic $140, Overseas $96 = $51 Million Profit

https://thenumbers.com/movies/custom-comparisons/Mufasa-The-Lion-King-(2024)/Sonic-the-Hedgehog-3-(2024)#tab=day_by_day_comparison

 

[BrianLo]

If I were a Sharp Pencil Boy, I'd rather have the $51 Million profit banked by February, wouldn't you?

Mufasa: Production $200, Marketing $100, Domestic $141, Overseas $174 = $15 Million Profit
Sonic 3: Production $122, Marketing $63, Domestic $140, Overseas $96 = $51 Million Profit

This is an excellent one to watch to test out my hypothesis.

I have Sonic at 83.5 and Mufasa at 65. Virtually the same. The latter is still earning a lot more change.

Friendly bet at which finals higher in deadlines tournament?

 

[BrianLo]

‘Ne Zha 2’ At $1.1B In China Through Sunday, Already No. 7 Animated Movie Ever WW; ‘Mufasa’ Nears $700M Global, ‘Paddington In Peru’ Crosses $100M Overseas – International Box Office

Ne Zha 2 continues its staggering run, with $1.1B in China through Sunday and already landing at No. 7 on the all-time global animation chart

deadline.com

Holy… can’t say I haven’t heard of a movie before it hit a billion in the last two decades.

Inside Out 2’s what I presumed was unachievable benchmark of highest animated film WW is about to be toppled out of literally nowhere.

There’s even a vague chance Fire and Ash isn’t the biggest film of the year. Brownie points to whoever had that on their bingo card, which might have been no one.

 

[Disney Irish]

‘Ne Zha 2’ At $1.1B In China Through Sunday, Already No. 7 Animated Movie Ever WW; ‘Mufasa’ Nears $700M Global, ‘Paddington In Peru’ Crosses $100M Overseas – International Box Office

Ne Zha 2 continues its staggering run, with $1.1B in China through Sunday and already landing at No. 7 on the all-time global animation chart

deadline.com

Holy… can’t say I haven’t heard of a movie before it hit a billion in the last two decades.

Inside Out 2’s what I presumed was unachievable benchmark of highest animated film WW is about to be toppled out of literally nowhere.

There’s even a vague chance Fire and Ash isn’t the biggest film of the year. Brownie points to whoever had that on their bingo card, which might have been no one.

There is some question on how accurate the China numbers really are though as there is no outside accounting of it like they are in other countries. For example it was discovered back in 2016 that the Chinese film bureau was fudging numbers to make their domestic films look better over ones from other countries.

So I've always taken China numbers with a huge grain of salt, especially for their domestic movies.

 

[brideck]

I expected A Complete Unknown to get a bigger bump from its Oscar nominations, but that didn't seem to happen. No one I know throws Oscars parties any more, so maybe someone here can remind me; does the Oscars BumpTM come after the nominations, or after the potential statues are awarded?

The bump usually takes two different forms:

1) A movie will get a lot more screens after nominations come out. This will naturally lead to increased box office returns or at least a series of better than expected holds. e.g. Poor Things went up 900 screens after nominations came out last year and made 40% of its domestic BO after noms. Ditto American Fiction, but the percentage bumps were even higher. If a movie is already out of theaters, it will be re-released, even if it's already on streaming, to try to take advantage of this.

2) A best picture nominee will hang around with 600+ screens all the way through the weekend of the Oscars. This leads to an unnaturally long tail that a movie would otherwise not get. [Note: Big winners will usually get a 1 or 2 week victory lap in theaters after the Oscars, but this doesn't typically amount to much money.]

Depending on the timing and scope of all of the above, this can add up to $5-$10m more than a movie would have made -- chump change to Disney, lifeblood to indie distributors.

This year looks a little weird. The fires in LA seem to have screwed up the timing of a lot of stuff. Nominations were supposed to come out on Fri, Jan 17, which should naturally lead into increased screens and dollars that first weekend (MLK). But the nominations were delayed almost a week. So movies (rightfully) expecting nominations, like Anora and The Substance, surged their screen counts MLK weekend, but didn't have Oscar nominations (yet) to promote. Subsequently, the increases were not as big as I think we would normally expect.

A Complete Unknown is kind of a different case in that it was a wide initial release and still basically on its regular screen trajectory when nominations came out, so it won't get the first kind of boost at all, just the long tail. Given its previous holds, I was thinking it would leg out closer to $80m domestically, but last week was a little worse than I would have expected. We'll see what happens.

 

[BrianLo]

Most places I've looked still have Moana 2 hitting at least $1.05B+.

Luiz see’s Moana 2 hitting 1-1.1 billion.

Since we seem to be finaling at 1.05-ish, shout out to these posts. Irish from Dec 16 no less.

 

[Ghost93]

With the negative reviews for Captain America: Brave New World, I'm going to put a final worldwide box office gross estimate at $300 million.

Let's see how it does this weekend.

 

[Agent H]

With the negative reviews for Captain America: Brave New World, I'm going to put a final worldwide box office gross estimate at $300 million.

Let's see how it does this weekend.

How many marvel films have gotten negative reviews from critics only to be hits at the box office later?

 

[brideck]

How may marvel films have gotten negative reviews from critics only to hits at the box office later?

I'm pretty sure this (so far) has the worst Metascore of any Marvel movie -- more along the lines of The New Mutants or Dark Phoenix. The only MCU movie that's in the same ballpark that I can see is Quantumania, which ended up at $475m worldwide. [Ah, yes. Eternals, too.]

ETA: Not that I think all of the previous entries in the MCU are worthy of their review scores. I am, generally speaking, not a fan of the craft or tone of pretty much the whole endeavor.

 

[_caleb]

Just popping in to see if "whose fault are the bad movie reviews?" debate season has started.

 

[DKampy]

Just popping in to see if "whose fault are the bad movie reviews?" debate season has started.

This years narrative is Disney employs bot audience reviews as seen in the Captain America thread

 

[MagicMouseFan]

How many marvel films have gotten negative reviews from critics only to be hits at the box office later?

From the Wonka Computer:

1. Venom (2018)

• Critic Reviews: 30% on Rotten Tomatoes

• Box Office: $856 million worldwide

• Despite being panned for its tone and writing, Venom was a massive financial success, driven by strong audience reception and Tom Hardy’s performance.


2. Thor: The Dark World (2013)

• Critic Reviews: 66% on Rotten Tomatoes (one of the lowest in the MCU)

• Box Office: $644 million worldwide

• Critics found the story generic, but audiences still turned out in large numbers due to the popularity of Thor and Loki.


3. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023)

• Critic Reviews: 46% on Rotten Tomatoes

• Box Office: $476 million worldwide

• The film was criticized for excessive CGI and weak storytelling, but it still had a solid opening weekend, benefiting from the MCU brand and anticipation for Kang.


4. Eternals (2021)

• Critic Reviews: 47% on Rotten Tomatoes (the first MCU film to receive a “Rotten” score)

• Box Office: $402 million worldwide

• Mixed reception from audiences, but it still performed decently due to Marvel’s reputation.


5. The Incredible Hulk (2008)

• Critic Reviews: 67% on Rotten Tomatoes

• Box Office: $264 million worldwide

• While not a massive hit by MCU standards, it still outperformed expectations given its lukewarm reception.

 

[Ghost93]

From the Wonka Computer:

1. Venom (2018)

• Critic Reviews: 30% on Rotten Tomatoes

• Box Office: $856 million worldwide

• Despite being panned for its tone and writing, Venom was a massive financial success, driven by strong audience reception and Tom Hardy’s performance.


2. Thor: The Dark World (2013)

• Critic Reviews: 66% on Rotten Tomatoes (one of the lowest in the MCU)

• Box Office: $644 million worldwide

• Critics found the story generic, but audiences still turned out in large numbers due to the popularity of Thor and Loki.


3. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania (2023)

• Critic Reviews: 46% on Rotten Tomatoes

• Box Office: $476 million worldwide

• The film was criticized for excessive CGI and weak storytelling, but it still had a solid opening weekend, benefiting from the MCU brand and anticipation for Kang.


4. Eternals (2021)

• Critic Reviews: 47% on Rotten Tomatoes (the first MCU film to receive a “Rotten” score)

• Box Office: $402 million worldwide

• Mixed reception from audiences, but it still performed decently due to Marvel’s reputation.


5. The Incredible Hulk (2008)

• Critic Reviews: 67% on Rotten Tomatoes

• Box Office: $264 million worldwide

• While not a massive hit by MCU standards, it still outperformed expectations given its lukewarm reception.

We also had the Marvels with $206 million.

And for non-MCU Marvel movies, Madame Web ended up with $100.5 million and Kraven the Hunter had $61.9 million

 

[Disney Irish]

TWDC has always done what was in the best interest of TWDC. I cant believe they caved because of a new administration is in power?

I always thought TWDC was more independent than that.

As I said elsewhere, I would wait and see what actually changes if anything.

But in general its not hard to believe they would put a "pause" on such initiatives until a time when it can be received more friendly. This is common in business.