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Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
I love the play. I assume you like other broadway? Because certainly it’s prettier, more visually intriguing and more staged in all the way movies are; if it’s just a general dislike of stage shows and preference towards movies

But if there was something intrinsic to Wicked you disliked, yes it’s very faithful and just longer. But also the stronger 60% of the musical.
I've heard Act 2 isn't as good as the first Act on Broadway. Do you think that could be remedied for the film adaptation? One of the common complaints I heard was that the second act was rushed.

Also, there will apparently be two new songs created just for the film in Part 2 — a new song for Elphaba and a new song for Glinda.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Neither Wicked or Gladiator will reach their previously expected openings, but Wicked's $114 million domestic opening is still both a lot higher than the previous $80 million estimate from a couple weeks ago and the best opening ever for a musical movie based on a Broadway show. Wicked has yet to open in 35% of the international market and won't be released in Japan until March. Its A Cinemascore and 80% PostTrack definite recommend suggests a good run in the weeks ahead.
 

Miss Rori

Well-Known Member
I've heard Act 2 isn't as good as the first Act on Broadway. Do you think that could be remedied for the film adaptation? One of the common complaints I heard was that the second act was rushed.

Also, there will apparently be two new songs created just for the film in Part 2 — a new song for Elphaba and a new song for Glinda.
Yeah, I think the film will let the material breathe more. I was surprised by how smooth the pacing was in this first installment given its length; having never seen the live show, I was wondering how rushed some of the side material must have been in it (particularly the Animals plot thread). I think part of it is that Wicked is working with a setting and scope that benefits from being opened up and taking full advantage of the different medium.
 

Miss Rori

Well-Known Member
Neither Wicked or Gladiator will reach their previously expected openings, but Wicked's $114 million domestic opening is still both a lot higher than the previous $80 million estimate from a couple weeks ago and the best opening ever for a musical movie based on a Broadway show. Wicked has yet to open in 35% of the international market and won't be released in Japan until March. Its A Cinemascore and 80% PostTrack definite recommend suggests a good run in the weeks ahead.
Yeah, this is an exceptional start for both movies, and even if Moana 2 is as big as a lot of people here expect/hope it will be it will probably have a positive knock-on effect for them, though Wicked would be the more obvious beneficiary. Also keep in mind that Moana 2 is a lot shorter than those two movies, so it has more showtimes to make money with. Compare this to the sad situation theaters were in last year with Wish and Napoleon bringing the whole holiday season down and there's no way this doesn't look better! (I'm not the only one who sees the humor in Wicked and Gladiator II coming off as "What if Wish and Napoleon were good?")
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
Compare this to the sad situation theaters were in last year with Wish and Napoleon bringing the whole holiday season down and there's no way this doesn't look better! (I'm not the only one who sees the humor in Wicked and Gladiator II coming off as "What if Wish and Napoleon were good?")
I had the exact same thought! Now, personally, I didn't think Wish or Napolean were outright terrible, but they weren't strong enough for me to give them a recommendation.

I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised by Moana 2, but I'm not optimistic. It's origins as a Disney Plus show and the absence of Lin Manuel Miranda make me fear that it won't be anywhere near as good as the first. I didn't love Frozen II, with it's messy and convoluted plot, but at least that movie was smart enough to bring the Lopez's back and "Into the Unkown" and "Show Yourself" were both bangers that redeemed the film somewhat.
 

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
I've heard Act 2 isn't as good as the first Act on Broadway. Do you think that could be remedied for the film adaptation? One of the common complaints I heard was that the second act was rushed.

Also, there will apparently be two new songs created just for the film in Part 2 — a new song for Elphaba and a new song for Glinda.

New songs will help (basically mandatory). I was just surprised how faithful the first act is. Merely just stretched out sequences with cinematography. Constant, constant winking at the audience that the next big number is about to start. Not a criticism, but funny.

Part two lacks either the fun pop of Loathing/Popular or Adele Dazeem power ballads of Wizard and I/Defying gravity.

There’s essentially only three non reprise songs and one is from the Wizard (no offense but that’s going to be from a mediocre singer), which isn’t great. “No good deed”, a bit of a dour power balad and “for good”, which is a good duet. Two new songs and more material allows them to properly flesh it out.

The back half of the musical is more dour, obviously. But everyone loves a good “school narrative arc” so that’s always hard to compete against. The fact they did such a good job makes me hopeful they’ll improve part two.

I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised by Moana 2, but I'm not optimistic. Its origins as a Disney Plus show and the absence of Lin Manuel Miranda make me fear that it won't be anywhere near as good as the first. I didn't love Frozen II, with it's messy and convoluted plot, but at least that movie was smart enough to bring the Lopez's back and "Into the Unkown" and "Show Yourself" were both bangers that redeemed the film somewhat.

I think this movie is being minimized. It was always a big budget production in its former iteration. It has been largely overseen and directed from Burbank, even if animators are working up the coast. I don’t think the Moana soundtrack is unbeatable. There are four solid songs on it and Shiny was a rare misfire.

It’s being seen as a direct to VHS production turned theatrical. But D+ production efforts have never been reminiscent of that era.

I also think Beyond is resonating with me as an earworm and that Auli’i has really matured as a singer. Her voice has dropped, which she’s talked about a lot.

The big issue I forsee is being just a retread in a different wrapper. But the added cast might help.
 

Ghost93

Well-Known Member
Part two lacks either the fun pop of Loathing/Popular or Adele Dazeem power ballads of Wizard and I/Defying gravity.

There’s essentially only three non reprise songs and one is from the Wizard (no offense but that’s going to be from a mediocre singer), which isn’t great. “No good deed”, a bit of a dour power balad and “for good”, which is a good duet. Two new songs and more material allows them to properly flesh it out.
Being familiar with the cast recording (which I purchased about a decade ago), I think "No Good Deed," "As Long as You're Mine," and "For Good" are all in the top five songs. I personally never loved Popular. Like, it's fine, but I always prefer more dramatic songs to comedic ones. For that reason, Master of the House is one of my least favorite songs from Les Miserables, even though it's quite funny and a crowdpleaser.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Here is the weekend preview

As mentioned by others Wicked didn't get the top end predictions of $120M+ but did bring in over $100M which is really good.

1732486336692.png


Moana 2 this week, prediction range has been updated again to $145-$175M for the 5 day weekend. This will be way over the $125M that Frozen 2 made just 5 years ago which was a record for the Thanksgiving 5-day. So if those numbers do come true Moana 2 will take over that record.
 

DisneyWarrior27

Well-Known Member
Here is the weekend preview

As mentioned by others Wicked didn't get the top end predictions of $120M+ but did bring in over $100M which is really good.

View attachment 827311

Moana 2 this week, prediction range has been updated again to $145-$175M for the 5 day weekend. This will be way over the $125M that Frozen 2 made just 5 years ago which was a record for the Thanksgiving 5-day. So if those numbers do come true Moana 2 will take over that record.
Some even think a $200M+ 5-day opening weekend might happen if reception is just strong enough to make it happen: https://www.reddit.com/r/boxoffice/s/14Ye1b6ySn
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Hey, Mario had arguably mediocre reception and it still was able to open to $200M in its 5-day debut.
Different film, different time of the year, different box office landscape.

Pays nothing to be ambitious.
Other than hope that turns into disappointment when it doesn't happen. Best to set realistic expectations and be happy/surprised if it surpasses it.
 

DisneyWarrior27

Well-Known Member
Different film, different time of the year, different box office landscape.


Other than hope that turns into disappointment when it doesn't happen. Best to set realistic expectations and be happy/surprised if it surpasses it.
Eh a year ago is not that different of a landscape when COVID was already behind us.

But fair enough to your second point.
 

Disney Irish

Premium Member
Eh a year ago is not that different of a landscape when COVID was already behind us.
Wasn't talking about that, 2023 was a weird box office overall especially for Disney. So as much as I'd like Moana 2 to sail to a huge opening like Mario, I'm not holding my breath. I'm just going with the more conservative traditional predictions rather than what some Reddit poster thinks.
 

DisneyWarrior27

Well-Known Member
Wasn't talking about that, 2023 was a weird box office overall especially for Disney. So as much as I'd like Moana 2 to sail to a huge opening like Mario, I'm not holding my breath. I'm just going with the more conservative traditional predictions rather than what some Reddit poster thinks.
He’s really more a box office sales analyst/observer than a Reddit poster, but fair enough.
 

TalkingHead

Well-Known Member
Certainly feels like Wicked is going to have word of mouth on its side. My nearly-full theater applauded at the end. Ariana Grande has an irresistible energy, and that’s coming from someone who found the CGI/digital look unappealing and the songs less than catchy.
 

Dranth

Well-Known Member
I love the play. I assume you like other broadway? Because certainly it’s prettier, more visually intriguing and more staged in all the way movies are; if it’s just a general dislike of stage shows and preference towards movies

But if there was something intrinsic to Wicked you disliked, yes it’s very faithful and just longer. But also the stronger 60% of the musical.
I enjoy most Broadway productions I see and really like musicals (movie and stage) but, for whatever reason, Wicked just felt flat to me.
 

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