Disney’s Q3 FY24 Earnings Results Webcast

[LSLS]

But the thing is they didn’t have a huge jump in the prior year quarter. Specifically, Universal’s domestic attendance was flat in the prior year’s quarter due to lower attendance at UOR offset by higher attendance at USH driven by SNW. Universal’s domestic parks revenue was flat.

Disney reported the same story. Higher attendance in CA, lower attendance in Florida. Domestic parks revenue was up 4% in the prior year’s quarter.

So the comparison remains favorable to Disney, potentially even more favorable when you consider the prior year’s quarterly results.

Did they? I only saw a 20% increase in revenue for parks last year, and that they said CA attributed for 2/3rds the drop this year, didn't see where the attendance was last year. If we ever get the AECOM report that would tell us a lot more.

 

[Stripes]

Did they? I only saw a 20% increase in revenue for parks last year, didn't see where the attendance was. If we ever get the AECOM report that would tell us a lot more.

I’m not clear on what you’re asking. Could you clarify? A ton of the revenue increase in theme parks last year came from Comcast’s and Disney’s international parks due to the end of COVID restrictions in certain markets. The domestic parks were not very big contributors to revenue growth last year for either operator.

 

[flynnibus]

Importantly, Disney said domestic attendance was flat this quarter. Universal saw an attendance decline.

UNI is also facing the inevitable 'wait for EPIC' impact... Disney isn't.

 

[Lilofan]

I don't dispute your story. The Marvel execs had a misconception about the public. I give Iger credit for knowing that they were wrong.

With the Marvel execs taking advice from Permultter that's the wrong guy to listen to.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Over at WB it was a terrible mistake to get rid of Jason Kilar and replace him with David Zaslav. Kilar had a vision for the future and was building a streaming service that would’ve eventually competed with Netflix. He wouldn’t bow down to the altar of theatrical so they got rid of him and replaced him with Zaslav, an old fart who comes from the dying cable bundle and really has no clue what the internet even is.

 

[Stripes]

UNI is also facing the inevitable 'wait for EPIC' impact... Disney isn't.

I think it’s fair to say that, to the extent there is some “wait for Epic” behavior, some of that would impact Disney as many of those potential guests would be putting off Orlando trips and many, if not most of those Orlando trips, would also include visits to Disney.

 

[LSLS]

I think it’s fair to say that, to the extent there is some “wait for Epic” behavior, some of that would impact Disney as many of those potential guests would be putting off Orlando trips and many, if not most of those Orlando trips, would also include visits to Disney.

And I completely disagree. I don't think the visits to Epic next year are going to include Disney for most people, and that has clicked with management (far too late). If a family of 4 decide to pop over to MK for the day, you are talking $750 FOR TICKETS ONLY. Then like $30 for parking, food, LL, etc. I think you are dreaming if you think people are going to come down, spend $4,000 to on Universal, then drop an extra $1,000 to visit MK for the day.

 

[Rhinocerous]

Over at WB it was a terrible mistake to get rid of Jason Kilar and replace him with David Zaslav. Kilar had a vision for the future and was building a streaming service that would’ve eventually competed with Netflix. He wouldn’t bow down to the altar of theatrical so they got rid of him and replaced him with Zaslav, an old fart who comes from the dying cable bundle and really has no clue what the internet even is.

Speaking as someone who was there, that wasn't how it went down. Discovery basically purchased WarnerMedia and DZ was the guy at the top. He was always going to be in that spot, and there was no room for Jason. (Not that his "Popcorn" strategy wasn't divisive, it absolutely was. But that's not the reason he left.)

 

[Stripes]

And I completely disagree. I don't think the visits to Epic next year are going to include Disney for most people, and that has clicked with management (far too late). If a family of 4 decide to pop over to MK for the day, you are talking $750 FOR TICKETS ONLY. Then like $30 for parking, food, LL, etc. I think you are dreaming if you think people are going to come down, spend $4,000 to on Universal, then drop an extra $1,000 to visit MK for the day.

We’re not talking about what’s going to happen next year. We’re talking about what’s happening right now. Those are two totally different things.

If you believe that a lot of people are holding off on visiting UNI right now, they’re likely holding back on visiting Orlando. And if they’re holding back on visiting Orlando, they’re not visiting Disney right now either.

Now, I don’t think there is a large number of guests holding off vacations until Epic opens but others do.

I think you are assuming most guests will make their vacations Universal focused when Epic opens. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case and I think UNI will become a lot more flexible with their ticket policies quickly after the park opens.

 

[flynnibus]

I think it’s fair to say that, to the extent there is some “wait for Epic” behavior, some of that would impact Disney as many of those potential guests would be putting off Orlando trips and many, if not most of those Orlando trips, would also include visits to Disney.

To some extent... but you're talking about portions of a portion of a portion when it comes to Disney.

For UNI you're talking about the UNI customers as a whole.. and the fraction within that who are considering EPIC in their choice

For Disney you're talking about 'the fraction of Disney People that also goto UNI... and then fraction within that fraction that prioritize UNI... and then the fraction within that fraction, fraction, that are considering EPIC'

 

[Lilofan]

We’re not talking about what’s going to happen next year. We’re talking about what’s happening right now. Those are two totally different things.

If you believe that a lot of people are holding off on visiting UNI right now, they’re likely holding back on visiting Orlando. And if they’re holding back on visiting Orlando, they’re not visiting Disney right now either.

Now, I don’t think there is a large number of guests holding off vacations until Epic opens but others do.

I agree, some forum members think the terrible 10.6% decline in Universal attendance is due to guests holding off until Epic but on the flip side Orlando has been experiencing huge influx of travelers visiting Orlando and also FL. So a number of guests are obviously not visiting UNI or WDW.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

Did they? I only saw a 20% increase in revenue for parks last year, and that they said CA attributed for 2/3rds the drop this year, didn't see where the attendance was last year. If we ever get the AECOM report that would tell us a lot more.

What they said 2nd quarter last year was:

• Theme Parks Adjusted EBITDA Increased 32% to $833 Million, Its Highest Adjusted EBITDA on Record, Reflecting Growth at Universal Beijing, Universal Japan and Universal Hollywood Compared to the Prior Year Period

I don't know what UOR was doing, but that suggests at least that the growth was elsewhere last year. It also suggests the idea that WDW is uniquely suffering while Universal has been picking up a lot of its business isn't being borne out so far by the numbers: both seem to be seeing smaller attendance, Disney is just weathering it better so far.

I am very curious to see how Epic Universe goes next year. I hope it does well and that it pushes Disney to do more to win over guests. My suspicion is that people on here are a little too bullish on how much its opening is going to affect the how families are planning their vacations this year and will decide where to go next year. I think if people felt more enthusiastic/financially able to visit the parks this year they would be and if they still don't next year the park will have a rocky opening and indeed all of the Orlando parks may take a hit as the depressed numbers are distributed around a larger number of parks.

 

[LSLS]

We’re not talking about what’s going to happen next year. We’re talking about what’s happening right now. Those are two totally different things.

If you believe that a lot of people are holding off on visiting UNI right now, they’re likely holding back on visiting Orlando. And if they’re holding back on visiting Orlando, they’re not visiting Disney right now either.

Now, I don’t think there is a large number of guests holding off vacations until Epic opens but others do.

I think you are assuming most guests will make their vacations Universal focused when Epic opens. I don’t think that’s necessarily the case and I think UNI will become a lot more flexible with their ticket policies quickly after the park opens.

Oh, I thought you were talking about they were holding off and will be at Disney as well next year. But yeah, I'm definitely assuming that. I think the single day tickets are so out of control, it's getting to be difficult for most visitors to justify a few days at Disney and then a separate ticket to a Universal park. I also suspect there are a lot that couldn't justify that ticket expense just to see Harry Potter, but will not justify multiple days with Epic as well. BUT, I also think it's going to be very short term.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

And I completely disagree. I don't think the visits to Epic next year are going to include Disney for most people, and that has clicked with management (far too late). If a family of 4 decide to pop over to MK for the day, you are talking $750 FOR TICKETS ONLY. Then like $30 for parking, food, LL, etc. I think you are dreaming if you think people are going to come down, spend $4,000 to on Universal, then drop an extra $1,000 to visit MK for the day.

A couple years ago I would have disagreed with this and argued most people who make the trek to Orlando for EU will also visit Disney, with LL and VQs I don’t think that’s the case anymore. There’s too much uncertainty to guarantee you’ll get your moneys worth. Disney has shot the selves in the foot and it’s going to take years to recover from their own choices.

 

[Andrew C]

A couple years ago I would have disagreed with this and argued most people who make the trek to Orlando for EU will also visit Disney, with LL and VQs I don’t think that’s the case anymore. There’s too much uncertainty to guarantee you’ll get your moneys worth. Disney has shot the selves in the foot and it’s going to take years to recover from their own choices.

The people in charge think they did a good job with the Epcot refurb. Expect more poor choices...

 

[GhostHost1000]

The people in charge think they did a good job with the Epcot refurb. Expect more poor choices...

and they have plenty of room in the Communicore Middle School Cafeteria Hall to celebrate

 

[Lilofan]

What they said 2nd quarter last year was:

• Theme Parks Adjusted EBITDA Increased 32% to $833 Million, Its Highest Adjusted EBITDA on Record, Reflecting Growth at Universal Beijing, Universal Japan and Universal Hollywood Compared to the Prior Year Period

I don't know what UOR was doing, but that suggests at least that the growth was elsewhere last year. It also suggests the idea that WDW is uniquely suffering while Universal has been picking up a lot of its business isn't being borne out so far by the numbers: both seem to be seeing smaller attendance, Disney is just weathering it better so far.

I am very curious to see how Epic Universe goes next year. I hope it does well and that it pushes Disney to do more to win over guests. My suspicion is that people on here are a little too bullish on how much its opening is going to affect the how families are planning their vacations this year and will decide where to go next year. I think if people felt more enthusiastic/financially able to visit the parks this year they would be and if they still don't next year the park will have a rocky opening and indeed all of the Orlando parks may take a hit.

Epic and Disney will continue to have guests in many different income brackets. Some say WDW is for the rich and is pricing out the middle class. I have a different take. A number of rich live that lifestyle paycheck to paycheck, take out loans , to include vacations at WDW and other parts. A number in my neighborhood end up in the poor house when setbacks happen, - job loss, medical issues since they don't have a nest egg to fall back on because they choose to keep their lifestyle .
Some of the wealthy tend to keep their money, save invest and have that financial freedom to do what they please when and if they even are going to do it.

 

[dennis-in-ct]

If a family of 4 decide to pop over to MK for the day, you are talking $750 FOR TICKETS ONLY. Then like $30 for parking, food, LL, etc. I think you are dreaming if you think people are going to come down, spend $4,000 to on Universal, then drop an extra $1,000 to visit MK for the day.

For our visits, it would be one or the other. I think more people have reached their tolerance of price increases. To wake up at 7 am and fight for attraction availability after purchasing Genie+ and not getting what you want, even though you are staying at a Disney resort gave us a very sour vibe.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

And D+ is profitable ahead of schedule. Of note to certain big mouths around here.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Just took a look at the stock and…good lord. What a disaster.

Are you serious with this right now? Do you pay attention to the news?