Rumor Higher Speed Rail from MCO to Disney World

[Twirlnhurl]

In May, Brightline served 231,883 passengers, a 38% increase compared to the 168,137 passengers who were served the previous year. More than half of Brightline’s May passengers — 135,918 to be exact — were long-haul riders who traveled to Orlando, which is a record for the intercity rail company.

From this article in the Orlando Business Journal.

The 135,918 passengers who took Brightline to Orlando is equivalent to 22 flights per day (assuming aircraft with 200 seats).

If memory serves me correctly from when I last looked into it, this is about the same number of flights to Orlando from the three main South Florida airports. I'm sure there has been a reduction in the demand for those flights, but it was probably pretty minor. Most of these train trips were probably latent demand.

I think the success of the leg to Orlando bodes well for the demand if the service extension is ever built.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

From this article in the Orlando Business Journal.

The 135,918 passengers who took Brightline to Orlando is equivalent to 22 flights per day (assuming aircraft with 200 seats).

If memory serves me correctly from when I last looked into it, this is about the same number of flights to Orlando from the three main South Florida airports. I'm sure there has been a reduction in the demand for those flights, but it was probably pretty minor. Most of these train trips were probably latent demand.

I think the success of the leg to Orlando bodes well for the demand if the service extension is ever built.

We were two of those people in May. It’s worth noting there was a BOGO fare to Orlando for a good while, or we would have driven, per usual.

They’re running a half price sale most of the summer.

We would do it again, but would be very unlikely to pay full price, FWIW.

 

[JoeCamel]

We were two of those people in May. It’s worth noting there was a BOGO fare to Orlando for a good while, or we would have driven, per usual.

They’re running a half price sale most of the summer.

We would do it again, but would be very unlikely to pay full price, FWIW.

What is the tipping point for you? Convenience of having a car at this end?

 

[Comped]

From this article in the Orlando Business Journal.

The 135,918 passengers who took Brightline to Orlando is equivalent to 22 flights per day (assuming aircraft with 200 seats).

If memory serves me correctly from when I last looked into it, this is about the same number of flights to Orlando from the three main South Florida airports. I'm sure there has been a reduction in the demand for those flights, but it was probably pretty minor. Most of these train trips were probably latent demand.

I think the success of the leg to Orlando bodes well for the demand if the service extension is ever built.

They are currently running a buy one get one promotion, and before that ran a promotion where I believe if you bought a ticket you could pay for the second one as if it was a kid even if it's an adult ticket. This doesn't tell me anything but they are struggling to feel seats because of the high price.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

This doesn't tell me anything but they are struggling to feel seats because of the high price.

Well Disney is also struggling to fill rooms because of the high price so that’s not unique to them.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

$79 is pretty pricey for tickets, I think the sweet spot would probably be $49.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Well Disney is also struggling to fill rooms because of the high price so that’s not unique to them.

While the reference to Disney and hotel rooms is irrelevant and doesn't add anything to the conversation about the train service, other than serving to take pot shots at Disney (which is odd on a fan message board, but ok) i think the numbers does tell us something beyond they are struggling to fill seats.

The data seems to show an increase in use of the train line, year over year. The question is now, 1) is the discount pricing being done to build/increase market share and customer base to help get people to rely on this method of transportation; 2) are the costs of operations such that the current "non-discount" prices are high enough that even with discounts, the line is profitable. 3) is the line viewed as being of such use that now that people have gotten a taste for it at the cheaper prices, once the deals expire, will they continue to use, like a good crack dealer, get your customers hooked cheap...then come back for the payday.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

While the reference to Disney and hotel rooms is irrelevant and doesn't add anything to the conversation about the train service, other than serving to take pot shots at Disney (which is odd on a fan message board, but ok)

I wasn’t taking a shot at Disney, I was stating a fact.

The relevancy is the most popular tourist destination in the state of Florida is offering discounts, so it makes sense that travel to and from that destinations area may also need to provide discounts.

 

[Lilofan]

I wasn’t taking a shot at Disney, I was stating a fact.

The relevancy is the most popular tourist destination in the state of Florida is offering discounts, so it makes sense that travel to and from that destinations area may also need to provide discounts.

We love stopping at the FL rest areas on I-95 and we take advantage of those discount hotel coupon magazines! Sure miss the free samples of OJ at the FL/GA border rest stop.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Sure miss the free samples of OJ at the FL/GA border rest stop.

They don’t have them anymore!? I remember that when I was a kid!

 

[Disone]

While the reference to Disney and hotel rooms is irrelevant and doesn't add anything to the conversation about the train service, other than serving to take pot shots at Disney (which is odd on a fan message board, but ok) i think the numbers does tell us something beyond they are struggling to fill seats.

The data seems to show an increase in use of the train line, year over year. The question is now, 1) is the discount pricing being done to build/increase market share and customer base to help get people to rely on this method of transportation; 2) are the costs of operations such that the current "non-discount" prices are high enough that even with discounts, the line is profitable. 3) is the line viewed as being of such use that now that people have gotten a taste for it at the cheaper prices, once the deals expire, will they continue to use, like a good crack dealer, get your customers hooked cheap...then come back for the payday.

Easy there. I found the comparison appropriate. No need the flame. Wdwmagic may have started off as a fan site, But it certainly has developed into more of a discussion site , And certainly criticisms are not forbidden or unwarranted.

Back to the topic at hand, brightline handled approximately 136,000 passengers on the Orlando segment which has 32 trains per day. 16 arrivals and 16 departures.

That's approximately 7936 seats per day or 246k seats for May.

So on the long distance portion between West Palm and Orlando they are seen about a 55% occupancy of those seats. Interestingly now they're also treating themselves more like airline. I randomly selected July 31st, and they have some pretty low prices and even lower if you're willing to give up some creature comforts like selecting your own seat.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Easy there. I found the comparison appropriate. No need the flame. Wdwmagic may have started off as a fan site, But it certainly has developed into more of a discussion site , And certainly criticisms are not forbidden or unwarranted.

Back to the topic at hand, brightline handled approximately 136,000 passengers on the Orlando segment which has 32 trains per day. 16 arrivals and 16 departures.

That's approximately 7936 seats per day or 246k seats for May.

So on the long distance portion between West Palm and Orlando they are seen about a 55% occupancy of those seats. Interestingly now they're also treating themselves more like airline. I randomly selected July 31st, and they have some pretty low prices and even lower if you're willing to give up some creature comforts like selecting your own seat.

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I don’t get the apples to oranges comparison between a new method of travel, and a long established static place to stay. They are completely separate services/businesses with different market bases. If you want to compare flight prices/discounts from the southern Florida area I could see the usefulness for comparison sakes. Or If you want to make the argument the sucess of the line is based on WDW hotel attendance (which seems absurd. If you have some figures on Orlando tourism being soft i could see some utility in the comparison.) otherwise the comment is about as useful as saying everyone is giving discounts right now. It doesn’t add anything to the topic of the viability or success of brightline

 

[lewisc]

Definitely apples to oranges. Disney can discount hotel rooms and captue revenue from park tickets, restaurants souvenirs etc.

I suspect revenue from Brightline T shirt sales etc is nominal.

It remains to be seen how many passengers are willing to pay a profitable fare.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Definitely apples to oranges. Disney can discount hotel rooms and captue revenue from park tickets, restaurants souvenirs etc.

I suspect revenue from Brightline T shirt sales etc is nominal.

It remains to be seen how many passengers are willing to pay a profitable fare.

Brightline has business interests outside just passenger fares, namely real estate development.

 

[Twirlnhurl]

Some other things to consider that make a train service different from what Disney does:

Brightline is courting two separate markets, Business and Leisure. Business travelers are often willing to pay more (or less willing to jump through hoops to pa's yess) than Leisure travelers, because usually the company is paying for it. So having discounts is a well known profit maximizing strategy that allows price discrimination. Leisure travelers price shop, while Business travelers just book whatever fits the schedule best, and Brightline can maximize the price charged to both. I have not looked too closely at Brightline pricing, but that may be at play here.

Additionally, it is worth considering that the price of running the train is low compared to the cost of building it and mostly fixed, because the number of staff is not very closely related to the number of passengers. So unlike air travel, where the vehicles are fixed in size and the required staffing is based on seat count, a train can double their operating capacity with very low additional cost. So it is often profit maximizing to oversupply capacity such that it will be available if a surge in demand occurs.

 

[Disone]

I don’t get the apples to oranges comparison between a new method of travel, and a long established static place to stay. They are completely separate services/businesses with different market bases. If you want to compare flight prices/discounts from the southern Florida area I could see the usefulness for comparison sakes. Or If you want to make the argument the sucess of the line is based on WDW hotel attendance (which seems absurd. If you have some figures on Orlando tourism being soft i could see some utility in the comparison.) otherwise the comment is about as useful as saying everyone is giving discounts right now. It doesn’t add anything to the topic of the viability or success of brightline

Brightline is definitely competing as a transportation service between Central Florida and South Florida. It's no different than comparing a Amtrak Acela trains to flights between Boston and New York. They absolutely compete with each other. There's comparisons made all the time.

 

[C33Mom]

We were two of those people in May. It’s worth noting there was a BOGO fare to Orlando for a good while, or we would have driven, per usual.

They’re running a half price sale most of the summer.

We would do it again, but would be very unlikely to pay full price, FWIW.

Do I need a promo code to view the half price sale? For mid-August, it’s telling me the best possible (average?) fare for 2 adults and 2 kids (with no assigned seats) is about $75 per person if I want to depart after 6AM, I think there was one earlier departures that got down to $41 but I’m not interested in leaving my hotel at 5AM. At $300, plus cost of getting to the brightline station and then to our hotel on the other end, I think I’m going to stick with a rental car.

 

[Splashin' Ryan]

I think what many people forget is the obvious that: as more lines are built the better an option it becomes for most people.
Fewer people will be willing to take a singular route if they still have to transfer to a taxi, uber, or a rental. If there's a train-to-train option people will choose that and pay more for that convenience. If there was a train system running from every major city in the US to Disney you could bet your Mickey ears that the parking lots would be empty pretty quickly as people would choose train options.
Every line added only increases the success of the others and this potential demand will always be unknown even with the best estimations from data.

 

[JMcMahonEsq]

Brightline is definitely competing as a transportation service between Central Florida and South Florida. It's no different than comparing an Amtrak Acela trains to flights between Boston and New York. They absolutely compete with each other. There's comparisons made all the time.

Amtrak absolutely doesn’t compete at all. It’s heavily government subsidized. The annually lose money.

Amtrak reported that the Acela trains made $34 per passenger in operating profit in 2023, down from $93 per passenger in 2019. Other NEC service made almost $12 per passenger profit in 2023, down from nearly $27 per passenger in 2019.

In the aggregate, the state-supported routes lost $19 per passenger in 2023, compared with about $3.75 per passenger in 2019.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Amtrak absolutely doesn’t compete at all.

They compete for passengers. In Florida too, the Silver Star and Silver Meteor operate daily. Takes a bit longer because they go out towards Tampa before heading south.