Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[TP2000]

Box Office is in for this past weekend, and it was definitely Boffo! (Superstar Limo reference, may it RIP)

Inside Out 2 looks like it's going to easily get to $1 Billion globally! I can only imagine how many sighs of relief there have been lately in Emeryville over this much needed success, but what do you think the big bosses in Burbank will learn from this?

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for August 2, 2024

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of August 2, 2024

www.the-numbers.com

 

[brideck]

I can only imagine how many sighs of relief there have been lately in Emeryville over this much needed success, but what do you think the big bosses in Burbank will learn from this?

I wonder what even is learnable from this. What on Earth happened in the zeitgeist to take it from a very respectable estimated $85m opening (estimated the Tuesday of release week, so that was based on pre-sales, buzz, etc. ex. https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...ing-weekend-projection-pixar-woes-1236032726/) to... well, this?

 

[Disney Irish]

I wonder what even is learnable from this. What on Earth happened in the zeitgeist to take it from a very respectable estimated $85m opening (estimated the Tuesday of release week, so that was based on pre-sales, buzz, etc. ex. https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...ing-weekend-projection-pixar-woes-1236032726/) to... well, this?

There isn't anything to learn from this in my opinion, other than just roll the dice and take a chance, its a lightening in a bottle moment. The audience is sporadic, especially post-pandemic. There is no sure fire way to predict anything anymore, not that there was reliably even in the before times.

I'm honestly wondering now if IO2 has even taken a bit of the oxygen away from DM4.

 

[Ghost93]

I wonder what even is learnable from this. What on Earth happened in the zeitgeist to take it from a very respectable estimated $85m opening (estimated the Tuesday of release week, so that was based on pre-sales, buzz, etc. ex. https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...ing-weekend-projection-pixar-woes-1236032726/) to... well, this?

It should be noted that DeSantis and Disney had settled their feud. DeSantis was pushing a lot of the hate against Disney to score some political points. Since his presidential bid failed and he's no longer going after the company, there's a lot less manufactured outraged against the company now. People may still whine about an individual product (like the Acolyte) but there's not a full-on assault against all aspects of the company anymore.

 

[Ghost93]

I'm honestly wondering now if IO2 has even taken a bit of the oxygen away from DM4.

Possibly.

I'm torn about DM4 at the box office. I don't care for the Despicable Me franchise at all and I outright DESPISE the minon characters and think they are woefully unfunny, but I want theaters to succeed and thrive. If DM4 being a hit is what it takes to keep theaters afloat through the summer, so be it.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

It should be noted that DeSantis and Disney had settled their feud. DeSantis was pushing a lot of the hate against Disney to score some political points. Since his presidential bid failed and he's no longer going after the company, there's a lot less manufactured outraged against the company now. People may still whine about an individual product (like the Acolyte) but there's not a full-on assault against all aspects of the company anymore.

Cue insistence that no such efforts to attack Disney existed...

 

[BrianLo]

DM4 opened quite well in a few International markets, so it may be a rising tide phenomenon.

But that franchise is certainly pushing the boundaries of have many ‘sequels’ the market will accept (5 in 14 years). So it’s not exactly sending the best message to the industry when it invariably does quite well.

 

[haveyoumetmark]

I wonder what even is learnable from this. What on Earth happened in the zeitgeist to take it from a very respectable estimated $85m opening (estimated the Tuesday of release week, so that was based on pre-sales, buzz, etc. ex. https://variety.com/2024/film/news/...ing-weekend-projection-pixar-woes-1236032726/) to... well, this?

Anxiety

 

[Disney Analyst]

There isn't anything to learn from this in my opinion, other than just roll the dice and take a chance, its a lightening in a bottle moment. The audience is sporadic, especially post-pandemic. There is no sure fire way to predict anything anymore, not that there was reliably even in the before times.

I'm honestly wondering now if IO2 has even taken a bit of the oxygen away from DM4.

This is personally how I feel. If a movie hits at the right time, goes viral / and or memeable, and is decent enough, it can go bonkers right now.

It seems sure things are out the window for the most part.

 

[Disney Analyst]

 

[Disney Irish]

Not sure if someone brought this up before, but if IO2 keeps going not only will it surpass Incredibles 2 but it'll also do it faster. Incredibles 2 reached $1B in 46 days, IO2 looks to do it in less than half the time.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

Not sure if someone brought this up before, but if IO2 keeps going not only will it surpass Incredibles 2 but it'll also do it faster. Incredibles 2 reached $1B in 46 days, IO2 looks to do it in less than half the time.

Been watching those milestones on mojo. Every tiered record has been better than the last.

 

[Ghost93]

Inside Out 2 looks like it's going to easily get to $1 Billion globally! I can only imagine how many sighs of relief there have been lately in Emeryville over this much needed success, but what do you think the big bosses in Burbank will learn from this?

I imagine the takeaways will be
1. Greenlight more sequels and prioritize existing franchises over original movies.
2. Lean into what people liked about the original franchise. Don't do a deconstruction (like in Indy 5 or Lightyear)
3. Don't send movies straight to Disney Plus (Soul, Luca, Turning Red), or give them limited theatrical windows (Encanto, Strange World)
4. No LGBT characters for awhile (I hate to say this as I want better gay representation, but I KNOW it's what's being discussed)
5. No discussion of periods or attempting to as authentic as possible in depicting the lives of teenagers. Being authentic to what teens are like (as in Turning Red) means angering many parents who prefer a more santized recreation of the teenage experience.
6. Don't fork over money to bring back talent who aren't major draws (such as Bill Hader and Mindy Kaling, whose absence didn't impact the movie at all)

 

[TP2000]

Now that overseas box office is in for Inside Out 2 from this past weekend, I just pulled together this nifty chart. It compares Inside Out 2 with the previous 3 Pixar sequels from the late 2010's, and I threw in Elemental and Lightyear as a recent comparison.

I find it fascinating to see how wildly successful Inside Out 2 already is compared to last summer's "hit!" Elemental that wasn't that much of a hit historically, and the global box office misery of Lightyear.

Inside Out 2 is currently tracking just below Incredibles 2 and nearly identical to Finding Dory, adjusted for inflation.

Movie Comparison: Inside Out 2 (2024) vs. Toy Story 4 (2019) vs. Incredibles 2 (2018) vs. Finding Dory (2016) vs. Lightyear (2022) vs. Elemental (2023)

Domestic box office comparison between Inside Out 2 (2024) and Toy Story 4 (2019) and Incredibles 2 (2018) and Finding Dory (2016) and Lightyear (2022) and Elemental (2023)

www.the-numbers.com

 

[TP2000]

I imagine the takeaways will be
1. Greenlight more sequels and prioritize existing franchises over original movies.
2. Lean into what people liked about the original franchise. Don't do a deconstruction (like in Indy 5 or Lightyear)
3. Don't send movies straight to Disney Plus (Soul, Luca, Turning Red), or give them limited theatrical windows (Encanto, Strange World)
4. No LGBT characters for awhile (I hate to say this as I want better gay representation, but I KNOW it's what's being discussed)
5. No discussion of periods or attempting to as authentic as possible in depicting the lives of teenagers. Being authentic to what teens are like (as in Turning Red) means angering many parents who prefer a more santized recreation of the teenage experience.
6. Don't fork over money to bring back talent who aren't major draws (such as Bill Hader and Mindy Kaling, whose absence didn't impact the movie at all)

I would agree with you on all 6 points there. I think it's obvious now that both Pixar and WDAS will not be trying the gimmicks and "new things" or "authenticity" they tried the past few years that turned away global audiences.

That last one, #6, is something I think is a big one. I've been baffled by it in general. Why do you even need former SNL actors or actresses from last decade's sitcoms to do the voiceovers for this stuff? Just pick one of the roughly 250,000 struggling actors or actresses in LA or New York with talent and pay them a few hundred thousand to be the next voice of a heroine, or the singing frog, or loveable fairy godmother, or whatever.

And then get A.I. to fill in all the background voices and characters and you'd save yourself millions per animated film.

 

[Dranth]

Let me add (to help contextualise my thinking) that even Inside Out 2 lends itself to a queer reading. (I’m far from the only one to detect a crush-like dynamic between Riley and Val.)

I thought the same thing about Riley and Val though I did read

Spoiler

Mount Crushmore as all male.

Looking back at it though I believe I only knew a few of the folks represented so I could easily have been wrong there and even if it wasn't, that doesn't really preclude Riley from being into Val.

ETA: Just noticed this wasn't in the IO2 thread so added spoiler tag just in case.

 

[LittleBuford]

What is the basis for that feeling?

Because I think the proverbial horse has already bolted. Perhaps we won’t get another Ethan for a while, but I’d be very surprised indeed if fleeting queer references of the kind Elemental gave us were now off the menu. I also think people are overstating the extent to which Inside Out 2 played it safe. Besides the possible queer reading I pointed to earlier, it features a headscarfed girl, which is exactly the sort of thing people would have cited as a reason for the film’s failure had it not done well.

 

[Ghost93]

Because I think the proverbial horse has already bolted. Perhaps we won’t get another Ethan for a while, but I’d be very surprised indeed if fleeting queer references of the kind Elemental gave us were now off the menu. I also think people are overstating the extent to which Inside Out 2 played it safe. Besides the possible queer reading I pointed to earlier, it features a headscarfed girl, which is exactly the sort of thing people would have cited as a reason for the film’s failure had it not done well.

I guess I don't consider the blink-and-you-miss-it queer moments in movies like Elemental actual LGBT inclusion. I don't think the Walt Disney Company should be congratulated for minor, one-sentence references to LGBT people that can easily be missed.

I had mixed feelings on Lightyear and didn't like Strange World at all but I will give kudos for Hawthorne and Ethan being characters whose LGBT identity was unmistakable.

 

[BrianLo]

This film is about anxiety tied to wanting to fit in, losing friends, transitioning to high school and making new friends/peers. Along with the pressure of all those difficult life transitions at once. All framed around a single weekend hockey tournament that she's trying to make the team so she can be popular and have friends in high school. There's no real love interest (externalized) narrative that also fit in to the final product or would have any sensible means of having been there to begin with and scrubbed.

I suspect IO3 might actually be about romantic relationships. That would make a ton of sense as the next natural story beat, but this film was not and never appeared to be it. These films also have a lot longer than a 2 year production.

 

[LittleBuford]

It's always fascinating how off the mark people can take things when they haven't watched the product. Sure, there's an argument if you literally don't know what the movie is about. But this movie is purely about a panic attack about not having friends in high school (from Riley's perspective). There's no room there for a romantically coded sub plot. She just desperately wants friends and to fit in.

Which is why 95% of things people assume are controversial in these films really don't end up existing.

I don't fully agree with the bolded, since I myself saw a crush-like dynamic at play, but yes, romance (of any kind) is not, and was never going to be, a central element (!) of this film.