Disney’s Q1 FY24 Earnings Results Webcast

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’ll post the clip…
This is the most dead on analysis of the issue at play here…
You won’t get a better take

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Tom Rogers appears to be an idiot. Streaming will be profitable by September, and the sub decline was expected this quarter as they took a significant price increase.

Did you watch the clip?

There’s a lot more behind his opinion than the blip

 

[monothingie]

He does, but most certainly not to be replaced with Jay Rasulo with Perlmutter pulling the strings.

You’d even have me, the borderline optimist, calling for the heat death of the company.

2026 wink wink


There is no one in this internal to the company that can do it. Chapek was the best they had…

They won’t go outside the company.

Maybe Hugh G Johnston (sorry it’s the most perfect name)?

 

[BrianLo]

Tom Rogers appears to be an idiot. Streaming will be profitable by September, and the sub decline was expected this quarter as they took a significant price increase.

Thank you. It’s like watching a car in forward momentum and crying it’s driving backwards. He’s a complete idiot.

DTC was already on the verge of profitability in this past quarter. It seems pretty clear if their subscriber goals and ARPU sticks DTC is profitable now… minus perhaps oodles of Swift aqusition spend?

I don’t get it, we can watch the trend line easily and Bob is actually downplaying it something fierce.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

2026 wink wink


There is no one in this internal to the company that can do it. Chapek was the best they had…

They won’t go outside the company.

Maybe Hugh G Johnston (sorry it’s the most perfect name)?

Is Peter Guzinya not available?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Thank you. It’s like watching a car in forward momentum and crying it’s driving backwards. He’s a complete idiot.

DTC was already on the verge of profitability in this past quarter. It seems pretty clear if their subscriber goals and ARPU sticks DTC is profitable now… minus perhaps oodles of Swift aqusition spend?

I don’t get it, we can watch the trend line easily and Bob is actually downplaying it something fierce.

Watch the clip…#281

 

[BrianLo]

2026 wink wink


There is no one in this internal to the company that can do it. Chapek was the best they had…

They won’t go outside the company.

Maybe Hugh G Johnston (sorry it’s the most perfect name)?

I personally don’t want Iger gone so badly that I need to ink a contract with the proverbial devils. He needs to leave in a stable manner, in 2026. It is what it is now.

Maybe Paul Pressler can also be co-CEO and I can just join the dark side?

 

[WhyteAL]

People are visiting Florida in general but avoiding the parks. That tells me price is keeping them away.

Great article, prices are definitely an issue. There are two others that also influence the avoidance as well.

Ticket Prices, Weather, and Park Navigation.

Ticket prices shouldn't be so high, especially if you are going to spend 3X as much once inside the park. A family of 4 shouldn't spend 800 bucks simply to get inside a park. I enjoyed a week in Colorado for the same as 4-5 days in Disney early in 2023. I've priced out our trips to Italy for cheaper than it costs to go to Disney for a week.

During summers (Florida summers mind you start April-ish until October-ish) the parks are insanely hot. There aren't many places to stay cool if you want to "enjoy" the experiences. If you aren't an AP you are forced to attempt to tackle a theme park during your registered day at 90+ degrees!

Park navigation. I have heard from many of my co-workers and friends that the parks are simply too confusing to enjoy the rides and experiences (this is also tied to ticket prices). Genie + is not the answer, Disney plus routes you all over the parks which takes away from the immersion aspect of the Disney experience. (there was a great article on this recently, but I can't seem to find it to include on this post)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I personally don’t want Iger gone so badly that I need to ink a contract with the proverbial devils. He needs to leave in a stable manner, in 2026. It is what it is now.

Maybe Paul Pressler can also be co-CEO and I can just join the dark side?

This isn’t a 2 person horse race between Peltz and CMB…

It continues to be painted as so…but the world isn’t that small or simple

 

[monothingie]

DTC was already on the verge of profitability in this past quarter. It seems pretty clear if their subscriber goals and ARPU sticks DTC is profitable now… minus perhaps oodles of Swift aqusition spend?

Ok let’s give you that for the rest of the year D+ becomes profitable. Maybe starting small and then going to a $100-200M to be generous by the end of the FY.

The long term profitability is still a fraction of Parks and Experiences and it will be years before it recovers the billions in losses up until the point it became profitable. It’s just going to meander around with meager profitable quarters and meager loss quarters.

D+ was sold to investors as this money printing machine that will change the company. Nothing indicates that that will happen anytime soon.

 

[TalkingHead]

What’s the long-term plan for original programming to keep eyeballs on the streaming platform? They’ve cut costs which included canceling or slowing production of expensive $200m-style series, but isn’t that what they’ve branded as the primary ongoing reason to subscribe? They stress the importance of franchises but that requires them to continue producing expensive series that diehards will watch but which potentially diminish the franchises when they do release installments theatrically. How does moving steaming originals into theatrical product affect streaming subscriptions? How does that affect the creative process and critical reaction of tv content rebranded as theatrical content? The streaming platform’s long-term marketable identity should be a concern unless its fate is to be the thing parents subscribe to so their kids can watch Frozen for the millionth time.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Ok let’s give you that for the rest of the year D+ becomes profitable. Maybe starting small and then going to a $100-200M to be generous by the end of the FY.

The long term profitability is still a fraction of Parks and Experiences and it will be years before it recovers the billions in losses up until the point it became profitable. It’s just going to meander around with meager profitable quarters and meager loss quarters.

D+ was sold to investors as this money printing machine that will change the company. Nothing indicates that that will happen anytime soon.

No media analyst on earth has ever said D+ is going to be hugely profitable. Not one.

The problem with Disney fans of late is that they are under the 100% false impression that Bob can’t be wrong about anything.

So since he’s been preaching they’ll make big money for 5 years…then it has to be a fact.

No. As you said…it will probably be marginal at best.

But you know what has made TWDC real money? Like gobs of it. Consistently…without fail?

It’s on the map…more than one correct answer

 

[BrianLo]

You've gotten all kinds of good parks news the last 2 D23 events. Encanto, Villans, Coco, more Moana... What more do you want?!?!?! All things that have op... started constr.... ummm... never mind.

I’m not directing this bit at you, but just using this as a jumping off point. I keep seeing so much hoopla about the lack of spend at WDW… but we had a figure of the 60. It’s 17. It’s the other parks that are more nebulous. DLR seems to be ‘contractually’ committing 2.5B to Disneyland Forward. Which isn’t the same as their total desire. Nor would include infrastructure like the Eastern Gateway. We have no idea how the rest goes.

Heck, I think and support 10 for DCL. It’s a great business, with high margins and rife for expansion. They would do well with another 4-6 ships this next ‘decade’. But DCL isn’t sucking the air out of the room. DCL isn’t getting 20. In fact, WDW is seemingly getting largest share. WDW is getting 17, again (supposedly).


The phenomenon at the last two events (well one real event and one unusually new heavy Destination, that are historically anything but). Josh simply didn’t have funding commitments in Sept 2022. One of three things were going down and we’ll likely never get the real story. Either Chapek was in part behind it all and had his own plans to release parks purse strings. D’amaro was totally shooting from the hip and using fans as a sales pitch for his boss (with his awareness)… or Josh came to protect his reputation with the fans and make up a total lie, throwing some animated studios heads under the bus. If it was fully the third, I doubt he’d be long for his role.

Things are coming. There is money. No, they won’t come fast enough. But we are now 18 months into funding commitments, so I damn well expect a direction out of this D23. Even if there is no Galaxies Edge breaking ground in October, I expect things of substance - and things that will start before D23 2026.

Otherwise they are constantly lying to wall street. Which is bolder than usual.

Bob may be gone in 2026 (or hilariously not)… but Josh doesn’t seem to be exiting yet. Josh, in the absolute most pessimistic take, seems to care what park fans think of him, and what they think has to do with him adding things to the park. At best he likes them and is actively fighting for the betterment… but I don’t care, I can work with someone who is at least aware, because shockingly we haven’t had an exec who has tried to be for a long time. Other park execs actively ignored their reputation with fans and were mostly number crunchers.

 

[doctornick]

Tom Rogers appears to be an idiot. Streaming will be profitable by September, and the sub decline was expected this quarter as they took a significant price increase.

Subscription loss but increased revenues seem fine to me. I think there is still questions about streaming, but being bearish because of a small percentage subscription decrease (despite a rise in price) while the numbers are trending in the right direction seems odd.

 

[monothingie]

No media analyst on earth has ever said D+ is going to be hugely profitable. Not one.

The problem with Disney fans of late is that they are under the 100% false impression that Bob can’t be wrong about anything.

So since he’s been preaching they’ll make big money for 5 years…then it has to be a fact.

No. As you said…it will probably be marginal at best.

But you know what has made TWDC real money? Like gobs of it. Consistently…without fail?

It’s on the map…more than one correct answer

Sell it off and just focus on content creation and parks. Let others pay you billions for licensing the DTC rights.

Let Netflix pay for your $200M Marvel Series.

 

[Indy_UK]

This is why I am sick to death of Iger

We believe DTC is going to be this massive tentpole for the company going forward….


Bob it doesn’t make any money and yet the parks which print money gets ignored and gets used to plug your losses.

Expansions starting in 2025? Maybe the Frozen land in Paris but that’s going to slip to 2026 probably. Maybe he was referring to Epic Universe and forgot that Universal own that?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m not directing this bit at you, but just using this as a jumping off point. I keep seeing so much hoopla about the lack of spend at WDW… but we had a figure of the 60. It’s 17. It’s the other parks that are more nebulous. DLR seems to be ‘contractually’ committing 2.5B to Disneyland Forward. Which isn’t the same as their total desire. Nor would include infrastructure like the Eastern Gateway. We have no idea how the rest goes.

Heck, I think and support 10 for DCL. It’s a great business, with high margins and rife for expansion. They would do well with another 4-6 ships this next ‘decade’. But DCL isn’t sucking the air out of the room. DCL isn’t getting 20. In fact, WDW is seemingly getting largest share. WDW is getting 17, again (supposedly).


The phenomenon at the last two events (well one real event and one unusually new heavy Destination, that are historically anything but). Josh simply didn’t have funding commitments in Sept 2022. One of three things were going down and we’ll likely never get the real story. Either Chapek was in part behind it all and had his own plans to release parks purse strings. D’amaro was totally shooting from the hip and using fans as a sales pitch for his boss (with his awareness)… or Josh came to protect his reputation with the fans and make up a total lie, throwing some animated studios heads under the bus. If it was fully the third, I doubt he’d be long for his role.

Things are coming. There is money. No, they won’t come fast enough. But we are now 18 months into funding commitments, so I damn well expect a direction out of this D23. Even if there is no Galaxies Edge breaking ground in October, I expect things of substance - and things that will start before D23 2026.

Otherwise they are constantly lying to wall street. Which is bolder than usual.

Bob may be gone in 2026 (or hilariously not)… but Josh doesn’t seem to be exiting yet. Josh, in the absolute most pessimistic take, seems to care what park fans think of him, and what they think has to do with him adding things to the park. At best he likes them and is actively fighting for the betterment… but I don’t care, I can work with someone who is at least aware, because shockingly we haven’t had an exec who has tried to be for a long time. Other park execs actively ignored their reputation with fans and were mostly number crunchers.

I missed the part where any of that is binding?

That hidden SEC law that never existed?
…right

Because such a thing was never true.

You forget the circumstances of that $60 pledge
Bob was already under duress…Bob was fighting Florida…and at that time - Florida had the hottest political ticket - thankfully now a pathetic has been - front and center against Disney.

So it made sense to make those platitudes. Still does. But the reality is a ceo talking about spending any amount in the future is a ruse. 10 years is a flat out joke.

But let’s say even that $17 bil number is true…
The realty is most of that will get sucked up by boring things like roadways, buses and canal dredging…solar grids…new treatment plants…lighting upgrades…IT…room renovations…etc etc etc

And you may get what you got from 2012-2019…

And guess what that ended up being?
Not close to enough. They’re as much behind the curve now as when they started.

And it is deliberate. Bad manager…bad strategy.

And when you say “Josh”…all I can wonder is when does you shift start?

 

[BrianLo]

Ok let’s give you that for the rest of the year D+ becomes profitable. Maybe starting small and then going to a $100-200M to be generous by the end of the FY.

The long term profitability is still a fraction of Parks and Experiences and it will be years before it recovers the billions in losses up until the point it became profitable. It’s just going to meander around with meager profitable quarters and meager loss quarters.

D+ was sold to investors as this money printing machine that will change the company. Nothing indicates that that will happen anytime soon.

Isn’t that the first step though? We’ve reversed over 1.3B a quarter of losses since Iger has been back. Look to Netflix that has wildly clamped down and fixed its narrative in 18 months. The momentum doesn’t stop. More subscribers onboard, prices continue to go up. Content spend loosens, but in a fashion more with sustainable growth than unremitting stock pumping growth.

The cash burn on creating D+ though is shockingly less than the acquisition costs of Hulu. Though I’ll fully get ahead and admit the damages to the Studios have been way more than anticipated.

 

[monothingie]

Isn’t that the first step though? We’ve reversed over 1.3B a quarter of losses since Iger has been back. Look to Netflix that has wildly clamped down and fixed its narrative in 18 months. The momentum doesn’t stop. More subscribers onboard, prices continue to go up. Content spend loosens, but in a fashion more with sustainable growth than unremitting stock pumping growth.

The cash burn on creating D+ though is shockingly less than the acquisition costs of Hulu. Though I’ll fully get ahead and admit the damages to the Studios have been way more than anticipated.

Great they’ve gone from loosing a cruise ship a quarter to basically breaking even or making a mediocre profit.

Good job guys?

As structured there is no pathway to bring in revenue equivalent to Parks. None. But since all the cool kids are doing streaming Disney needs to as well. Meanwhile WDW the ATM of the company just gets the scraps in between the beatings.

 

[BrianLo]

I missed the part where any of that is binding?

That hidden SEC law that never existed?
…right

Because such a thing was never true.

You forget the circumstances of that $60 pledge
Bob was already under duress…Bob was fighting Florida…and at that time - Florida had the hottest political ticket - thankfully now a pathetic has been - front and center against Disney.

So it made sense to make those platitudes. Still does. But the reality is a ceo talking about spending any amount in the future is a ruse. 10 years is a flat out joke.

But let’s say even that $17 bil number is true…
The realty is most of that will get sucked up by boring things like roadways, buses and canal dredging…solar grids…new treatment plants…lighting upgrades…IT…room renovations…etc etc etc

And you may get what you got from 2012-2019…

And guess what that ended up being?
Not close to enough. They’re as much behind the curve now as when they started.

And it is deliberate. Bad manager…bad strategy.

And when you say “Josh”…all I can wonder is when does you shift start?

Only Disneyland’s is vaguely binding with mild financial penalties (if of course the city approves it). You are right, none of it may come to pass. But expecting nothing is boring. At least they are pretending.

As per Josh… you said Bob multiple times? Are you planning to shower with him tonight as well? Gotta get that dirt from a nasty call off.

But in jest, it’s his name. I’m 100 percent joking with you just so the internet intent comes across correctly. I’m a Canadian physician on vacation in New Zealand currently and I probably use a fraction of my vacation time for Disney compared to the average board user. Maybe even you? I have not, nor ever will I work for Disney (or have a desire to work in America). Just so we’re clear, I do in fact have boundaries and limited disclosures.