News Walt Disney World to resume sales of Annual Passes (New sales resume April 20, 2023)

Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
pdude81 said:
I thought you hinted about them giving you a shot outside the window, but I'm not great at reading tea leaves.

I can't fathom why they would ever block dvc from ap purchases while allowing Florida residents. But to me the more insane behavior is letting DS hotels get on site perks in any era. That stupidity continues to this day
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They made what was sold so highly restrictive That it can’t be used not only by vacationers…but even weekenders

My hunch is they didn’t want to fully stop Florida residents in case a recession sets in…
…and let’s see how that unfolds?
 
CentralFLlife

CentralFLlife

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Those circumstances are gonna happen because there’s literally almost zero chance of this economic slide not rolling out. The stock market is expected to slide between 27 and 50% by the end of 2024 and travel is already on that trajectory.
It’s a lot of things…but mostly consumer credit.
Even groceries fell in March…because it went way too far.

So Disney needs the business…they need Florida and they really need dvc…

They’ll never admit it…which luckily doesn’t affect the truth at all
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Buddy if the stock market drops 50% by the end of 2024, we have a lot bigger issues than annual passes.

Go outside and touch some grass
 
T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
Those circumstances are gonna happen because there’s literally almost zero chance of this economic slide not rolling out. The stock market is expected to slide between 27 and 50% by the end of 2024 and travel is already on that trajectory.
It’s a lot of things…but mostly consumer credit.
Even groceries fell in March…because it went way too far.

So Disney needs the business…they need Florida and they really need dvc…

They’ll never admit it…which luckily doesn’t affect the truth at all
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So the stock market already dropped 20% from its all time high, it bounced back, but it’s still 10% off it’s all time high but you are predicting a 27-50% drop from here. So you expect the peak to valley to be 37% to 60%. The worst case scenario would be the worst stock market crash since WWII and best case is it’s the fourth worst behind 73, 00, and 08. That’s some deep bear thinking right there.

I don’t pretend to be able to predict the market and I’m pretty pessimistic myself but you’re making me look like an optimist. I wouldn’t be surprised by another 20% drop but for the market to lose over 50% of its value, and most of it in the next 9 months is going to require a black swan. I guess if China invaded Taiwan it could happen, or Russia goes nuclear but short of that I think you’re crazy.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Touchdown said:
So the stock market already dropped 20% from its all time high, it bounced back, but it’s still 10% off it’s all time high but you are predicting a 27-50% drop from here. So you expect the peak to valley to be 37% to 60%. The worst case scenario would be the worst stock market crash since WWII and best case is it’s the fourth worst behind 73, 00, and 08. That’s some deep bear thinking right there.

I don’t pretend to be able to predict the market and I’m pretty pessimistic myself but you’re making me look like an optimist. I wouldn’t be surprised by another 20% drop but for the market to lose over 50% of its value, and most of it in the next 9 months is going to require a black swan. I guess if China invaded Taiwan it could happen, or Russia goes nuclear but short of that I think you’re crazy.
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I’m not an economist…it’s not me predicting this. It’s big wigs such as Jamie dimon and Jeremy Grantham…people who what they’re looking at and have a history.

Even the fed said “recession” outloud two days ago…which you know they aren’t really allowed to do.

My own little morsels are some close contacts in banking and insurance that say they’re quietly expecting bad.

Consumer credit outlay is not only at an all time high…but it’s dangerously maxed out.

A 13 year “boom” is unnatural…and you simply cannot double prices in short order and that's exactly what has happened.

I don’t make the rules. But anyone who doesn’t view the stock market as risky beware. It’s always a form or elaborate gambling based on “confidence” and nobody wants to hear it.
 
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T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
I’m not an economist…it’s not me predicting this. It’s big wigs such as Jamie dimon and Jeremy Grantham…people who what they’re looking at and have a history.

Even the fed said “recession” outloud two days ago…which you know they aren’t reall out to do.

My own little morsels are some close contacts in banking and insurance that say they’re quietly expecting bad.

Consumer credit outlay is not only at an all time high…but it’s dangerously maxed out.

A 13 year “boom” is unnatural…and you simply cannot doubly prices in short order and that's exactly what has happened.

I don’t make the rules. But anyone who doesn’t view the stock market as risky beware. It’s always a form or elaborate gambling based on “confidence” and nobody wants to hear it.
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No one can predict the market, that’s proven time and time again. Like I said I’m not bullish in the short term either but anyone who predicts that the world is going to end is probably trying to sell you something. Stocks are always risky, and their prediction could happen, but I was simply pointing out how outrageous the prediction is. If you believe them, then you think something worse than 2007 is about to happen. I’m simply pointing out that in order for that to happen it’s going to take a black swan (which are by definition unpredictable) or a world war.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Touchdown said:
No one can predict the market, that’s proven time and time again. Like I said I’m not bullish in the short term either but anyone who predicts that the world is going to end is probably trying to sell you something. Stocks are always risky, and their prediction could happen, but I was simply pointing out how outrageous the prediction is. If you believe them, then you think something worse than 2007 is about to happen. I’m simply pointing out that in order for that to happen it’s going to take a black swan (which are by definition unpredictable) or a world war.
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I’m not saying the world is gonna end. Far from it. But “free money” like the laughable dividends cannot increase forever based on math, logic and indicators.

This is the kinda thing where investors are like Disney fans: they fold there arms, shake their heads and won’t hear it. Only more money for nothing…NO OTHER POSSIBILITIES!!😡

financial people always have angles - no doubt. So we’ll see it play.

The wise move is probably to diversify…but you do you 😎
 
T

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
The wise move is probably to diversify…but you do you 😎
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30% Bond index fund
56% US TSM index fund
14% International index fund

And no plans to spend that money for 20+ years, where the data and my faith in a good outcome is much higher. I have an ample emergency fund and no debt, so shouldn’t be tripped up in the short term either. Can’t see how I’m not as diversified as I can get.
 
Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Touchdown said:
30% Bond index fund
56% US TSM index fund
14% International index fund

And no plans to spend that money for 20+ years, where the data and my faith in a good outcome is much higher. I have an ample emergency fund and no debt, so shouldn’t be tripped up in the short term either. Can’t see how I’m not as diversified as I can get.
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Good boy…

You just seemed “prickly”

I know your intelligence level. So I assume we agree and you view it as a long term strategy with some obvious inherent risk stemming from human greed?
 
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Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Yeah people miss the part about it only being as close to a sure thing as you can get only if you keep the money in a well diversified account for 20-30 years, but still not guaranteed. The only problem is every other option is guaranteed to lose you money (due to inflation) during that long of a horizon.
 

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