Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[HairyChest]

 

[JoeCamel]

For those that think the status quo is a goal and will ignore long covid how about the country will be shrinking not growing?
Is this the path to a prosperous future?
Might slow down the crowds at WDW but in the long run it just might kill your 401k

Deaths Exceeded Births in a Record Number of States in 2020

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that many more deaths, fewer births, and less immigration produced the United States’ smallest percentage population gain in at least 100 years.

carsey.unh.edu

 

[danlb_2000]

This has been completely twisted into meaning every virus just becomes a minor nuisance. Smallpox didn’t evolve into just a rash. HIV left untreated isn’t just something swimming around. Flu seasons fluctuate in impact year to year because severity of strains isn’t constant. Pandemic flus happen and can still happen because severity can change with mutation. The mean of severity can be less than it was before but that doesn’t mean it will settle at very low or cannot fluctuate.

A highly infectious virus doesn’t need a lot of time to replicate and spread, so there is not much disadvantage to the virus if you die. As far as the virus is concerned there no difference if you are immune or dead, you’re not a viable host.

HIV is an interesting example. You can be infected for 5 to 10 years before it develops into AIDS. So un-treated this is a virus that kills extremely slowly but still has an over 90% mortality rate.

 

[mmascari]

Might slow down the crowds at WDW but in the long run it just might kill your 401k

What's the time line on each of those?

Could we slow down the crowds on something like a 2-5 year time frame.
Could we hold off on the 401K death for say 15 years?

Give us a nice sweet spot in the middle.

I could be convinced.

 

[hopemax]

If it is, then it is but the scientific consensus is that viruses tend to mutate in a way that makes them less virulent over time. The "goal" of a virus is to replicate and spread. If it kills the host at a high rate that goes against the goal because the host is less able to spread it.

This is wrong. We've been over this before, and it's one of the pieces of misinformation that virologists have been trying to correct this whole time. Their best guess is that the virulence of Omicron appears to be so much less because of the confounding factor of vaccination (edit to add for @DisneyCane... infection immunity). It is less virulent than Delta, but it is not presumed to be less virulent than the original Wuhan strain. Multiple Covid-19 VOCs were more virulent compared to the previous one. Omicron is an exception, but that does not make it the start of a trend.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2119682

"Viruses don’t inevitably evolve toward being less virulent; evolution simply selects those that excel at multiplying. In the case of Covid-19, in which the vast majority of transmission occurs before disease becomes severe, reduced severity may not be directly selected for at all. "

 

[Andrew C]

Free Washington Post link.

Coronavirus vaccine for young children further delayed as FDA says it will wait for data on three doses​

https://wapo.st/3gDlL6H

What did i say....

 

[DisneyCane]

This is wrong. We've been over this before, and it's one of the pieces of misinformation that virologists have been trying to correct this whole time. Their best guess is that the virulence of Omicron appears to be so much less because of the confounding factor of vaccination. It is less virulent than Delta, but it is not presumed to be less virulent than the original Wuhan strain. Multiple Covid-19 VOCs were more virulent compared to the previous one. Omicron is an exception, but that does not make it the start of a trend.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2119682

"Viruses don’t inevitably evolve toward being less virulent; evolution simply selects those that excel at multiplying. In the case of Covid-19, in which the vast majority of transmission occurs before disease becomes severe, reduced severity may not be directly selected for at all. "

I choose the optimistic experts. If the lower virulence of Omicron is solely due to vaccination then why was it less virulent in South Africa where the vaccination rate is/was relatively low?

 

[DisneyCane]

Wouldn't they just remove them unless they were going to go with the "masks required for unvaccinated people" option that didn't get followed at all the last time?

 

[Trauma]

For those that think the status quo is a goal and will ignore long covid how about the country will be shrinking not growing?
Is this the path to a prosperous future?
Might slow down the crowds at WDW but in the long run it just might kill your 401k

Deaths Exceeded Births in a Record Number of States in 2020

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that many more deaths, fewer births, and less immigration produced the United States’ smallest percentage population gain in at least 100 years.

carsey.unh.edu

The pain in your 401k will be here much sooner than you think.

 

[lazyboy97o]

HIV is an interesting example. You can be infected for 5 to 10 years before it develops into AIDS. So un-treated this is a virus that kills extremely slowly but still has an over 90% mortality rate.

And that’s just it, there is no single path that viruses take. Time and again SAR-CoV-2 had done things in unique and unexpected ways and yet people continue to declare it will follow a certain path. Some of the longer impacts that we have seen from COVID have not aligned to severity which suggest we could still have a situation where the initial disease for most isn’t much but then something worse happens later, be it reduced fertility or blood clots or memory loss or whatever. I believe it was @hopemax who provided the information about life insurers seeing an increase in young adult and middle age deaths that are tied to things like cardiac events, not a bout of sever COVID.

 

[hopemax]

For those that think the status quo is a goal and will ignore long covid how about the country will be shrinking not growing?
Is this the path to a prosperous future?
Might slow down the crowds at WDW but in the long run it just might kill your 401k

Deaths Exceeded Births in a Record Number of States in 2020

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that many more deaths, fewer births, and less immigration produced the United States’ smallest percentage population gain in at least 100 years.

carsey.unh.edu

Unfortunately, the other thing is probably going to be more of a direct and immediate threat to a prosperous future. High energy prices and the resulting inflationary effects are going to be the closer bear in the mirror. Which is probably the actual cause of the rapid shoving of Covid aside. We won't fight a war on two fronts (I'm not implying actual war for the US, just that fighting over masks or other mitigation is no longer something we can afford with the backdrop of greater economic stress.) The health challenges of several million people will just be the cherry on top on the pain for those several million people.

 

[correcaminos]

There are billions of variants being created right now. They’re not named or identified because most of them never leave their host’s body. The way a variant spreads and gains significant traction is by being more contagious. It has to be better at replicating. There is no indirect relationship between transmissibility and severity of illness, that next dominant variant absolutely could be more severe.

Yes, it can be. But... again unless this is an earth-changing virus, and I see no reason to believe it, I have no reason to believe it will keep getting worse and worse.

Again I wear my mask. I am vaccinated. I'm not against mask mandates or vaccine mandates when necessary, but the reality is, this will not going on like this forever. Those of us saying it do so for a reason - and it's not because we pretend it won't go away. Please understand that it is a very negative outlook to assume it will always be here and be horrible. That's just not the way historically any virus like this has gone. So I believe that will absolutely happen here again. Much like other cold and flu viruses. As I posted earlier even a common cold virus we have now was this deadly. Now it's not.

For the last time too - I am all for keeping mandates for masks until the wave ends. Just like before. So I'm not some covid denier. I already posted why many scientists agree this won't keep on the way it is. Granted some don't agree, but assuming this is our life forever? I'm not game for that and I'm usually uber negative.

 

[hopemax]

I choose the optimistic experts. If the lower virulence of Omicron is solely due to vaccination then why was it less virulent in South Africa where the vaccination rate is/was relatively low?

Sorry. I edited my post to include "infection immunity." A less immunological naïve population by either means, confounds the evaluation of intrinsic severity.

 

[danlb_2000]

I choose the optimistic experts. If the lower virulence of Omicron is solely due to vaccination then why was it less virulent in South Africa where the vaccination rate is/was relatively low?

maybe due to vaccination and previous infection. South Africa likely had a high rate of infection from previous variants.

 

[AEfx]

Plus most people who are willing to go to WDW right now likely aren’t too concerned about the virus and thus don’t want to mask.

Bingo.

With all the arguing back and forth about masks, this point has been lost as the obvious answer.

If you are booking a trip to a Petri dish environment like WDW (or a cruise, etc.), you clearly aren't personally concerned about COVID.

 

[HairyChest]

Wouldn't they just remove them unless they were going to go with the "masks required for unvaccinated people" option that didn't get followed at all the last time?

Californias mask mandate removal is only for the vaccinated.

 

[correcaminos]

For those that think the status quo is a goal and will ignore long covid how about the country will be shrinking not growing?
Is this the path to a prosperous future?
Might slow down the crowds at WDW but in the long run it just might kill your 401k

Deaths Exceeded Births in a Record Number of States in 2020

In this data snapshot, author Kenneth Johnson reports that many more deaths, fewer births, and less immigration produced the United States’ smallest percentage population gain in at least 100 years.

carsey.unh.edu

now I like a lot of what you say, but this is really one of the more odd takes on the negatives of covid. A lot of green people will be like - yes covid sucks, but less population? Not bad.....

Edit to clarify in no way shape or form am I praising covid for anything. Not even close. Just saying getting worried about a decrease in population is not something as a whole all think is something that is a concern. We just want to do it in smart ways to help reduce impacts on the globe. Sorry if anyone felt I meant that.

 

[Tom P.]

Californias mask mandate removal is only for the vaccinated.

On paper. We saw last year what that means in practice. No masks.

 

[correcaminos]

On paper. We saw last year what that means in practice. No masks.

yup

 

[Heppenheimer]

Free Washington Post link.

Coronavirus vaccine for young children further delayed as FDA says it will wait for data on three doses​

https://wapo.st/3gDlL6H

I'm actually glad for this. Showing a clear benefit will make a much stronger case for approval, and it will make my job of explaining this to parents much easier.

Of course, if the data doesn't line up for the third shot, they'll need to go back to the beginning with a higher dose.