Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[celluloid]

My point was to the type of parent cussing out the school for following safety protocol such as the NJ story. Not a generalization. Education is not entitled to keep the child because it inconveniences the parent. The same way many extremists do not understand how doctors and expert opinions work, do not understand how school professional functions work.

The problem with people having to leave the work force is difficult, but no fault of the school system. That is either on the parents tough choices to change lifestyles for the sake of their children's health or a work situation that needs to be more understanding on a person with kids taking time off in an extreme and somewhat rare situation for health.

 

[Heelz2315]

Didn't see the Florida weekly report mentioned, but it's down to 25792 new cases for the week (drop of 12k from week prior) or about 3785 a day avg. (And falling) Positivity is below 5% statewide at 4.8%. (last week was 6.6%)

full report below:

http://ww11.doh.state.fl.us/comm/_partners/covid19_report_archive/covid19-data/covid19_data_latest.pdf

(edit: it was posted 2 pages back) but just the first page.

Orange Co/WDW should drop the indoor masks ASAP if they go by the CDC guidelines

 

[drizgirl]

My point was to the type of parent cussing out the school for following safety protocol such as the NJ story. Not a generalization. Education is not entitled to keep the child because it inconveniences the parent. The same way many extremists do not understand how doctors and expert opinions work, do not understand how school professional functions work.

The problem with people having to leave the work force is difficult, but no fault of the school system. That is either on the parents tough choices to change lifestyles for the sake of their children's health or a work situation that needs to be more understanding on a person with kids taking time off in an extreme and somewhat rare situation for health.

But you did generalize. Maybe next time be more specific. I've heard the same generalized comment from others since the pandemic started.

The leap to "extremists" is odd.

 

[correcaminos]

Orange Co/WDW should drop the indoor masks ASAP if they go by the CDC guidelines

CDC has them as high though https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tr...orida|12095|Risk|community_transmission_level

 

[Incomudro]

It is daycare allowing the parent to work.
We went from a one income family being enough to needing two incomes to raise a family.
We went to needing more and more when enough would do
We went from a majority of married couples with children together to many single parents raising children
It absolutely is a babysitter/daycare today allowing many to maintain income for the family.

This is true, particularly in urban areas.
Public schools have become the places kids get two out of their three meals a day.
It's also why mayors (NYC for instance) are highly reluctant to close schools for snow days.

 

[Heelz2315]

But you did generalize. Maybe next time be more specific. I've heard the same generalized comment from others since the pandemic started.

The leap to "extremists" is odd.

How that's measured doesn't make sense. By their own definition they're under the "high" category, which is defined as a one week positivity rate of 10%+ if I'm reading that right. They're now at 6.09%. They're in the moderate with levels like that. And probably 1 week from being in the low category. They are totally out of the high range. That should be changed.

 

[dreday3]

How that's measured doesn't make sense. By their own definition they're under the "high" category, which is defined as a one week positivity rate of 10%+ if I'm reading that right. They're now at 6.09%. They're in the moderate with levels like that. And probably 1 week from being in the low category. They are totally out of the high range. That should be changed.

It also goes by case per 100,000 (or something).

Cook County IL is 1.99% positivity according to CDC, but we are still high according to them. I guess using the above metric.

 

[Chi84]

It also goes by case per 100,000 (or something).

Cook County IL is 1.99% positivity according to CDC, but we are still high according to them. I guess using the above metric.

This is hilarious. I just looked up that statistic, apparently as you were typing your comment. If we're still "high" at 1.99% positivity, the CDC metric should be changed - at least if they want to remain credible and have people actually follow their guidance.

 

[DisneyFan32]

This is hilarious. I just looked up that statistic, apparently as you were typing your comment. If we're still "high" at 1.99% positivity, the CDC metric should be changed - at least if they want to remain credible and have people actually follow their guidance.

I think NJ Transit and CDC will have to talk about losing masks for trains and buses next year if the cases are low enough for NJ/NY as possible.

 

[MisterPenguin]

FL state got under 5% positivity (on a 7 day average) only two days ago.

Orange County is still over 5%.

So...

 

[DisneyCane]

CDC has them as high though https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tr...orida|12095|Risk|community_transmission_level

If you look at the fine print on the CDC map it is based on data that is a few days old.

 

[DisneyCane]

It also goes by case per 100,000 (or something).

Cook County IL is 1.99% positivity according to CDC, but we are still high according to them. I guess using the above metric.

This is hilarious. I just looked up that statistic, apparently as you were typing your comment. If we're still "high" at 1.99% positivity, the CDC metric should be changed - at least if they want to remain credible and have people actually follow their guidance.

If you look at the description on the CDC map page it requires both the positivity and cases per 100k to be below thier trigger points to move to a lower level. I guess it prevents places from doing ridiculous amounts of testing but and ending up with low positivity but a lot of active cases. Even in the worst spikes if you tested enough people the positivity would be under 5%.

 

[correcaminos]

If you look at the fine print on the CDC map it is based on data that is a few days old.

Oh for goodness sake. They'll still be too high for no masks if they drop one level in a couple days. CDC measures are far more strict than what people are thinking. Most of the counties are red. Even orange suggests masks.

 

[mmascari]

This is hilarious. I just looked up that statistic, apparently as you were typing your comment. If we're still "high" at 1.99% positivity, the CDC metric should be changed - at least if they want to remain credible and have people actually follow their guidance.

It’s always been both. A better question might be, with the positivity so low, that indicates they know where spread is happening. Why can’t they get the case counts to also come down too?

Positivity by itself has always been a poor measure. The color shows that you need the case counts to come down too.

 

[DisneyCane]

It’s always been both. A better question might be, with the positivity so low, that indicates they know where spread is happening. Why can’t they get the case counts to also come down too?

Positivity by itself has always been a poor measure. The color shows that you need the case counts to come down too.

Positivity is just a measure that indicates if enough testing is being done to be sure that the vast majority of cases are being detected. I'm not exactly sure when 5% became the gold standard because in the beginning it was 10%. That wasn't COVID specific, it was a rule of thumb in epidemiology that Dr. Birx gave a long explanation about last year.

 

[mmascari]

Positivity is just a measure that indicates if enough testing is being done to be sure that the vast majority of cases are being detected. I'm not exactly sure when 5% became the gold standard because in the beginning it was 10%. That wasn't COVID specific, it was a rule of thumb in epidemiology that Dr. Birx gave a long explanation about last year.

Exactly, Positivity tells you enough testing is being done. Which makes it a stupid measure to use for turning on or off mitigations. Transmission occurring in general is a much better measure for starting and stopping mitigations. Combined with positivity, it tells you if the case count measure is realistic or just a mirage.

I don't remember 10% every being a thing, but doesn't matter that much. It's not some light switch but more of a continuum. Values under 5% tell you that you have better idea where spread is occurring, you're catching more of the cases. Values above 10% would definitely mean there's spread occurring where nobody is aware of it. Better or worse information, not good or bad.

It's a good thing that FL is moving towards a better understanding of where spread is occurring and finding more of the actual cases that are out there.

It sounds like Cook County IL at 1.99% positivity should have a very good handle on where cases are. This should let them track and trace and work to stop spread. Which in turn will cause cases and general transmission to drop. If they've still got a high case rate, either the tracking and containment hasn't caught up yet, or something else is going on.

We need both to be low to move from red to orange to yellow to blue.

 

[Heelz2315]

I wish I knew which metric Disney used to measure restrictions.masks. I’d like to know for sure when they’ll be dropped indoors.

I have a feeling it’ll be spring but I have no way of knowing for sure

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Dropping mask mandates and other restrictions as soon as things start to show signs of improvement. What could go wrong?

If only we could turn to recent history to find out what happens...

 

[Bob Harlem]

Dropping mask mandates and other restrictions as soon as things start to show signs of improvement. What could go wrong?

If only we could turn to recent history to find out what happens...

Mask mandates are already long gone in most of Florida, and including every park that isn't Disney. The county's guidelines were that the recommendation would change at 5%, and that's what Disney was going by before. (The other parks only strongly suggested). So to be consistent with data and county recommendations, they should drop it when it goes below 5% in orange county, which is likely in the coming week or at latest, the week after. With no India style spikes elsewhere in the world, it's very likely the August surge was the worst one and will remain that. The studies on Florida Spread and projections, done at the University of Florida also back this up, which have been very accurate to date.

 

[DisneyCane]

Mask mandates are already long gone in most of Florida, and including every park that isn't Disney. The county's guidelines were that the recommendation would change at 5%, and that's what Disney was going by before. (The other parks only strongly suggested). So to be consistent with data and county recommendations, they should drop it when it goes below 5% in orange county, which is likely in the coming week or at latest, the week after. With no India style spikes elsewhere in the world, it's very likely the August surge was the worst one and will remain that. The studies on Florida Spread and projections, done at the University of Florida also back this up, which have been very accurate to date.

Mandates have been gone in all of Florida since 7/1/21 at latest. I can only assume that Disney will go by the CDC guidelines for the area. Possibly delayed by a few weeks for a buffer. Depending on timing they might wait for at least 3 weeks to pass from the 5-11 approval of the Pfizer vaccine.