WSJ: Even Disney Is Worried About The High Cost Of A Disney Vacation (gift link)

[lentesta]

Gift link here.

I started working with the WSJ on this back in November. I pointed out - as I've said here - that Disney prices its theme parks for the top 20% of American households by income - those with pre-tax earnings of $264K. And if we're being honest, Disney really focuses on the top 10%, 5%, and 1% of incomes.

Backing up those two sentences ended up being its own 40-page blog post, covering 150+ datasets on everything from household income, to consumer expenditure surveys, to metropolitan populations around NFL cities. Links to the datasets are in the post.

Here's the post: How Much Disney Can America's Middle Class Afford?

Thanks to @wdwmagic for letting me post this. And thanks to all of you for letting me try out here how I ended up explaining it. I appreciate you.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

not sure if the fact that I enjoyed your "fun facts" says more of about me or the quality of the article, but lets go with the later!

good stuff

 

[TheMaxRebo]

One thing I have found from talking to long time Disney goers who are in, likely, the 3rd or 4th income group is that they can still afford to go, but they can't "Do Disney" like they did in the past

They would stay on property and fly, and get Magical Express, Magic Bands, and FP+ included - plus, even at a value, have access to evening extra magic hours vs just the morning. Then with the rising costs of dining, even if in line with elsewhere, there is less in the budget for it so they are cutting back

So yeah, they could stay off property, go less days, etc - but that is a "lesser" experience than what they had 5-10 years ago which brings about negative feels.

Until the increase capacity comes I am just not sure how they can get more people to feel fully satisfied but also not having the parks feel over crowded - so those folks might be best off, for a while, going less frequently but allotting more $ per trip

 

[Animaniac93-98]

"Any survey, article, study or opinion that is not from our PR team is wrong"

- Disney Spokesperson

 

[Notes from Neverland]

It's all about the value proposition. You can have high prices if guests feel like they got enough value for their dollar. The removal of Magical Express, airport check-in, free fast pass, and more has eroded that value and is felt most by the group the article identifies as feeling priced out.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

International visitors to the USA typically stay longer and spend more money than domestic tourists.

In 2019 I think 20% of WDW visitors came from outside the USA, but I suspect they made up a higher % of overall spending.

It would be interesting to see how changes in international tourists have impacted Disney as well. Was Disney relying on them more before? Are there less of them now? Are they spending less too? (probably). Can Disney afford a noticeable decrease in them? Is that part of the reason why hotel occupancy is down?

 

[Trueblood]

Len, have some well-deserved Internet points and a virtual handshake for this research. Good job.

You've defined "affordability" based on a single-year vacation budget, and not taking on debt. I'm certain that families save for years to visit the WDW area, and sadly I'm pretty sure that at least some families finance the vacation on their credit card.

I've never seen a meaningful survey asking how long people saved to go on a trip.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

It's all about the value proposition. You can have high prices if guests feel like they got enough value for their dollar. The removal of Magical Express, airport check-in, free fast pass, and more has eroded that value and is felt most by the group the article identifies as feeling priced out.

yup - Disney has been and expensive vacation for quite a while but was easier to justify with what you got included vs other options. A lot harder to do that now

And while we still find great value in our trips - if in the best we felt like we got 200% return on our vacation budget investment, that is now 150% - which is still good and "worth it" but doesn't feel great when you used to get better return

 

[Ayla]

Gift link here.

I started working with the WSJ on this back in November. I pointed out - as I've said here - that Disney prices its theme parks for the top 20% of American households by income - those with pre-tax earnings of $264K. And if we're being honest, Disney really focuses on the top 10%, 5%, and 1% of incomes.

Backing up those two sentences ended up being its own 40-page blog post, covering 150+ datasets on everything from household income, to consumer expenditure surveys, to metropolitan populations around NFL cities. Links to the datasets are in the post.

Here's the post: How Much Disney Can America's Middle Class Afford?

Thanks to @wdwmagic for letting me post this. And thanks to all of you for letting me try out here how I ended up explaining it. I appreciate you.

And we appreciate YOU, Len. Thank you for everything you do!

 

[CAV]

One thing I have found from talking to long time Disney goers who are in, likely, the 3rd or 4th income group is that they can still afford to go, but they can't "Do Disney" like they did in the past

They would stay on property and fly, and get Magical Express, Magic Bands, and FP+ included - plus, even at a value, have access to evening extra magic hours vs just the morning. Then with the rising costs of dining, even if in line with elsewhere, there is less in the budget for it so they are cutting back

So yeah, they could stay off property, go less days, etc - but that is a "lesser" experience than what they had 5-10 years ago which brings about negative feels.

Until the increase capacity comes I am just not sure how they can get more people to feel fully satisfied but also not having the parks feel over crowded - so those folks might be best off, for a while, going less frequently but allotting more $ per trip

This is my situation. I pull considerably more than the amount listed. When I used to make +/- $100k, I would splurge for deluxe hotels, sit down dining, all the extras. I don't do it anymore. I rarely stay in anything but a moderate, and I hate paying that much. Most meals are counter service. No way in H E double hockey sticks will I pay for LL or maxpass or whatever they call it.

 

[lentesta]

Len, have some well-deserved Internet points and a virtual handshake for this research. Good job.

You've defined "affordability" based on a single-year vacation budget, and not taking on debt. I'm certain that families save for years to visit the WDW area, and sadly I'm pretty sure that at least some families finance the vacation on their credit card.

I've never seen a meaningful survey asking how long people saved to go on a trip.

That's my fault if it's not clear in the article or the blog.

Note #4 in the blog says this:

So the $1,887 the middle class (the 3rd income quintile) spent on travel in 2023 includes:

• Families who spent $0 in previous years to save up that $1,887
• Families who took on debt to spend that $1,887

I verified that via email with the BLS. They're great to work with.

 

[lentesta]

"Any survey, article, study or opinion that is not from our PR team is wrong"

- Disney Spokesperson

During the fact-checking process, someone from WSJ came back to me and said "Disney disputes your $3,800 number for a family in the 4th quintile of income. They say the cheapest vacation is $3,026 before food and transportation."

I was like "They actually said it out loud? Oh god. Print that."

 

[lentesta]

This is my situation. I pull considerably more than the amount listed. When I used to make +/- $100k, I would splurge for deluxe hotels, sit down dining, all the extras. I don't do it anymore. I rarely stay in anything but a moderate, and I hate paying that much. Most meals are counter service. No way in H E double hockey sticks will I pay for LL or maxpass or whatever they call it.

We didn't have the time or the data to run this, but one of the questions the editors wanted to explore was "What's the average household income of a household of 4 who can afford to stay at the Grand Floridian for 5 nights, with park hoppers, the standard dining plan, and Premier Pass for 4 days?"

It ended up being $13,000 before transportation, so roughly double what the average household in the top 20% of incomes spends on travel every year.

 

[Trueblood]

That's my fault if it's not clear in the article or the blog.

Note #4 in the blog says this:

View attachment 843426

So the $1,887 the middle class (the 3rd income quintile) spent on travel in 2023 includes:

• Families who spent $0 in previous years to save up that $1,887
• Families who took on debt to spend that $1,887

I verified that via email with the BLS. They're great to work with.

Ya' know, I even read that note, but it apparently wasn't part of my thinking as I read the rest. My sincere apologies.
("Hey, Trueblood, argue data with a professional data scientist.. that always goes well.")

 

[Jrb1979]

The crazy thing is that they know they are worried about pricing people out yet continue to increase prices on tickets, rooms and LLs.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

The crazy thing is that they know they are worried about pricing people out yet continue to increase prices on tickets, rooms and LLs.

But part of the analysis shows they realize they have reached the top end of what they can charge for the value traveler.

Yes, ticket prices have gone up, but you don't have to buy LL, so take that out, and the All Stars is cheaper today than it was in 2018 and also food is cheaper than it was in 2018 adjusted for inflation

So I think it is more trying to get more out of the people that have the money to spend on upcharges and are increasing what they spend on vacations in total - so I totally get it/strategy makes sense .... BUT how much can they do it and that group of traveler is also more likely to travel overseas, etc - what Disney is competing against is much harder to succeed against vs local options

Hotel Our family’s hotel prices have risen 29% more than inflation since 2011. The really surprising thing here is that a two-night stay at Disney’s All-Star Resort is slightly cheaper in 2025 versus 2018 after adjusting for inflation. That might indicate that Disney’s hit the price limit on the “value for money” decisions that families make. Pricing that Value resort any higher would push more families to stay at non-Disney hotels.

Food Similarly, the cost of theme park food for our family has risen 39% beyond inflation since 2011. And like hotel costs, those increases seem to have hit a limit by 2018, because food prices are down 3% in inflation-adjusted terms since then.

 

[AndyS2992]

Whilst it is sad people are 'priced out', it's a necessary evil. Imagine if the prices were significantly slashed and everyone could go, the parks would be slammed permanently, even more so than right now, capacity would be reached daily, shutting others out, all queues for rides, characters and food all 5 hours+. Just moving around the parks would be a chore. The whole experience would suffer significantly and crumble.

 

[dmc493]

Whilst it is sad people are 'priced out', it's a necessary evil. Imagine if the prices were significantly slashed and everyone could go, the parks would be slammed permanently, even more so than right now, capacity would be reached daily, shutting others out, all queues for rides, characters and food all 5 hours+. Just moving around the parks would be a chore. The whole experience would suffer significantly and crumble.

Disney's options aren't just crowded but affordable, and less crowded but expensive. They have a lot of different levers to pull that could provide more affordability without pushing parks to capacity every day

 

[Trueblood]

We didn't have the time or the data to run this, but one of the questions the editors wanted to explore was "What's the average household income of a household of 4 who can afford to stay at the Grand Floridian for 5 nights, with park hoppers, the standard dining plan, and Premier Pass for 4 days?"

It ended up being $13,000 before transportation, so roughly double what the average household in the top 20% of incomes spends on travel every year.

Out of random curiosity, I fed that question to Google Gemini and ChatGPT.
Gemini figured $250-300k/yr, ChatGPT figured $200-400k/yr.

That seems high to me.

 

[Jrb1979]

But part of the analysis shows they realize they have reached the top end of what they can charge for the value traveler.

Yes, ticket prices have gone up, but you don't have to buy LL, so take that out, and the All Stars is cheaper today than it was in 2018 and also food is cheaper than it was in 2018 adjusted for inflation

So I think it is more trying to get more out of the people that have the money to spend on upcharges and are increasing what they spend on vacations in total - so I totally get it/strategy makes sense .... BUT how much can they do it and that group of traveler is also more likely to travel overseas, etc - what Disney is competing against is much harder to succeed against vs local options

View attachment 843438

Hotel Our family’s hotel prices have risen 29% more than inflation since 2011. The really surprising thing here is that a two-night stay at Disney’s All-Star Resort is slightly cheaper in 2025 versus 2018 after adjusting for inflation. That might indicate that Disney’s hit the price limit on the “value for money” decisions that families make. Pricing that Value resort any higher would push more families to stay at non-Disney hotels.

Food Similarly, the cost of theme park food for our family has risen 39% beyond inflation since 2011. And like hotel costs, those increases seem to have hit a limit by 2018, because food prices are down 3% in inflation-adjusted terms since then.

IMO chasing higher revenue from those who have the money is not going to work. Many of those like you said would rather do Europe vacations or other types of travel. The parks were built for upper middle class not the 1-5% income earners in the world.

I know many here dismiss quotes from articles like these where people talk about the parks not worth the cost anymore. IMO it's mainly due to sites like this has fans that go to the parks still.