Will the WDW crowds be less when HP opens in Spring 2010

[RiversideBunny]

Universal Orlando has said that the new Harry Potter section will open in 'Spring 2010'.
Would that be a good time to plan a trip to WDW with the expectation that the crowds at WDW will be somewhat smaller then-
maybe even through the rest of the year?

Even if people go to Universal for 1 or 2 days and spend the rest of the time at WDW, that means a significant portion of the crowd could get sucked up by Universal.

Or will it make crowds larger at WDW in 2010 if more people go to Orlando who would otherwise not have gone.

 

[wm49rs]

Universal Orlando has said that the new Harry Potter section will open in 'Spring 2010'.
Would that be a good time to plan a trip to WDW with the expectation that the crowds at WDW will be somewhat smaller then- maybe even through the rest of the year?
Even if people go to Universal for 1 or 2 days and spend the rest of the time at WDW, that means a significant portion of the crowd could get sucked up by Universal.

Or would it make crowds larger at WDW if more people go to Orlando who would otherwise not have gone.

That's quite the "chicken and the egg" question you have there....

To which I would say: I have no idea. I think the question centers around how many people will travel to Orlando for the Grand Opening, and how long they make those travel plans for. If you're talking a quick 2-3 day trip, then I think WDW doesn't see any increase in visitors. Anything close to a week and I think the temptation to visit (and possibly compare the two parks) will be unavoidable.

But do we know what "Spring 2010" means exactly on the calendar?

 

[RiversideBunny]

They are hinting that it's probably mid April or May.
Link to preview-
http://www.universalorlandoresort.com/harrypotter/

I'm thinking that the average WDW guest plans a week's stay ahead of time. In other words they won't extend the Orlando vacation time to go to Universal, so if they do go to Universal then that takes a day, or two, out of the WDW park time.
If enough people do that then the average crowds at WDW could be down about 20%. Maybe.

 

[wm49rs]

They are hinting that it's probably mid April or May.
Link to preview-
http://www.universalorlandoresort.com/harrypotter/

I'm thinking that the average WDW guest plans a week's stay ahead of time. In other words they won't extend the Orlando vacation time to go to Universal so if they do go to Universal then that takes a day, or two, out of the WDW park time.
If enough people do that then the average crowds at WDW could be down about 20%. Maybe.

You may be right; I honestly don't know. I guess the only question I would ask is how many people going to WDW will head over to Universal as opposed to how many people will come down to the opening and head over to WDW. It could be a wash in the end....

That's not to say I wouldn't appreciate a drop in the crowd levels at any time...

 

[yeti]

If anything I would say bigger crowds at WDW.

 

[gullyf]

They are hinting that it's probably mid April or May.

I'm thinking that the average WDW guest plans a week's stay ahead of time. In other words they won't extend the Orlando vacation time to go to Universal, so if they do go to Universal then that takes a day, or two, out of the WDW park time.
If enough people do that then the average crowds at WDW could be down about 20%. Maybe.

Which is more or less our situation: we have plans to be in WDW for a week in late May. Saw that HP might be opening at Universal, and though about spending at least part of a day checking it out. HOWEVER, the cost for 4 of us to do so would be almost $500 just for tickets and transportation!

The daily graduated ticket prices definitely work for the primary park you are visiting and against the secondary park. Seems to me that at that price Universal isn't going to see a whole bunch of single day refugees from Disney, which is probably a shame.

While many will probably swallow hard and go, many more like ourselves will not, so they forgo not only the entry ticket income but any $ we might have spent there on food and souvenirs. Might actually serve them well if they offered a discount for those people staying at a "competing" park, though I am sure that isn't on their radar. We probably would have gone if we could get away with a $500 for the day, figuring the usual $150-250/day for meals/discretionary, but I am not going spend $750 to do so.

 

[wdwmagic]

They are hinting that it's probably mid April or May.
Link to preview-
http://www.universalorlandoresort.com/harrypotter/

I'm thinking that the average WDW guest plans a week's stay ahead of time. In other words they won't extend the Orlando vacation time to go to Universal, so if they do go to Universal then that takes a day, or two, out of the WDW park time.
If enough people do that then the average crowds at WDW could be down about 20%. Maybe.

Not a chance. The entire Islands of Adventure park opening didn't impact Disney's attendance. A 20% loss from Disney due to HP is out of the question. If anything, HP may increase attendance to Disney. The possibility exists that HP may draw more people to the Orlando area, and out of those people, the vast majority are going to visit Disney at the same time. Very few tourists come to the Orlando area and don't visit a Disney park.

 

[tizzo]

My guess would be that if anything it could actually increase attendance. The reason being that Universal (both parks) is at best 2 days now, and I would guess no more than 3 days when HP opens. I think that most people would extend such a trip to a week rather than take such a short vacation, at least if they're traveling to central FL from outside the region, leaving them with several days to fill. Some may opt for a day or two at Sea World, others may head to the beaches, but some will almost certainly head to WDW for at least one or two days.

On the other hand, I'd have to assume that some WDW regulars might take a day or two which would otherwise be allocated to WDW to instead check out HP at Universal. So it could be a wash, but my prediction would be advantage Disney just on the basis of perceived quality and simple quantity of offerings.

 

[dreamfinder]

I would imagine it would be negligible at best. As PP's have said, yes people may plan a day out of a trip to go see HP (which we are planning on doing later this year) but people who may be planning on making the trip for HP will also probably hit up WDW. No reason to do one and not the other. Remember that Universal has limits on how many guests can be in the park at one time, just like WDW does, so even if they do fill up, it's no more than a fraction of the guests that 4 parks at WDW can absorb.

 

[RiversideBunny]

Mabye it will only affect guests who are real Harry Potter fans.
People who don't know a muggle from a butter beer won't feel the need to see the new HP attractions at Universal.

 

[wolf359]

I'm with Steve on this one. Harry Potter stands a better chance of increasing Disney attendance than decreasing it.

When Potterland opens Universal will probably get more locals coming on the weekends, but who knows how long that will last. Once the newness wears off and word of mouth spreads I'm sure attendance will even out.

But people coming from out of town will almost certainly include time in a Disney theme park even if Harry Potter is the main reason for coming. It's even more likely that most folks will simply add an extra day to their Disney vacation to sneak over to see Harry Potter.