Dreamfinder, I am under the impression that tickets are discounted if you buy in bulk during your stay. Don't quote me but I think with a 7 day stay the tickets work out to close to half of what it would cost at the gate per day. I can't get this deal if I'm off property correct? As for rooms, with a party of 5 I would need to stay in a one bedroom +. Resorts will not allow you to rent a single room unless it is at Caribbean or Port Orleans as they are larger. I think it is a fire safety issue. As for rack rates comparing apples to apples you really can't rooms have been inflated over the last 5-10 years for the reason of making DVC look more attractive. Same holds true for dining and the DDP. I would be curious to know at the deluxe resorts what the rack rate vs DVC usage is. I just can't see too many people forking $500-$900 a night for a room alone. I'm enjoying the debate and appreciate the insight here. I would really like DVC to work but I'm leaning away from it at this point. I think your last point might be the key, once you get to break even it is vastly a different story. It just seems like a long stretch to get there!
Tickets are completely separate from anything else. Yes, there the cost per day goes down significantly as you buy go from a 1 day to a 10 day, but doesn't matter if you stay on property, own DVC, or stay at the Hilton down the road, you can buy tickets from WDW for the same price. And you can save even more from buying from a 3rd party reseller like Undercover Tourist (who really doesn't care where you stay).
Some of the DVC studios do handle 5 people. The Poly for instance (what I priced out) does allow 5, the 5th sleeps on a pull down trundle type bed under the TV. And as I think I said in one of your other posts, you will shortly be kicked out of a CBR room anyways, if for nothing other than a space issue as I can't see that 5th bed being comfortable for most people past 10 or so. So you would need to start looking at AoA/All Star suite or FW cabin pricing shortly anyway.
I agree that DVC rack rates are heavily inflated to make DVC ownership seem more appealing, but don't think that the room rates for the other resorts have been inflated for DVC. For instance Port Orleans standard view room cost $99 for NYE in 1991 (Going off a Chicago Tribune article saying prices were $79-99), $184 for NYE in 2005, cost $299 for NYE in 2016. DVC went from $51 in 1991, to $78 in 2005, to $171 in 2016. So resort went up 300%, while DVC went up 335% per (per point, point costs at the resort haven't changed)
As for resort rack vs DVC, I think
@ParentsOf4 may have run some numbers about stuff like this at one point, but WDW still routinely is like 80% occupied. So while DVC is definitely taking some of the people who normally stay at moderate but might make the jump to deluxe, as of yet they aren't hurting too badly.
If you don't need any of the benefits from buying direct, and can pay cash for resale, you can breakeven in 7-10 years usually. But you need to be committed to Disney. But your gut seems to be saying no, no, no, and some times the gut is right.