why doubling dumbo won't necessarily mean shorter lines

[David S.]

I'll really miss the current placement as far as riding during firework shows though, with the more or less symetrical placement right behind the castle. Way off to the side in what is now Toontown, the "riding Dumbo during the fireworks" experience just won't be the same.

 

[stargrl33]

Q: Currently, does everyone that wants to ride Dumbo on any given day queue up for the attraction?
A: I assume that the answer is no, I have to believe that some people are discouraged by the lines. While queuing for the attraction is often dictated by children, you have to assume that the occasional adult wields some power over their children.[/QUOTE]


This line cracks me up:ROFLOL:

Anyway, I was under the impression that people waiting in line for Dumbo were to be given those light-up buzzer things that you get when you are waiting for dinner reservations. That allows the ride line to be "queue-less." Parents and kids will be able to walk around and play games within the circus tent area, meaning that an hour long wait will probably go by relatively quickly.

Of course, I could have just invented that fact.

 

[DisneyParksFan1]

I'll really miss the current placement as far as riding during firework shows though, with the more or less symetrical placement right behind the castle. Way off to the side in what is now Toontown, the "riding Dumbo during the fireworks" experience just won't be the same.

I'm definitely going to miss that great experience!

 

[UberPlannerMom]

And if you believe all of the "insider" info that gets thrown around on here this is all moot anyway...

 

[RSoxNo1]

Ok, so here's what I've concluded. Get out your abacuses everyone there is some math coming up.

I have estimated the following:
32 guests per Cycle
3 minutes 15 seconds per cycle
Operating Hours for tomorrow 9 AM - 11 PM
Fastpass distribution opens at 9 AM for distribution 9:40-10:40
Fastpass is distributed at 6% of the hourly capacity every 5 minutes

To clarify a Cycle is the length of time it takes a new group of people to experience the ride, unload, etc

My assumptions result in the following
590.77 guests per hour pre-refurb
1181.54 guests per hour post-refurb (this assumes ride length does not change post refurb)

According to Touringplans.com Dumbo should see the following wait times throughout the 14 hour day (time in minutes):
9:00 AM 16
10:00 AM 21
11:00 AM 25
12:00 PM 25
1:00 PM 25
2:00 PM 29
3:00 PM 29
4:00 PM 29
5:00 PM 29
6:00 PM 25
7:00 PM 25
8:00 PM 25
9:00 PM 21
10:00 PM 21
11:00 PM 16
Between 9 AM and 11 PM with no downtime, the ride can expect to accommodate 8270.77 people and have a peak wait time of 29 minutes.

If the same crowd level was at the park but the Dueling Dumbos was already built, it would accommodate 16,541.54 people over the course of the day.

The breakdown of those 16,541.54 people would be 11413.66 Fastpass, 5127.88 Standby. This assumes every Fastpass is used, which we know isn't true, but for the purposes of this explanation will be true. Here is the breakdown of Fastpass distribution percentage under the new ride based on the percentage of hourly capacity distributed via Fastpass:

7%: 41.35 Fastpasses distributed every 5 minutes, 13,315.94 Fastpasses distributed daily, 3225.60 Standby guests accommodated daily
6%: 35.44 Fastpasses distributed every 5 minutes, 11,413.66 Fastpasses distributed daily, 5127.88 Standby guests accommodated daily
5%: 29.54 Fastpasses distributed every 5 minutes, 9,511.38 Fastpasses distributed daily, 7030.15 Standby guests accommodated daily
4%: 23.63 Fastpasses distributed every 5 minutes, 7,609.11 Fastpasses distributed daily, 8932.43 Standby guests accommodated daily

To conclude this, assuming the same number of people queued up for the standby line before and after doubling the capacity, then the Standby wait time would definitely increase. However, it's relatively safe to assume that the demand for Standby will decrease with the introduction of Fastpass to the attraction. After doubling the ride capacity, Fastpass will be able to accommodate more people than the current Standby. The wait times for the attraction should decrease, unless the demand for the attraction is far greater than what is currently being represented by the wait times.

 

[CaptainWinter]

7%: 41.35 Fastpasses distributed every 5 minutes, 13,315.94 Fastpasses distributed daily, 3225.60 Standby guests accommodated daily
6%: 35.44 Fastpasses distributed every 5 minutes, 11,413.66 Fastpasses distributed daily, 5127.88 Standby guests accommodated daily
5%: 29.54 Fastpasses distributed every 5 minutes, 9,511.38 Fastpasses distributed daily, 7030.15 Standby guests accommodated daily
4%: 23.63 Fastpasses distributed every 5 minutes, 7,609.11 Fastpasses distributed daily, 8932.43 Standby guests accommodated daily

Wait a minute...are you Theo Epstein?

Seriously, that's awesome.

(I have a PhilharMagic "bonus" pass from Winnie the Pooh -- let me know if you want it.)

 

[RSoxNo1]

Wait a minute...are you Theo Epstein?

Seriously, that's awesome.

(I have a PhilharMagic "bonus" pass from Winnie the Pooh -- let me know if you want it.)

I actually spent a significant amount of time trying to determine what the actual waits would be, but it would be based on several extremely arbitrary assumptions.

I would say that hour long standby waits will probably be a thing of the past except on the busiest of days.

As for the Fastpass, I'm all set, thanks. I have several of the Bonus Fastpasses, it's the ones on the PhilharMagic paper that are harder to acquire.

 

[peter11435]

There is also the staffing factor. I have been to this ride when one person was loading, unloading and running the controls. The turn over from one group to the other was very slow. Other times there is two people or more working the ride and the trun over time is very fast; allowing more people per hour to ride the ride. I think this happens on a lot of rides accounting for long lines even with light crowds.

Dumbo in it's current state cannot be operated by less than 2 cm's. The ride has two consoles on oposite sides of the ring. Both consoles must be enabled for the ride to operate.