When will the intervention come?

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Peltz would have made things much worse.

That’s just a theory. We’ll never know for sure

Also realize Bob spent tens of millions of
Shareholder money to spin that narrative.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I mean...it sort of already did happen?

We saw it play out in real time this year. While it's true Peltz never had even a slim chance of earning a seat on the board, Iger and co. fought hard to make sure that it didn't happen. And along the way, we've seen more commitment to investment and change than we have in years.

We've just not gotten to see it yet. All we're seeing right now are the end results of decisions made years ago, hell some over a decade ago at this point. It's going to be a little while before we see the fruits of the changes that have been made this year. Change is most certainly on it's way, and anyone paying enough attention to how much Iger's approach to communicating what's on the horizon as of late can sense that.

In the meantime though, I don't know that Disney's overall situation is as dire as it's made out to be. It's nowhere even close to the worst it's ever been. The Disney fandom tends to get very doomerist with things. Not for no reason, there are lots of cracks in the foundation, but they're also not cracks that the majority of people Disney serves are going to think too much about. Disney is still the dream vacation, they're still holding the majority of the top 10 most visited theme parks in the world, and that isn't going to suddenly change here.

The truth of the matter is that the majority of guests aren't really unsatisfied with the product the parks provides. First timers are going and having the absolute time of their lives even still. People who've been going forever of course have noticed the changes, but really those of us that have been going their whole lives make up a small subset of the people who visit (at leaat at WDW).

For now, we just have to wait and see what things look like when these new changes and pivots we've seen a commitment to this year come to fruition. What those will turn out like we don't know. But make no mistake...the intervention's already come and passed. We're beginning the shift now.

Bobs ego took a hit and we’ve seen more platitudes than normal…there is no indication at this time
That any meaningful change is gonna occur

 

[Chef Mickey]

I mean...it sort of already did happen?

We saw it play out in real time this year. While it's true Peltz never had even a slim chance of earning a seat on the board, Iger and co. fought hard to make sure that it didn't happen. And along the way, we've seen more commitment to investment and change than we have in years.

We've just not gotten to see it yet. All we're seeing right now are the end results of decisions made years ago, hell some over a decade ago at this point. It's going to be a little while before we see the fruits of the changes that have been made this year. Change is most certainly on it's way, and anyone paying enough attention to how much Iger's approach to communicating what's on the horizon as of late can sense that.

In the meantime though, I don't know that Disney's overall situation is as dire as it's made out to be. It's nowhere even close to the worst it's ever been. The Disney fandom tends to get very doomerist with things. Not for no reason, there are lots of cracks in the foundation, but they're also not cracks that the majority of people Disney serves are going to think too much about. Disney is still the dream vacation, they're still holding the majority of the top 10 most visited theme parks in the world, and that isn't going to suddenly change here.

The truth of the matter is that the majority of guests aren't really unsatisfied with the product the parks provides. First timers are going and having the absolute time of their lives even still. People who've been going forever of course have noticed the changes, but really those of us that have been going their whole lives make up a small subset of the people who visit (at leaat at WDW).

For now, we just have to wait and see what things look like when these new changes and pivots we've seen a commitment to this year come to fruition. What those will turn out like we don't know. But make no mistake...the intervention's already come and passed. We're beginning the shift now.

You’re delusional if you think the current management can pull Disney out of this. Just look at their track record. Thankfully, Iger is old and basically has to leave because of that. Other than that, there is no hope for the board to select a competent successor unless by dumb luck. The entire board needs to go and it’s a travesty Peltz could not prevail - not because Peltz is great, but because he was at least touting the right message: “This ain’t working. Let’s change it.”

This current situation is a Harvard business case of how to squander a dominant leadership position.

Sure, Disney still cobbles together some earnings, somewhat runs the parks and has a place in the market, but it’s just so poorly managed with much of it self-inflicted. It could and should be so much more.

 

[Mr. Sullivan]

You’re delusional if you think the current management can pull Disney out of this. Just look at their track record. Thankfully, Iger is old and basically has to leave because of that. Other than that, there is no hope for the board to select a competent successor unless by dumb luck. The entire board needs to go and it’s a travesty Peltz could not prevail - not because Peltz is great, but because he was at least touting the right message: “This ain’t working. Let’s change it.”

This current situation is a Harvard business case of how to squander a dominant leadership position.

Sure, Disney still cobbles together some earnings, somewhat runs the parks and has a place in the market, but it’s just so poorly managed with much of it self-inflicted. It could and should be so much more.

I’m delusional but you think Peltz should’ve had a spot on the board even with his own destructive track record. Makes sense.

I don’t know why we’re pretending Disney is in dire straights because of one down year at the box office. The stock is consistently rising, parks are busy, cruises booked, and they’re making money hand over fist. What is to be “pulled out of” that isn’t already being addressed?

 

[davis_unoxx]

The fact of the matter is, Disney relies on the parks for 70% of their profits from the park division now vs 25% a decade ago.

Hotel occupancy is extremely low for the foreseeable future at Disney World, their cash cow.

The parks are even less busy vs last summer so far, according to on the ground reports and booking data.

Their stock is currently at $104, down almost 50% from its peak while the stock market is at all time highs.

If Disney relies majority on Disney World for profits, and we keep seeing bookings slip. It’s not crazy to say that this isn’t good for Disney.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Hello all!

We’ve seen Disney has fallen onto very tough times creatively as a company, mainly with their recent movie debuts and in the parks as of late.

With the movie Wish being dragged by many for sounding like AI wrote the soundtrack, to Tiana’s being described as a direct to video sequel as a ride, when will Disney change course?

We’ve seen that Disney has been affected by this financially at the box office, and me personally as a former cast member through this year know that their hotels are not filling up like they used to with bookings, and the economy is still strong… Florida keeps breaking tourism records, while Disney’s occupancy at hotels keeps going down.

For example New Year’s Day this year at Animal Kingdom Lodge, the occupancy of the hotel was 70% not including the blocked off rooms to make occupancy look higher than it really is. When I was a cast member you could feel how the crowds are lesser due to less hiring as of late, and part timers getting next to no hours each week…

I truly love Disney, and I liked working for them but now’s a time for change, I personally believe they are in a bigger mess then even 20 years ago with that Save Disney Campaign to oust Eisner, which was a big deal at the time.

I’ve never seen public reception of Disney so bad, and it’s mainstream now people make fun of Disney and the people that visit their parks.

We saw Peltz try to gain a seat on the board, and since the Disney that he won’t be elected Disney’s stock has fallen back down around -20%


Also Disney is a very different situation with there parks than say 10 years ago, instead of a quarter of their profits coming from the parks, it’s over 70% now. So now that we’ve reached a tipping point in my opinion with room occupancy and public perception of Disney, it’ll be very interesting what happens to them financially especially if our economy slows down substantially.


No company is too big to fail, greed and thinking you can do whatever is always the downfall of big companies.


What’s next? Will Disney keep making mid projects like Tiana that are bashed for playing it so safe and being a dull ride?

Thank you all, and I look forward to the discussions.

Just my opinion -

As for Disney's movie business, the company is releasing content they want to release. It seems to me, they don't care about the box office as a measure of success, and they think they will break even or make some money in the very long run from merch.

As for their theme park business. It seems to me they are shifting their focus away from WDW and more toward the international parks and DLR.

As for the EPCOT renovation, in my opinion, that was just poorly planned and poorly executed and the mistakes continue as we see in the Morocco pavilion, and I expect continued mistakes to come.

One more thing as it relates to WDW, while I know they talk about changes in AK and expansion in MK, Disney is probably in the wait and see approach to see how EPIC does before spending money in WDW.

 

[DisneyHead123]

I honestly think this is just the usual harmless pendulum swinging and nothing major. Disney is not about to go the way of the Poconos or anything.

When they announced Genie+, my prediction was that this would be one of the few things that would actually impact Disney attendance. At that time the sentiment was still "No way, it'll never happen, for every family that leaves Disney 2 will take their place." But I said that Genie+ was different, because it would be perceived as tacky, and Disney goers don't want tacky. $1,000 a night for two queen beds at the Polynesian? No problem for many Disney fans. A $25 "pay to play" pass reminiscent of a carnival or arcade? Suddenly people were up in arms.

There has also been cultural stuff going on and I didn't see that coming - but I think it ties together. If people are angry about the way the parks are being run, they're less apt to give Disney the benefit of the doubt and more likely to jump on something that gives them a chance to scorn.

The thing I went back and forth on was whether the markets would / could work in the case of Disney, because they are somewhat monopoly-esque, and free markets don't work on monopolies. But I'm happy to say I think the free market is working in this case. People are not happy. They're voting with their dollars. Disney, in slow, bureaucratic, 'takes a long time to turn a giant ship around' fashion, is kinda starting to notice. Epic Universe if building what might be meaningful competition right down the road. To my mind, all signs point to the system working as it should.

 

[Trauma]

I know this post will get me 50 laugh emojis and I get how insane it sounds so I don’t mind.

IF we don’t have a major shakeup in the way Disney operates -

Keyword - IF

Universal Studio's will be on equal footing with Disney in the swamps in the next 10 years, taking a huge chunk of market share.

 

[davis_unoxx]

I know this post will get me 50 laugh emojis and I get how insane it sounds so I don’t mind.

IF we don’t have a major shakeup in the way Disney operates -

Keyword - IF

Universal Studio's will be on equal footing with Disney in the swamps taking a huge chunk of market share.

Very true!

Look at their bookings, they keep going down. And we haven't had a recession yet, Florida keeps seeing record tourism numbers while Disney's market share keeps dropping.

With the opening of TBA not being that great... And not other Disney rides under construction, while EU is sprinting to the finish line. It's becoming evry interesting!

Also with social media, the bad reception of TBA is spreading fast. Everyone knows Disney's public reception is trending more negatively the last few years.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

I can't express how disappointing it's been to be a Disney fan the last 10 years. Seeing the movies continuously get worse- but you can ignore that.

What they're doing to the parks is brand assassination. Getting rid of many things that defined the Disney Parks brand- the Disney look, the high standards of service and showmanship, good maintenance, decent food. Superficial and meaningless changes are touted as 'important'- like getting rid of the Ladies and Gentleman, Boys and Girls show introduction.



Their insistence on up charging for everything now- dining packages for show viewing, Genie+, etc. shows a complete lack of respect for the customer. It feels slimy and isn't at all hospitable.

A family friend is an exec for Universal Studios Hollywood - he said Universal's internal motto right now is 'Don't do what Disney's doing.' And as a whole Universal is hitting it out of the park- I firmly believe that if things don't change Universal will overtake Disney as the preferred resort in the next decade or two.

Well said. Universal is already the preferred park for our family. I love the freedom to roam around and ride what you want to when you want to. The TM's I've met are all happy to be there. The whole atmosphere is inviting with wonderful shows and attractions. Universal IS doing it right. This comes from a long time disney fanatic who helped and influenced alot of people to go to Disney. Now I do the same for Universal.

 

[krueger8478]

Wow, weird to be back! I used to come on here all the time, but I lost that account years ago. Anyway, I came here because I had some thoughts and this thread kind of fit nicely with those.
I maintain the park is one of the best theme parks you can visit. That said, it's incredibly expensive. Back in January I joined my husband on a work trip to Orlando. I decided not to plan out our days, even though I usually hate doing that, and just go with the flow (I found out I still hate not planning, even for just a two day trip, but I digress). I love theme parks, so we were going to go to Disney. But when we added up the cost of tickets and food, it was going to be $400 for a single day and no guarantee we could do much. Seaworld, on the other hand? Completely free tickets we were able to get last minute (Seaworld gives one day of free admission to military families), all we needed was some money for snacking throughout the day.
But hey, we all know the real savings come when you go for a few days. I would love to go back and stay in the Disney bubble again, so I decided to look up how much a hotel stay and tickets would be. I started with hotels and immediately gave up that idea. I'm sorry, the hotels are pretty, they're convenient, but to me $200-300 is absurdly overpriced for a motel with ok transportation service. And the deluxe hotels- you can't convince me those are worth $600-$1000 a night. They just aren't. You can stay in a nice resort off-site with shuttle service for the same price as Disney's cheapest rooms. I was, and still am, a believer that their hotels do have a special feel, but I can't see anyone but the most die-hard park fanatic finding the experience worth it right now.
I actually came here because I was trying to find out how well Disney rooms are selling, because I genuinely have a hard time believing they're getting enough people to stay on-property at these prices.

 

[krueger8478]

The truth of the matter is that the majority of guests aren't really unsatisfied with the product the parks provides. First timers are going and having the absolute time of their lives even still. People who've been going forever of course have noticed the changes, but really those of us that have been going their whole lives make up a small subset of the people who visit (at leaat at WDW).

I think this is a tricky one to figure out. I'm not up to date on attendance at the parks, so if they're staying the same or going up it's definitely hard to make the case perception of WDW as the ultimate family vacation is shifting. On the other hand, I rarely see or hear anyone have positive things to say about WDW vacations. Most of the feedback I see online is frustration over high costs and long waits. I would brush that off as just cranky people online being cranky people online, but even people I've talked to in person don't usually walk away loving the experience.

 

[DisneyHead123]

I know this post will get me 50 laugh emojis and I get how insane it sounds so I don’t mind.

IF we don’t have a major shakeup in the way Disney operates -

Keyword - IF

Universal Studio's will be on equal footing with Disney in the swamps in the next 10 years, taking a huge chunk of market share.

I actually agree Universal may get themselves on somewhat equal footing in the parks business. I don’t know about market share though. So far every increase in capacity at Disney has been met with an even greater increase in demand. I think Universal will be a test in how far that concept extends.

 

[Disone]

We’ve seen that Disney has been affected by this financially at the box office, and me personally as a former cast member through this year know that their hotels are not filling up like they used to with bookings, and the economy is still strong… Florida keeps breaking tourism records, while Disney’s occupancy at hotels keeps going down

I don't think we're as close to intervention yet. I don't think room nights are as low as people online have been staying.
Where is the free dining plan?
Where is the buy three get four nights free deal?

Sure there are 4 day tickets for $99 per day but this is nothing like this deep deep discounts Disney has previously done when their occupancy was in the weeds.

At over 9.2 million room nights, and an annual occupancy rate of over 90% , they've recently shared that 2023 was a record year for occupancy at Walt Disney World own facilities. One could argue they are right, one could argue they are wrong or they are manipulating numbers.... but they feel they're doing fine and so far the lack of heavy discounting indicates no panic about 2024.

The first step to an intervention in general is admitting there's a problem, and while I'm not saying I think there is no problem, because there is, I don't think Walt Disney World is admitting or seeing there is a problem

 

[Disstevefan1]

So far every increase in capacity at Disney has been met with an even greater increase in demand.

I don't think so. Unless I am mistaken, bookings are down at the resorts.

 

[davis_unoxx]

I don't think so. Unless I am mistaken, bookings are down at the resorts.

You are correct, they are down massively.

 

[Disstevefan1]

You are correct, they are down massively.

That sounds like an intervention to me Please close this thread

 

[IanDLBZF]

Do people not realize that Nelson Peltz would make matters worse? I would not be surprised to see if Disney collapses under chapter 11 bankruptcy.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Do people not realize that Nelson Peltz would make matters worse? I would not be surprised to see if Disney collapses under chapter 11 bankruptcy.

Nelson Peltz is gone. Nelson Peltz has nothing to do with what's happening. This is all Iger's fault.

 

[Chef Mickey]

I’m delusional but you think Peltz should’ve had a spot on the board even with his own destructive track record. Makes sense.

I don’t know why we’re pretending Disney is in dire straights because of one down year at the box office. The stock is consistently rising, parks are busy, cruises booked, and they’re making money hand over fist. What is to be “pulled out of” that isn’t already being addressed?

I would literally put 12 graduates picked at random over the current board of directors, so yeah, I was OK with the change because I've seen enough of this group. Whatever Peltz did previously and if you're a fan or not is irrelevant. Just because you don't like a person or his past dealings doesn't mean he's wrong in this case. Much of what he's said is not only accurate, but proven by the performance of the company which I'll outline below.

Before I do, what stock are you watching that is "constantly rising?" Do you actually own shares? I would guess not or you'd know that's not true.

They aren't making money hand over fist either, which is why the stock is down over 25% in the last 5 years with the S&P500 up over 83% over the same time period. That's not good, FYI and is grounds for total management change.

Even going out 10 years, Disney is up a measly 29% with the broader market up over 183%. This level of under performance for a quality company like Disney is unconscionable. These people are incompetent.
. Something is wrong the last 10 years and it's not just Covid. Spoiler alert, it's the management. It's the CEO. It's the board. It's the stupid decisions. It's the poor fiscal policy. It's politics. It's execution.

Net Income - Notice the trend?

2018: $13B
2019: $10.9B
2020: -$2.4B
2021: $2.5B
2022: $3.5B
2023: $3.4B

So it's no wonder the stock has cratered. They forgot how to run their business and have consistently made poor spending, management, and strategic decisions.

The bottom line is Disney is a publicly traded company. The CEO's #1 and frankly only job is to increase shareholder value. They haven't done it and they've also managed to erode the brand and damage the company that took 100 years to build. Forget the fandom, politics, and strategy. The actual performance of DIS over the last 10 years has been atrocious and unacceptable for a company that is in a leadership position. Peltz was right and investors and customers deserve better.