SpectroBro
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Meetings with the various Unions were set up today and we’ll know more by next week
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What's Still On and What's Now Off
- Thread starter WDW Pro
- Start date
Meetings with the various Unions were set up today and we’ll know more by next week
DDLand
Well-Known Member
That’s the speediest route to (mental) depression and isolation. Humans need human interaction. If you’re a religious person, gods have always commanded communities to work together (indeed, religion has often been used for that very purpose). If you have a secular worldview, then millions of years of evolution have “designed” us into social creatures. We are literally not built to sit in small boxes by ourselves all day consuming internet content. This is like a fish a being asked to live without water, or a bear to live without air. Whether directed by God or by natural selection, we are social creatures that need social contact.
Disease has always existed. If one takes the evolutionary view, humans have found the benefits of socializing far outweigh the risks of disease a close proximity creates. Taking aggressive health measures may be the right move in the short term, but in the longterm the costs of isolation would become catastrophically destructive. If the lesson that people take from this experience is to be more isolated, that will make the world a worse place.
Josh Hendy
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't go that far ... yesterday we walked the dog around our suburban street and chatted with a few of our neighbors from 20 feet or so away who were walking their dogs. All in all a typical pre-Corona day for us.
My kids in their 20s are spending 1 or 2 hours a day face timing people online.
Most of the stress I'm seeing in the family is about adjusting to working online (a couple of them are elementary teachers).
DDLand
Well-Known Member
While I’m the first one to extol the virtues of technology, those are low fidelity replacements. We as theme park fans know that nothing beats entertainment that blends visual, taste, movement, smell, sounds, and touch. That doesn’t mean movies suck, but that there is something fantastic (some might even say magical) about walking into a story told through physical spaces.
The same is true of person to person contact. When we interact, we involve multiple senses. Why has shaking hands remained throughout history? Because being able to feel someone and connect with them physically is important. We are finding out that smell plays a crucial role in human interaction on the subconscious level. Occupying the same physical space allows us to get more detail and give more detail. The suburbs were built when more community organizations were common. Now people are spending more and more time on work and school where relationships are largely transactional or stressful.
There has been an epidemic of mental health problems. Humans used to be closer to nature or other humans (including extended family). The suburbs and even cities are at risk of cutting off people from both. While suburbs don’t necessarily have to be this way, they are conducive for isolation. When even things like going to a theme park or going to a physical store cease to be acceptable, we’re making it more and more difficult to be around other humans.
Today, we abhor putting animals in cages without companions. In a sad twist of fate, we may accidentally be doing it to ourselves. We need to be very very careful about the precedents we set.
This is not to say quarantining or social isolation is bad, but it cannot be the new normal. That would have disastrous consequences...
DDLand
Well-Known Member
When we think about Walt Disney World reopening, it takes place within a broader context of reopening the entire chain. While Shanghai Disneyland may come online earlier, that’s still 9 Disney parks that will be reopening within a few months of each other. As @WDW Pro called attention to, that is going to be expensive. Will there be soft openings and weeks of training? Recruiting drives that have to take place? A host of refurbishments and tests to determine if everything is still nominal? The longer this goes on, the more likely the reopening process costs hundreds of millions per resort. That doesn’t even take into account the first months of operations will probably be breakeven at best. Even with a best-case scenario, I would expect it to take a few months before tourist demand reaches pre crisis levels. That’s best case scenario.
So Disney will have to be strategic with reopening its parks and resorts. It’s going to be incisive and conservative. The reopening in a rolling fashion sounds exactly right. This offers two benefits. Obviously, it spreads costs out into more manageable chunks to avoid oppressively high single payments. It also is a way to increase maintain margins. Two parks filled all the way is much better than 4 parks filled halfway. Of course, that does run at odds with the social distancing. Something that may delay park openings further.
I’d expect the reopening priorities for parks to be roughly in this order:
1. Magic Kingdom. The Magic Kingdom is the flagship theme park of the flagship resort. It’s priority #1
2. Disney’s Animal Kingdom. This may be a little surprising, but Animal Kingdom’s fortunes have never been brighter. It really is a special and increasingly popular park. More importantly, many of its attractions costs are fixed. You guessed it, the animals and environments have to be maintained no matter what. DAK cast members meet the definition of essential. While money is flowing to all the theme parks to keep them in working condition, Disney’s Animal Kingdom has to have the largest fixed costs. If you have a choice between several parks, DAK seems like a logical choice. Why pay for entertainment that nobody will see?
3. Disney’s Hollywood Studios. This is their relaunch park with the “most ambitious attraction.” While I would be tempted to put it ahead of DAK, its fixed costs have to be lower.
4. Poor Epcot. The thesis of Walt Disney World reduced to an incoherent maze of construction walls. Keeping the massive park closed seems like the way to go. While the loss of Disney’s Frozen attraction is unfortunate, it seems to be an acceptable tradeoff. This park is struggling. Others have pointed out that no Epcot means no Epcot monorail. Bonus!
The longer this goes on, the more confident I feel that Disney reopens 1-3 parks instead of all 4. Disneyland may actually provide a model for them in the short term. Focus on locals and annual pass holders filling up fewer theme parks. People may remain hesitant to travel long distances for the foreseeable future. I’m curious about potential defaults and changes in pricing at Disney Vacation Club. That will be relatively small, but could be interesting nonetheless.
I still remain skeptical of Universal’s commitment to its theme park projects. Comcast’s CEO initially was pretty confident going into Corona, but the firm has recently issued bonds. It will be able to service its debt because of its strong broadband business, but I expect things to be tight for a while. Comcast could definitely see an acceleration of cord cutting and cancelling landline. While smaller than broadband, it would still hurt. That doesn’t even take into account NBCUniversal’s softness. Epic Universe probably wont make it out of this… We’ll see how Comcast performs and how quickly the economy rebounds.
Things are really dire right now for everyone. It stinks.
So Disney will have to be strategic with reopening its parks and resorts. It’s going to be incisive and conservative. The reopening in a rolling fashion sounds exactly right. This offers two benefits. Obviously, it spreads costs out into more manageable chunks to avoid oppressively high single payments. It also is a way to increase maintain margins. Two parks filled all the way is much better than 4 parks filled halfway. Of course, that does run at odds with the social distancing. Something that may delay park openings further.
I’d expect the reopening priorities for parks to be roughly in this order:
1. Magic Kingdom. The Magic Kingdom is the flagship theme park of the flagship resort. It’s priority #1
2. Disney’s Animal Kingdom. This may be a little surprising, but Animal Kingdom’s fortunes have never been brighter. It really is a special and increasingly popular park. More importantly, many of its attractions costs are fixed. You guessed it, the animals and environments have to be maintained no matter what. DAK cast members meet the definition of essential. While money is flowing to all the theme parks to keep them in working condition, Disney’s Animal Kingdom has to have the largest fixed costs. If you have a choice between several parks, DAK seems like a logical choice. Why pay for entertainment that nobody will see?
3. Disney’s Hollywood Studios. This is their relaunch park with the “most ambitious attraction.” While I would be tempted to put it ahead of DAK, its fixed costs have to be lower.
4. Poor Epcot. The thesis of Walt Disney World reduced to an incoherent maze of construction walls. Keeping the massive park closed seems like the way to go. While the loss of Disney’s Frozen attraction is unfortunate, it seems to be an acceptable tradeoff. This park is struggling. Others have pointed out that no Epcot means no Epcot monorail. Bonus!
The longer this goes on, the more confident I feel that Disney reopens 1-3 parks instead of all 4. Disneyland may actually provide a model for them in the short term. Focus on locals and annual pass holders filling up fewer theme parks. People may remain hesitant to travel long distances for the foreseeable future. I’m curious about potential defaults and changes in pricing at Disney Vacation Club. That will be relatively small, but could be interesting nonetheless.
I still remain skeptical of Universal’s commitment to its theme park projects. Comcast’s CEO initially was pretty confident going into Corona, but the firm has recently issued bonds. It will be able to service its debt because of its strong broadband business, but I expect things to be tight for a while. Comcast could definitely see an acceleration of cord cutting and cancelling landline. While smaller than broadband, it would still hurt. That doesn’t even take into account NBCUniversal’s softness. Epic Universe probably wont make it out of this… We’ll see how Comcast performs and how quickly the economy rebounds.
Things are really dire right now for everyone. It stinks.
Surferboy567
Well-Known Member
My question is WHEN does anyone realistically expect a reopening. We know they are closed throughout April that much is a given. I think the earliest possible point they could reopen is the last week of May...but that’s too optimistic I think. Possibly looking at a late June/ July Opening? Even when it’s “safe” is Disney going to try and open? All it takes is ONE little case and it brings the whole thing crashing down.
Do they wait?
disney4life2008
Well-Known Member
Well Disney made a dumb decision to start resort reservations for June 1. Ambitious. Not to say that they could not but that literally gives them the month of May to retrain, possibly hire, and get get the resort prepared. I also read that when parks shut down the rides have to be inspected?
Surferboy567
Well-Known Member
This adds another can of worms. The DCP page saying April will go on as planned has recently been removed. They will probably push everything back or cancel it all together.
I don’t think it’s possible the parks open in May...too much liability.
disney4life2008
Well-Known Member
I think just like the initial 2 week closure, Disney didn't predict how bad everything would be. They also tried to safe face to all their employees and guests. But Disney is only bandanding the problem. They already have people planning for June 1 check in.
Surferboy567
Well-Known Member
I also believe the parks won’t reopen on June 1...not the current way this is going.
Like you said before they should stop accepting reservations for a reasonable amount of time instead of these small intervals.
DVCakaCarlF
Well-Known Member
They have to start accepting reservations and deposits at some point...they can’t open with 10-20% occupancy. It needs to be 50-65% or better for it to make sense to even staff the resorts, turn on the lights, etc.
DVCakaCarlF
Well-Known Member
I’ve spoke to a few hotel owners, and they all agreed that they expect to “soft” open in June and go wide open on July. The financial improvement won’t occur until August.
Surferboy567
Well-Known Member
That is starting to sound optimistic.
What do you need recruiting drives for? The cast is being furloughed, not terminated. The labor market is such right now that very few will be able to find more work and most will be quite happy to report to work whenever that is. The current SOP for most safety-critical areas (attractions, transportation) is that CMs have to pull one shift every six months to remain "properly trained" for that role. If they reopen within six months, there should be minimal need for new training.
As mentioned, there is a skeleton crew of hourly cast (maintenance and very limited operations) who are remaining to cycle attractions as needed and to ensure the facilities don't fall into ill repair.
As far as Epcot, as far as I know they laid off the international CPs, but the Cultural Representatives, who make up most of the World Showcase cast are still around. They may have also laid these off after the fact, but it was not included in their initial announcement. Also they are on year-long contracts.
They need about seven days, at most, to get everything into working order. This includes maintenance and training, as some cast members may be transferred to make up for the lack of CPs in certain areas, until the new programmers are on board.
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TrainsOfDisney
Well-Known Member
I get a bit confused with the various titles but my understanding was the cultural representatives on 1 year combtracts were sent home. The world showcase full time international cast memebers had the option to stay.
I’m not sure who is being furloughed but it would take more than 7 days for managers and coordinators to schedule, order supplies, and otherwise plan and prepare. It would be in the 2-4 weeks range my guess. But that’s just a guess.
FigmentsFangirl
Well-Known Member
So has the list been updated, whats been abanonded as a upcoming project, whats delayed, whats outright not going to happen ? Do we have any updates on this list ?
They sent home the international CPs, who work throughout the resort (not just at Epcot), including international Guest Relations CPs. They did not send home the cultural representatives who are on one year contracts, these are the cast members that make up most of the WS cast.
It would take 7 days. The schedulers can easily schedule an area for a week within a couple hours. It's all done via computer now and takes little time, especially when you figure few will have time off requested, etc. The bigger issue would be sourcing food and perishable supplies if many of the vendors remain shut, but again a week should be enough time to get what they need.
TJJohn12
Well-Known Member
We don’t know any of these details - in fact, until the final impacts of this closure are known, I’d wager even Disney doesn’t know. I saw on that other site that permits were filed for GotG. That datapoint is a far cry from the rumor in this thread that it was to be mothballed.
We might know more when this first peak of the virus is over - which frankly will likely be around July or August. This is a long ordeal we’re in for. We don’t know ANY of the impacts yet, and won’t anytime soon.
Agreed. No way it takes only "7 days" to get done to open. 2-4 weeks seems vastly more realistic.