What Happens to WDW / Disney Parks during a massive correction / recession?

[maemae74]

Yes. There was a lot of stopping and sitting for water breaks on that first trip to catch my breath

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Same! We did Universal at the same time and I appreciated that they allowed you to walk and drink at the same time or take quicks sip while in line.

 

[Lilofan]

Well that is a bright side and will definitely take advantage of it.

If you got a fool proof non lay off employment, go for it. Mickey will take everyone’s money.

 

[maemae74]

If you got a fool proof non lay off employment, go for it. Mickey will take everyone’s money.

Well for my husband who makes triple what I do yes it is fool proof. However if gas and everyday living expenses sky rocket than modifications to length of stay and all the extras may have to be considered.

 

[Mr Mindcrime]

Without the government's "help" we should actually hit the bottom and bounce back up. Historically that is what has happened.

It makes sense, too. You reach a point where you think, "Hey, this (whatever) is so cheap I'd be a fool not to take a chance on it!"

Unfortunately, people get scared and government "helps" and that "help" makes the bottom last a decade or longer. You see this with the Great Depression. You see this with 2008. People believe, wrongly, that "it'd have been so much worse if the government hadn't helped!" when, in reality, their "help" slows the correction and makes the pain last longer.

Government is how we got the $30T in debt. In good times government spends more money than it has because, "look at all of this extra money!" In bad times they spend more than they have because, "We have to spend money to get us past this crisis!" <<< ALL THEY DO IS WASTE MONEY AND THEY ARE THE CRISIS! (before anyone gets their feathers ruffled: Dems and Reps alike)

Government is how it takes us 20 years and $Ts of dollars having the most advanced/capable military in the world which can't win a war. The only war we've won since WWII was Grenada. Just to add: To me that would be the scariest thing imaginable: Knowing that the USA was going to use it's military might against you and, if you paid attention to history, knowing that your side will eventually win, but they'll make the pain last decades (not because of soldiers but because of politics)... Any other country would come in, defeat you, and things are roughly back to normal, or some kind of normal, a year or so later.

You don't want their "help".

It's not Dems against Reps. It's US (citizens) against them (politicians/bureaucrats).

If you were to sit everyone down who's reading this at a table, black, white, gay, hispanic, etc. - You'd find that we all LARGELY agree on most topics. The topics that are left are things we quibble over. We're all on the same page for 95%+ of things. If anything, we have different ideas to solve the same problems but we should and can work together on those. We can differ on those solutions and still be friends.

We're only divided because they (politicians) actively work to divide us.

If I could "like" this entire post a thousand times, I would. You hit the nail on the head!!!

 

[Heppenheimer]

Back to the original topic, wasn't there an expansion to one of the Value Resorts that got cancelled either due to the dot com burst or the Great Recession?

 

[Smiley/OCD]

Back to the original topic, wasn't there an expansion to one of the Value Resorts that got cancelled either due to the dot com burst or the Great Recession?

Yes, it was the other half of Pop Century which became Art of Animation

 

[WishIWasRetired]

Back to the original topic, wasn't there an expansion to one of the Value Resorts that got cancelled either due to the dot com burst or the Great Recession?

I remember seeing a bunch of hotels on palm parkway just left half built for what seemed to be almost 10 years.

 

[spock8113]

None of this is new territory for Disney or the country. I know, I've managed to live through these a few of them......................
Recent Recessions

1973-1975 9.0% unemployment GDP drops -3.2%

1980 7.8% unemployment GDP drops -2.2% Iran Hostages / Oil embargo

1981-1982 10.8% unemployment GDP drops -2.7%

1990-1991 7.8% unemployment GDP drops -1.4% Savings & Loan Crisis

2001 6.3% unemployment GDP drops -0.3% 9/11

2007-2009 10.0% unemployment GDP drops -5.1% (Mortgage crisis)

2020 14.7% unemployment GDP drops -19.2% (COVID shutdown)

2021 yet to determined but unemployment is still relatively low - 3.9% (Ukraine War-Russia oil embargo)



What caused the gas crisis in the 70s?
The oil crisis of the 1970s was brought about by two specific events occurring in the Middle-east, the Yom-Kippur War of 1973 and the Iranian Revolution of 1979. Both events resulted in disruptions of oil supplies from the region which created difficulties for the nations that relied on energy exports from the region.

In respect to this, what caused the 70's gas crisis?
The 1973 oil crisis began in October 1973 when the members of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries proclaimed an oil embargo. The embargo caused an oil crisis, or "shock", with many short- and long-term effects on global politics and the global economy.

Also, what year was the gas crisis in the 70s? 1979
Similarly, what caused the 1979 oil crisis? The 1979 (or second) oil crisis or oil shock occurred in the world due to decreased oil output in the wake of the Iranian Revolution. The price of crude oil more than doubled to $39.50 per barrel over the next 12 months, and long lines once again appeared at gas stations, as they had in the 1973 oil crisis.

How did the oil crisis affect the US economy in the 1970s?Inflation and economic stagnation produced “stagflation” and shook confidence in the American dream. The energy crisis played a key role in the economic downturn of the 1970s. With the OPEC oil embargo of 1973, oil prices jumped 350%, and the higher costs rippled through the economy.
Gas in 1973 was 33 cents a gallon. When the 1973 crisis was over, gas was doubled to about 70 cents/gallon.
By the time the 1979 oil embargo was over, gas became $1.25 gallon. With each progressive oil supply problem, gasoline went up until it settled in after the second Iraq War at what was about $2.50 gallon.

After the 1973 oil crisis, we stablished the "Strategic Oil Reserve"
After the 1979 oil crisis, we finally started to go more energy independent with solar, nuclear and wind power starting to develop as well as set up better mileage requirements from US auto manufacturing.
Coincidentally, 1979 days after the China Syndrome was released, the 3 Mile Island Nuclear accident occurred and nuclear was suddenly no longer viable. Electric cars have been around awhile, but GM was at the forefront with the EV-1. Watch "Who Killed the Electric Car" to get an idea of what happened to GM's prototype electric cars.

So, don't get all wound up. With interest rates increased, like in 1994, the economy should slowly settle down. The only uncertainty is Ukraine and the possibility of that dragging out like Afghanistan did for us.

Disney probably won't be much affected and certainly less affected than from COVID!

 

[eliza61nyc]

If you got a fool proof non lay off employment, go for it. Mickey will take everyone’s money.

if that's the requirement no one would go any where ever.
what's the old saying, "death and taxes are the only thing guaranteed ".
I think the only good thing to come out of covid was people suddenly realized that there was a lot more important things than working.
Even in this economy folks are still vacationing now they may be scaling back but no one I know is canceling.

 

[GuyFawkes]

To answer the post what happens is Disney will not drop their rates or prices but will offer more and more discounts and package deals, deals, deals, deals. It's annoying actually.

I can tell you from experience. My kids were old enough for WDW in around 2008. It was much much cheaper for my family to go to WDW from 2008 to 2012, somewhere around those years. Some of you would probably be shocked at my over all costs were for WDW.

Real Estate crash will be well under way this fall. I don't think that will be that big of a crash. Prices are simply way to high right now and need to reset. Stock market isn't done dropping, in my opinion in fact, I would say probably a year till bottom.

The biggest deal right now is inflation. Especially gas prices. You wouldn't think fuel causes that much trouble in the economy but it does. Fuel prices will take 6 months or so to really have a big effect in the economy but it will come and that kind of inflation will hurt WDW. The package deals and discounts are on there way.

 

[Model3 McQueen]

Thank goodness Disney still has the financial wisdom to spend millions upon millions of dollars on re-theming an already popular ride during a nasty economic recession

 

[disneyflush]

Looking at the current wait times to track crowds is misleading for a number of reasons:
1. WDW has now incentivized itself to have larger wait times to sell more Genie+ and Lightning Lanes. Even as crowds begin to decrease Disney will shift employees based on the # of park reservations to keep wait times at the same level. Low waits are terrible for them financially and they have sold this demand to Wall St as a ravenous beast. They will not remove the need to use these tools.
2. How far out do most people book their vacation? My family is usually 8 months - 11 months out when we book. The crowd levels seen now are from a different financial time. Vacations can be cancelled sure but most people will try to fit one last hurrah into their lives before the squeeze starts. I think we start to see the impact in late August/September with discount commercials beginning around the same time.

First trip I took my family was 2006 when I saw a commercial for Buy 4 Get 3 Free and we stayed in a fairly new Pop Century room over the 4th of July. 2 adults/1 child including the (back then incredibly amazing) meal plan (including app, entree, dessert, drink, tax & tip for $37.99/adults and $10.99 for 3-9 yr olds) and the total trip was about $1,800. The crowds were pretty heavy but it was the 4th of July week so it was to be expected. The trips after that saw a steady decline in the value at the fringes of the trip (dining plan reduced value each year, costs aggressively raised elsewhere). We moved up to moderates and then deluxe resorts as our incomes went up but always chased the magic of that first trip. Our last trip was December 2021 and the family (much bigger now) all agreed it would be our last in WDW's current state due to the stress and costs. We enjoyed Ireland 2 weeks ago and it was much less expensive than WDW. I'm not sure a comparison is really valid though as the experiences are so much different.

 

[Lilofan]

if that's the requirement no one would go any where ever.
what's the old saying, "death and taxes are the only thing guaranteed ".
I think the only good thing to come out of covid was people suddenly realized that there was a lot more important things than working.
Even in this economy folks are still vacationing now they may be scaling back but no one I know is canceling.

A number of nurses I know are not holding back. Not just a vacation getaway to FL but instead going to North Africa, Far East , Europe to get away from it all.

 

[jloucks]

Looking at the current wait times to track crowds is misleading for a number of reasons:
1. WDW has now incentivized itself to have larger wait times to sell more Genie+ and Lightning Lanes.

What I found out is there is VERY limited supply of Genie+/Lightening Lanes available. I thought I could just pay my way to no lines and a great day. I was geared up (money set aside) to skip 10-20 a day. Nope, not how it works at all. We got to skip maybe 4-5 lines over 2 days. Disney is doing a poor job at maximizing profit if selling Genie+/Lightening Lanes is the goal.

My theory is demand is so great there would be no non-paid access to rides anymore if Disney opened up unlimited Genie+/Lightening Lanes.

 

[Rabflmom]

I know we're in uncharted territory, and things are not looking good economically now (with inflation, the markets, etc.) Employment is still holding strong, but a lot of households are feeling the pinch from gas price increases and inflation affecting groceries.

I was not alive, nor did I attend, the parks during previous big economic corrections (1970's oil embargo, early 90's recession, early 00's recession, the Great Recession of the late 00's). I feel like each of those moments posed incredible challenges to the parks (and the tourism industry in general). In some cases, it seems entire parks weren't built (Westcot) or were substantially affected (Animal Kingdom, DCA).

To those that have lived through those times, and studied them, what was the general way in which the parks managed to soldier on during those times?

[This is not meant to minimize the broader societal/economic effects, but rather to get a sense of how something that is considered a luxury manages to maintain itself when money suddenly becomes tight or nonexistent.]

I can tell you that in1988 or 1989(I think) Disney World did a program that any Florida teacher could reserve a day at EPCOT for their students, EPCOT was free. They gave a meal at one of the walk up restaurants for something like $3 or $4 per child. The parking lot was full of school buses everyday that school year. Oh, I almost forgot each child, chaperone, bus driver, and teacher were given 1 pass to return later with their family. It was so much fun for all the kids. We had so many kids that had never been to Disney before because their parents could not afford it even back then. If the kids did not have the money for lunch all they needed was their parents consent to go on the field trip. PTO and teachers paid for them. I will never forget the smiles and 1 6th grade girl who made sure she rode everything with me holding y hand because she was scared in the dark and hated the dinosaurs.

 

[JIMINYCR]

Thank goodness Disney still has the financial wisdom to spend millions upon millions of dollars on re-theming an already popular ride during a nasty economic recession

Whats money in comparison to the PR they are after and appeasing the minor but loud voices that refuse to back down. Who cares that the majority of guests dont see the racial tones they have to keep bringing up to make their point in an attraction that pleases. And it will finally shut up the complaints and stain that raise up whenever they want to prove how evil Walt was.

 

[Tha Realest]

And it will finally shut up the complaints and stain that raise up whenever they want to prove how evil Walt was.

no. They’ll move on to some other problematic view or inference.

 

[chriskbrown]

Old enough to remember the affects of 9/11 on Disney. Almost no one travelled at all. We got a 4 for 7. You pay for 4 nights with tickets and got 7. October of 2003 we stayed concierge at WL. We had gone that year in Feb, staying offsite and remember the parks being empty.

 

[GuyFawkes]

Old enough to remember the affects of 9/11 on Disney. Almost no one travelled at all. We got a 4 for 7. You pay for 4 nights with tickets and got 7. October of 2003 we stayed concierge at WL. We had gone that year in Feb, staying offsite and remember the parks being empty.

Once again Disney will become cheap. Disney is fighting heterosexuals and families. Just about all major religions along with whole countries.

Economy is already in recession but the normal person won't see this for a while. I don't think we see high unemployment in the near future but I do think inflation is going to make the average person feel poorer.

Disney doesn't think they need the middle class so we will find out in the next 2 years, I'm sure.

 

[Lilofan]

Old enough to remember the affects of 9/11 on Disney. Almost no one travelled at all. We got a 4 for 7. You pay for 4 nights with tickets and got 7. October of 2003 we stayed concierge at WL. We had gone that year in Feb, staying offsite and remember the parks being empty.

In the mid 2000s, extra magic hours were real EMH. During 12/25-31 , MK for several days, the park hours were 7am-1am and evening EMH was 1am-4am.