It always amazes me how quickly all FastPasses are distributed for the Soarin' and Toy Story rides. How is it that so many guests "know" the demand and popularity of these attractions. It's as if they all have some level of working knowledge of the parks and which attractions are new/popular for which to secure FastPasses. If I flew to the UK to visit a theme park, let's call it "Williamsberg," I wouldn't know which attractions to secure FastPasses for unless I had previously done some homework.
From what I've observed in the parks, I don't think the average theme park guest is all that educated. In terms of TSMM, Soarin', etc. Don't forget these top rides are advertised in a non-stop loop on resort TVs, so people have those on their minds. Also, if you go to DHS one day, and find that FP are gone by noon for TSMM, you know that on your next morning at DHS you have to make that a priority. Keep in mind too that the people who are at RD are just a fraction of the theme park guests on any given day and they tend to be the more educated/commando types. People who are on a leisurely vacation and haven't done research don't know the benefits of getting there at RD (I know how great RD is supposed to be and I still never make it). Also, I think some people might ask around for tips, and what they might hear is how long the line was for TSMM, etc.
In terms of shortcuts, tips and touring plans, I still believe so few people use them that it really doesn't make an appreciable difference. According to the Unofficial Guide only 2% of guests are using their plans on any given day, so that isn't going to impact crowds much. Also, much of it is common sense. Before I knew anything about DIsney, I knew Space Mountain was a hot ride, so I probably would have run there first thing in the morning anyway. I didn't use a Touring plan for DHS, but I ran right to RnRR and ToT.
I think in general though, people are not very educated, so you can still get around bottlenecks if you are. For example, how many times have you seen a long line of people just headed right for SSE as they enter EPCOT? If they had read books, they'd know SSE is a continuous loader and will ONLY have lines when people are streaming in and heading right to it. In the morning you need to head to an E-ticket ride to get on and/or get a FP before the hoardes get in.
If you stay on property, and you don't do RD, observe how many people are still lining up for the bus to the park that had EMH long after EMH are over? If they were more educated, they'd know to avoid that park especially since they didn't make it for EMH. I know on my first trip, back when EMH was only morning, I used morning EMH to plan my trip. I had every intention of getting there in time for EMH, but even when I didn't, I still went to that park. I think many people still do that.
One thing I think MAY impact crowds is the use of the cell phone apps with lines, etc. I still think most people won't know they exist or use them, but I think if a popular attraction shows a short line, people may flock to it, though in general, I think it will even out. If both Splash and Space are showing short waits, that will split the crowd based on preference.
Internet boards and guidebooks have been around for a LONG time and other than the mad dashes at RD, we're far from seeing people all following the same course or the optimal touring plan. Most people don't know and never will know. Some people know and just can 't bring themsevles to follow any kind of plan on vacation, and some people (like me) only follow the plans and "best practices" loosely, according to preference. All of these variations mean that with foresight, you'll still be able to avoid crowds.
As for less crowded times becoming more crowded I don't think that has anything to do with internet sites. I think it's always been obvious/known that summer and Christmas are the most crowded times of the year. Disney actively has created events (MNSSHP, MWMCP, F&W, Marathon, etc etc), and promotions (Kids stay and play free, Free Dining, etc), during these "off" seasons to try to attract guests. I think it has more to do with Disney's marketing than anything else. Free Dining is a huge draw and may convince some people to take their kids out of school after all.
