Walt Disney World Holiday Season 2024

monothingie

monothingie

Make time to do nothing.
Premium Member
lentesta said:
It's probably $700MM/year domestically at this point.
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Almost all of which is profit.

Do you think they play with the inventory to maximize daily haul so to speak?

For example overselling (akin to airlines overbooking) on forecasted busy days in anticipation that not all LL entitlements will be redeemed, or holding back inventory on quieter days and releasing it over the course of the day to create scarcity and keep prices as high as possible.
 
T

Thank15

New Member
lentesta said:
I don't, although I'm working on an analysis of that for a manifesto ... I MEAN BLOG POST ... that should be out next week.

I'm told Disney's restaurant margins are > 50%.

I believe (because I was told) that third parties have a general rule where the cost to produce an item can't be more than 25% of its listed price. So a $16 appetizer costs $4 in labor and ingredients to produce.

I'm guessing 25%-ish of the $16 goes to rent, utilities, insurance, etc. Granted, Disney's its own landlord, but they have building maintenance to consider.

The margins on digital goods is pretty close to 100%. I'm guessing the cost of running Lightning Lane is ~$25MM annually, which would put margins at 97%.
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I know I’m preaching to the choir, but the trade off of short term profit in exchange for long term allegiance is so frustrating. A character meal is a memory that can make you want to come back. The extra add ons to just do what you already paid to do can make you a one and done.

TLDR: the Disney decade > the Disney fiscal quarter
 
lentesta

lentesta

Premium Member
monothingie said:
Almost all of which is profit.

Do you think they play with the inventory to maximize daily haul so to speak?

For example overselling (akin to airlines overbooking) on forecasted busy days in anticipation that not all LL entitlements will be redeemed, or holding back inventory on quieter days and releasing it over the course of the day to create scarcity and keep prices as high as possible.
Click to expand...

The part of me that thinks that is fighting with the part of me says park ops relies heavily on young adults who aren’t trained to manage that kind of daily variability. So I don’t know.
 
lentesta

lentesta

Premium Member
Trueblood said:
You might be conflating some numbers there.

My understanding is that the rule of thumb is to triple the food cost of an item, and that markup covers facilities, labor, etc. More sophisticated businesses will average that markup across the menu, which is why you see lasagna (<$1 to make a portion) sold for $20 at spots like Carrabba's.

The average net profit margin for full-service restaurants is something like 10%. If Disney can pull 50%, that's astonishing.
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Thank you for that context.

The 4x thing comes directly from a WDW third party. The margins are a ballpark from someone in the industry.
 
C

Cliff

Well-Known Member
I read a few months back that Burbank has already raked in close to 1 billion dollars on LL. (And that was months ago)

If this is true, this "pay to ride" or "pay to skip the line" business model is here to stay forever. The only question now is: Can this business model sustain itself? What happens "if" Burbank's research begins to show that high numbers of guests are frustrated with app purchases and overall high prices so much so that they begin to avoid Disney parks in high numbers?

Theoretical question: Where is the tipping point? If WDW only had "half" of it's normal, annual number of guests, but then successfully charged "double" the average cost to the remaining half of attending guests? Or in other words, how far can they squeeze guests that DO go to cover the loss of the guests that reject going?

This is a mind-boggling mathematical equation that "slides" left and right to deliver a financial sum that Burbank is happy with. As far as average revenue per user goes, (ARPU) what is the amount of money that the average person is willing to pay for a single day at Disney?

$35 parking?
$150 ticket?
$60 Lightning Lane?
$75 food and snacks?
$50 Merch?
$?? Hotel night?

Would $370 seem like an average value that high numbers of people are willing to pay for one park day? (average for 80% of park guests) Maybe the answer is much lower or much higher. I don't know. I do suspect that Burbank's bean counters are searching for this number to add into the algorithms?

I just feel like Burbank is riding a tightrope with price hikes and it will be fascinating to see how this plays out in 2 more years.
 
lentesta

lentesta

Premium Member
I've updated our analysis with wait times through yesterday (Sunday):

header.png


Orlando had heavy rains for much of Sunday. That definitely affected crowds.

The Magic Kingdom's average waits were the lowest they've been at non-pandemic Christmas since December 29, 2013, a day also with a lot of rain.

I'm surprised about EPCOT's drop in waits. Test Track is down, so you'd think capacity would be impacted enough to drive people to the other attractions. Maybe not Mission: Space, but others. Still, wait times are down across the board there.

Universal's still showing gains over last year. Hagrid's, Spider-Man, Transformers, and Gringott's continue to do well.
 
D

DisneyFanatic12

Well-Known Member
Polynesian is allegedly under a hard lockdown right now for their NYE party. Access via the walkway from TTC is blocked by security. They expect the walkway to reopen tonight after the 11:50pm firework showing.

Update:
Monorail access is unrestricted. GF->Poly walkway is blocked off.
 
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J

jrhwdw

Well-Known Member
Here's the NYE Schedule for WDW:



Should be interesting what kind of Fireworks show up at DHS......


I'm not finding Times for Frozen Holiday Surprise or Most Meeriest.....

A DJ Should Not over rule those 2 Shows!!!!
 
bmr1591

bmr1591

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Cliff said:
I read a few months back that Burbank has already raked in close to 1 billion dollars on LL. (And that was months ago)

If this is true, this "pay to ride" or "pay to skip the line" business model is here to stay forever. The only question now is: Can this business model sustain itself? What happens "if" Burbank's research begins to show that high numbers of guests are frustrated with app purchases and overall high prices so much so that they begin to avoid Disney parks in high numbers?

Theoretical question: Where is the tipping point? If WDW only had "half" of it's normal, annual number of guests, but then successfully charged "double" the average cost to the remaining half of attending guests? Or in other words, how far can they squeeze guests that DO go to cover the loss of the guests that reject going?

This is a mind-boggling mathematical equation that "slides" left and right to deliver a financial sum that Burbank is happy with. As far as average revenue per user goes, (ARPU) what is the amount of money that the average person is willing to pay for a single day at Disney?

$35 parking?
$150 ticket?
$60 Lightning Lane?
$75 food and snacks?
$50 Merch?
$?? Hotel night?

Would $370 seem like an average value that high numbers of people are willing to pay for one park day? (average for 80% of park guests) Maybe the answer is much lower or much higher. I don't know. I do suspect that Burbank's bean counters are searching for this number to add into the algorithms?

I just feel like Burbank is riding a tightrope with price hikes and it will be fascinating to see how this plays out in 2 more years.
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From conversations I've had with once a year/every other year people, LL isn't a deterrent to most families because it's optional. Park tickets and hotel prices, though, are the biggest offenders that make people reconsider a trip. LL frustration comes after paying exorbitant prices for those two.
 
gerarar

gerarar

Premium Member
jrhwdw said:
Here's the NYE Schedule for WDW:



Should be interesting what kind of Fireworks show up at DHS......


I'm not finding Times for Frozen Holiday Surprise or Most Meeriest.....

A DJ Should Not over rule those 2 Shows!!!!
Click to expand...

Some of the casts for Frozen Holiday Surprise on IG bid their farewell to the show on Saturday, so it's probably done for the season.
 

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