News Walt Disney Company First Quarter 2020 Earnings report shows increased spending at the parks and resorts and slight attendance gains

[Chef Mickey]

Trust me... at some point that is going to catch up with them, big time. For the wealthy the economy is still strong and others may be so mentally sure that the end is near that they are just running up debt because they figure they will never have to repay it. But, eventually people will decide that there are many things that people can do that don't require taking out a mortgage and then standing in line b itching because the are hot, miserable and that they already have seeing most of this stuff for decades.

That has probably already started to happen and explains why, all of a sudden, Disney decided that they needed to spend billions to build new stuff to alleviate the Guest boredom. Catch 22: getting to see the new stuff, at least for now, involves jumping through many, many hoops to even have a chance to experience them. Disney parks, like vaudeville will someday be just a thing that a lot of people used to do.

Why should I trust you? You're utterly wrong to this point. Disney Parks will be vaudeville?

Disney Parks were still hugely profitable even during the worst recession since the Great Depression.

People are willing to jump through a few hoops and wait in a few lines for greatness like Rise of the Resistance and Flight of Passage.

Parks always evolve so they will spend billions again. The good thing is, the have the billions to spend. People are coming in RECORD numbers.

Why people like you refuse to accept facts is beyond me. You’re like the guy calling the market crash every year until it happens only for it to roar back stronger than ever. Meanwhile, you miss out on all the gains.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Why should I trust you? You're utterly wrong to this point. Disney Parks will be vaudeville?

Disney Parks were still hugely profitable even during the worst recession since the Great Depression.

People are willing to jump through a few hoops and wait in a few lines for greatness like Rise of the Resistance and Flight of Passage.

Parks always evolve so they will spend billions again. The good thing is, the have the billions to spend. People are coming in RECORD numbers.

Why people like you refuse to accept facts is beyond me. You’re like the guy calling the market crash every year until it happens only for it to roar back stronger than ever. Meanwhile, you miss out on all the gains.

You don't have to because I am working on a feeling just as you are working on an opposite feeling. So why should I trust your judgement. I didn't say it was going to happen tomorrow, but everything changes with time and our entertainment venues can change just like governments and big can't fail business. It happens and it is just as likely to happen with Disney as anyone else.

For one small thing they may decide to sell the parks to other companies because I'm sure the operating a theme park and trying to make thousands of people a day happy is a major PITA. I have seen so many businesses that have raised their prices basically to make the thing they are trying to sell more attractive to a potential buyer, along with many external improvements. Maybe or maybe not, but like I said you have no better way to see into the future then I do. I am basing things on the past that has happened and left a paper trail, yours is on wishful thinking. Personally, I hope you are right, but my faith in the intelligence of this country right now is at a very low level and perhaps that is what is giving me the negative feel.

Just as you feel strongly that there will never be a market crash. Based on what? I don't think that it will ever be like the great depression but a severe recession is just as painful in today's world and we just had one in 2008, it's not like it was a couple centuries ago. I never said that what I stated was fact. How could I it hasn't happened yet, but the facts are what has happened not what we think will happen. So your guess can be just as good as mine. One of us is right only time will tell which one of us it is. In this case I sincerely hope you are correct, but I'm just a little less rainbows and unicorns.

 

[Chef Mickey]

You don't have to because I am working on a feeling just as you are working on an opposite feeling. So why should I trust your judgement. I didn't say it was going to happen tomorrow, but everything changes with time and our entertainment venues can change just like governments and big can't fail business. It happens and it is just as likely to happen with Disney as anyone else.

For one small thing they may decide to sell the parks to other companies because I'm sure the operating a theme park and trying to make thousands of people a day happy is a major PITA. I have seen so many businesses that have raised their prices basically to make the thing they are trying to sell more attractive to a potential buyer, along with many external improvements. Maybe or maybe not, but like I said you have no better way to see into the future then I do. I am basing things on the past that has happened and left a paper trail, yours is on wishful thinking. Personally, I hope you are right, but my faith in the intelligence of this country right now is at a very low level and perhaps that is what is giving me the negative feel.

Just as you feel strongly that there will never be a market crash. Based on what? I don't think that it will ever be like the great depression but a severe recession is just as painful in today's world and we just had one in 2008, it's not like it was a couple centuries ago. I never said that what I stated was fact. How could I it hasn't happened yet, but the facts are what has happened not what we think will happen. So your guess can be just as good as mine. One of us is right only time will tell which one of us it is. In this case I sincerely hope you are correct, but I'm just a little less rainbows and unicorns.

All the evidence is against you. I’m working on hard data. The evidence says you’re dead wrong, period.

 

[HauntedPirate]

All the evidence is against you. I’m working on hard data. The evidence says you’re dead wrong, period.

What, his gut feeling vs. PEP generating $6+ billion in annual profit doesn’t convince you they want to sell off the parks??

 

[Goofyernmost]

All the evidence is against you. I’m working on hard data. The evidence says you’re dead wrong, period.

I guess we will see with time. The public can be a fickle mistress. BTW, how did you get "hard data" on a future that hasn't happened yet. All we can get about the future is a fragile optimistic projection. The hard data I have been using is from things that have actually happened so, my actual evidence says you're dead wrong, exclamation point!

 

[eliza61nyc]

Trust me... at some point that is going to catch up with them, big time. For the wealthy the economy is still strong and others may be so mentally sure that the end is near that they are just running up debt because they figure they will never have to repay it. But, eventually people will decide that there are many things that people can do that don't require taking out a mortgage and then standing in line b itching because the are hot, miserable and that they already have seeing most of this stuff for decades.

That has probably already started to happen and explains why, all of a sudden, Disney decided that they needed to spend billions to build new stuff to alleviate the Guest boredom. Catch 22: getting to see the new stuff, at least for now, involves jumping through many, many hoops to even have a chance to experience them. Disney parks, like vaudeville will someday be just a thing that a lot of people used to do.

Ok seriously?? So lets go with the vaudeville premise, if you really think about it vaudeville didn't so much as die as it morphed and changed as technology changed. we use to have the old Beta max tapes (lol, I just found a box of them) now we are into live streaming.
The reason why they spend billions is because it's exactly what companies do when the recognize they need to update. I would argue that they should have done it years ago.

Now sorry folks have been threatening the "future" demise of the parks and the economy for the last what?? at least 5 years and we are currently in a 10 year bull market that will definitely last through 2020, the economy is strong, not just for the wealthy. Jobs are secure and working folks are enjoying watching their 401Ks grow. Now I am wondering how student loan debt will effect spending say in 20 years but that's another thread. Of course at some point there will be a correction. then we will see what we always see with any company, deep discounts and a slow period.

I always ask this, what time period are you suggesting 5 year? 10 years? now sure in 50 years the parks are certain to be different, but I'll be grass fertilizer by then. I do think in 50 years the parks will be totally different so maybe they do "die" and reinvent themselves.

I love how everyone assumes that the people who go to Disney are deep in debt. now I don't know about who you know but everyone I know goes on vacation the old fashion way, they save up during the year. I know a bunch of friends who are credit card savvy and use points to get a bunch of stuff paid for. My trip in August? got three flights free with my American airlines visa points.

 

[eliza61nyc]

What, his gut feeling vs. PEP generating $6+ billion in annual profit doesn’t convince you they want to sell off the parks??

Hey HauntedPirate, I apologize if this is a simple question but whats PEP?

 

[HauntedPirate]

Hey HauntedPirate, I apologize if this is a simple question but whats PEP?

The “Parks, Experiences, & Products” division.

 

[Goofyernmost]

Yea, I know that we all see the word Billion and think that is just not exhaustible. With companies the size of Disney it would only take one major mistake for it all to be gone quickly. The idea of asking for a date this will happen is unbelievable. I can't see into the future in detail, I can only look at the why things are trending vs history and because of that know that no economy is bullet proof. If you think everyone is comfortably employed your vision is pretty nearsighted. Just because your neighbors just got a new car in no way tells you what their financial condition really is. Credit is an enabler. Of course not everyone that goes to Disney parks are deep in debt, but are there enough of them to sustain the place by themselves? Ask the farmers that had to shut down or have their livelihood declined or had to take a socialistic handout from the government in order to survive because of miss directed tariffs, manufacturing closing, many high paying white collar jobs being downsized. Remember how big Kodak was at one time? It was huge, it is now gone. Nothing can survive the change in technology or perhaps the creation of something better.

Talking about it for 5 years? Do you consider that a long time in the grand scheme of things? Obviously your farsightedness requires a new prescription. The big picture is much more vulnerable then narrow vision. Things can happen and history shows that they will as some point. We have not solved the problems that trigger that stuff, if anything we have made it worse. I will be worm food before long myself and there is a chance that even I might see it happen. Not as likely as my children and grandchildren, but I don't see how it can be so easily dismissed as never being able to become a reality.

 

[eliza61nyc]

Yea, I know that we all see the word Billion and think that is just not exhaustible. With companies the size of Disney it would only take one major mistake for it all to be gone quickly. The idea of asking for a date this will happen is unbelievable. I can't see into the future in detail, I can only look at the why things are trending vs history and because of that know that no economy is bullet proof. If you think everyone is comfortably employed your vision is pretty nearsighted. Just because your neighbors just got a new car in no way tells you what their financial condition really is. Credit is an enabler. Of course not everyone that goes to Disney parks are deep in debt, but are there enough of them to sustain the place by themselves? Ask the farmers that had to shut down or have their livelihood declined or had to take a socialistic handout from the government in order to survive because of miss directed tariffs, manufacturing closing, many high paying white collar jobs being downsized. Remember how big Kodak was at one time? It was huge, it is now gone. Nothing can survive the change in technology or perhaps the creation of something better.

Talking about it for 5 years? Do you consider that a long time in the grand scheme of things? Obviously your farsightedness requires a new prescription. The big picture is much more vulnerable then narrow vision. Things can happen and history shows that they will as some point. We have not solved the problems that trigger that stuff, if anything we have made it worse. I will be worm food before long myself and there is a chance that even I might see it happen. Not as likely as my children and grandchildren, but I don't see how it can be so easily dismissed as never being able to become a reality.

So I will admit, my sampling pool is very small. I apologize, I do know that many people use credit, heck I use credit also. the question becomes if one uses it wisely. again I try to always admit that my sampling size is only a few hundred folks who I either work with or worship with.
Kodak is gone for the very reasons we are pointing out, failure to change. the size doesn't matter, big or small any business that fails to change and give it's customers what it wants dies. Right now Disney is delivering. We may not like what they are offering but it's extremely obvious that many folks do. also change does not mean collapse. Will Disney change, morph and the parks look totally different? absolutely? actually I'm hoping the sell off the parks division but that ain't happening either. I can wish though.

No one has said the economy is "bullet proof" in fact most have said a correction is coming. but a correction is not a COLLAPSE. corrections are the normal part of the economic cycle. Again many have said that when the next bear market comes, whenever it comes the mouse world will adjust accordingly.
Yes I do think there are enough "non swimming in debt" folks to maintain the parks. Exactly what are these things that are trending that portends collapse. I admit I use the normal economic indicators. I work for a company the size of Disney although I'm in chemicals which is a bit different than entertainment but generally we do our objectives on a 5, 6 year outlook. not 25 years and trying to predict the state of the economy further than that is more adventurous than I am.

So I'll just end it on folks have been predicting the demise of Disney, pretty much every year whenever there is a price increase. I specifically remember the arguments about Disney going under if the ticket price went over 100 and yet here we are what 5-6 years later as popular as ever. People have also been saying that it's unattainable for the "middle class" for a long time.

I'm predicting in 2030 years we'll be on this site pretty much saying the same thing but I will concede your point. Yes any thing could happen. the corona virus could blow through and wipe out the entire population, we could have another world war. there could be some thing catastrophic to make wdw close it's gates in the near future however one defines that period.

 

[Goofyernmost]

So I will admit, my sampling pool is very small. I apologize, I do know that many people use credit, heck I use credit also. the question becomes if one uses it wisely. again I try to always admit that my sampling size is only a few hundred folks who I either work with or worship with.
Kodak is gone for the very reasons we are pointing out, failure to change. the size doesn't matter, big or small any business that fails to change and give it's customers what it wants dies. Right now Disney is delivering. We may not like what they are offering but it's extremely obvious that many folks do. also change does not mean collapse. Will Disney change, morph and the parks look totally different? absolutely? actually I'm hoping the sell off the parks division but that ain't happening either. I can wish though.

No one has said the economy is "bullet proof" in fact most have said a correction is coming. but a correction is not a COLLAPSE. corrections are the normal part of the economic cycle. Again many have said that when the next bear market comes, whenever it comes the mouse world will adjust accordingly.
Yes I do think there are enough "non swimming in debt" folks to maintain the parks. Exactly what are these things that are trending that portends collapse. I admit I use the normal economic indicators. I work for a company the size of Disney although I'm in chemicals which is a bit different than entertainment but generally we do our objectives on a 5, 6 year outlook. not 25 years and trying to predict the state of the economy further than that is more adventurous than I am.

So I'll just end it on folks have been predicting the demise of Disney, pretty much every year whenever there is a price increase. I specifically remember the arguments about Disney going under if the ticket price went over 100 and yet here we are what 5-6 years later as popular as ever. People have also been saying that it's unattainable for the "middle class" for a long time.

I'm predicting in 2030 years we'll be on this site pretty much saying the same thing but I will concede your point. Yes any thing could happen. the corona virus could blow through and wipe out the entire population, we could have another world war. there could be some thing catastrophic to make wdw close it's gates in the near future however one defines that period.

OK, all of that is conjecture just like mine was. What isn't conjecture is that the Federal Reserve has reported that the cumulative independent debt of CC's as of the end of 2019 was 1,098.0 Billion** and rising, just 5 years ago it was 906.7 Billion. That doesn't take into account College Debt which is going to put a substantial kink in the budgets of young people getting started or car payments or mortgages. That means no extravagant vacations unless it is on a Credit Card. Even then as some point it will be impossible to pay that all off. Bankruptcies will increase, less credit will be available and the only people that will be able to fill Disney's very big pockets will be the very wealthy, but the question is will there be enough of the very wealthy willing to put down the caviar and go to a theme park.

Disney had to be forced to spend money to upgrade in order to compete with others. They have been thinking only about today and not tomorrow. Most of the big wheels at Disney will be comfortably living on their private islands in the Caribbean after having converted their shares of Disney into cash, yachts and conch shells by the time it all catches up. The demand may stay high but the ability to pay is getting worse and only gets worse when Disney decides that if they build it, they will come no matter what they charge. They may want too, but will they be able too. The piper has to be paid at some point.

I hope for the benefit of the youth and young at heart, I am wrong. I'm not a specialist in this area but, I do exercise a degree of common sense which leaves me alarmed.

Spoiler: ** Worded to deceive by the Feds..."

That really is 1 trillion, 98 Billion.

 

[eliza61nyc]

Ouch, ok better sell my stock ahead of this collapse.
As you say we'll have to wait and see. Do young people not save for vacations anymore. The 34 year olds I know are planning their vacations for the 50th. They are (from what they say) are simply saving.
Would it be tacky to ask this question on the planning section??
I am intrigued that the great majority of people who go to Disney can't afford it.

Very interesting

 

[Goofyernmost]

Ouch, ok better sell my stock ahead of this collapse.
As you say we'll have to wait and see. Do young people not save for vacations anymore. The 34 year olds I know are planning their vacations for the 50th. They are (from what they say) are simply saving.
Would it be tacky to ask this question on the planning section??
I am intrigued that the great majority of people who go to Disney can't afford it.

Very interesting

It really depends on what stage of their life they are in. I never went myself until I was 35 and that was with a very tight budget. A couple of times later on when both my daughters and my wife were in College the card heated up again. My wife had her own set of CC's that I didn't get to see. She had three that she maxed out to the tune of 30K, I had been paying a lot of bills for my business on credit cards and my debt for CC's alone was 100K. Due to circumstances out of my control I had to close the business and without that cash flow I was unable to keep up the minimum and was forced to file for Bankruptcy. That was the only thing that saved my life. I'd still be paying on that today if I hadn't taken the path. That was in 1998. I was two years where I couldn't have a credit card and when I was finally able to get one again, it had a limit of $2000.00. I made sure that was paid in full every month and over the years have picked up a few more cards with a total credit line of about 20K. But, except for the trip to WDW I brought my family on in 2008 it has never seen more then $1500 per month since then. All paid immediately. There really are very few people that pay off the total every month. Some attempt to do that but succumb to the temptation when things are tight and once that gets started it almost never lets go.

 

[eliza61nyc]

It really depends on what stage of their life they are in. I never went myself until I was 35 and that was with a very tight budget. A couple of times later on when both my daughters and my wife were in College the card heated up again. My wife had her own set of CC's that I didn't get to see. She had three that she maxed out to the tune of 30K, I had been paying a lot of bills for my business on credit cards and my debt for CC's alone was 100K. Due to circumstances out of my control I had to close the business and without that cash flow I was unable to keep up the minimum and was forced to file for Bankruptcy. That was the only thing that saved my life. I'd still be paying on that today if I hadn't taken the path. That was in 1998. I was two years where I couldn't have a credit card and when I was finally able to get one again, it had a limit of $2000.00. I made sure that was paid in full every month and over the years have picked up a few more cards with a total credit line of about 20K. But, except for the trip to WDW I brought my family on in 2008 it has never seen more then $1500 per month since then. All paid immediately. There really are very few people that pay off the total every month. Some attempt to do that but succumb to the temptation when things are tight and once that gets started it almost never lets go.

understandable.

I grew up with a family where no one used credit cards so I never used them. My mother got an American express card and put me as an additional card holder when I went to college only because I went to school out of state and she wanted me to be able to get home quickly in case of an emergency. I was never tempted to use it primarily because my mother had a threat that we believed, she was an attorney and used to say "I will kill you, bury you and get away with the crime". lol I took her at her word.

Interestingly enough my husband started his own business and we still never used our credit cards. When we started going to the world when our kids came along we did what I see many of the youngins on the job do. We made our reservations a year out and simply paid down on it. My boss and I talk alot and they do they same. they don't go annually but pretty much they have a vacation account and pay into it just like their 401k, their mortgage and any other bill. The year we purchased our dvc, we pretty much wiped out our savings, talk about doing nothing?? lol no eating out, no movies, nada. lol unfortunately we're two ocd personalities some times.

we never really got outta control because we always wanted to retire by 55 so we simply focused on that. unfortunately my hubby had cancer and didn't make it but I think we've instilled good habits on the minions. my kids range in age 26-30 and none of them have any credit card debt, now they did have a leg up because two went to college without loans and the third went to trade school .

I put absolutely every thing on my cards mainly because I get the travel rewards. unfortunately I live in the high COL east coast, so I can pretty much wrack up a lot of points. I agree that many do not pay off their bills at the end of each month.

 

[WallyWorld]

Thought this thread was about Disney Company earnings.....

 

[MisterPenguin]

As far as pricing it's simple. You charge $100 and 1,000 show up that's $100,000. Charge $200 and 750 people show up you are still making more money. $150,000.

...and customer satisfaction goes up since there's 25% fewer other guests. This means that price increases can lead to customer surveys saying they had a better experience.

If you were running a business and you raised prices and were making better profits and customers were *happier*.... why would you ever lower them?

 

[eliza61nyc]

...and customer satisfaction goes up since there's 25% fewer other guests. This means that price increases can lead to customer surveys saying they had a better experience.

If you were running a business and you raised prices and were making better profits and customers were *happier*.... why would you ever lower them?

Sssh Mr. P you said the "B" word. That's not allowed here.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Sssh Mr. P you said the "B" word. That's not allowed here.

You mean... bassoon?