Touring Plans...Whats up?

[3fordisney]

We just got back from a short trip to WDW. Before we left, we checked touring plans for their crowd predictions and once again they were completely wrong. We checked it a few weeks prior and it had 7's then 1 week before it was changed to 9's. What's up with that?

While we were there, we found the waits to be less than it was in May and didn't match the crowd prediction numbers given by touring plans. In the past, its been pretty accurate, but this year it is so far off. It couldn't have been more wrong this time. We didn't experience 9's at all. I know the economy is bad and that might be part of the mistakes. However, I wonder if the times are inaccurate so more plans are being sold??

 

[DisneyJoe]

Did you follow their advice and go to the parks they recommended and avoid the parks they said to avoid?

If so, that is probably why you didn't experience any 9's - that is the way they system is supposed to work.

Len Testa is a member here and will probably be along to add his insight.

 

[Philo]

I guess the thing here is that that the crowd levels are only predictions and they can only make an educated guess.

From what I understand they look at a lot of factors (crowd history, special events, holidays, climate, school activity, hotel occupancy and probably a whole lot more) and collate the information and in my experience are generally pretty good. However, it's still only a guess and there will always be 'supprisingly' high / low crowds... If only people were more predictable...

 

[3fordisney]

No. I did not follow their plans and never had. I monitor their crowd predictions when we have a trip planned and notice that this year they have posted a low number at first then up it to a higher one closer to the actual date and this happened twice this year so far. I did not experience 9's at all and not because I followed one of their plans. I am just curious as to why they are changing their predictions as dates get closer when the first ones were a little closer to accurate. Its an observation and I am curious as to if anyone else has noticed this trend. It makes the info they provide less accurate.

I also am fully aware that these are just predictions. However, they do sell this info to people willing to pay for it in advance. I know that crowds levels can change. I am just curious as to why they are increasing the crowd # when the dates get closer. It just an observation and I am curious if anyone else has noticed this trend.

 

[disney4life2008]

I dont know about you, but Touring Plans was a life save on my May trip!

 

[DisneyJoe]

They address this frequently in their blog.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/05/12/updates-crowd-calendar-august-schedule/
http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/05/15/disney-world-crowd-prediction/
http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/03/31/top-5-misconceptions-about-crowds/

You said you didn't experience 9's but you didn't say what you experienced - all you said was that they were completely wrong...

 

[nibblesandbits]

They address this frequently in their blog.

http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/05/12/updates-crowd-calendar-august-schedule/
http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/05/15/disney-world-crowd-prediction/
http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/03/31/top-5-misconceptions-about-crowds/

You said you didn't experience 9's but you didn't say what you experienced - all you said was that they were completely wrong...

I know one of the factors that Len often talks about on his podcast: and it's that they go off of Disney's park hours as an indicator...if Disney extended the park hours from what it originally was (something I know they've been doing a lot of lately), then Touring Plans adjusts their own calendar. (They assume that Disney believes that crowds will be up which is why they are fixing their schedule an typically increasing the crowd calendar).

This I believe is a major reason why things keep changing for them. Although, from what Len says, their record is still pretty darn close. Yes, they may have some times when it's off, but typically it's only off by one either way.


I don't know what you experienced, but I would have really enjoyed lighter crowds. (A friend of mine just came back and he typically visits in summer and says that yes, the crowds were lighter this year for him.)

 

[3fordisney]

We were expecting heavy crowds from everything we saw and it was lighter than it was just in May. We were there from July 16-20th and where we always expect hr or more waits on Soarin', Test Track and Toy Story Mania, it wasn't the case the entire trip. At MK, it was 20 mins for Buzz, 30 mins for BTHRR, 50-60 mins for Splash Mtn and this was Sunday. Saturday was actually lighter wait times of 20-30 mins, even 1 hr after opening.

Compared to what was predicted (at first 7's then 9's), and these wait times, it was more than 1 off. Actually, for BTMRR, it was often posted as a 20 min wait and turned out to be more like 5-10 mins. I don't use the plans. We go often enough to know what we want to ride and how to achieve it. I guess what I am trying to figure out is why up the wait time expected when the original guess is closer. It was not a 9's weekend. It was much less.

If I were a first time guest and were planning a trip based on the info provided, I would be confused and would not have planned based on 9's. However, it was no where near 9's. It was a great time to go. I am fully aware that summer crowds are usually larger and with the economy in the shape its in, it would have an impact on crowd levels. We had no wait for a Dole Whip! I walked right up and got one in the middle of the afternoon. I've never been able to do that. I've always had to wait in a line for that.

 

[spaceghost]

The crowd calendar is based off of massive amounts of data filtered through a fancy-dancy computer program. I don't think anyone has developed anything that comes even close to what Len and company has. I think the problem you encountered is more due to the volatility of park attendance we've been seeing lately. With the economy, it was expected that attendance would be down, but deep discounting by Disney has actually caused the opposite. Now that the "Buy 4 Get 3 Free" promotion is over, I think that we are seeing a drop in attendance. Len actually posted as much over on TouringPlans.com the other day, indicating that since that promotion ended, attendance has gone down by roughly 1% a week. Seems like a hard time to predict park crowds to me...

 

[3fordisney]

I agree that it is too difficult to predict what crowd levels will be, especially during these economic times. I do not base my trip planning on these predictions, but actually look at them to see how close or in this case, how far off base touring plans are for the time period we are there. I am concerned for those who have never been or who might actually put too much faith into a prediction by someone who sells a product to work around large crowds.

Well, I guess my point is why up the number from a 7 to a 9 if there is a steady decline in attendance due to the end of a promotion? It doesn't make much sense to predict a larger crowd :shrug:.

If you predict 7's and there is an apparant decline, why change it to a 9? I would decrease it or leave it alone unless there is a decline in the purchase of touring plans and higher crowd predictions lead to an increase in the purchase of plans.

 

[lentesta]

Hey folks,

A couple of things:

1) The crowd prediction is tied to the peak wait time at the Magic Kingdom's headliner attractions (Splash, Big Thunder, and Space). There are many reasons for this, the most important of which is that it's simple to say whether the prediction is right. Due to their number of attractions and popularity, however, a 9 at the MK isn't a 9 at the AK. Assuming it is is one of the most common mistakes in reading the calendar.

2) The crowd predictions have generally been +/- 1 (i.e., within 10 minutes) for the last couple of weeks.

My guess is that the OP was looking at the crowds in the other parks and (correctly) saying those weren't 9's. In that case, the question isn't whether the crowd calendar is accurate (see #2), but whether using the MK is the best method of illustrating crowd levels. If that's the OP's intent, happy to talk about alternatives.

Len

 

[DisneyJoe]

However, I wonder if the times are inaccurate so more plans are being sold??

I would decrease it or leave it alone unless there is a decline in the purchase of touring plans and higher crowd predictions lead to an increase in the purchase of plans.

I personally am offended by your implications - and I have no relationship with Len or his site.

It's always been my assumption that the site was an extension of the books and the paid access to the touring plans was secondary - and at $8.95 per year for access (that's 75 cents per month) for access to over 100 touring plans (or less than 9 cents per plan!) - and they offer a 45-day money back guarantee - I don't believe that Len and friends are getting rich from this.


Also - wouldn't you want to err on the side of predicting higher crowds? If a new visitor to WDW expects high crowds and finds them not to be so, wouldn't they be HAPPY? Isn't that what we want? Conversely, if Len and team kept things on the low side and the crowds were higher, that could have the new visitor very unhappy....

-Joe

 

[lentesta]

I would decrease it or leave it alone unless there is a decline in the purchase of touring plans and higher crowd predictions lead to an increase in the purchase of plans.

Ah, I didn't catch this in the original post. Leaving aside the question of whether we'd rig the crowd calendar to sell more plans, and leaving aside the question of whether rigging the calendar would, in fact, actually sell more plans, the fact remains that the crowd calendar is an objective measurement of wait times in the Magic Kingdom. Anyone could, at any time, take a couple of hours in the Magic Kingdom to compare the posted wait times with our predictions to tell whether we're right or wrong (and if you've got an iPhone wait-time app, heck, do it from home).

Allowing other people to check our work is an intentional part of the calendar's design - you don't have to take our word for the calendar's accuracy. We also post the results of our predictions versus actual wait times in the park, again to be as transparent as possible about the calendar's performance. There are certainly instances (this Easter comes to mind) where we were off by more than 1 or 2 on the calendar. We acknowledged it and made corrections.

Incidentally, when we were off on Easter, we underpredicted the crowds. To the OP's point, we therefore sold fewer plans that we would have otherwise. So if we actually had some sort of master scheme to rig the calendar to sell more plans, we failed spectacularly at it. :lol:

Len

 

[3fordisney]

I wonder then when was MK at a 9 during this time frame? I was not only looking at MK, but all 4 parks. It was not a 9 at any and also, the predictions were off in May as well. I am finding it hilarious that no one is answering the question and Len may want to read the later post:

Why change it from a 7 to a 9 when according to loyal followers touring plans says there has been a weekly 1% decline in attendance since the end of buy 4 get 3 free promotion? Its a simple question. Why not answer it???:brick::brick::brick:It has still not been answered!

 

[bradandsarabr]

I wonder then when was MK at a 9 during this time frame?

Unless you spent 14 hours at MK monitoring the wait times at Space, Splash, & thunder Mt., you cannot state that the times were less than 9. As I understand the calendar, the 9 is an average wait time at those attractions. Now, I never wait that long for those attractions because I read these boards & Len's book. But if one were to try to get on Splash at 3 p.m. in a Stand-by line today, I know the wait would be a 9.

 

[DisneyJoe]

Why change it from a 7 to a 9 when according to loyal followers touring plans says there has been a weekly 1% decline in attendance since the end of buy 4 get 3 free promotion? Its a simple question. Why not answer it??? It has still not been answered!

Did you read their many blog posts? They answer questions like this there repeatedly.

 

[3fordisney]

I personally am offended by your implications - and I have no relationship with Len or his site.

It's always been my assumption that the site was an extension of the books and the paid access to the touring plans was secondary - and at $8.95 per year for access (that's 75 cents per month) for access to over 100 touring plans (or less than 9 cents per plan!) - and they offer a 45-day money back guarantee - I don't believe that Len and friends are getting rich from this.


Also - wouldn't you want to err on the side of predicting higher crowds? If a new visitor to WDW expects high crowds and finds them not to be so, wouldn't they be HAPPY? Isn't that what we want? Conversely, if Len and team kept things on the low side and the crowds were higher, that could have the new visitor very unhappy....

-Joe

Joe,

Why would you be offended by my question? Unless you have a personal connection with touring plans, you should not be offended by my question. Believe it or not, touring plans is a business and a business makes funds by charging customers for a service (in this case, touring plans). Shocking, I know! The amount of the service has no weight. It doesn't matter if its under $10 for a year. If the info isn't correct, why pay the $10? It is no different than when someone post a question about why Disney does what they do...its just that, a question. You must be connnected if you are offended :lookaroun. If you don't know them personally or have not used their services, you should not be offended. I have not attacked anyone or any business. A simple question was asked and not answered.

I don't think the question can be answered ot will be answered.
I'll ask it again and maybe the loyal followers will understand what's being asked this time:

According to spaceghost's post, touring plans has said there was a weekly decline of 1% since the end of Buy 4 get 3 free promotion ended. If this is the case, why change from a 7 to a 9 when the date got closer? (To my knowledge, the park hours did not change during this time.) MK was not a 9 at all during July 16-20th.

 

[DisneyJoe]

If the info isn't correct, why pay the $10?

You sound like someone who would be very upset if they subscribed to a pay feature of weather.com and they predicted the weather incorrectly.

Its a PREDICTION and a TOURING GUIDE - neither is guaranteed to be 100% accurate.

I know many people who have been greatly helped by their service. I am a fan.

 

[kbmum]

I was in Disney from June 28 to July 8 (during the Buy 4 Get 3 Free promo). Crowds were lighter than I have ever seen them at that time of year, and almost all of my trips have been around the Fourth of July. We walked on (and I do mean walked on) all of the E-ticket rides at all four parks. I certainly didn't complain!

We went to MK one morning when it opened at 9 a.m. We went on Buzz (twice), Astro Orbiters (twice -- when there's no line, why not?), Tomorrowland Speedway, tea cups, Snow White, Philharmagic, Small World, and had a truly excellent, unrushed meet and greet with Alice and the White Rabbit. We left for lunch at noon! We had pretty much the same experience at every park for the entire trip. We do avoid EMH, so I think that helps.

 

[3fordisney]

Did you read their many blog posts? They answer questions like this there repeatedly.

I did read it and it didn't answer it. It does not follow logic. If the right hand says there is a steady decline in attandance and the left hand says the crowds jump, how does this answer the question? The park hours did not change during this time so that doesn't answer the question either.

I find it funny how its not being answered other than read their blog. I find it funnier how Len, the person everyone points to as the contact for the site, didn't take the time to answer the straightforward question either. Its amazing how no one will say why it was boosted up during this time frame. Maybe the massive computers and fancy software they use to come up with this info crashed and they had to go to using fortune cookies:lol:!