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Touring Plans Crowd Calendar Experts
- Thread starter rudyjr13
- Start date
BeachClubNut
New Member
I subscribe to that site have for 2 years, last 3 visits found the parks extremly crowded when there calander says otherwise. Also there line waits way off. I actually don't know if they guess or how accurate there predictions are. The one thing I do know is when I arrive and the park is jammed and they state its a 5 or 6 I have to think they are 100 percent guessing. I honestly don't go by them anymore as they have been consistently way off last 3 visits.
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Thanks for the quick reply Len. The thing that was curious to me and why I decided to post here was because the day before and the day after are predicted to be level 1 crowd level and I was trying to figure out why it would spike up mid week, then down on Thursday, then back on Friday for the Christmas/New years upward trend. One would think if Tuesday is a 1 and Thursday is a 1, that Wednesday would be on the lower end as well until you get to the weekend with schools starting vacation.
I did notice that MK was at a 3 on the Wed. so still pretty darn good. Love the Touringplans site and book.
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Sorry to hear that. I find the site and books very informative. I'll be sure to test out the 1 crowd level prediction a few times when I'm there.
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BeachClubNut
New Member
There information and books are great, we just question the calender due to our experiences.
Ill be there next week, hoping its accurate, have it on my Droid so Ill be able to see and definitely keep a record this time as we use to always rely on it, always going when its 5 or under but latly........ unfortunately have been disappointed. I would love to know if they actually have access to ticket sales, booking or if its just guesses based on trends. Last March we arrived only to have the calender go from 7, 8s to 10s as we were there. We were prepared to deal with 7s and 8s but 10s were misery. This is why we tend to think its based on a lot of guesswork so I guess we should take it with a grain of salt and not really base our trips soley on that. We shall test next weeks accuracy and see. Just hope the weather is accurate and the expected warm up is right on!
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There is a very detailed section in the 2011 guide book where they go into how they collect their data. From their website:
"Our Unofficial Guide researchers have collected wait times in Walt Disney World for over a decade. Thanks to our mobile app, we get hundreds of wait times daily from our fabulous users. With this data, Fred Hazelton, our professional statistician, updates this calendar every week."
So one thing that can kill their predictions is if people are not reporting the wait times and/or they are reporting inaccurate wait times. I believe they take 2009 data to predict 2010 on the same day of the week while including other factors such as discounts, special events, park hours, etc. I believe Len, who replied above, is one of the people that runs the site so he could add to this discussion as well.
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Stevek
Well-Known Member
My advice, take the numbers they provide with a grain of salt. Nobody can accurately predict what will really happen in the parks. We were there last week (11/28-12/5) and the crowds were insane at times while touring plans said the crowds should be very light. Monday at the Magic Kingdom was nuts as was Saturday 12/5. Only Animal Kingdom was manageable.
Cast members were perplexed as well...nobody could figure out why the parks were so crowded.
Cast members were perplexed as well...nobody could figure out why the parks were so crowded.
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RonAnnArbor
Well-Known Member
The Touring Plans crowd estimates haven't been accurate since June...
In general - they take averages of the crowds in the X-number of years prior to the current predictions.
Well guess what -- people started traveling again, and the crowds are way way higher than what they have estimated for this year....
I was there during a "dead week" this fall, crowd estimate 2, and it was more like a 7 in reality.
I was there during a "4" week in mid-November, and it was more like an 8 in reality.
I would expect that the crowd estimates are about two to four levels below where the real crowd numbers have been this year.
Single day spikes in touring plans are, again, based on a few things -- historical data, things like special parades, events, etc on that particular day...tapings of shows, last day of FOod and Wine festival, big guest at Epcot candlelight procession, etc....
I have NOT found the books and estimates to be terribly misleading -- but the numbers have been off this year. Keep that in mind while planning.
In general - they take averages of the crowds in the X-number of years prior to the current predictions.
Well guess what -- people started traveling again, and the crowds are way way higher than what they have estimated for this year....
I was there during a "dead week" this fall, crowd estimate 2, and it was more like a 7 in reality.
I was there during a "4" week in mid-November, and it was more like an 8 in reality.
I would expect that the crowd estimates are about two to four levels below where the real crowd numbers have been this year.
Single day spikes in touring plans are, again, based on a few things -- historical data, things like special parades, events, etc on that particular day...tapings of shows, last day of FOod and Wine festival, big guest at Epcot candlelight procession, etc....
I have NOT found the books and estimates to be terribly misleading -- but the numbers have been off this year. Keep that in mind while planning.
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lentesta
Premium Member
I'm not sure if everyone knows this, but when we collect data in the parks every day, we go back and calculate what the actual crowd levels were. Then we post the actual crowd levels along with our predictions on the website for everyone to see. An example is below from 29 November, the most recent actual vs predicted day available. (It's messy because of cut-and-paste; let me know if it's unreadable.)
We also calculate our overall accuracy since we introduced the new crowd calendar in early June, 2010, as well as how accurate are our "best" and "avoid" park recommendations.
Since June, 2010, our crowd estimates for all of WDW are within 1.1 points of our predictions, with a slight bias (0.2 points) towards underestimating crowds. For the MK it's +/- 1.0 with a 0.2 point bias towards overestimating; Epcot and the Studios is +/- 1.6 with a 0.4 overestimate bias (Epcot) and 0.6 underestimate (Studios). The AK estimates are within 1.1 with a 0.1 point overestimate bias.
All of those actual numbers are, on average, close enough to the predictions that you'd be hard pressed to tell the difference; I don't think the average person on vacation would notice anything most of the time.
In addition, we're the only crowd calendar which makes available our actual performance against our predictions. You might want to ask why others with crowd calendars don't do this. (Of course, we compare other crowd calendars' predictions to actual park conditions. None are as accurate as ours.)
To be sure, there are days when we're way off on an individual park. Last Friday at the Magic Kingdom, for example, we predicted a 1.6 crowd and it was more like a 7. (We're looking at why.)
As far as we can tell, then, to say that the predictions have been consistently wrong is simply not true. Of course, we're open to feedback. RonAnnArbor, you claim the calendar hasn't been accurate since June. Can you provide your data and methodology for how you determined that? That's a pretty big claim, and it contradicts the tens of thousands of pieces of data we've collected. Since we've made our data and methodology publicly available, I'd love to see how you collected your data and compare your research to ours.
Thanks!
Len
We also calculate our overall accuracy since we introduced the new crowd calendar in early June, 2010, as well as how accurate are our "best" and "avoid" park recommendations.
Since June, 2010, our crowd estimates for all of WDW are within 1.1 points of our predictions, with a slight bias (0.2 points) towards underestimating crowds. For the MK it's +/- 1.0 with a 0.2 point bias towards overestimating; Epcot and the Studios is +/- 1.6 with a 0.4 overestimate bias (Epcot) and 0.6 underestimate (Studios). The AK estimates are within 1.1 with a 0.1 point overestimate bias.
All of those actual numbers are, on average, close enough to the predictions that you'd be hard pressed to tell the difference; I don't think the average person on vacation would notice anything most of the time.
In addition, we're the only crowd calendar which makes available our actual performance against our predictions. You might want to ask why others with crowd calendars don't do this. (Of course, we compare other crowd calendars' predictions to actual park conditions. None are as accurate as ours.)
To be sure, there are days when we're way off on an individual park. Last Friday at the Magic Kingdom, for example, we predicted a 1.6 crowd and it was more like a 7. (We're looking at why.)
As far as we can tell, then, to say that the predictions have been consistently wrong is simply not true. Of course, we're open to feedback. RonAnnArbor, you claim the calendar hasn't been accurate since June. Can you provide your data and methodology for how you determined that? That's a pretty big claim, and it contradicts the tens of thousands of pieces of data we've collected. Since we've made our data and methodology publicly available, I'd love to see how you collected your data and compare your research to ours.
Thanks!
Len
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ShookieJones
We need time for things to happen.
Len thanks for all your hard work. I've been a member for 3 years and the crowd calendar (and tp.com in general) hasn't let me down yet.
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BeachClubNut
New Member
Len,
I also subscribe. I guess as far as my data goes its the holy ____*& factor when I arrive on a 1 and find myself saying Holy ____*$ where did all these people come from I know its not a 1, Its a crude data method but does work. Anyways I was caught in the parks around 3/12/10 only to find the calander changed to 10s after planning for less. I treat it as a gamble each time now as Disney incentives can change crowds fast. Ill be back Feb 1 - 9 will check the numbers again. Last Saturday my wife and I found Magic Kingdom impossible. Not sure how accurate it was that day all I can say is we could hardly walk. Again appreciate the data but we feel there is a bit of a gamble each trip. We always hope the numbers are right on but know its impossible. I will keep subscribing as a basis of what to hope for as its not just the calander we find useful.
I also subscribe. I guess as far as my data goes its the holy ____*& factor when I arrive on a 1 and find myself saying Holy ____*$ where did all these people come from I know its not a 1, Its a crude data method but does work. Anyways I was caught in the parks around 3/12/10 only to find the calander changed to 10s after planning for less. I treat it as a gamble each time now as Disney incentives can change crowds fast. Ill be back Feb 1 - 9 will check the numbers again. Last Saturday my wife and I found Magic Kingdom impossible. Not sure how accurate it was that day all I can say is we could hardly walk. Again appreciate the data but we feel there is a bit of a gamble each trip. We always hope the numbers are right on but know its impossible. I will keep subscribing as a basis of what to hope for as its not just the calander we find useful.
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