Theme Park attendance numbers

[Duckberg]

The Walt Disney Company stated last year that they will no longer be releasing attendance numbers for any of their theme parks. Any "official" report which claims to post said numbers of Disney theme parks from 2010 forward is only issuing their opinions and not actual attendance.

With GAS soon to be $5.00+ a gallon I'm not surprised they will not release these figures. Disney trying to maintain or increase park attendance with other big inflation domino's falling this year is going to be THE struggle in 2010 & beyond!

 

[RSoxNo1]

When you don't have access to the company's internal figures, it's nothing more than opinion mixed with best-guess-timation. TEA/ERA can be wrong, off, or skewed by +/- one million in any direction. Anyone who accepts their results as the closest possible gospel are probably the same ones who use TP.com, or the like. Claiming to know ride wait times and calendar predictions based on previous dates is wrong on so many levels. Pass performance is not indicative of future results. Again, in an industry with millions of guests spending billions of dollars, either you're spot on or you're dead wrong. But if TP.com and TEA/ERA can make a business off people's gullibility, so be it.

That said, I'll play the game. According to the "industry," in 2009 IoA had 4.5 million attendees. In 2010, thanks to Harry Potter, that grew by 36%. Heck, let's spot 'em another 14% just to be nice guys. So with a 50% bump, IoA saw 6.75 million attendees in 2010.

Meanwhile, again, according to the "industry," DAK -- the least attended park in WDW -- had 9.1 million in 2009, and we can assume at least the same for 2010. So even with WWoHP, Universal still didn't come anywhere near Disney.

Here endeth the lesson.

They are by no means precise, but they aren't "dead wrong" either. The information we're looking for isn't publicly available so these sources are often the best alternative. You are right that they are estimates, but I'm not sure where you're getting your +/- 1,000,000 guests estimates. That's a huge margin of error.

 

[Orange Bird]

When you don't have access to the company's internal figures, it's nothing more than opinion mixed with best-guess-timation. TEA/ERA can be wrong, off, or skewed by +/- one million in any direction. Anyone who accepts their results as the closest possible gospel are probably the same ones who use TP.com, or the like.

ERA’s best-guess-timation suggested a 27,000 acre site at the intersection of U.S. 192 and I-4 as the best place to construct the Florida Project (considering the climate, projected growth of highways and projected growth of population). Walt Disney agreed with their opinion and based his company’s single biggest investment ever on their best-guess-timation. I’m not sure if Walt ever used TP.com.

Claiming to know ride wait times and calendar predictions based on previous dates is wrong on so many levels. Pass performance is not indicative of future results. Again, in an industry with millions of guests spending billions of dollars, either you're spot on or you're dead wrong. But if TP.com and TEA/ERA can make a business off people's gullibility, so be it.

I’m not sure what ride wait times or calendar predictions have to do with the work ERA does, so I’ve got nothing here.

That said, I'll play the game. According to the "industry," in 2009 IoA had 4.5 million attendees. In 2010, thanks to Harry Potter, that grew by 36%. Heck, let's spot 'em another 14% just to be nice guys. So with a 50% bump, IoA saw 6.75 million attendees in 2010.

Ok. What does Harry Potter and IOA have to do with the credibility of TEA/ERA?

Meanwhile, again, according to the "industry," DAK -- the least attended park in WDW -- had 9.1 million in 2009, and we can assume at least the same for 2010. So even with WWoHP, Universal still didn't come anywhere near Disney.

That’s nice. Since we are stating random figures, I’d like to say that the Dow Jones industrial average rose 1 point, or less than 0.1%, to close at 12,381 today. The S&P 500 slipped about 4 points, or 0.3% to 1,324. The Nasdaq Composite sank 9 points, or 0.3%, to 2,771.

Here endeth the lesson.

I pray thee take my leave from me, good sir.

 

[Orange Bird]

The Walt Disney Company stated last year that they will no longer be releasing attendance numbers for any of their theme parks. Any "official" report which claims to post said numbers of Disney theme parks from 2010 forward is only issuing their opinions and not actual attendance.

Since it's 1986, I'm going to EPCOT Center and ride Horizons and World of Motion. And I'm going to see Captain EO! Wait, scratch that last one.

 

[echovictor]

Anyone who accepts their results as the closest possible gospel are probably the same ones who use TP.com, or the like. Claiming to know ride wait times and calendar predictions based on previous dates is wrong on so many levels.

But if TP.com and TEA/ERA can make a business off people's gullibility, so be it.

I’ve been duped! Do you mean that the TP gods can’t actually speak to the spirit of Walt and tell me the exact number of seconds that I will spend in line at IASW on my next visit in 2025? I can’t believe I wasted my $8. Oh wait, I forgot, I actually enjoy playing the crowd numbers, the blog, and Bricker’s beautiful pictures. Maybe it was my subscription to horseracing digest and their predictions that I’m supposed to be complaining about.

 

[Brian Noble]

only because of the impact the new Harry Potter area is not as great as people are making it out to be

I guess it depends on what you define as "great impact". But, a 20% increase in annual paid attendance across both parks, for a single new land that was only open half the year, sounds like "great impact" to me.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/TRAVEL/04/06/wizarding.harry.potter.orlando/

I'll bet you New Fantasyland doesn't hit that number---in percentage terms or in absolute numbers. (A 20% increase for Uni represents about 2M new guests---MK drew about 17.25M in 2009. I doubt that it will be 19.25M in 2012.)

 

[RSoxNo1]

I guess it depends on what you define as "great impact". But, a 20% increase in annual paid attendance across both parks, for a single new land that was only open half the year, sounds like "great impact" to me.

http://www.cnn.com/2011/TRAVEL/04/06/wizarding.harry.potter.orlando/

I'll bet you New Fantasyland doesn't hit that number---in percentage terms or in absolute numbers. (A 20% increase for Uni represents about 2M new guests---MK drew about 17.25M in 2009. I doubt that it will be 19.25M in 2012.)

The impact of Harry Potter is hard to evaluate considering how much the park attendance dropped in the years leading up to it. I think we won't have a true understanding of its impact until we see the attendance numbers for 2010 and 2011. I show that IOA's attendance peaked in 2004 at 6.3 million (I'm missing a 2002 and 2000's #s), but in 2009 the attendance at IOA was only 4.627 million. If they're back up to their peak level all it has really accomplished is righting the ship.

More importantly, in 2004 Universal and IOA made up 20.48% of the market compared to 16.00% in 2009. These numbers are the ones I'd be interested in seeing when the 2010 report comes out.

 

[Brian Noble]

Well Disney certainly did not produce anywhere near the same gains, so it is safe to say that it was not just economic recovery or a bounce back in Orlando area tourism.

 

[flavious27]

The 2010 report isn't out yet. I have some of the numbers on my home PC, but if anyone has any of the TEA/ERA reports saved it would be appreciated.

Edit: I have the 06, 07 and 08 reports saved. Does anyone have others?

I have gotten the numbers for IOA through the years

 

[RSoxNo1]

I have gotten the numbers for IOA through the years

These are the IOA numbers I have, can you verify?

2009: 4,627,000
2008: 5,297,000
2007: 5,430,000
2006: 5,300,000
2005: 5,760,000
2004: 6,300,000
2003: 6,000,000
2002:
2001: 5,500,000

 

[flavious27]

These are the IOA numbers I have, can you verify?

2009: 4,627,000
2008: 5,297,000
2007: 5,430,000
2006: 5,300,000
2005: 5,760,000
2004: 6,300,000
2003: 6,000,000
2002:
2001: 5,500,000

Lets see, we may have a difference, it is really hard to get the numbers so many years later.

2000 6 mil
2001 5.55
2002 6.1
2003 6.1
2004 6.3
2005 5.76
2006 5.3
2007 5.43
2008 5.29
2009 4.5
2010 6.1 (estimate)

 

[AEfx]

I guess it depends on what you define as "great impact". But, a 20% increase in annual paid attendance across both parks, for a single new land that was only open half the year, sounds like "great impact" to me.

And we can't forget about merchandising.

From what I've heard the merchandising $$ is astronomical - and who's worth more, someone who comes in and buys a ticket and spends $20, or someone who comes in, buys a ticket, and spends $300 (easy, especially if you have a couple of kids you are buying wands for, etc).

Do the folks who calculate success, that figure means a heck of a lot more now to Universal than the actual turnstile numbers, I'd guess.

 

[Brian Noble]

Indeed. I hear from People Who Know that the biggest problem in the Potterverse is the logistics of restocking merch overnight...

 

[RSoxNo1]

Indeed. I hear from People Who Know that the biggest problem in the Potterverse is the logistics of restocking merch overnight...

That's a good problem to have.

 

[flavious27]

That's a good problem to have.

Except for the employees .