The science of picking a time to go to WDW

[Takeitforgranite]

I've been to WDW at different times of the year, covering 5 different months. I put a lot of research into planning when to go, as well as what we do at the parks. The most recent trip was in mid-January, and we came away pretty disappointed with crowd sizes and daily ride breakdowns. For the first time ever, I just didn't feel the magic, and I felt like all the work I put in was worthless.

I've always put trust in those crowd calendars, but I don't really know how accurate they are...or how they work exactly. Are they just based off of "turn style" data, wait times, or some arbitrary feeling of crown volume?

I ask because I have come to the conclusion that there really isn't a great time to go anymore. When actual crowd levels are lower, they just close the parks earlier and reduce the volume on certain rides. So, if you look at things averaged out over the course of the shorter day, then typical fall is probably no better than typical summer.

Has anyone else come to the same conclusion?

 

[Tom]

The crowd levels have changed quite a bit. Partly because of DVC, which brings more emtpy-nesters to the parks during the former off seasons. Partly because many schools are changing to the "balanced" schedule, meaning families can take longer trips over Spring Break, Fall Break and Winter Break. And, in general, attendance is climbing overall.

It's hard to find a time when the place is dead - but you went during one of the "best" times.

Sites like Touring Plans have years and years of historic data - collected by their own employees and through user submitted data - which they use to predict crowd levels at any given time. And given that the crowds are rarely a "1" in real life anymore, their scale has taken on a more relative approach.

I can't explain it as well as @lentesta can, but that's it in a nutshell.

 

[CP_alum08]

This has been the "conclusion" for a while now. There is no slow season anymore. Partly because of what was mentioned above and because Disney realized there was a lot of money to be made in the off months by offering promotions. Also, every single guide book, planning site, etc., tells you to go during the "off-season" and if all those people reading those things start going during those times obviously the parks get more crowded.

Of all the changes at WDW in the past decade this is the worst in my opinion. Not having kids gave us the luxury to go whenever we wanted now that luxury doesn't mean so much.

 

[Weather_Lady]

Each crowd calendar website/book usually has a section where they explain the basis of, and reasoning behind, their calculations. (Also, some, like the yourfirstvisit website, which I tend to favor when it comes to selecting a time to visit, not only look at crowds, but take into account factors like hurricane season, ride refurbs, seasonal events and cost to stay on-site, when recommending particular weeks). For my family, we choose a time to visit based on a combination of factors: school calendar (we don't go during breaks but if a week has some half-days for conferences or something, that helps), weather (we don't mind rain, but we do mind high heat!), pricing season, and crowds. This usually means we're looking at late November, early October, February or late April/early May... but to your point, OP, you are right. Although I still much prefer to go during lower crowd seasons, there is no "best" time to go anymore. WDW is good at guessing crowd levels, too, and changes staffing and ride capacity so that we can all "share" the same waits in line for attractions and food, no matter when we go. Yay for standardization!??!

 

[JIMINYCR]

Yes sometimes those trips can disappoint you. You just cant tell how it will be until you are actually there and see for yourself. I pour over the guides, compare the stats, try to choose the best time but sometimes you still get surprised. I've walked in on supposedly low volume days to find crowded conditions and other heavily rated days to find it much calmer. You just have to be flexible and willing to alter plans to adjust to what you encounter. I look at it that a Disney trip thats not everything I was hoping for is still better than no Disney trip at all.

 

[ninjaprincesst]

It is easy for us, we live in Texas where if you take your kid out of school for vacation it is an unexcused absence and they will fail the semester so we either have to go in July (she has drill team obligations in August) or we can go the week of Thanksgiving. Since I do not like the heat we go in November.

 

[BrerWayne]

I have the My Disney Experience App on my iPhone, and since I am a Disney Geek, if I am having a bad day, or not, I will get on the App to check out the wait times. From what I can see, slow season is dead. Like previous posters have said, Disney looked at when the slow times were and did things like offered discounts on rooms, gave away free dining, or scheduled a marathon or half marathon. Before I had kids, I would always visit in early November or early December. The weather was nice and cool, and I could just about walk on to every ride I wanted to. Not any more. Guess we just have to chalk that up to the good old days.

 

[Master Yoda]

As others have pointed out, the time of back to back weeks of consistently low attendance are gone. Disney has done a very good job of using special events and promotions to fill in nearly all the valleys.

You still have a day or two here or there where the parks are dead and there still are a few periods of lower than average attendance, but I doubt we will ever see a time where a certain calendar week guarantees you that "having the parks to yourself" feeling of years gone by.

 

[JohnD]

I ask because I have come to the conclusion that there really isn't a great time to go anymore.

Has anyone else come to the same conclusion?

Of course there is a great time. I go when there are seasonal events going on. For example, my next trip is May 12-18. I picked that timeframe to take advantage of both the last week of the Flower and Garden festival in Epcot and the first Star Wars Weekend in Hollywood Studios. It is also mid-Spring before the large crowds show up in the summer. My last trip was in early December for Christmas events. The trip prior to that was in October for the Food and Wine Festival and MNSSHP. I get more enjoyment when I can mix in those special activites along with the usual attractions.

Respectfully, your reasoning, though, is counterintuitive. Because WDW is more popular drawing more people means that there is no longer a good time to go. It sounds like the solution is to let Disney not promote the slower times, and not refurb their attractions. Therefore fewer people would want to come making that period of time a good time for you. I agree with Master Yoda in that they are doing a better job of getting guests to come during the traditionally "slower" periods.

 

[DManRightHere]

I've been to WDW at different times of the year, covering 5 different months. I put a lot of research into planning when to go, as well as what we do at the parks. The most recent trip was in mid-January, and we came away pretty disappointed with crowd sizes and daily ride breakdowns. For the first time ever, I just didn't feel the magic, and I felt like all the work I put in was worthless.

I've always put trust in those crowd calendars, but I don't really know how accurate they are...or how they work exactly. Are they just based off of "turn style" data, wait times, or some arbitrary feeling of crown volume?

I ask because I have come to the conclusion that there really isn't a great time to go anymore. When actual crowd levels are lower, they just close the parks earlier and reduce the volume on certain rides. So, if you look at things averaged out over the course of the shorter day, then typical fall is probably no better than typical summer.

Has anyone else come to the same conclusion?

Don't feel bad! No one can tell the future, we can only make guesses based on speculation and historical data.

The well done crowd forecasts use a combination of points.

 

[Worldlover71]

SInce there are now almost always crowds, perhaps a good way to look at it is "What are my priorities and when would be the best or worst time for me to go". If you love the Christmas decorations but hate crowds, you must decide which is more important to you. If you can't take the summer heat but don't want to take the kids out of school you must make another choice. There are still times of year that are less crowded (early September, January, etc.) but they come with compromises (shorter hours, closed rides) and they are not the empty parks they once were.

 

[jlsHouston]

The process for what constitutes a good time to visit WDW has evolved for me...I still love to spend Thanksgiving week there and I am still reluctant to even try Christmas week, but I have certainly changed my view of summer vacations at WDW. Although not sworn off of them, I am avoiding August now because of rain. I discovered the past two years have been "wet" ones for Florida, and I really don't have fun running around in the rain with the kids. Going to try June this year. I also think @JohnD makes a good point that special events really add to the WDW experience. I thoroughly enjoy F&G, F&W, and Star Wars.
Although I am a crowd hater I have never booked a WDW trip expecting low crowds because I am always going over a holiday or special event. If the crowds start bearing down on me at the parks, I either switch parks or I head to the resort...I am a HUGE resort fan