The Science of Crowd Prediction at WDW

[romiti]

Hey everyone!

I've been a long-time lurker, seldom poster for a few years now, and with my next trip approaching (8/25-9/2), I've decided to ask for your valuable input.

It seems as if everyone has their own way of determining the best time to visit WDW, and most of the time, crowd levels are an important factor in making that decision. Virtually every thread regarding this has mentioned the Touring Plans website, which seems to be a great resource for planning a trip, so I feel the need to mention it here: http://www.touringplans.com/tp2/UG2_index.php?PageID=14

SO, one additional way I've tried to monitor crowd patterns (at least for on-site visitors) is based on booking availability through the online reservation system at the official website. When I see an abundance of rooms still available at all categories (especially standard rooms), I tend to think that crowds may be on the light side.....

However, I know that it's nearly impossible to predict crowds at WDW consistently and accurately from day to day, since off-site visitors make up a large portion of guests in the parks. My question for all of you is: have you devised similar methods of crowd prediction, and if so, have they worked?

Thanks! :wave:

 

[napnet]

There really is no way since it seems to change daily depending on factors like weather, temp and when holidays are. The link you gave is great, i also use http://wdw.parkcrowds.com/

 

[RonAnnArbor]

I think that touringplans.com and his book (The Unofficial Guide to WDW) are absolutely THE best general estimates of crowds at the World.

I have always found them to be absolutely accurate in the many years of using them. And following the plans works.

Estimating using any other method is really not worth one's time.

 

[sydsmom1997]

hey romiti! I like yourself am a longtime lurker and seldom poster. I will be traveling to WDW the same week that you are. Many people have told me that traditionally that week is slower due to the fact that many southern schools are back in attendence. Here in NY our schools are back in session after labor day. It has been said that the temperature that week is usually much more brutal, and of course this is hurricane season. What were your findings about the crowds for that week? Is this info I have been given on the mark? Just curious, because we normally like to head down in February. This will be our first August trip. Thanks! :wave:

 

[romiti]

Hey sydsmom1997!

Like you, I've also heard that crowds tend to be a little lighter during the last week of August, due to schools being back in session. We've visited in August about 4 times before, but never this late in the month. The weather is tough, but we found it manageable if you take the right approach. Obviously, when you run into a hurricane (as we did a couple years ago), there isn't much you can do, but normally a trip back to the hotel to cool down during the day can really do wonders when you're trying to beat the heat.

As far as my speculative research for the last week of Aug. goes, it seems that a good amount of rooms are still available according to the online booking system on the official website. Like I said earlier, I'm not sure if this is a reliable way to predict crowd patterns -- but I know that in years past, we have had a tough time getting a standard room at WL (or at any of the popular resorts) during the middle of August.

Touringplans.com also seems to predict moderate crowds during that week, but I guess only time will tell for sure. Have a great trip and maybe I'll see you there!

 

[kennygman]

With the thought of hurricanes in Aug-Sept at the world, I came across this...

You can see the obvious growth and decline of hurricanes per decade here. Looking at it historically, it does look like it is still in an upturn.

 

[lentesta]

Hey romiti,

Thanks for visiting our site, and for using the crowd calendar. We've looked at using hotel availabilty, too, but it's not as good as some other criteria. (In fact, we've got a database of almost 80 million pieces of hotel room data collected over the past year.)

Two things to remember:

1) We actually tell you how accurate our predictions have been in the past. Take a look at the links to the Crowd Blog for all the gory details. (Short answer: our predictions run +/- 8 minutes or so.)

2) Under normal circumstances, the ratio of onsite to offsite guests should remain fairly constant. (I know that Disney occasionally offers specials, but clearly other resorts can match those as needed.) Put another way: every day you've got many tens of thousands of people making independent choices. You'd expect those decisions to break roughly the same way (give or take) every day.

Let me know if none of this makes sense. I don't claim to know everything about how the crowd predictions are made (that's why we have a statistician), but I know who to ask.

Thanks again!

Len

 

[GenerationX]

Len - half my posts contain a link to that page. Thanks for the great resource.

As a side note, Disney just reduced by one hour the MK's hours for most of the week of August 7th. Would this prompt an adjustment to your estimates?

 

[Lucky]

The free dining plan may mean a different forecasting model is needed for late-August to October. With free dining for people staying at Disney resorts, a higher percentage of people at the parks will be staying at a resort. Resort occupancy would cause an overestimate of crowds at the parks, relative to months when free dining is not in effect.

 

[kennygman]

I didn't know Len was a member of this board. I bought the book and use the touringplans.com site. Are you going to make a plan for BB & TL? Have you updated the MK since new pirates and AK since EE as far as touring goes. We're going 8/14-8/22.

 

[lentesta]

GenerationX, yes, park hours are one of the key components to estimating crowd levels. So if Disney's changed August hours, it's possibly an indication that they're not seeing the hotel reservations they expect for those times. I would be worried about that because it may indicate things like rising fuel prices are starting to affect people's travel plans more now than six months ago, when Disney originally set the park hours. (One alternate explanation is that they're trying to see how few hours they need to run the park and still charge $67 without making people mad. I'd lean toward the former, since I'd assume Disney has a really good grasp of how to separate people and money when they're in the parks. Y'all ain't gonna tell me I'm wrong on that, right? )

Lucky, it would take many thousands of people acting on the dining plan offer every day to significantly affect the crowd levels at any one park. My guess is that Disney does not get that kind of response to that offer. If I recall reading Disney's 8-K filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, promo offers typically boost their resort occupancy levels in the range of 3 to 5 percent. That would increase a 65 minute wait at Space Mountain to 67 minutes. If they got, say, a 10% increase, they'd be so happy that C/Ms would be throwing food at you as you walked in the parks.

I don't think they get more of a boost from free dining because dining requires a 3-day minimum stay, and parents are going to be reluctant to let their kid miss school just for free grub. Again, just my opinion on that.

Kennygman, yes, plans have been updated. And we've got someone at BB and TL today. (Incidentally, I'm told both have closed today because of capacity.)

Hope this helps! Thanks again.

Len

 

[animay]

Lucky, it would take many thousands of people acting on the dining plan offer every day to significantly affect the crowd levels at any one park. My guess is that Disney does not get that kind of response to that offer. If I recall reading Disney's 10-K filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, promo offers typically boost their resort occupancy levels in the range of 3 to 5 percent. That would increase a 65 minute wait at Space Mountain to 67 minutes. If they got, say, a 10% increase, they'd be so happy that C/Ms would be throwing food at you as you walked in the parks.

I don't think they get more of a boost from free dining because dining requires a 3-day minimum stay, and parents are going to be reluctant to let their kid miss school just for free grub. Again, just my opinion on that.

Len, thank you for this sensible explanation of the Dining Plan offer. I've been worried about what kind of crowds we'd see based on this offer despite it being a normally slow time of year. This makes a lot of sense and has me looking forward to our trip even more.

Plus, the image of C/Ms throwing food at people walking in the gates has me laughing out loud every time I read it. :lol:

 

[nyy102]

Having usually vacationed during late August/early September, I can attest to the fact that crowd levels will be lower, and I generally attribute that to children being back in school. When I went to WDW 3 years ago during this time period, the only real waits were for major attractions, like the mountains or ToT. When I went to DL last year during this time period, it was more of the same as WDW years before. This does not apply for Disney, as I also noticed this for USF and IOA 3 years ago and SFMM and USH last year. During this time period, crowds just always tend to be bearable.

 

[SorcererMickey]

I'm partial to Tourguidemike.com He's been doing VIP tours for a long time and figured out when to go on which rides, and what parks to visit each day. .. IMHO It's worth the $20 or so for the subscription.

 

[Lucky]

Lentesta,
Thanks for the information. That's the best of both worlds, getting the Dining Plan for free but without the promo significantly adding to the park crowds.

 

[lentesta]

Glad to help.

Incidentally, it was Disney's 8-K filing with the SEC that shows resort & park increases. I've edited my post to include that correction.Here's the most recent - it's interesting reading. You'll note that for the quarter ending April 30 2006, resort & park revenue was up by 7%.

Disney was running the 50th celebration promo, and there was some free dining available, too. Even assuming the worst-case scenario where free dining accounted for the entire increase, that would only increase a 65 minute wait time to just under 70. And free dining almost certainly didn't account for the entire 7% increase - I'm sure Disney's paying their marketing folks for more than that. Ha!

Len