I am likely to be announcing the biggest news/rumors I will ever make in this thread (at least, I hope so). As a preface to this information, please remember that this information should be treated as RUMOR. I cannot verify that any of the following information is true in part or in whole. You should not make any business decisions based on the information provided herein. While this information has some details of a political nature, its required to even post what is going on... please do not discuss the political aspects of this news in this thread.
The last 24 hours has been eventful for Disney. While COVID cases in Florida are problematic to follow, Disney has been using the death rate to best gauge public safety. Within the past 24 hours, those numbers have reached levels that put staying open for the Walt Disney World Resort in meaningful jeopardy. Closing WDW is immensely painful for the company, and Josh D'Amaro's main job at this point is to keep the resort running... but there could be a situation in which the resort simply can't remain active to guests. At this point, it appears increasing deaths in Florida are due to - and increasing due to - nursing home infiltration. Should that change, Disney could conceivably close the resort OR resort back to the Secure Circuit plan that would involve closing everything except Magic Kingdom and the MK resorts. A push in that direction comes from the concern that even with their most restrictive capacity ceilings in place, some parks simply can't generate enough demand to warrant staying open (except for the purpose of demonstrating that they can be open for stockholders).
To add further to the company's woes, in the past 24 hours there was a major breach of security at Twitter. While the news media is mostly focusing on a bitcoin scheme that was part of the Twitter hack, Disney (and other companies) are much more concerned about the seemingly true issue that hackers had access to all Direct Messages on the platform for verified accounts. I am told that a small minority of individuals within the company AND linked to the company through various current and former projects may have had information within those Direct Messages that would be damaging. Disney Legal has advised individuals who may have had damaging information in their Direct Messages to delete their Twitter accounts, and at least one individual of significant stature has elected to do so. There is real fear in Burbank that hackers have information about the company, about individuals within the company, etc, which would be particularly unpleasant to have released into the public sphere.
But it still gets worse... also within the past 24 hours, the Trump administration has dropped the hammer on the Walt Disney Company. First, there was an executive order in regards to Hong Kong which can absolutely affect Disney employees and Disney company plans. Attorneys for the company are currently reading through the executive order and seeking guidance from the Trump administration as to how the company can avoid seizure of property due to potentially aiding in the harming of Hong Kong citizens' democratic rights via indirect means. Because of the broad and non-specific language in the executive order, Hong Kong Disney may stay closed indefinitely, regardless of the COVID situation there. Furthermore, in a speech on July 16th, Attorney General Barr made headlines with a speech in which he disclosed the number of Chinese Communist Party officials working in Shanghai Disney management, including the number who have communist insignia on their desks. This sent a ripple through the Disney Company as they realized that US Intelligence has inside information about their Shanghai operations, and are confident enough to release that information. This puts the company in an exceedingly difficult place: stray from China's demands and everything can be taken like in the NBA situation... act in China's interests and the United States Justice Department may now come calling.
Numbers inside the company now project that cash reserves could hit as low as 6 billion by the end of September, with the possibility of this pandemic situation going into mid 2021. This is an unsustainable path. With all of the previously disclosed information provided, I can now provide insight as to what is driving a wedge between Chapek and Iger. Whereas Iger is interested in his legacy and protecting it at all costs, Chapek is a numbers guy. And Chapek is proving to be formidable in protecting himself from being the scapegoat he might have been if he had allowed it. Against the wishes of Iger, a plan is being developed inside the halls that Eisner built which would allow for Disney to sell and divest its interests in the Shanghai and Hong Kong resorts in a preemptive move to avoid losing them outright due to a possible cold war between the US and China. It is the Red Button Option. In that situation, Disney would use the sale of Shanghai and Hong Kong rights, while maintaining a licensing agreement for IP a la the OLC situation, in order to generate extra cash for a possible extended COVID world where Disney continues to be deprived of revenue streams. At this point the Red Button Option is still in its infancy as a strategy in conceptualization, but it can quickly be moved into actionable state if situations continue to deteriorate. Going forward with the Red Button Option is fraught with difficulty... not the least of which being that Iger might resign in protest.
As for Splash Mountain and other frivolous projects, the pendulum has begun to shift inside the company. More information to come at a later date. Power seems to be shifting from certain factions towards an "all hands on deck, save the financials" mode. It's about time.
The last 24 hours has been eventful for Disney. While COVID cases in Florida are problematic to follow, Disney has been using the death rate to best gauge public safety. Within the past 24 hours, those numbers have reached levels that put staying open for the Walt Disney World Resort in meaningful jeopardy. Closing WDW is immensely painful for the company, and Josh D'Amaro's main job at this point is to keep the resort running... but there could be a situation in which the resort simply can't remain active to guests. At this point, it appears increasing deaths in Florida are due to - and increasing due to - nursing home infiltration. Should that change, Disney could conceivably close the resort OR resort back to the Secure Circuit plan that would involve closing everything except Magic Kingdom and the MK resorts. A push in that direction comes from the concern that even with their most restrictive capacity ceilings in place, some parks simply can't generate enough demand to warrant staying open (except for the purpose of demonstrating that they can be open for stockholders).
To add further to the company's woes, in the past 24 hours there was a major breach of security at Twitter. While the news media is mostly focusing on a bitcoin scheme that was part of the Twitter hack, Disney (and other companies) are much more concerned about the seemingly true issue that hackers had access to all Direct Messages on the platform for verified accounts. I am told that a small minority of individuals within the company AND linked to the company through various current and former projects may have had information within those Direct Messages that would be damaging. Disney Legal has advised individuals who may have had damaging information in their Direct Messages to delete their Twitter accounts, and at least one individual of significant stature has elected to do so. There is real fear in Burbank that hackers have information about the company, about individuals within the company, etc, which would be particularly unpleasant to have released into the public sphere.
But it still gets worse... also within the past 24 hours, the Trump administration has dropped the hammer on the Walt Disney Company. First, there was an executive order in regards to Hong Kong which can absolutely affect Disney employees and Disney company plans. Attorneys for the company are currently reading through the executive order and seeking guidance from the Trump administration as to how the company can avoid seizure of property due to potentially aiding in the harming of Hong Kong citizens' democratic rights via indirect means. Because of the broad and non-specific language in the executive order, Hong Kong Disney may stay closed indefinitely, regardless of the COVID situation there. Furthermore, in a speech on July 16th, Attorney General Barr made headlines with a speech in which he disclosed the number of Chinese Communist Party officials working in Shanghai Disney management, including the number who have communist insignia on their desks. This sent a ripple through the Disney Company as they realized that US Intelligence has inside information about their Shanghai operations, and are confident enough to release that information. This puts the company in an exceedingly difficult place: stray from China's demands and everything can be taken like in the NBA situation... act in China's interests and the United States Justice Department may now come calling.
Numbers inside the company now project that cash reserves could hit as low as 6 billion by the end of September, with the possibility of this pandemic situation going into mid 2021. This is an unsustainable path. With all of the previously disclosed information provided, I can now provide insight as to what is driving a wedge between Chapek and Iger. Whereas Iger is interested in his legacy and protecting it at all costs, Chapek is a numbers guy. And Chapek is proving to be formidable in protecting himself from being the scapegoat he might have been if he had allowed it. Against the wishes of Iger, a plan is being developed inside the halls that Eisner built which would allow for Disney to sell and divest its interests in the Shanghai and Hong Kong resorts in a preemptive move to avoid losing them outright due to a possible cold war between the US and China. It is the Red Button Option. In that situation, Disney would use the sale of Shanghai and Hong Kong rights, while maintaining a licensing agreement for IP a la the OLC situation, in order to generate extra cash for a possible extended COVID world where Disney continues to be deprived of revenue streams. At this point the Red Button Option is still in its infancy as a strategy in conceptualization, but it can quickly be moved into actionable state if situations continue to deteriorate. Going forward with the Red Button Option is fraught with difficulty... not the least of which being that Iger might resign in protest.
As for Splash Mountain and other frivolous projects, the pendulum has begun to shift inside the company. More information to come at a later date. Power seems to be shifting from certain factions towards an "all hands on deck, save the financials" mode. It's about time.
