SWGE & Park Capacity

[po1998]

On a somewhat related note to SWGE, what is the "close the gates" park capacity for DHS(not sure if what that number is now will change when SWGE & TSL open)? Obviously SWGE will be overwhelmed with guests for at least two years or more, but by default, so will the rest of the attractions/shows in the park.

Knowing that any new attraction(i.e. reuse of Launch Bay) to help with capacity issues is 24+ months out once the new land opens, what the heck are they going to do if SWGE opens, and the park is overrun with guests...or is the only concern to the WDW head honchos getting guests into the park, and not so much endless long lines(guest satisfaction) once in the park?

 

[Driver]

On a somewhat related note to SWGE, what is the "close the gates" park capacity for DHS(not sure if what that number is now will change when SWGE & TSL open)? Obviously SWGE will be overwhelmed with guests for at least two years or more, but by default, so will the rest of the attractions/shows in the park.

Knowing that any new attraction(i.e. reuse of Launch Bay) to help with capacity issues is 24+ months out once the new land opens, what the heck are they going to do if SWGE opens, and the park is overrun with guests...or is the only concern to the WDW head honchos getting guests into the park, and not so much endless long lines(guest satisfaction) once in the park?

The question of park capacity came up a few days ago in another thread about MK. The answer is management does not like to use hard numbers. It's based on percentages of on site guest in the parks vs off site and AP holders. So in other words it's kinda like saving a seat for ya. They purposely leave some park capacity available for the percentage of people that are not there at the moment. They can gauge this by who is in the park with magic bands, AP's etc. It's not down to the last person there is some fluff built into this. And just an FYI the last time MK had a level 4 hard close was 15 yrs. ago. We did have phase B around the holidays which stops off site folks from returning if they leave. (back to the percentage explanation) And that's not to say phase B is all day sometimes it's only for a few hours. Some will throw hard numbers around but management is tight lipped about numbers.

 

[po1998]

The question of park capacity came up a few days ago in another thread about MK. The answer is management does not like to use hard numbers. It's based on percentages of on site guest in the parks vs off site and AP holders. So in other words it's kinda like saving a seat for ya. They purposely leave some park capacity available for the percentage of people that are not there at the moment. They can gauge this by who is in the park with magic bands, AP's etc. It's not down to the last person there is some fluff built into this. And just an FYI the last time MK had a level 4 hard close was 15 yrs. ago. We did have phase B around the holidays which stops off site folks from returning if they leave. (back to the percentage explanation) And that's not to say phase B is all day sometimes it's only for a few hours. Some will throw hard numbers around but management is tight lipped about numbers.

Are you saying because MK hasn't had a hard close in 15 years, that it won't happen at DHS, when SWGE opens in a much smaller park, with not even half the shows/attractions that MK has?

 

[Driver]

Are you saying because MK hasn't had a hard close in 15 years, that it won't happen at DHS, when SWGE opens in a much smaller park, with not even half the shows/attractions that MK has?

No not at all! I just threw that in there as an FYI , it was an interesting thing that was mentioned during the conversation about crowds and closures during busy times. A fun fact if you will. The manager I spoke with was adamant about how it's based on percentages for all parks. Imagine how upset an onsite guest would be if they could not return to a park. This is what WDW wants to avoid.

 

[djkidkaz]

Gonna be a painful disaster.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Gonna be a painful disaster.

Get ready for paid guaranteed access and paid FP+!!

 

[jaxonp]

Shanghai was the test. I’ve heard Paid fast passes are doing well there. Orlando guests have never had a problem paying more... sure they complain but they still do it. Watch paid FP become the only way offsite guests can get FP while onsite guests get a limited number during their stay for free.

 

[mikejs78]

Shanghai was the test. I’ve heard Paid fast passes are doing well there. Orlando guests have never had a problem paying more... sure they complain but they still do it. Watch paid FP become the only way offsite guests can get FP while onsite guests get a limited number during their stay for free.

I don't think they will change FastPasses to make them a premium thing. They'll keep them as they are, but maybe make some additional FP benefits available at a cost.

 

[jaxonp]

I don't think they will change FastPasses to make them a premium thing. They'll keep them as they are, but maybe make some additional FP benefits available at a cost.

You don’t know the Bobs then.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Between now and Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge's opening, I would expect 7000-8000 additional hourly ride capacity. That's certainly not insignificant, but the Studio Backlot Tour and GMR were both in the 2000-3000 range at times, and Lights Motors Action had a 5000 guest capacity per show (usually 1 or 2) per day. At the very least (and this isn't a new suggestion), GMR should have been upgraded and not replaced with Mickey and Minnie's going elsewhere. Alternatively, a new project should be starting as soon as Toy Story Land opens, but even if that happened, it would be 2-3 years out.

If Mickey and Minnie's was being built elsewhere (still with a 2019 opening date), they could have put GMR down for a year after Toy Story's opening. That would have given them new GMR, two new Star Wars rides, and MaMRR all opening in 2019, all drawing guest demand.

 

[jaxonp]

Between now and Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge's opening, I would expect 7000-8000 additional hourly ride capacity. That's certainly not insignificant, but the Studio Backlot Tour and GMR were both in the 2000-3000 range at times, and Lights Motors Action had a 5000 guest capacity per show (usually 1 or 2) per day. At the very least (and this isn't a new suggestion), GMR should have been upgraded and not replaced with Mickey and Minnie's going elsewhere. Alternatively, a new project should be starting as soon as Toy Story Land opens, but even if that happened, it would be 2-3 years out.

If Mickey and Minnie's was being built elsewhere (still with a 2019 opening date), they could have put GMR down for a year after Toy Story's opening. That would have given them new GMR, two new Star Wars rides, and MaMRR all opening in 2019, all drawing guest demand.

Those closed attractions rarely used their full capacity due to lack of interest. Just because they could pull in the numbers doesn’t mean they did.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Those closed attractions rarely used their full capacity due to lack of interest. Just because they could pull in the numbers doesn’t mean they did.

It's a fair point, but I'd say between Backlot Tour, GMR, and Lights Motors Action they represented at least half of the capacity coming back with Toy Story Land, Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge and Mickey and Minnie's Runaway Railway. It is not simply an increase of 7000-8000 guests per hour in ride capacity.

 

[EricsBiscuit]

Rat in Paris according to Wikipedia gets like 2300 an hour with 6 seats per vehicle. Alcatraz has 8 so it could be as much as 3000 but I doubt that.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Rat in Paris according to Wikipedia gets like 2300 an hour with 6 seats per vehicle. Alcatraz has 8 so it could be as much as 3000 but I doubt that.

Its capacity should be closer, or below, Rat.

 

[mikejs78]

You don’t know the Bobs then.

Yeah I do. Free FastPasses allow them to estimate crowd levels on any given day, which allows them to optimize staffing and not overstaff. If they go paid, they lose that. Free FastPasses is a cost control measure, and not something I think they'd want to give up. Add more premium FastPass options on top of the current free tier, and they get the best of both worlds.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Yeah I do. Free FastPasses allow them to estimate crowd levels on any given day, which allows them to optimize staffing and not overstaff. If they go paid, they lose that. Free FastPasses is a cost control measure, and not something I think they'd want to give up. Add more premium FastPass options on top of the current free tier, and they get the best of both worlds.

No, you don’t get the best of both worlds. Park capacity is inherently fixed. Paid FP means you have to take away standby, or free FP, capacity to have enough slots to actually have something to sell. The only way paid FP would work is if they drastically reduced admission prices, like $50 for a one day ticket low, and then treat the parks like a free to play game where you make your money on a mixture of impulse purchases and the whales. That business model, however, would be very unstable given the volatility of the tourism economy.

 

[trainplane3]

Seeing the title of this thread made me think of two words:

Not enough.

 

[jaxonp]

No you don’t get the best of both worlds. Park capacity is inherently fixed. Paid FP means you have to take away standby, or free FP, capacity to have enough slots to actually have something to sell. The only way paid FP would work is if they drastically reduced admission prices, like $50 for a one day ticket low, and then treat the parks like a free to play game where you make your money on a mixture of impulse purchases and the whales. That business model, however, would be very unstable given the volatility of the tourism economy.

Disney continually finds ways to charge people for more while giving them less. 70+ party nights says this is a solid business model. People thought they were nuts for charging full price to the magic kingdom, closing at 8pm, and then charging enough 100 bucks to get into a halloween party. Was Disney nuts???? They are getting the results they want. If you think they won't explore this avenue of additional income then your in major denial. Bob makes money! Any. Way. Possible. People will absolutely pay for Pandora, Star Wars, GOTG fast passes. They will also complain about it, for sure, but I think it'll have success when given the choice of waiting 4 hours to ride or skipping the line for 10 bucks are the options on the table.

 

[mikejs78]

No you don’t get the best of both worlds. Park capacity is inherently fixed. Paid FP means you have to take away standby, or free FP, capacity to have enough slots to actually have something to sell. The only way paid FP would work is if they drastically reduced admission prices, like $50 for a one day ticket low, and then treat the parks like a free to play game where you make your money on a mixture of impulse purchases and the whales. That business model, however, would be very unstable given the volatility of the tourism economy.

Park capacity is not inherently fixed. On rides with multi-tracks, they often won't open one on low-crowd days, or only open it later in the day. Plus, the free FastPass+ tiers mean that guests are able to spend more time doing other things that cost money- eat, drink, shop. So it's not a zero-sum game. If they charge for FastPass+ then they lose a huge audience that might otherwise engage in other revenue-generating activities.

Paid FastPass+ can work if it is low enough in demand not to have too much of an adverse impact on the free FastPass tier. For example, what they are doing now, possibly expanded. They already give out bonus fastpasses for DVC tours, customer service issues, etc, so there is a reserve of capacity there that they hold back on. What if they, for example, kept FP+ the way it is, but added a paid tier to resort guests that gave you a 90 day booking window and removed the tiers? That wouldn't remove any FastPass capacity, just shift it to prioritize those paying. Or what if they calculated that by adding an extra 5 minutes to every Fastpass+ line, they could add x% capacity and charge for that x%? That's more in line with what I think they will do, not get rid of FastPass+.

Disney continually finds ways to charge people for more while giving them less. 70+ party nights says this is a solid business model. People thought they were nuts for charging full price to the magic kingdom, closing at 8pm, and then charging enough 100 bucks to get into a halloween party. Was Disney nuts???? They are getting the results they want. If you think they won't explore this avenue of additional income then your in major denial. Bob makes money! Any. Way. Possible. People will absolutely pay for Pandora, Star Wars, GOTG fast passes. They will also complain about it, for sure, but I think it'll have success when given the choice of waiting 4 hours to ride or skipping the line for 10 bucks are the options on the table.

I'm 100% convinced they will explore additional options for revenue. And I'm sure people will pay for it. But I think in general it will be additive (i.e. add a 90 day booking window for $$$, remove tiers), not removing the free tier. Yes, that may make some FastPasses a little harder to get (FoP, Star Wars, etc.) for free, but I don't think they'll get rid of the current 30/60 day free FP+ windows....

 

[HauntedPirate]

Disney continually finds ways to charge people for more while giving them less. 70+ party nights says this is a solid business model. People thought they were nuts for charging full price to the magic kingdom, closing at 8pm, and then charging enough 100 bucks to get into a halloween party. Was Disney nuts???? They are getting the results they want. If you think they won't explore this avenue of additional income then your in major denial. Bob makes money! Any. Way. Possible. People will absolutely pay for Pandora, Star Wars, GOTG fast passes. They will also complain about it, for sure, but I think it'll have success when given the choice of waiting 4 hours to ride or skipping the line for 10 bucks are the options on the table.

Again - Create problems with corporate decisions. Monetize the "solution". Problem solved.