Speculation on annual passes?

[rangerbob]

No one cares about the renewals dude. This never ended. We all know this. When people ask, its because they do not currently have rights to an Annual Pass and would like to purchase one.

I know that. I want to buy one myself. That is the reason why my post says they aren't selling new ones. Nobody knows when or if they are going to sell them again except the higher ups that makes the decision. The cast that do the selling only knows what their rules says and can't do anything beyond that.

 

[dovetail65]

I know that. I want to buy one myself. That is the reason why my post says they aren't selling new ones. Nobody knows when or if they are going to sell them again except the higher ups that makes the decision. The cast that do the selling only knows what their rules says and can't do anything beyond that.

I am confident 100% for WDW in Florida it's not matter of "if" but "when" they will sell AP's again.

It makes no sense with 35% capacity for Disney to give out new AP passes for renewal on a case by case basis like they are doing if they were getting rid of AP for good. Now would be the time to just say hey we are ending the AP program and they haven't done that.

I think it makes sense to wait on AP until they are at 100%. Some are guessing it may be sooner , that would be a nice surprise.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I am confident 100% for WDW in Florida it's not matter of "if" but "when" they will sell AP's again.

It makes no sense with 35% capacity for Disney to give out new AP passes for renewal on a case by case basis like they are doing if they were getting rid of AP for good. Now would be the time to just say hey we are ending the AP program and they haven't done that.

I think it makes sense to wait on AP until they are at 100%. Some are guessing it may be sooner , that would be a nice surprise.

I tend to agree...they just “ramped up” capacity again today...

at full capacity...they’ll want the AP backstop for the slow season...and that’s coming soon.

the one caveat is the shuttering of hotels...which goes into the AP math too

they want 100% booked before opened...which is near impossible... so are they content to sell standard tickets to a reduced hotel crowd/occupancy for as long as that takes before opening APs? End of summer does appear to be where the rubber will meet that road.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I know that. I want to buy one myself. That is the reason why my post says they aren't selling new ones. Nobody knows when or if they are going to sell them again except the higher ups that makes the decision. The cast that do the selling only knows what their rules says and can't do anything beyond that.

The current pause gives WDW time to consider any adjustment they might want to make in the details of the AP's they sell. So maybe they will be the same as before, maybe AP's return with a few new options. What if there was an option to get an AP that included extra perk per month? Maybe AP's get to go to one of the special events once a year (after hours party, early entry, or dessert party?, anytime BG for Rise?)

 

[dovetail65]

The current pause gives WDW time to consider any adjustment they might want to make in the details of the AP's they sell. So maybe they will be the same as before, maybe AP's return with a few new options. What if there was an option to get an AP that included extra perk per month? Maybe AP's get to go to one of the special events once a year (after hours party, early entry, or dessert party?, anytime BG for Rise?)

I think the upper tier AP may have the 3 fast pass in some form of current or modified FP or something to that effect.

I would rather have an the option of an AP version with fast pass than a water the water park option myself.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think the upper tier AP may have the 3 fast pass in some form of current or modified FP or something to that effect.

I would rather have an the option of an AP version with fast pass than a water the water park option myself.

The 3 is pointless imho...

but if they wanted to add a fastpass “tier” as part of that rollout...I would be interested.

it makes sense for them...as they can charge an extra amount that does NOTHING for the buyer for most of the year and if they have the park reservations...they have protection from getting swamped by APs on certain days

 

[PaulZ]

Can someone cliff note version for me why getting rid of AP’s in Anaheim does not mean they wouldn’t even think of doing it in Florida? Or is my concern it’s just a matter of time before they do so here justified?

 

[nickys]

Can someone cliff note version for me why getting rid of AP’s in Anaheim does not mean they wouldn’t even think of doing it in Florida? Or is my concern it’s just a matter of time before they do so here justified?

I think the fact they are allowing people to renew as normal and anyone who had one in 2020 that expired since the parks closure to buy a new one is a good sign that they will return at WDW.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Can someone cliff note version for me why getting rid of AP’s in Anaheim does not mean they wouldn’t even think of doing it in Florida? Or is my concern it’s just a matter of time before they do so here justified?

I believe when you sift through numbers...and it’s been awhile so I’m doing this from memory...over 50% of the APs (and there are a lot more of them than in Florida) in Disneyland live within 2 hours of Orange County...

Disneyland is much more of a Regional location.

aps are sold to many Florida residents...but there is a thick cohort of Western Europeans (two week or more standard trips), southern state patrons and the most populated block of the US (Boston to Washington DC)...plus upper Midwest, Canadians, snow birds that buy wdw APs and still stay and eat it up on traditional style vacations in Orlando...

when chapek made his AP comments...they were much more tailored to Anaheim.

and then there’s this: DVC rooms in California? 71 units...

Florida?

4,600

comparisons are just not really there

 

[Trackmaster]

I think the upper tier AP may have the 3 fast pass in some form of current or modified FP or something to that effect.

I would rather have an the option of an AP version with fast pass than a water the water park option myself.

I mean... you're saying that you don't want to bring the hose and fill that bad boy up? Somebody has to do it. If you don't water the waterpark, do you really want to be sliding into a bunch of concrete?

 

[Trackmaster]

I believe when you sift through numbers...and it’s been awhile so I’m doing this from memory...over 50% of the APs (and there are a lot more of them than in Florida) in Disneyland live within 2 hours of Orange County...

Disneyland is much more of a Regional location.

aps are sold to many Florida residents...but there is a thick cohort of Western Europeans (two week or more standard trips), southern state patrons and the most populated block of the US (Boston to Washington DC)...plus upper Midwest, Canadians, snow birds that buy wdw APs and still stay and eat it up on traditional style vacations in Orlando...

when chapek made his AP comments...they were much more tailored to Anaheim.

and then there’s this: DVC rooms in California? 71 units...

Florida?

4,600

comparisons are just not really there

Its interesting, I was wondering before how Universal and Disney are doing so well in the Covid era despite the fact that international travel is gutted, and maybe people have been hesitant with domestic travel. Its hard to tell just how well Disney is doing because of the aggressive capacity limitations, but if you to go to Universal, you'd notice that demand is off the charts, and every day for the past 8 months has been packed (maybe with an exception here and there for an unusual day or for extreme weather conditions).

I'm starting to think that the explosive growth in central Florida is transitioning these parks from tourist destinations to parks that can legitimately rely on their locals like DLR has. I mean, Orlando will never ever be LA, and these resorts will always be more appealing to tourists, but I could see more of a 50/50 split in the future. This area is exploding with growth, and there's a huge theme park culture among the locals too. People talk about theme parks at the water cooler here like people talk about sports in regular cities.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Its interesting, I was wondering before how Universal and Disney are doing so well in the Covid era despite the fact that international travel is gutted, and maybe people have been hesitant with domestic travel. Its hard to tell just how well Disney is doing because of the aggressive capacity limitations, but if you to go to Universal, you'd notice that demand is off the charts, and every day for the past 8 months has been packed (maybe with an exception here and there for an unusual day or for extreme weather conditions).

I'm starting to think that the explosive growth in central Florida is transitioning these parks from tourist destinations to parks that can legitimately rely on their locals like DLR has. I mean, Orlando will never ever be LA, and these resorts will always be more appealing to tourists, but I could see more of a 50/50 split in the future. This area is exploding with growth, and there's a huge theme park culture among the locals too. People talk about theme parks at the water cooler here like people talk about sports in regular cities.

Easy there...Orlando always claims “explosive” growth like clockwork when a stock boom is underway...but then there’s tumbleweed when the ship crashes.

nothing will change if it happens again.

Orlando is low paid and tourist dependent (like most of Florida)...it’s not “big money”...it just rides the waves and the locals start getting proud of themselves

Stocks are on roids...now real estate is...easy there, Newt

and to be clear: Disney wants no part of a 50/50 split.

they want out of Towners with more disposable cash.

 

[Trackmaster]

Easy there...Orlando always claims “explosive” growth like clockwork when a stock boom is underway...but then there’s tumbleweed when the ship crashes.

nothing will change if it happens again.

Orlando is low paid and tourist dependent (like most of Florida)...it’s not “big money”...it just rides the waves and the locals start getting proud of themselves

atocks are on roids...now real estate is...easy there, Newt

Actually, at this point, fewer than 20% of the employment in Orlando relate to tourism and hospitality. The key industries now are advanced manufacturing, aerospace, defense, biotech, pharma, digital media, finance, innovative tech, life science, etc. Its an area that's desirable to move to, so a lot of tech companies are setting up shop here. People like the year round warm weather, close access to the beach, favorable taxes, and the fun stuff to do. We're also getting a lot of immigration from Latin America as well.

I could also see in the Florida being popular for Silicon Valley, Boston, and Manhattan remote workers to move to just to camp out, WFH, and only fly back to their brick and mortar offices for annual meetings. They've either been priced out and are salivating at the affordable rent, or can't stand the freezing winters.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Actually, at this point, fewer than 20% of the employment in Orlando relate to tourism and hospitality. The key industries now are advanced manufacturing, aerospace, defense, biotech, pharma, digital media, finance, innovative tech, life science, etc. Its an area that's desirable to move to, so a lot of tech companies are setting up shop here. People like the year round warm weather, close access to the beach, favorable taxes, and the fun stuff to do. We're also getting a lot of immigration from Latin America as well.

I could also see in the Florida being popular for Silicon Valley, Boston, and Manhattan remote workers to move to just to camp out, WFH, and only fly back to their brick and mortar offices for annual meetings. They've either been priced out and are salivating at the affordable rent, or can't stand the freezing winters.

...it’s not directly who works in polyester...it’s how much of the overall economy is driven by travel. “Most” is the answer.

if you want to do the “Orlando is booming” thing...enjoy it. I’ll be over here if you need me

 

[dovetail65]

Actually, at this point, fewer than 20% of the employment in Orlando relate to tourism and hospitality. The key industries now are advanced manufacturing, aerospace, defense, biotech, pharma, digital media, finance, innovative tech, life science, etc. Its an area that's desirable to move to, so a lot of tech companies are setting up shop here. People like the year round warm weather, close access to the beach, favorable taxes, and the fun stuff to do. We're also getting a lot of immigration from Latin America as well.

I could also see in the Florida being popular for Silicon Valley, Boston, and Manhattan remote workers to move to just to camp out, WFH, and only fly back to their brick and mortar offices for annual meetings. They've either been priced out and are salivating at the affordable rent, or can't stand the freezing winters.

I just looked it up, 30% is tourism related regular times, but your point remains valid.

It's the tourism that is the foundation that allows the rest of the economy in Orlando to grow though. I suspect that will always be the case. There are numerous articles with the facts and figures, here is one precovid article, there are more saying similar from 2021 too:

How Tourism Set the Foundation for Orlando’s Thriving Economy

Through continuous innovation and development, Orlando has secured its place as the “Theme Park Capital of the World,” but the impact of Orlando’s tourism industry doesn’t stop there.

news.orlando.org

 

[Trackmaster]

I just looked it up, 30% is tourism related regular times, but your point remains valid.

It's the tourism that is the foundation that allows the rest of the economy in Orlando to grow though. I suspect that will always be the case. There are numerous articles with the facts and figures, here is one precovid article, there are more saying similar from 2021 too:

How Tourism Set the Foundation for Orlando’s Thriving Economy

Through continuous innovation and development, Orlando has secured its place as the “Theme Park Capital of the World,” but the impact of Orlando’s tourism industry doesn’t stop there.

news.orlando.org

It was like that with every major city. They were either originally mining towns, Native American cities, shipping ports, railway hubs, etc. They might be known for sectors, but those sectors exist because it was already a city with infrastructure. Their original purpose has come and went, but people made it their homes and they became major financial hubs, so they remained as major cities for other reasons. If you notice, even the seats of government don't always become major cities. There are a handful of "major cities" that are also the capital, but there are a lot of "capital cities" that are lower tier cities, but basically operate as state capitals and not much else. So even when there are long-term legitimate reasons for a city to exist, it doesn't mean it'll catch on.

I think that Orlando just has a lot to offer and its winning over the young professionals and major employers. There's little reason to move to Chicago or NYC to freeze half the year and throw almost all of your salary towards rent these days. And same thing with Silicon Valley: the weather may not be a huge issue, but Palo Alto and SF just have antiquated infrastructures, laws that aren't favorable for business, and who wants to pay $3 million for an average, unimpressive house just to have your salary increased from $200,000 to $300,000 a year? If Silicon Valley had more room to grow and expand it would be different, but that infrastructure just really isn't allowing it. Since everything is virtual, you can put your shingle up anywhere, and the Silicon Valley address isn't what it used to be with many of the big time names fleeing.

I hope that we don't become an Austin, TX situation (Manhattan prices and displaced people forced into homelessness) down here, but Orlando is a city on the rise. Its also going to lead to Universal and Disney being able to rely on the locals more, and not even need the tourists as much.

 

[lightguy]

It was like that with every major city. They were either originally mining towns, Native American cities, shipping ports, railway hubs, etc. They might be known for sectors, but those sectors exist because it was already a city with infrastructure. Their original purpose has come and went, but people made it their homes and they became major financial hubs, so they remained as major cities for other reasons. If you notice, even the seats of government don't always become major cities. There are a handful of "major cities" that are also the capital, but there are a lot of "capital cities" that are lower tier cities, but basically operate as state capitals and not much else. So even when there are long-term legitimate reasons for a city to exist, it doesn't mean it'll catch on.

I think that Orlando just has a lot to offer and its winning over the young professionals and major employers. There's little reason to move to Chicago or NYC to freeze half the year and throw almost all of your salary towards rent these days. And same thing with Silicon Valley: the weather may not be a huge issue, but Palo Alto and SF just have antiquated infrastructures, laws that aren't favorable for business, and who wants to pay $3 million for an average, unimpressive house just to have your salary increased from $200,000 to $300,000 a year? If Silicon Valley had more room to grow and expand it would be different, but that infrastructure just really isn't allowing it. Since everything is virtual, you can put your shingle up anywhere, and the Silicon Valley address isn't what it used to be with many of the big time names fleeing.

I hope that we don't become an Austin, TX situation (Manhattan prices and displaced people forced into homelessness) down here, but Orlando is a city on the rise. Its also going to lead to Universal and Disney being able to rely on the locals more, and not even need the tourists as much.

Everyone is entitled to there own opinions. Mine is that I don't necessarily disagree with what you say, but I think you overestimate the draw of these things vs. other cities (almost all of which AREN'T Manhattan or Chicago or Silicon Valley) and underestimate the negatives (traffic, low pay, housing that's not nearly as cheap as it used to be, weather, etc.). There are lots of cities out there with lots of things going for them. Dial the enthusiasm about FL/Orlando back about 50% and I might agree with you. Personally, I'd never move there because I couldn't stand the hot weather. The 3-4 months of hot humid weather we have hear is more than enough for me.

And I think it's going to be a couple years before we really know what's going to happen with tele-work/remote work. Everyone says it's here to stay, but we'll see come fall and into next year. My office just said we all had to be back in person 4 to 5 days a week within 2 weeks- and we've been teleworking basically full time for the last 15 months. I had fully expected them to give us the option to keep teleworking at least a few days a week, but apparently not.

I don't want to sound negative about locals in what I'm about to say- it has nothing to do with Orlando specifically and I have no personal opinion on locals vs out of towners. But, Disney/Universal are NEVER going to rely mostly on local tourists- if they get to that point something is badly wrong. A local tourist will likely visit frequently, but probably has an annual pass, so they don't pay for tickets or parking, generally don't stay at a Disney hotel, they probably get a snack or maybe eat one meal in the park at most and maybe they by some merchandise every couple visits. The average out of town tourist going to WDW is coming for probably 5-10 days, a good chunk of them are staying onsite at a Disney owned hotel, they are generally eating 3 meals a day (plus snacks) at Disney owned restaurants and they buy tons of Disney merchandise to take home. The per cap spending by an out of town tourist is probably orders of magnitude more than the spending by a local. This is the exact reason they are ending the current annual pass program at Disneyland. Disneyland has literally millions of annual passholders and a majority of them live within a couple hours of the park. When they go, it's just a day trip or even just a quick afternoon or evening trip. From a business standpoint, Disneyland is trying to free up park capacity to make room for higher spending out of town tourists. So far that's not really a big problem at WDW, so hopefully AP's will be back. For Disney (and Universal...and every other park really), it's all about the per cap spending.

 

[Trackmaster]

Everyone is entitled to there own opinions. Mine is that I don't necessarily disagree with what you say, but I think you overestimate the draw of these things vs. other cities (almost all of which AREN'T Manhattan or Chicago or Silicon Valley) and underestimate the negatives (traffic, low pay, housing that's not nearly as cheap as it used to be, weather, etc.). There are lots of cities out there with lots of things going for them. Dial the enthusiasm about FL/Orlando back about 50% and I might agree with you. Personally, I'd never move there because I couldn't stand the hot weather. The 3-4 months of hot humid weather we have hear is more than enough for me.

And I think it's going to be a couple years before we really know what's going to happen with tele-work/remote work. Everyone says it's here to stay, but we'll see come fall and into next year. My office just said we all had to be back in person 4 to 5 days a week within 2 weeks- and we've been teleworking basically full time for the last 15 months. I had fully expected them to give us the option to keep teleworking at least a few days a week, but apparently not.

I don't want to sound negative about locals in what I'm about to say- it has nothing to do with Orlando specifically and I have no personal opinion on locals vs out of towners. But, Disney/Universal are NEVER going to rely mostly on local tourists- if they get to that point something is badly wrong. A local tourist will likely visit frequently, but probably has an annual pass, so they don't pay for tickets or parking, generally don't stay at a Disney hotel, they probably get a snack or maybe eat one meal in the park at most and maybe they by some merchandise every couple visits. The average out of town tourist going to WDW is coming for probably 5-10 days, a good chunk of them are staying onsite at a Disney owned hotel, they are generally eating 3 meals a day (plus snacks) at Disney owned restaurants and they buy tons of Disney merchandise to take home. The per cap spending by an out of town tourist is probably orders of magnitude more than the spending by a local. This is the exact reason they are ending the current annual pass program at Disneyland. Disneyland has literally millions of annual passholders and a majority of them live within a couple hours of the park. When they go, it's just a day trip or even just a quick afternoon or evening trip. From a business standpoint, Disneyland is trying to free up park capacity to make room for higher spending out of town tourists. So far that's not really a big problem at WDW, so hopefully AP's will be back. For Disney (and Universal...and every other park really), it's all about the per cap spending.

Its not really up to Disney though. Disney enjoys a lot of benefits from Florida and local governments that most businesses could only dream of. They get this because they offer dirt cheap APs and are willing to make the locals happy. If Disney becomes more of a nuisance than an ally, people will go to polls and vote in politicians who will enact legislation that could make life a nightmare for the park. Maybe people don't like the nightly fireworks, maybe people want the parks closed by 5 PM, maybe some permits don't get approved for rides, etc. Its pretty unheard of for a park to get the freedom that Disney has been given. Any change in the political atmosphere can make their business a nightmare.

That's why they need to bribe the locals with dirt cheap APs and interconnect their fate with them. The DLR no AP thing was strictly a temporary Covid thing. They don't want a political insurrection against the park.

 

[lightguy]

Its not really up to Disney though. Disney enjoys a lot of benefits from Florida and local governments that most businesses could only dream of. They get this because they offer dirt cheap APs and are willing to make the locals happy. If Disney becomes more of a nuisance than an ally, people will go to polls and vote in politicians who will enact legislation that could make life a nightmare for the park. Maybe people don't like the nightly fireworks, maybe people want the parks closed by 5 PM, maybe some permits don't get approved for rides, etc. Its pretty unheard of for a park to get the freedom that Disney has been given. Any change in the political atmosphere can make their business a nightmare.

That's why they need to bribe the locals with dirt cheap APs and interconnect their fate with them. The DLR no AP thing was strictly a temporary Covid thing. They don't want a political insurrection against the park.

Sorry, I've gotta disagree with you on pretty much all points here.

It's a two way street and I don't think you grasp the revenue that the Counties and the State of FL receive from WDW and it's related tourism and employment. It's the biggest single site employer in the Untied States and the taxable assessed value of the hotels and especially the DVC resorts is astronomical (think hundreds of millions to billions of dollars...each). It's not just a cash cow, it's a golden goose riding a cash cow down a street made of gold.

You may not know this, but somebody (Roy O probably) at Disney was smart enough back in the day to get the state to create a political jurisdiction (several I think) just for Disney. So they are pretty well insulated from the kind of nuisance complaints you describe (owning close to 40 square miles also helps) and unlike any other park in the US in that respect. I believe that the whole of the WDW resort is within the Reedy Creek Improvement District- that creates all kinds of low cost ways to operate and finance infrastructure, fire/rescue, police, utilities, roads, etc. Then they created the City of Bay Lake and the City of Lake Buena Vista. Each has only a hand full of residents- all of which Disney controls. I don't live in FL, so I don't know all the ins and outs of the political structure, but I do know a good bit about politics and jurisdictional structures in general. The only way anyone could vote people into office that could force Disney to do ANYTHING would be in County (WDW is located in 2 different counties and I'm not even sure what regulatory powers FL Counties have over cities) or state elections. And Disney is one of the largest political contributors in the State of FL. So while I guess it's possible theoretically, to say the kinds of things you describe are unlikely would be a huge understatement. Also keep in mind that in many instances it's unlikely that they could pass laws that only impacted WDW- at least that would stand up in court- as the bills would likely have to be structured in a non company specific way that would also hit Universal and probably Sea World. State level bills would probably also hit Lego Land, Bush Gardens and probably other smaller attractions.

But back to the main point related to AP's... They don't need to be A-holes about it. If the amount of local AP holders becomes a real problem, they will just do what they are doing at DL. Traditional AP's will be "reimagined" into a new program that in some way limits locals from attending at peek times and too often...and I'm sure price increases are part of the plan regardless

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sorry, I've gotta disagree with you on pretty much all points here.

It's a two way street and I don't think you grasp the revenue that the Counties and the State of FL receive from WDW and it's related tourism and employment. It's the biggest single site employer in the Untied States and the taxable assessed value of the hotels and especially the DVC resorts is astronomical (think hundreds of millions to billions of dollars...each). It's not just a cash cow, it's a golden goose riding a cash cow down a street made of gold.

You may not know this, but somebody (Roy O probably) at Disney was smart enough back in the day to get the state to create a political jurisdiction (several I think) just for Disney. So they are pretty well insulated from the kind of nuisance complaints you describe (owning close to 40 square miles also helps) and unlike any other park in the US in that respect. I believe that the whole of the WDW resort is within the Reedy Creek Improvement District- that creates all kinds of low cost ways to operate and finance infrastructure, fire/rescue, police, utilities, roads, etc. Then they created the City of Bay Lake and the City of Lake Buena Vista. Each has only a hand full of residents- all of which Disney controls. I don't live in FL, so I don't know all the ins and outs of the political structure, but I do know a good bit about politics and jurisdictional structures in general. The only way anyone could vote people into office that could force Disney to do ANYTHING would be in County (WDW is located in 2 different counties and I'm not even sure what regulatory powers FL Counties have over cities) or state elections. And Disney is one of the largest political contributors in the State of FL. So while I guess it's possible theoretically, to say the kinds of things you describe are unlikely would be a huge understatement. Also keep in mind that in many instances it's unlikely that they could pass laws that only impacted WDW- at least that would stand up in court- as the bills would likely have to be structured in a non company specific way that would also hit Universal and probably Sea World. State level bills would probably also hit Lego Land, Bush Gardens and probably other smaller attractions.

But back to the main point related to AP's... They don't need to be A-holes about it. If the amount of local AP holders becomes a real problem, they will just do what they are doing at DL. Traditional AP's will be "reimagined" into a new program that in some way limits locals from attending at peek times and too often...and I'm sure price increases are part of the plan regardless

…thank you. I didn’t have the patience to write the history lesson.

Orlando is a tourism town. Kinda similar to all of Florida. It’s not “up and coming” on its own and won’t suddenly turn the corner and flip the script. It’s mostly minimum wage…that the state and city swears isn’t minimum wage. It is what it always will be.

the locals don’t kiss Disney’s butt as in 1964…but they can’t put the screws to them either. The money is coming from out of town and they need Disney to funnel it to them.