One thing I have noticed is that after 10:00 am, the wait on the standby line is a good 20-30 minutes UNDER estimate...if it says 40 minutes, your wait will be at least one hour. I point this out to them every time I am there, and they really don't care.
I believe that is due in-part to the FLIK card system. If you don't know of it, every 5-10 minutes, they hand out a lanyard with a white card with a computer chip in it to a Guest entering the queue. Before giving it out, the CM swipes it past a reader on the wall. When the Guest gets to the front of the line, they hand it to the CM stationed there, who swipes it past another reader. The system then figures out how much time has passed between swipes and uses that time to calculate how long of a wait time to display.
This system works well if the wait times fluctuate gradually over the course of the day. But in an early-morning influx of Guests, the first few cards will make it through the queue rather quickly. But then when a TON of Guests flood the attraction (as happens with a popular new attraction like Soarin'), the cards after those first few will take longer and longer to get through the line. So by the time the first long-wait FLIK card reaches the front, the standby sign has been displaying 10-15 minutes for a while, because all cards up to that point HAVE been through in 10-15 minutes, and other cards are still waiting in line.
Make any sense?
About the only way around this system would be to either a) allow for manual change by a manager for situations like this, or b) have the CM issuing FLIK cards "pad" the time of the first few cards handed out in the morning by holding onto each card for 5-10 minutes before handing it out to a Guest, thereby artificially inflating the amount of time the computer thinks the card spent in line.
Also, Guests who are handed the cards and don't follow the requests of the CM can mess things up by not turning the card in at the right point (i.e. getting off the ride and THEN asking a CM "Who do I give this to?"), or not even turning the card back in at all... (I've heard stories of CMs confiscating FLIK cards from Guests out in the park)
-Rob