Short-term outlook of DVC resale pricing?

[Schweino]

Welp, it's getting close to that time of the year where the wife and I go back and forth on DVC again LOL. I am probably asking question's where the answer is "No one knows...", but open to y'alls thoughts and opinions at least.

1. With the current state of the economy and companies tightening their spending of recent, is there any data to see what Disney's ROFR acceptance rate has been month over month?

2. With the economy, in the short term (~6 months), will sellers see increased pain by accepting lower offers to get out of their contract due to decrease in offers and just accepting what was offered? I haven't seen this personally myself and I think the lowest I have seen SSR go is $115/per, but wondering if that could fall to say sub 110 and dare I say closer to 100.

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

Just what we did.... BAIL. That deal is not going to get any better.

 

[Club Cooloholic]

Welp, it's getting close to that time of the year where the wife and I go back and forth on DVC again LOL. I am probably asking question's where the answer is "No one knows...", but open to y'alls thoughts and opinions at least.

1. With the current state of the economy and companies tightening their spending of recent, is there any data to see what Disney's ROFR acceptance rate has been month over month?

2. With the economy, in the short term (~6 months), will sellers see increased pain by accepting lower offers to get out of their contract due to decrease in offers and just accepting what was offered? I haven't seen this personally myself and I think the lowest I have seen SSR go is $115/per, but wondering if that could fall to say sub 110 and dare I say closer to 100.

Well, technically all these contracts should hit a point where they start to fall by virtue of every year that passes the life of the contract and its use grows shorter. That said, in the short term, you could for sure see prices drop. If you want some reference, I bought some 5 years ago and AKL was going in the 104 to 114 range at the time. I am sure prices were even lower during the last recession. You get people who inherit the contracts and don't really want it, you get folks who bought years ago and maybe realize they don't go much and csn get back all their initial buy in and then some, so they are OK not taking a higher contract.
Just remember disney get first dibs on the contract and if it's low enough they might grab it.
Bur I don't think you will see a flood of contracts. People rent their points out now to help cover those yearly dues.

 

[CastAStone]

Welp, it's getting close to that time of the year where the wife and I go back and forth on DVC again LOL. I am probably asking question's where the answer is "No one knows...", but open to y'alls thoughts and opinions at least.

1. With the current state of the economy and companies tightening their spending of recent, is there any data to see what Disney's ROFR acceptance rate has been month over month?

2. With the economy, in the short term (~6 months), will sellers see increased pain by accepting lower offers to get out of their contract due to decrease in offers and just accepting what was offered? I haven't seen this personally myself and I think the lowest I have seen SSR go is $115/per, but wondering if that could fall to say sub 110 and dare I say closer to 100.

ROFR has fallen off a cliff except at AKL. DVC resale market puts out a blog post every month covering what was taken from them, and DVC.market tracks as contracts are published to the OC database. Worth checking both out (I’d note the forecast commentary on the DVC resale market blog is basically totally wrong every month so grain of salt but the data appears to be real).

Prices are already falling, but slowly. SSR is one of the more extreme examples because Disney’s ROFR went from 100 to 0 all at once; it can be had (without getting taken) for probably $20 per point less now than 6 months ago. VGC is the most extreme; the get in price there has fallen $80 in a year.

On fidelity the cheapest contracts for SSR are already under $105.

I think the most important data point is 2,257, which is the number of DVC contracts on the market right now as tracked by DVC.market. That’s about 5x the number of May 2021. So yes, prices will keep falling, slowly, until that number hits equilibrium (which appears to be ~1000 contracts on the market at once).

 

[Schweino]

Thanks @CastAStone - very helpful information. We shall continue our back and forth on this and I will keep an eye out on prices as 3-1 approaches (purchase date). Appreciate you!

 

[Schweino]

Tempted to throw an offer at $80/pt as the particular SSR contract I was looking at just crossed to 99 from 105.

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

We are in the process of dumping our last 30 points from DVC....

Nope, not getting every penny of our BRV investment back, but not displeased . Just happy to get out, get a decent return, and get AWAY with our shirts, and no more dues .

 

[Phonedave]

But I don't think you will see a flood of contracts. People rent their points out now to help cover those yearly dues.

I agree. With falling resale pricings, a large amount of paid off contracts, normal WDW rack rates through the roof, and plenty of established companies making it easier and easier to rent out points, people are thinking instead of selling they could break even for the year (or even make some cash) and hold on to it in case they want to use it again some time.

I have no plans to sell my contracts. (I still use my points) but on the other hand I absolutely have no plans to buy more.

 

[Tiggerish]

I agree. With falling resale pricings, a large amount of paid off contracts, normal WDW rack rates through the roof, and plenty of established companies making it easier and easier to rent out points, people are thinking instead of selling they could break even for the year (or even make some cash) and hold on to it in case they want to use it again some time.

I have no plans to sell my contracts. (I still use my points) but on the other hand I absolutely have no plans to buy more.

Same here. I've been making quite a bit more than my annual dues for the past three years by renting out my points.

 

[CastAStone]

Tempted to throw an offer at $80/pt as the particular SSR contract I was looking at just crossed to 99 from 105.

Over 350 more contracts have come on the market since we traded posts last month. It’s 2,617 now. I doubt you’ll get a bite at $80 (and if it’s that far below market Disney may take it) but if you wait 3-6 months, $80 seems very much in play.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Over 350 more contracts have come on the market since we traded posts last month. It’s 2,617 now. I doubt you’ll get a bite at $80 (and if it’s that far below market Disney may take it) but if you wait 3-6 months, $80 seems very much in play.

Aulani at $80 is in play but I have dibs.

 

[TheGuyThatMakesSwords]

Should you decide to sell? Our family JUST completed a small 30 point DVC sale... process was seamless (Ok, Notary Public's had to sign off on 4 forms) - but everything went VERY Well, and we have our cash.



After our gratuitous transfer to my children, and this sale? We are OUUUUUT of DVC, and probably the WDW parks, forever .