Seven Dwarfs Mine Coaster Opening 2014??

[flynnibus]

Hotel capacity has been down over the past few years. But I have a feeling that is mostly (if not all) economy and share-shift with some of the newer DVC resorts (particularly AKL Villas and BLT over the past 3-4 years). Not looking at the numbers but I believe they are down roughly 10% from their highs.

Well.. we were talking business, not just hotels.. which are tracked 'publicly' as occupancy rates.. which can't climb forever as they are percentages of course Occupancy rates can fluctuate and still have the business be positive growth. Hotel occupancy was last reported at 85%.. which is inline with %s reported back in '07 before the bust.. but rates as high as the low nineties are seen as well. Disney never wavered too much during the dip due to all their discounting and shuffling.. which is why they were seen as weathering the recession well... even if they haven't seen the growth their smaller competitors have seen.

 

[Cornballman]

Since the first 3 months of the year is technically Q2 for disney, wouldn't it make more sense then economically to open it Q1 (last 3 months of 2013) with calculated leaks of soft openings prior to that?? That way they get an attendance boost from locals wanting to ride first...and instant reservations for the first 6 months of it being actually open?

I guess the other aspect is CYA for the slow season...But to me, If they could push it to October with soft openings in late Sept it would help their books in 2013 and 2014...as well as open up resources for starting on other projects.

I sure hope this is the case as I will be there in sept 2013. I don't see how they could possibly take that long if parts are already being put up. They would have had to test most aspects before they even put anything up or the track layout would be suspect. You don't build then test after. You run tests and tests before then when its all up you make runs to confirm numbers. Not run initial tests after completion. That makes no sense

 

[Lucky]

Here's what I suspect the reviews will say when it opens.

Fun, short ride.
Not worth an hour wait.
Could've used more show scenes a la Everest.
It's fun but, "we waited three years for this?"
When will MK finally get a new groundbreaking E-ticket?

Yes, some people will say this.

I don't think its a question of "things only I can ride" but the whole expansion is the "newest, best" offering of WDW, and it doesn't even include an E-ticket. Perhaps a D at best in Mermaid.

I think the comments about what this ride is going to be are valid.

Fantasyland is designed for families with young kids, and the expansion will be a wonderful addition for them. E-ticket never meant thrill ride.

Sure, it would be great to get another thrill ride or two in WDW, but maybe they'd go better somewhere else like Avatarland instead of Fantasyland.

 

[Annielkd]

No, the concern is it hasn't been growing at the rates it needs to be and Disney has relied on too much discounting to prop up it's numbers. The bottom line has still be positive, and the attendance has generally been flat to positive. The problem is it has not been growing as fast and as 'at full price' like many would like it to be.

I REALLY appreciate your not jumping down my throat. You explained the situation without making me feel bad. Thank you! (This is sincere, I'm so tired of people being aggressive on here)

 

[Gregoryp73]

Well.. we were talking business, not just hotels.. which are tracked 'publicly' as occupancy rates.. which can't climb forever as they are percentages of course Occupancy rates can fluctuate and still have the business be positive growth. Hotel occupancy was last reported at 85%.. which is inline with %s reported back in '07 before the bust.. but rates as high as the low nineties are seen as well. Disney never wavered too much during the dip due to all their discounting and shuffling.. which is why they were seen as weathering the recession well... even if they haven't seen the growth their smaller competitors have seen.

Having worked in the hotel industry (as management) back in the day, this is a very good explaination. I'm wondering if they are allowed to include DVC membership or usage in this number as well? Technically the rooms are being occupied...

If so, I would think that would help boost numbers if there is a built in occupancy on a certain % of their rooms.

 

[Tom]

I'm surprised it will take that long. I can't believe WDW would start a new coaster without already having proved it's capabilities. If they did, poor decision. And how is going to look when everything else is open and they have this big project going on in the middle of everything else that just opened. I have seen alot of coasters built here in ohio, cedar point mainly, and they never took more than a year, and I get the theming aspect, but come on.

If you look back to the days of designing Disneyland, they were literally inventing (and patenting) the ride systems that are now used on most rides throughout the world. They "accidentally" invented the steel coaster when they were designing the Matterhorn. The fact that they're still trying to get the mine cars to sway just right isn't an oddity. They'll have it worked out in time.

FLE has been an eyesore for a long time now. The ugliest parts of the construction (all the steel and rock work) has been clearly visible over the walls since they started. Having an island in the middle of the park won't be much different. Also, much of the mine ride has been sunk into the ground, making it easier to hide.

The themeing aspect is a MAJOR difference between Cedar Point and WDW. At all these other venues, they design a coaster in a computer, a machine spits out the steel, they bolt it together, and you have a ride in a few months. WDW does the same thing, except they envelop the coaster in a building with faux rockwork, show scenes, sound systems, and novel ride vehicles. Do that in the dead center of an operating theme park, and yeah, it's gonna take some serious time.

Of course if they wanted to finish this project sooner they would...from what Lee has been saying fiscal quarter 2014 is the target date. The budgets get allocated quarter to quarter and having this open in the first couple months of the new year of 2014 gives a nice little attendence boost during a typical down part of the year.

This is the economic reasoning, they could care less that us fanboys are upset that this is getting dragged out.

This is also very true. While a project might cost $X Million, they can't take all of it out of the fiscal quarter in which the project begins. They have to cash flow it out over several quarters to make it work on paper.

Since the first 3 months of the year is technically Q2 for disney, wouldn't it make more sense then economically to open it Q1 (last 3 months of 2013) with calculated leaks of soft openings prior to that?? That way they get an attendance boost from locals wanting to ride first...and instant reservations for the first 6 months of it being actually open?

I guess the other aspect is CYA for the slow season...But to me, If they could push it to October with soft openings in late Sept it would help their books in 2013 and 2014...as well as open up resources for starting on other projects.

Opening a new attraction - especially one that's supposedly going to have a brand new ride system (the swaying cars), they'll want to soft open and real open when crowds are low, so that when it breaks down or they have difficulties, they can close the ride and work them out without angering entire mobs.

 

[flynnibus]

I think this budget stuff is misapplied information.

We aren't talking operational budgets here.. but capital investments funded out of money that has long been targeted for this type of expense. Money spent on 'investment' is generally tax favorable for a company, not a burden. The actual expenses to create the product are depreciated over decades.

People do this sort of 'stalling' to massage their cash flow situation. TWDC doesn't have a cash flow situation that would require a few million dollars in capex to be monkey'd around with at the huge expense of higher costs and greater guest impact. That's why I think all this speculation is just bunk. This isn't a small group managing their cashflow or quarterly PNL.. these are massive capex projects funded with their own money streams.

It's simply going to take them that long to build it based on how they work and the environment they have around them. Just look at other ongoing projects like BVS... they had total isolation, work during the day, and its still taking them ages just to build some store fronts.

The money itself is already spent over a long period simply because you don't spend all the money at once. Some is personnel, some is R&D, some is design, some is prototyping, some is construction design, some is outsourced materials, some is construction cost itself, some is finishing, etc.

 

[devoy1701]

FLE has been an eyesore for a long time now. The ugliest parts of the construction (all the steel and rock work) has been clearly visible over the walls since they started. Having an island in the middle of the park won't be much different. Also, much of the mine ride has been sunk into the ground, making it easier to hide.

It is a big difference when you now have thousands of guests walking through the area who would rightfully expect to get from one side of the new expansion area to the other without having to go out and around the long way. Everything we've been told has suggested that it isn't going to be an "island" but they're going to block off the walkway back by the giftshop in the BatB area so you can't get to TLM from there. Besides the fact that I just think the timeframe in general is too long, that is my only issue with the project. You can't enjoy the entire expansion as it was designed for over a year after it opens because they decided not to speed up the schedule for the Mine Coaster.

 

[filmy3]

They say they're opening by Christmas but the lady I talked to from Disney Dining said they were supposed to open March 2012 (BatB).

 

[devoy1701]

They say they're opening by Christmas but the lady I talked to from Disney Dining said they were supposed to open March 2012 (BatB).

ummm :lookaroun

 

[Tom]

They say they're opening by Christmas but the lady I talked to from Disney Dining said they were supposed to open March 2012 (BatB).

:ROFLOL:

A Disney Dining operator told you BatB would be open March 2012....which has come and gone. Interesting story.

 

[jjharvpro]

I mostly expected them to keep the 2014 date as the official opening. However, I still hold my opinion that it will open earlier. Because this ride is in the middle of the expansion, it's a pretty big, extensive attraction, and that anything can happen, they're giving this a 2014 date to play it safe.

 

[njDizFan]

I think this budget stuff is misapplied information.

We aren't talking operational budgets here.. but capital investments funded out of money that has long been targeted for this type of expense. Money spent on 'investment' is generally tax favorable for a company, not a burden. The actual expenses to create the product are depreciated over decades.

People do this sort of 'stalling' to massage their cash flow situation. TWDC doesn't have a cash flow situation that would require a few million dollars in capex to be monkey'd around with at the huge expense of higher costs and greater guest impact. That's why I think all this speculation is just bunk. This isn't a small group managing their cashflow or quarterly PNL.. these are massive capex projects funded with their own money streams.

It's simply going to take them that long to build it based on how they work and the environment they have around them. Just look at other ongoing projects like BVS... they had total isolation, work during the day, and its still taking them ages just to build some store fronts.

The money itself is already spent over a long period simply because you don't spend all the money at once. Some is personnel, some is R&D, some is design, some is prototyping, some is construction design, some is outsourced materials, some is construction cost itself, some is finishing, etc.

I do not assume my opinion is the truth and you do make some valid theories that contradict what other have been saying.

I have no idea how TWDC breaks down it's investment budgets. I'm pretty sure that TDO gets it's own budget but does it break down even further with MK geting it's own budget for these kind of projects? If so then it would make more sense. You are no longer talking a huge multi-billion dollar corporation but a much smaller fragment of the parent company. Spending 300-400 million(whatever the total budget) out of MK coffers is definatly a large expense... If this theory holds any water.

 

[flynnibus]

I do not assume my opinion is the truth and you do make some valid theories that contradict what other have been saying.

I have no idea how TWDC breaks down it's investment budgets. I'm pretty sure that TDO gets it's own budget but does it break down even further with MK geting it's own budget for these kind of projects? If so then it would make more sense. You are no longer talking a huge multi-billion dollar corporation but a much smaller fragment of the parent company. Spending 300-400 million(whatever the total budget) out of MK coffers is definatly a large expense... If this theory holds any water.

As they say.. 'follow the money'. The money for this isn't coming out of stockpiles of TDO MK dollars.. the money isn't being funded through lending by TDO MK assets. The company doesn't report financials based on TDO MK dollars.. Where all this really counts is at the parent organizations where financing and financial reporting all happen. And those are multi-billion dollar levels

What is more important to DIS and P&R division? Shuffling around some fractional percent of their total numbers for a quarter.. or being able to boast about the new potentials, what they can sell, and what they can convert into real dollars? I'll wager on the later.

 

[MichWolv]

I think this budget stuff is misapplied information.

We aren't talking operational budgets here.. but capital investments funded out of money that has long been targeted for this type of expense. Money spent on 'investment' is generally tax favorable for a company, not a burden. The actual expenses to create the product are depreciated over decades.

People do this sort of 'stalling' to massage their cash flow situation. TWDC doesn't have a cash flow situation that would require a few million dollars in capex to be monkey'd around with at the huge expense of higher costs and greater guest impact. That's why I think all this speculation is just bunk. This isn't a small group managing their cashflow or quarterly PNL.. these are massive capex projects funded with their own money streams.

It's simply going to take them that long to build it based on how they work and the environment they have around them. Just look at other ongoing projects like BVS... they had total isolation, work during the day, and its still taking them ages just to build some store fronts.

The money itself is already spent over a long period simply because you don't spend all the money at once. Some is personnel, some is R&D, some is design, some is prototyping, some is construction design, some is outsourced materials, some is construction cost itself, some is finishing, etc.

I agree.

The 2014 opening isn't driven by a need to spread the captial spending over time for budget reasons. Disney doesn't have a liquidity problem or difficulty accessing capital. There's no cash crunch that needs to be managed.

The 2014 opening is either because...that's just how long it takes to do what they're doing or (more likely I think), they are timing the openings in the way that they believe will generate the most bang for the buck in terms of increased attendance.

 

[Annielkd]

Personally, I think it would take a very long time to not ony create the area for this kind of ride, but then to make sure it's designed properly and then runs right... that could take a very long time. 2o14 isn't that far off. Even if it took them till this time next year to actually complete it, then work out all the bugs... that's a huge accomplishment. I think 2014 is a realistic date. We can all wish for earlier.

 

[Tom]

Personally, I think it would take a very long time to not ony create the area for this kind of ride, but then to make sure it's designed properly and then runs right... that could take a very long time. 2o14 isn't that far off. Even if it took them till this time next year to actually complete it, then work out all the bugs... that's a huge accomplishment. I think 2014 is a realistic date. We can all wish for earlier.

We can indeed WISH!

When they threw the buildings together for LM and BatB, I was convinced that they'd have those attractions completed in no time. But they fooled me - and I know personally that building shells go up fast and then appear to sit forever while interior work takes place...but the amount of interior work required for a Disney attraction is unbelievable. Not to mention the half acre of faux rock on the outside.

 

[njDizFan]

As they say.. 'follow the money'. The money for this isn't coming out of stockpiles of TDO MK dollars.. the money isn't being funded through lending by TDO MK assets. The company doesn't report financials based on TDO MK dollars.. Where all this really counts is at the parent organizations where financing and financial reporting all happen. And those are multi-billion dollar levels

What is more important to DIS and P&R division? Shuffling around some fractional percent of their total numbers for a quarter.. or being able to boast about the new potentials, what they can sell, and what they can convert into real dollars? I'll wager on the later.

So in your opinion, this has nothing to do with budgetary constraints...it is entirely based on the ability to actually construct the attraction?

Or perhaps marketing?

 

[PhilharMagician]

I do not assume my opinion is the truth and you do make some valid theories that contradict what other have been saying.

I have no idea how TWDC breaks down it's investment budgets. I'm pretty sure that TDO gets it's own budget but does it break down even further with MK geting it's own budget for these kind of projects? If so then it would make more sense. You are no longer talking a huge multi-billion dollar corporation but a much smaller fragment of the parent company. Spending 300-400 million(whatever the total budget) out of MK coffers is definatly a large expense... If this theory holds any water.

Yeah domestic Parks and Resorts only yielded 8,404,000,000 for total revenue in fiscal 2011. They did however spend 2,700,000,000 in capital improvements like DCA complete overhaul and FLE.

 

[flynnibus]

So in your opinion, this has nothing to do with budgetary constraints...it is entirely based on the ability to actually construct the attraction?

Or perhaps marketing?

Or simply how much they want to pay to build it. Working 7 days a week, or multiple shifts is expensive. Add in that you are working with artists and not just raw construction.. it gets even more difficult.

Marketing certainly has a play in terms of when things open.. but I think that is more on the smaller scale vs larger. Aka, aligning or staging things on a month or two.. not a year plus.

Unlike DL.. WDW isn't going to convince the average traveling tourist to make multiple visits to WDW in a year just to see 'what else opened now?'. DL needs to manage its openings to ensure people keep coming back quarter to quarter.. They need 'new' things to advertise to keep their marketing fresh. WDW on the other hand works on much longer cycles. They'll be touting the 'new' FL for years after it's open as the 'new' FL still.

IMO... the delay is simply how long its going to take for the project to complete. We know the plans changed to bring the coaster back into play.. so maybe the pre-construction work wasn't as complete as the rest of the project.. as well as the lead time necessary to get the train systems constructed from the vendor, etc. It may have simply started 'late' compared to the rest of the project.