News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[GoofGoof]

I think they’re counting on our short attention spans and the next “big story” to provide PR cover.

Desantis and the FL reps got their big ”loud” headline, they “took on” woke Disney, now they wait a few weeks for everyone to move on to the next story and quietly return everything to how it was behind closed doors.

Nothing changes except they get to campaign on the noise. Politics as usual, we’ve had the same half dozen hot button talking points my whole life, neither side ever fixes them even when they have supermajorities, without them they’d have nothing to use to vilify the other side, raise funds, and campaign on.

Speaking of campaigning, they need to make up for the lost political donations from TWDC since almost all of the bill sponsors and the Gov himself took contributions from the mouse in the past 2 years. Having a hot button, social issue like this to whip up the base is a good way to drive up donations.

 

[lazyboy97o]

It’s a way out of this situation which benefits both sides. Disney could stand their ground and go to court and maybe even take it all the way to the Supreme Court on the 1st amendment basis and I understand why some people would want them to do that. I think what happened here is frightening and sets a terrible precedent. That’s an all or nothing play so if it works they get to keep doing business as usual but if it goes that route and Disney loses in court then they may lose the special district and inadvertently crush the taxpayers of Orange County unless they agree to just start paying for the services directly instead of through RCID. It’s anyone‘s guess what the odds are of success in court, but assuming it’s 50/50 or less those aren’t great odds. If the bill survives the courts and the taxpayers get screwed the bill sponsors and governor will just blame Disney it’s a PR nightmare. Disney is facing 2 choices: 1 where there’s a 50/50 shot they get what they want and one where it’s closer to 100%. They will take the sure thing.

For Disney they really just want to continue doing business as usual and they want the negative PR to die down. Even if it’s not a large number as a percentage of total customers there’s no reason to alienate anyone unnecessarily. If they allow the politicians to claim a bogus win they get to keep their special district and maybe even improve the financial guarantees around a future attempt to dissolve it. For the politicians, they don’t even know what RCID is or what it does so they don’t really care if it goes away. Before the carp hits the fan and the taxpayers start screaming bloody murder they get an out, but that’s why I think they will need to add a sweetener to get Disney to agree.

The only leverage the state has on Disney is approximately $500M of future tax incentives Disney has coming to them for various past projects including those 2,000 jobs they are moving to FL. The Governor did say this is only the first step and they are looking at all options when dealing with Disney and everything is on the table. Some have speculated the Governor was implying they will look to kill those incentives. I consider this another nuclear option as every staye offers tax incentives to get large employers to stay and/or bring in new jobs. If they went after those tax breaks (especially after the fact) that’s a huge red flag to other companies doing business in the state. It could have long term negative impacts to the state and local economies.

There are a number of legal issues with the legislation before you even get to the First Amendment. Multiple entities besides Disney and Reedy Creek have standing for these issues not to mention those related to the other districts that possibly have their own unique quirks. The First Amendment is the last resort, though one that those involved continued to reinforce with their own statements.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I realize there’s history with the Florida Supreme Court but I’m not sure that Disney can win this argument.

Florida’s pledge to Disney (as far as I know) was in the law that it passed (i.e. the Reedy Creek Act). The legislature has wide-ranging powers to change existing statutes, and courts historically have given them a lot of leeway.

In recent years, courts have been nefariously fickle about how they apply the law, often selectively choosing which parts they wish to apply to fit the ruling they’ve already decided on.

Really, you have to look at the makeup of the current Florida Supreme Court and decide if you think they will be more sympathetic to Disney or the governor.

But I don’t think Disney has to win. Instead, all they have to do is stop the new law from taking effect until the political winds change.

As I previously suggested, once the dust settles, I fully expect RCID to exist pretty much as it did before.

Contracts and bonds are not just a state issue and the precedent is long established.

 

[mmascari]

I think they’re counting on our short attention spans and the next “big story” to provide PR cover.

Desantis and the FL reps got their big ”loud” headline, they “took on” woke Disney, now they wait a few weeks for everyone to move on to the next story and quietly return everything to how it was behind closed doors.

Nothing changes except they get to campaign on the noise. Politics as usual, we’ve had the same half dozen hot button talking points my whole life, neither side ever fixes them even when they have supermajorities, without them they’d have nothing to use to vilify the other side, raise funds, and campaign on.

I agree that this is what they want. But, they screwed that up too. They passed the actual law. Undoing that requires that they pass another new law.

If they call another special session for something else, then sneak undoing this into that quietly, perhaps. They probably would have been better off doing all the work right up to, but not quite passing it. Then, they could have just ignored it and let it die quietly in the dark.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think they’re counting on our short attention spans and the next “big story” to provide PR cover.

Desantis and the FL reps got their big ”loud” headline, they “took on” woke Disney, now they wait a few weeks for everyone to move on to the next story and quietly return everything to how it was behind closed doors.

Nothing changes except they get to campaign on the noise. Politics as usual, we’ve had the same half dozen hot button talking points my whole life, neither side ever fixes them even when they have supermajorities, without them they’d have nothing to use to vilify the other side, raise funds, and campaign on.

I agree…and that is a brilliant political move.

Political scientists (I was kinda trained as one…I’m just an engineer now ) will be studying this forever: how dumb people (mostly their advisors) go on camera and succeed saying stupid things - in spite of themselves.l?

It’s a mystery (it’s actually not…it’s a breakdown of the education system and the electorate it’s yielding)

But interesting nonetheless

 

[lazyboy97o]

Speaking of campaigning, they need to make up for the lost political donations from TWDC since almost all of the bill sponsors and the Gov himself took contributions from the mouse in the past 2 years. Having a hot button, social issue like this to whip up the base is a good way to drive up donations.

Taking on Disney has helped DeSantis in fundraising.

MSN

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I realize there’s history with the Florida Supreme Court but I’m not sure that Disney can win this argument.

Florida’s pledge to Disney (as far as I know) was in the law that it passed (i.e. the Reedy Creek Act). The legislature has wide-ranging powers to change existing statutes, and courts historically have given them a lot of leeway.

In recent years, courts have been nefariously fickle about how they apply the law, often selectively choosing which parts they wish to apply to fit the ruling they’ve already decided on.

Really, you have to look at the makeup of the current Florida Supreme Court and decide if you think they will be more sympathetic to Disney or the governor.

But I don’t think Disney has to win. Instead, all they have to do is stop the new law from taking effect until the political winds change.

As I previously suggested, once the dust settles, I fully expect RCID to exist pretty much as it did before.

It doesn’t matter…the longer this goes in court, the more it will be presented - cough - ABC - as “anti-business”

What elected official/court wants that label sitting on their head?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Taking on Disney has helped DeSantis in fundraising.

MSN

Bingo…and that was the second prong of the “attack”

1. Gerrymandering
2. Money


I didn’t even bother to watch the fundraising/PAC money news to flow in…I just assumed it was true.

Koch brother/Adelson nonsense…”warriors for Yaweh”

 

[kong1802]

Taking on Disney has helped DeSantis in fundraising.

MSN

Color me nonplussed

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Color me nonplussed

I couldn’t be
More surprised if I woke up tomorrow with my head sewn to the carpet

 

[networkpro]

I agree…and that is a brilliant political move.

Political scientists (I was kinda trained as one…I’m just an engineer now )

So was I with a BA and MA in IA. As you well know it's one of the only professions where there are very few bars to entry and no educational requirements. Engineering is much easier and you don't get fired for speaking ill of requirements, designs, or equipment.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So was I with a BA and MA in IA. As you well know it's one of the only professions where there are very few bars to entry and no educational requirements. Engineering is much easier and you don't get fired for speaking ill of requirements, designs, or equipment.

We deal in product…not eyebrow raising and pursed lips…

They didn’t tell me there was an alternative in my freshman “western Europe Polity” class…

I believe it was PolySci 014?

 

[Lilofan]

Taking on Disney has helped DeSantis in fundraising.

MSN

On the flip side, let us see how much profit parks and resorts can pull in the next quarterly earnings to impress Wall Street with see if this RCID retaliation move by DeSantis gives parks and resorts are boost in earnings with guests coming in droves to enjoy their vacation

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I agree but the issue here is whether the State of Florida has a right to terminate a special district. The Florida constitution permits the legislature to prevent a special district from issuing new bonds, which is a poison pill for most special districts.

Florida statutes allow the legislature to terminate a special district. And Florida statutes make it clear that any debt transfers to the county.

The bonds issued by RCID will get paid, whether it be by Orange County, RCID, or what replaces RCID. There is (IMO) no risk to those holding the bonds of these being defaulted on.

Is the Florida Supreme Court going to emphasize the state’s right to end a special district, or a promise the state made to (effectively) The Walt Disney Company in 1967?

Again, a sympathetic Florida Supreme Court likely will find some way to rule in the governor’s favor. This is why understanding the makeup of the current Florida Supreme Court is so important.

And again, Disney does not have to win this argument, only stall long enough for political winds to change.

It’s a dead end…and they never had any intention of seeing it through. It’s just for a headline and grab of cash.

There are 1,800 of them in Florida alone.

We need the Common Sense Fairy to explain this to everyone

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

On the flip side, let us see how much profit parks and resorts can pull in the next quarterly earnings to impress Wall Street with see if this RCID retaliation move by DeSantis gives parks and resorts are boost in earnings.

You’re hanging out on Etrade again, arent you?


I’m Honestly serious…you don’t have your entire life’s savings in Disney stock, do you??

 

[mmascari]

If the bill survives the courts and the taxpayers get screwed the bill sponsors and governor will just blame Disney it’s a PR nightmare.

I think Disney could win that PR battle. It would require more "fake news" than imaginable to turn "Politician did X, Disney said fine, county was hurt" into "Disney caused the problem". I mean, you're right, that's what they'll say. But, Disney certainly knows how to do messaging and communication if they put their focus on it.

If that’s the case then they go down with the ship. It’s a no win situation for the state. They could certainly go that route but Disney has no incentive to play along. If Disney sits back and does absolutely nothing a little over a year from now they see a major drop in tax payments and they no longer have to pay back almost a billion in debt they would have paid through tax payments. They lose the ability to finance infrastructure projects off balance sheet but thats a longer term issue. The impact to the government and local taxpayers would be immediate.

What I said earlier is still true then. There's a Disney accountant bean counter and a strategy person sitting in a room right now, trying to figure out the short and long term cost differences and impacts. The actual Disney impacts may be very subtle in there, and with very different results for short and long term. We assume that long term, it's better for Disney to have the control. But, maybe they're working out other ways to get the same thing without the control in the long term. In the short term, it certainly feels like dissolving the district eliminates a bunch of taxes Disney pays. On top of that, they may be working out strategies to avoid having those taxes added back to them in the long term without the district.

Disney could be trying to work out a strategy where they don't need the district anymore and that works out better for them. If so, they don't need to fight or negotiate anything. They could just walk away.

Which also means there are 2 reasons Disney has been so quiet. First, best to be quiet and not tip your plan early. Second, they may not know which plan they want yet.

 

[Lilofan]

You’re hanging out on Etrade again, arent you?


I’m Honestly serious…you don’t have your entire life’s savings in Disney stock, do you??

Not a chance , less than 5% holdings in Disney

 

[lazyboy97o]

I agree but the issue here is whether the State of Florida has a right to terminate a special district. The Florida constitution permits the legislature to prevent a special district from issuing new bonds, which is a poison pill for most special districts.

Florida statutes allow the legislature to terminate a special district. And Florida statutes make it clear that any debt transfers to the county.

The bonds issued by RCID will get paid, whether it be by Orange County, RCID, or what replaces RCID. There is (IMO) no risk to those holding the bonds of these being defaulted on.

Is the Florida Supreme Court going to emphasize the state’s right to end a special district, or a promise the state made to (effectively) The Walt Disney Company in 1967?

Again, a sympathetic Florida Supreme Court likely will find some way to rule in the governor’s favor. This is why understanding the makeup of the current Florida Supreme Court is so important.

And again, Disney does not have to win this argument, only stall long enough for political winds to change.

Removing the District removes its ability to own, improve and maintain the assets financed by the bonds. It removes the taxing authority that financed the bonds. The counties don’t have that taxing authority [right now]. Even preventing the issuance of new bonds could be problematic as it might hinder the ability of the District to improve and maintain the finances assets. There are specifics beyond just someone picking up the tab.

Heck, would any fees paid by the Department of Defense constitute a federal contribution of funds to District projects?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Not a chance , less than 5% holdings in Disney

Good…so you’ll still have 96% of your money by the time Slaphead is done with it

 

[flynnibus]

Not knowing Florida law, what is the difference between RCID and new districts? Doesn't seem like much and it won't functionally change what RCID does, but interested.

The way RCID is special is that by being enacted by the state explicitly, they were able to explicitly define what powers it has vs something that was created within a county's existing powers. What makes RCID special is not the individual powers, but the idea that all these powers are wound up together into a single entity and knowing the control a single company would have over it.

So district 1 may have powers A and B
district 2 may have powers C, and E
district 3 may juat have powers D

But RCID was assigned powers A, B, C, D, and E

RCID is special in its combined result.. and not so special in its individual powers.. does that make sense?

I haven't tried to research if there are individual powers that would need explict state granting now.. but that's generally how RCID is unique.. in how many thing it consolidated into one and the known single controller of it.