Predictions for Disney in 2023

[Elijah Abrams]

What are your predictions on what will happen at The Walt Disney Company in 2023? Here are mine:

• Elemental and Wish are released in theatres, and are box office successes.
• New plans for Magic Kingdom and Animal Kingdom, replacing the ones brought up at D23.
• DisneylandForward begins.
• Changes at the parks that win back guests, like Genie changes for example.
• Bob Iger continues cleaning up the mess Bob Chapek made.
• In order to cut expenses, get money back lost to COVID, and slash debt, Disney sells off the Fox assets they purchased.
• Disney increases their theatrical film output.
• Changes come to content production at Disney+.
• Walt Disney Animation Studios announces their next film after Wish will be 2D animated.
• Soul, Luca, and Turning Red get theatrical re-releases as an apology to Pixar fans.
• Disney loses its Hulu stake to Comcast sooner.

 

[dmeets]

• Elemental gets its theatrical release and performs decently, but Wish is delayed to at least 2024.
• Avatar 2 box office does not meet expectations; Avatar 3 continues as planned but 4 and beyond postponed indefinitely. James Cameron gives bitter interviews blaming comic book movies for dumbing down audiences.
• Marvel cancels Echo and Wakanda Disney+ spinoffs. Previously announced Vision series does not move forward.
• Park reservations will soon no longer be required for multi-day tickets, but will continue for single day tickets and Magic Keys/Annual Passes.
• Similar to Disneyland, Disney World will no longer offer a 365 day/year annual pass. Decision to be revisited pending results of the reservation/no-blackout day lawsuits.
• Josh D'Amaro and Christine McCarthy leave the company amid speculation they are no longer in the running for CEO. Jeff Vahle is promoted to chairperson of Disney Parks, Experiences, and Products.
• Disney buys Candle Media. Staggs leaves the company while Mayer becomes frontrunner for Iger's replacement.
• None of the D23 Blue Sky plans come to fruition except one: At Destination D23, Zootopia is announced to replace Dinoland U.S.A.
• No announcements made regarding future Disneyland resort expansions. San Fransokio wharf is quietly shelved.
• Kathleen Kennedy leaves Lucasfilm "to pursue other interests."
• Disney buys Comcast's stake in Hulu, announces plans to merge Disney+ and Hulu into a single streaming service.
• ESPN is sold or divested.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Heavy investment in People Eaters at the parks. Based on this logic:

- When the dismal earnings reports are discussed, people always talk about the fact that the parks are Disney’s most profitable division (often fundings their streaming service.)

- The only stance that makes sense with the current dynamic is a “parks first” approach. From a bottom line standpoint. However…

- Iger isn’t supposed to be there for long. Supposedly he’s an emergency interim CEO, right? I don’t see him wanting to take on a lot of debt to fund construction projects that would substantially build capacity. He won’t be there long enough to get the reputational benefit by the time such a project would pay off.

So, I see them trying to get more people into the parks and focusing on managing capacity with a bunch of extra shows, parades, paid extra hours (I could see that moving from special “parties” to an all the time thing.) and so on.

 

[Mmoore29]

-Sell Fox assets? That's a really stupid idea. You don't buy something like that just to sell it. Plus, Disney is a better home for Fox than say, Comcast. Disney gives the only real chance that Neill Blomkamp's Alien film will ever get made.

-Slash debt. Disney only has a debt load of $5.5 billion right now. Disney took on $10 billion back when it bought ABC, so this is nothing.

-Spin off ESPN and/or ABC? Incredibly stupid. These are complementary assets. ESPN has no place in betting. That sullies everything. ABC is a very complementary asset. You don't throw away a legacy like that.

-The fact that people are calling Avatar's box office results "Tepid" is incredibly dishonest. Because the North American receipts missed estimates by a measly $1 million. A measly million? And that's justification to slam the stock and drive it down? There's no honesty in these analysts and buyers anymore. There simply isn't.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

-Sell Fox assets? That's a really stupid idea. You don't buy something like that just to sell it. Plus, Disney is a better home for Fox than say, Comcast. Disney gives the only real chance that Neill Blomkamp's Alien film will ever get made.

Unfortunately, I think it’s starting to become a regret for Disney, given the damage it suffered from Coronavirus, Bob Chapek’s awful leadership, and poor box office numbers for Lightyear, Strange World, & most of the 20th Century/Searchlight films thanks to COVID weariness. It was bad timing. Disney especially may end up losing Hulu to Comcast, as they wouldn’t be able to handle Hulu's Live TV function. Hulu under Comcast's full control would be a boost for the cable/media company, and serve as NBCUniversal's replacement for Peacock.

 

[Mmoore29]

Unfortunately, I think it’s starting to become a regret for Disney, given the damage it suffered from Coronavirus, Bob Chapek’s awful leadership, and poor box office numbers for Lightyear, Strange World, & most of the 20th Century/Searchlight films thanks to COVID weariness. It was bad timing. Disney especially may end up losing Hulu to Comcast, as they wouldn’t be able to handle Hulu's Live TV function. Hulu under Comcast's full control would be a boost for the cable/media company, and serve as NBCUniversal's replacement for Peacock.

I seriously doubt that. These are all complementary assets and serve Disney well, just as much as ABC, ESPN, Pixar, Lucasfilm and Marvel. Getting rid of any one of them would be an incredibly stupid move to me, short-term gain for a later long-term loss.

Of course no one doubts Hulu's going to disappear. But the Fox content and mature Hulu content will be moved into Disney+, regardless of whether Disney buys out Comcast or the reverse. But selling any of these complementary assets, it's absurd.

Remember, Disney had twice much as debt as it currently does when it bought ABC in 1996. It managed to weather that, even with Eisner's poor decisions and the stock price stuck in the 20s by the end of his tenure.

Wait until the Avatar numbers really come in, and the stock will hit the $100 mark again.

 

[DisneyHead123]

Curious what people’s predictions for D+ are?

Continue to lose money but build a subscriber base?

Premium vs. ad supported memberships?

The return of premier access?

Rental / purchase content in the style of Amazon Prime?

My money is on the first with a slow transition to the last option.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

I seriously doubt that. These are all complementary assets and serve Disney well, just as much as ABC, ESPN, Pixar, Lucasfilm and Marvel. Getting rid of any one of them would be an incredibly stupid move to me, short-term gain for a later long-term loss.

Of course no one doubts Hulu's going to disappear. But the Fox content and mature Hulu content will be moved into Disney+, regardless of whether Disney buys out Comcast or the reverse. But selling any of these complementary assets, it's absurd.

Remember, Disney had twice much as debt as it currently does when it bought ABC in 1996. It managed to weather that, even with Eisner's poor decisions and the stock price stuck in the 20s by the end of his tenure.

Wait until the Avatar numbers really come in, and the stock will hit the $100 mark again.

Look, I’m trying to make predictions here for fun and everyone’s fun, but you’re making it unfun. Also, Disney sold off Miramax (and its IPs) many years after acquiring it in 1993, so if they can do that, they could do the same for 20th Century.

 

[Disney Irish]

Disney especially may end up losing Hulu to Comcast, as they wouldn’t be able to handle Hulu's Live TV function.

Not sure where you get the idea that Disney can't handle Hulu's Live TV leading to Comcast taking over Hulu. Disney has been under full control of Hulu for over 3 years now, and the Live Tv function has continued to work. Also D+ has been hosting a few live tv broadcasts such as Dancing with the Stars for awhile now. So its clear that Disney is setting up D+ to take over the Live Tv function when they merge Hulu with D+ in 2024.

Not to mention that Disney has been part of Live Tv for well over 70 years, so it has some experience.

Hulu under Comcast's full control would be a boost for the cable/media company, and serve as NBCUniversal's replacement for Peacock.

Disney owns 66% of Hulu today, and has full control of decisions. Comcast has 0% say in what Disney does with Hulu. This was part of the agreement that happened with the 21st Century merger with Disney.

In 2024 Disney will buy out the rest of Hulu from Comcast, the remaining 33%. And will own every piece of Hulu.

So this idea that somehow Comcast will get full control of Hulu is very far fetched.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

Not sure where you get the idea that Disney can't handle Hulu's Live TV leading to Comcast taking over Hulu.

Someone on the Anime Superhero forums thought of that notion.

 

[Disney Irish]

Curious what people’s predictions for D+ are?

Continue to lose money but build a subscriber base?

Premium vs. ad supported memberships?

The return of premier access?

Rental / purchase content in the style of Amazon Prime?

My money is on the first with a slow transition to the last option.

Suspect it'll go to the hybrid PVOD/S(A)VOD model that Amazon has setup with Prime.

 

[Disney Irish]

Someone on the Anime Superhero forums thought of that notion.

Whomever that was it appears they don't understand how Hulu is run today (ie under Disney control) and what is happening with D+ (ie Disney buying the remain stake of BAMTech last month for live streaming on D+). All leading to the merging of Hulu and D+ in 2024.

 

[Mmoore29]

Look, I’m trying to make predictions here for fun and everyone’s fun, but you’re making it unfun. Also, Disney sold off Miramax (and its IPs) many years after acquiring it in 1993, so if they can do that, they could do the same for 20th Century.

Fox isn't Miramax. Especially since Miramax was almost never profitable, especially under the Weinsteins. Fox has massive IP potential, far more than Miramax. So it's a very different case.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I expect a relatively quiet 2023…

I think the park reservations disappear, with no capacity restrictions they aren’t needed anymore and they are unpopular. It’s an easy bone to throw to fans.

I think the parks get desperately needed maintenance, Tron/Railroad open at WDW, core at Epcot, and Toontown in DL. With so much necessary maintenance I don’t see them devoting resources to build anything not currently under construction.

We get announcements, and maybe a start of construction, for Marvel expansion at DCA and Dino area replacement at AK.

I think D+ keeps chugging along, probably less new content, but they’re in too deep to turn around now. Possibly a merger with ESPN+ and Hulu under the D+ name but I could also see them keeping them separate or as a bundle to offer cheaper options.

I hope Wish and Elemental turn the studios fates around but am not overly optimistic.

I also expect price increases across the board, from park tickets, to D+, to DCL, to resorts, and everything else in between. It’s the one constant.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

We get announcements, and maybe a start of construction, for Marvel expansion at DCA and Dino area replacement at AK.

I still think DinoLand should be integrated into an Australia expansion for AK. Considering the "Blue Sky" concepts at D23 2022 were unveiled during Chapek’s Disney tenure, I bet that will be scrapped and they will go back to the drawing board.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

Fox isn't Miramax. Especially since Miramax was almost never profitable, especially under the Weinsteins. Fox has massive IP potential, far more than Miramax. So it's a very different case.

Then why buy Fox if Disney is NOT going to use ALL of the IP obtained in their parks, especially rides and attractions? (Avatar being an exception. That Anastasia mug is to celebrate the film’s anniversary, also. It'll get discontinued.) I am sorry, but your comments on this thread are straying into reality. We are trying to have fun here guessing.

 

[Slpy3270]

Far too many talk of asset sales in 2023 when we all know Iger isn't going to do that (unless his leadership really is threatened, which it won't be). Only times he ever sold was Power Rangers (which they never wanted to begin with; they only kept it because it was a gateway to the boys market....something the Marvel buyout quickly rectified) and Miramax (which he made sure to dismantle for parts before selling; the writing was on the wall when the Weinsteins left).

Then why buy Fox if Disney is NOT going to use ALL of the IP obtained in their parks, especially rides and attractions?

Universal only uses a fraction of their vast DreamWorks IP in their parks, which also includes the Classic Media stuff (only Casper the Friendly Ghost is utilized at Toon Lagoon in IOA).

 

[Disney Irish]

Then why buy Fox if Disney is NOT going to use ALL of the IP obtained in their parks, especially rides and attractions? (Avatar being an exception. That Anastasia mug is to celebrate the film’s anniversary, also. It'll get discontinued.) I am sorry, but your comments on this thread are straying into reality. We are trying to have fun here guessing.

The company is more than just Parks. They don't buy assets just to use in the Parks. IPs are used in many ways that make the company money, from licensing deals to content for streaming both internally and externally from the company.

So if you're going to have fun predicting then you have to accept that some of those prediction are going to get questioned when not based in reality.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

The company is more than just Parks. They don't buy assets just to use in the Parks. IPs are used in many ways that make the company money, from licensing deals to content for streaming both internally and externally from the company.

So if you're going to have fun predicting then you have to accept that some of those prediction are going to get questioned when not based in reality.

*Sigh* I feel like the users on this forum question things too much.

 

[Disney Irish]

*Sigh* I feel like the users on this forum question things too much.

Well what did you expect what going to happen when some posters are constantly stating things that aren't based in reality, such as Disney losing Hulu to Comcast and selling 21st Century assets.